By David SchoenfieldPage 2
When Al Gore invented the Internet, I think he had the Baseball Hall of Fame on his mind.
There are Web sites pleading the cases for Jim Rice, Dale Murphy, Ron Santo and others. When Rafael Palmeiro reached the 3,000-hit level recently, everyone from Bangor to Bimini had an opinion on his Hall of Fame candidacy and used the Internet to voice it.
Fans care passionately about this. Thousands will make their way to Upstate New York this weekend for the induction of Wade Boggs and Ryne Sandberg. The rest of us will spend our spare time on the Web with this great debate: Which of today's major leaguers will end up in Cooperstown?
In 1955, when there were only 16 teams, 33 active major leaguers were playing who eventually made the Hall, an average of 2.1 players per team.
In 1965, there were 20 teams and 34 future Hall of Famers, plus Pete Rose -- 1.75 per team.
In 1975, there were 24 teams and 31 Hall of Famers (so far), plus Rose -- 1.29 per team.
In 1985, there were 26 teams and 21 Hall of Famers (so far), plus Rose and certain future inductees Rickey Henderson, Cal Ripken, Tony Gwynn and Roger Clemens -- 1.0 per team.
Based on the historical trends, about 40 currently active majors leaguers will be elected to Cooperstown eventually. So I've crunched the numbers, studied the tendencies, pulled out some crazy predictions and peered into the future.
In the next two days, then, we'll reveal our rankings of the 40 current players who will get their plaques in the Hall of Fame. We're starting with the easier ones today: the top 20. It really gets interesting Friday with Nos. 21-40. Those are the guys who make the greatest debates.
1. Roger Clemens and 2. Barry BondsThe only questions left with these two: Is Clemens the greatest pitcher of all time? And: Has Rick Reilly already written his "Why Bonds doesn't deserve to go into the Hall of Fame" column?
3. Greg Maddux His 1992-95 peak, when he won four straight Cy Young Awards with a 1.56 ERA in '94 and 1.63 in '95, matches up with the greatest peak value of any pitcher.
4. Tom Glavine Glavine has 269 wins and his career is winding down (wait, make that "his career is about to hit a brick wall"), so it appears he'll fall just short of the automatic 300-win barrier. No doubt, many electors -- especially those who used to pour down beers with Cy Young and Lefty Grove -- will disqualify Glavine because of that. After all, no starting pitcher with fewer than 300 wins has been voted in by the writers since Fergie Jenkins in 1991. That's insane. Glavine has won 20 games five times and has two Cy Youngs, finishing in the top three in four other years. He has a 2.47 ERA in eight World Series starts, including a one-hitter in the clinching game in 1995. He's a lock.
5. John Smoltz Smoltz promises to be one of the most heated Hall of Fame debates.
On the plus side:
One of the best players for one of baseball's great dynasties. Those players tend to get extra credit in Hall voting.
One of the clutch postseason pitchers of all time: 14-4 record, 2.70 ERA in 39 games (26 starts).
A Cy Young Award and a 55-save season.
Strikes against him:
Won more than 15 games just twice.
His lifetime winning percentage -- an excellent .580 -- is barely better than the Braves' .568 since he joined the team in 1988. In fact, since the Atlanta dynasty began in 1991, the team actually has a better winning percentage in games in which Smoltz doesn't get a decision than when he does. Granted, this isn't completely fair, since, in part, you're comparing Smoltz to two other sure Hall of Famers in Maddux and Glavine. Still …
Smoltz has had only four dominant, clearly Hall of Fame-type seasons: 1996 (24-8), 1998 (17-3, 2.90 ERA), 2002 (55 saves) and 2003 (45 saves, 1.12 ERA).
In the end, he'll end up being compared to the other great starter/reliever hybrid, Dennis Eckersley:
SMOLTZ VS. ECKERSLEY Player G GS IP H W L SV ERA ERA + Eckersley 1071 361 3285 3076 197 171 390 3.50 116 Smoltz 623 382 2846 2457 174 126 154 3.24 125
I was actually surprised Eck sailed into the Hall so easily on the first ballot. He only had five seasons where you just knew it was lights out, game over, when the A's led after eight innings (and five more where he superficially racked up saves but was pretty mediocre) and two great seasons as a starter. His ERA compared to the league average was as good as Smoltz's.
Add it up, and I say Smoltz gets in. He's 38, having one of his best seasons ever, and should get to 200 wins unless he blows out his elbow playing too much golf. He's one of the most intelligent and personable interviews in the game, which won't hurt. He'll likely stay in the baseball spotlight after he retires, probably cohosting "Baseball Tonight" with Al Leiter and Curt Schilling, and that'll help.
6. Randy Johnson An obvious inner-circle Hall of Famer, Johnson will be remembered with guys like Koufax, Gibson and Clemens, the ones we discuss in mythological tones 30 years after they've retired. Mariners fans like me will remember Johnson as the man who saved baseball in Seattle -- literally. If Johnson doesn't beat the Angels in that one-game playoff for the division title in '95, the Mariners don't get their new ballpark and the team moves to Florida. Which, come to think of it, might have saved baseball in Tampa.
7. Mariano Rivera How many consecutive postseason saves could Rivera blow and still be known as the Sandman? I say 14. He's been that good: 70 postseason games, 108.2 innings, 0.75 ERA (that's nine earned runs), 32 saves in 35 chances (and, yes, Red Sox fans, we're all aware of blown save No. 3).
OUT: Mike MussinaMoose, Mo's and Randy's Yankees teammate, has a resume similar to Bert Blyleven's -- a terrific, underrated and durable pitcher -- but he lacks the final exclamation points voters love: the 20-win seasons, a Cy Young Award.
