Sosa traded to Baltimore

i dunno, i think sosa should have a lot of protection and a lot of opportunities to knock dudes in. even accounting for his declining power numbers, he's an improvement over their of/dh production from last year.

The Cubs have to hope that Nomar has a huge season and can stay healthy. If the Cubs can get Magglio and like Nomar he can stay healthy and return to form, they will be ok on offense. Hairston seems also to be pretty injury prone, so with Wood and Prior they are a walking advertisement for an HMO.

I have a feeling Hairston will be playing quite a bit in the outfield and Todd Walker will get playing time at 2b.

A potential opening day lineup:

1. Patterson CF
2. Garciaparra SS
3. Ramierez 3b
4. Ordonez RF
5. Lee 1b
6. Walker 2b
7. Hairston LF
8. Barrett C
9. Wood P

It doesn't look terrible, but there is still a real lack of a left handed power hitting in the middle of the lineup. The Cubs might also bring back Hollandsworth, who hit real well when Sosa was hurt last year and perhaps use him in a platoon. He is a lefty and has some power, but again is very injury prone. I'm thinking that LF and 2b might be platooned, as Baker did this quite a bit in SF. This is based on the idea that Magglio will sign with the Cubs, which may or may not happen at this point.

If the Cubs sign Magglio to a one year incentive contract like Nomar and neither work out in 2005, they will have a ton of cash in the bank to re-build in 2006 with a couple of big free agent signings.

The reason the Cubs missed the playoffs last year was because Wood and Prior were both hurt and had poor seasons, which led to an over reliance on a shaky bullpen. They still haven't answered the closer position, which cost them at least ten games last year. They look to me like a .500 team, unless the stars align and many players have big seasons.

I'm not feeling very optimistic about this season. In fact, I have a feeling the Reds could be a suprise team in the central this year if they can stay healthy.

o's opening day probably:

1. roberts 2b
2. mora 3b
3. tejada ss
4. sosa rf/dh
5. lopez c/dh
6. palmeiro dh/1b
7. gibbons 1b/dh
8. bigbie lf/cf
9. matos cf (or newhan in left if bigbie opens in center)

this whole idea that ponson is staff ace (even if that's what he was signed for) is kind of silly. the staff ace rodrigo lopez and he's shown, when healthy, that he's capable of wins in the high teens & an era in low-mid 3s.

who knows what pitching staff shows up?

i dunno if anyone has 'em, but i'd like to staff performance splits comparing wiley to ray miller. i know fat sidney made huge strides. bedard & cabrera are kind of hard to judge b/c they ran out of gas.

i'm curious to see how the rotation shakes out, to be sure.

re: the non-hairston components of the deal

"Fontenot hit .279 with 111 strikeouts and only 14 stolen bases for Class AAA Ottawa. Crouthers, 9-9 with a 5.03 ERA in Class AA Bowie last year, is regarded as the Orioles' fifth-best minor league pitching prospect."

As for replacing the HRs and RBIs, I'm not convinced there will be a huge dropoff. The Cubs' offensive woes of late are a result of no one taking a walk in front of the HR hitters. The Cubs lose two impatient solo home run hitters and sub in a (hopefully) more patient Corey Patterson, an everyday Todd Walker, and a healthy Nomar. I don't think they'll have too many problems scoring runs.

I'm guessing a large chunk of the saved cash will go into Aramis Ramirez's long term deal.

Needless to say, I'm elated to not have to hear about him on a daily basis anymore. Congrats, too, to Hendry on another smart move.

the Ks are definitely a concern, though even accounting for the free swinging ways of mora & tejada, they both had formidable & solid OBPs respectively.

No, I'd give that honour to Giambi. Before the roids admission, people could credibly claim that he'd suffered some flukey health problems and would be still be a force once he got over them.

Post-roids, it's obvious that he's suffering from freak degenerative conditions that are not uncommon in roid users, that he'll never be the powerhouse he once was, etc. The Yanks didn't even try to trade him, they tried to void his contract.

Sosa and Palmeiro will have the highest career HR total ever for teammates.

