Useless Stats -- most wins vs. closers

...a closer is two-and-a-half times more likely to be brought into the ninth with a three-run lead (75% of the time) than with the score tied (30% of the time).

Three-run leads are gimme situations; fans are heading to the exits. On the other hand, tie games in the ninth are the epitome of crucial situations. Yet most managers would rather use their closer with a three-run lead. What gives?

As Steve Treder documented so well last year, the save statistic has warped the way we think of critical situations. Instead of using closers in the most critical situations, managers use their closers in order to maximize their saves and not the team wins.

I'm not sure I agree with this. The "%age of Time the Closer is Used" line tracks the P-distribution for run differentials less than or equal to 1. In other words, managers do understand that tie games -- and even games when they're down by one run -- are situations for using the closer even though they aren't save situations. (hmm ... so why does that logic always seem to be abandoned by managers come playoff time? Anyhow ...)

It's clear that closers are overused in two or three run differential situations. Pitching the closer doesn't really compromise the game's outcome, but the closer gets a save.

It would have been interesting if he'd normalized the data by # of appearances. That is, closers were used in 80% of the games with a three-run differential and 80% of those with a one-run differential. But surely there are more one-run games than three-run games? In other words, exactly what fraction of an average closers' 70-80 appearances are "wasted" on high run differential situations?

"But is Gagne the most important player for the Dodgers? His injury scare made me think about what it means to be indispensible. I have a hard time bestowing such a lofty title on a guy who pitches only 82 1/3 innings, and when more than half of his hallowed save chances -- the two- and three-run varieties -- could be converted with minimal difference in success rate by a league-average pitcher. But that's more of an observation on the defined role of a closer than on Gagne, who has been terrific."

i'm pretty appalled that people are talking about k-rod for mvp, which i assume is because of the likelihood that he will break the single season saves record (as if breaking a record held by bobby thigpen is indicative of "best player of the year" or something).

Twelve saves in a month and a half isn't a sure thing, but you're right, he's been at best the fourth or fifth best closer in the league this year. And since the best starters this year aren't on playoff-bound teams, he'll probably get a lot of support for the Cy Young award.

hmmm, I brought this up last week and no one had heard K-Rod MVP talk!

If Cliff Lee wins 20 and the Indians stay below .500, he has a decent shot. But yeah, the Cro-Magnon writers will be hard-pressed to ignore a RECORD no matter how meaningless.

(otoh, Thigpen finished 4th when he saved 57, but the 3 guys ahead of him all won 20)

i'm still confused as to why teams bring in their best relievers at the beginning of the 9th inning rather than bringing them in when the other team has runners on base in a close game even if it's in the 7th or 8th inning

xp: I'm mixing Cy & MVP... isn't the Josh Hamilton "story" along w/ 130+ RBI likely to make him the prohibitive MVP favorite?

All of us who remember pre-Eckersley are confused too, ciderpress.

it's not as dramatic to bring trevor hoffmann in to hell's bells in the top of the 7th (i'm kind of not kidding)

And since the best starters this year aren't on playoff-bound teams,

Jon Danks! Jon Lester! Joe Saunders! #4, 5, and 7 in AL VORP!

oz (md): al mvp?

Rob Neyer: In the absence of a great candidate on one of the contending teams, don't be surprised if Josh Hamilton or even Francisco Rodriguez sneaks in there. Or Justin Morneau. Right now it's impossible to call.

Baseball Fan (Detroit): Rob, ever hear of Carlos Quentin?

Rob Neyer: Heard of him, momentarily forgot him. Yes, if the White Sox win the Central he's probably the No. 1 candidate.

Jon Danks! Jon Lester! Joe Saunders! #4, 5, and 7 in AL VORP!

Um, Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Justin Duscherer! #1, 2, and 3!

Away with your "statistics"!