2001
GP: 160
BA: .328
OBP: .437
SLG: .737
HR: 64
HR/AB: 11.1%
K:BB: 1.32

2002
GP: 150
BA: .288
OBP: .399
SLG: .594
HR: 49
HR/AB: 8.8%
K:BB: 1.40

2003
GP: 137
BA: .279
OBP: .358
SLG: .553
HR: 40
HR/AB: 7.7%
K:BB: 2.31

2004
GP: 126
BA: .253
OBP: .332
SLG: .517
HR: 35
HR/AB: 7.3%
K:BB: 2.38

2005 (estimated using ForecastX Holt-Winters Double Exponential Smoothing Algorithim; non-park adjusted):

GP: 115 (411 ABs)
BA: .229
OBP: .293
SLG: .425 (.718 OPS)
HR: 23
HR/AB: 5.6%
K:BB: 2.88

i think my feelings on angelos are pretty well known, but i will say i am cautiously optimistic that sosa will work out okay. i don't have a huge problem w/ the denny bautista move.

i did notice that cal pickering had a pretty solid cup of coffee w/ the royals, though.

remember: although not nearly as productive as he was in cleveland, albert belle had 37 hr & 117 rbi and a .400 obp in his first season in b'more.

I would love to see a lighter Sosa go back to his basestealing ways. I would love to see a lighter Sosa go gonzo in Baltimore. I would also love to see Dusty Baker stab himself with his toothpick, though, so I might be biased. (I await violent reprisal from the ILBB Chicago faction.)

I think the whole thing with Sosa got out of hand. He may be a primadona, but it never should have gotten as ugly as it did. Sammy made the Tribune company a whole lot of money and probably helped keep the TV revenues and put a lot of people in the stands in the dark days around Harry's death and the strike. It started going wrong with the broken bat, got worse with the playoff loss and last year was such a total mess. The Cubs and Baker can pin as much as they want on Sammy, he definitely wasn't the only one that choked down the stretch.

Crimny...all you have to do is look at game six in that World Series a few years ago to know that Baker is completely suspect in managing a game. (Sorry SF fans...he is our albatross now.)

The thing that kills me is that they are not even getting younger in signing Burnitz, as that guy is 35 and coming off a season in the light air. If they didn't get Magglio, I figured the smart thing to do was start the season with what they had, maybe a rookie or someone will step up. Then if needed, make a move a month or so into the season. The Cubs front office has been somewhat successful in doing this the past couple of years.

The Cubs still don't have a solution in the pen, so what does it matter anyway? That was the problem last year and is still the problem now.

The three times the Cubs won their division is when they had a good lead off hitter; 84 it was Bob Dernier, 89 it was Jerome Walton and two years ago Patterson did well till he got hurt and then Kenny Lofton did great down the stretch. Maybe it is a coincidence, but perhaps not.

I think that banner is to show how much Burnitz might strike out and how scary it might be? Coming from a fanbase used to Sosa, I'm not sure what the fear is all about, but I appreciate the photoshop skillz.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Sosa hit 40 HRs this year or next, but I would be absolutely shocked if he regained his late 90s plate patience and pushed his OBP into the 380s range Sheehan mentions.

Hairston should definitely bat leadoff, though I don't think he has the patience to do so. Not that Patterson's any better. But, still:

Hairston LF
Patterson CF
Garciaparra SS
Ramirez 3B
Lee 1B
Burnitz RF
Walker 2B
Barrett C
Wood DH

What the hell are Chicagoans complaining about? (Besides the shitty ownership, and the shitty managerial staff, and Ditka not singing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" every single day.) If this line-up stays intact for 120-130 games (a lot to ask for), and they get at least 80-90 combined starts from their top pitchers (Z, Wood, Prior), they will be in a very good position.

(I borrowed the "if" from Peter Gammons, BTW.)

Well, see, that's what I get for not doing my homework. Is Hairston actually slated for LF, or is he going to be the Cubs' 2B?

*beane wanted their #1 draft picks and such.

as far as the hudson/mulder stuff, my understanding was that beane wouldn't budge on hayden penn or allowing a window for the o's to negotiate contract extensions...though it was kind of unclear to me how that last aspect was something the a's front office would have control over.