Mussina also has a reputation for not being clutch in big games, primarily because the Yankees haven't won a World Series since he joined the team. But check his postseason performance with other top hurlers of his generation:
POSTSEASON ACES Pitcher GS W-L IP H BB SO ERA Schilling 15 8-2 109 79 22 104 2.06 Smoltz 26 14-4 199 161 66 189 2.70 Johnson 14 7-8 108 86 29 124 3.08 Mussina 18 6-6 119 98 28 130 3.16 Wells 15 10-3 113 102 25 79 3.18 Maddux 29 11-14 190 184 48 122 3.22 Martinez 11 6-2 79 63 26 80 3.40 Clemens 30 10-7 180 152 63 164 3.54 Glavine 32 12-15 201 176 80 137 3.58 Pettitte 30 13-8 186 201 52 118 4.05 Brown 13 5-5 81 76 31 71 4.30
Among those games: beating the Big Unit twice in the 1997 ALDS, allowing one run and striking out 25 in two starts in the '97 ALCS (but getting no wins), a 1-0 victory in Game 3 -- the "Jeter Flip Game" -- of the 2001 ALDS (Yankees trailed 2-0 in the series), and three scoreless innings of relief as the Yankees rallied to win Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS.
So he has pitched well when it matters. And as for the lack of 20-win seasons? Isn't 20 just an arbitrary number anyway? In the 1970s, there were 91 different 20-wins seasons; from 1992 to 2004, there were just 49. If voters are going to discount hitting performances in the Steroid Era, don't they have to adjust pitching performances as well? Mussina won't win 300, but he might win 260.
Still, I think he'll draw a short straw in the final vote. Although maybe when Ripken and Derek Jeter get on the Veterans Committee, the Moose will get in.
Speaking of which …
8. Derek Jeter He's nowhere near as great as Tim McCarver thinks he is, and nowhere near as overrated as Yankee-haters want you to believe. But he's a clear Hall of Famer, on his way to 3,000 hits and 2,000 runs scored, and you know, he plays the game the right way.
9. Alex Rodriguez Baseball loves its history. Consider the Top 10 pantheon immortals: Ruth, Bonds, Mays, Aaron, Williams, Cobb, Musial, Gehrig, DiMaggio and Mantle. Bonds is the only player from the last 30 years to crack the list. Does A-Rod add his name? I'm not 100 percent sure that will happen.
10. Albert Pujols I do predict, however, that Pujols will crack it.
11. Vladimir Guerrero Vlad already has Hall of Fame-caliber nicknames -- Vlad the Impaler, Vladdy Daddy -- and will eventually have Hall of Fame-caliber numbers, assuming he doesn't permanently ruin his back carrying Darin Erstad and Steve Finley into the postseason this year.
12. Miguel Cabrera Yes, it's completely ridiculous to project somebody who has just two years in the big leagues as a Hall of Famer, but that's the fun part of this exercise. Next to Pujols in the 25-and-younger set, Cabrera has clearly established the most high-end potential. Of course, in 1975, that list would have included Jeff Burroughs and Claudell Washington.
13. Ken Griffey Jr.How will we remember Junior in 25 years? As the guy who ranked alongside Bonds as the game's best all-around player for a decade, or as the guy with the bad hammy that prevented him from even bigger accomplishments? (See: Mantle's drinking, Koufax's arthritis, Sid Fernandez's waistline.) But anybody who watched his 11 seasons in Seattle will never forget the sweet swing, the grace in center field, the clutch home runs and that huge smile from the bottom of the dogpile in the '95 playoffs.
14. Manny Ramirez Prediction: Manny's Hall of Fame speech will be the shortest of all time.
15. Sammy Sosa Despite the steroid rumors, the corked-bat scandal and the leap ("Yes! It's going, going … ohh, no, it's just a fly ball to the warning track"), Sosa will be an easy first-ballot Hall of Famer. Certainly, few of his peers have been more famous. That said … Sosa's greatness is exaggerated. His run as a truly elite player only lasted five seasons, from 1998 to 2002. And, yes, his 2001 season (64 home runs, 160 RBI, 146 runs, .328 average, .737 slugging percentage) looks like Kelly Leak's Little League numbers. But prior to '98, he didn't get on base enough -- his lifetime on-base percentage through 2004 (.348) is barely better than the league average (.339) -- and even though he's only 36, he's looking like he may be done by 37.
OUT: Bernie Williams, Juan Gonzalez, Larry WalkerBernie has a lot of positive checkmarks on his ledger and has delivered as many clutch October hits as Jeter, but he didn't really get his career going until he was 27. And once he decided to become a recording artist, he stopped hitting. Gonzalez enters the Dale Murphy "How does a guy win two MVP awards and not get in the Hall of Fame?" debate. (OK, here's how: You never have another good year past the age of 31.) Walker hit .366, .363, .379, .309, .350 and .338 from 1997 to 2002. How does he not make it? Because he missed approximately 1,748 games through the years with various ailments.
16. Miguel Tejada Sportswriters drool over power-hitting, RBI-machine shortstops like they do when a woman wears a skirt in the press box. Miggy is on his way to his sixth season of 100 or more RBI. Only Joe Cronin (eight) and Alex Rodriguez (seven) have had more as a shortstop.
OUT: Nomar GarciaparraOf course, sportswriters once drooled over Nomar.
17. Mike Piazza The man hit .362 (!) in Dodger Stadium in 1997 -- and didn't win the MVP award. How is that possible? If he'd played in Coors Field that year (like a certain MVP winner did), Piazza might have hit .400.
18. Ivan Rodriguez Pudge wins with the arm, but Piazza wins with the bat and his underrated game-calling skills. And since the value of the arm is overrated, Piazza ranks better on my list. But both are clear Famers and join the Bench/Berra/Cochrane/Campanella debate over the best catcher ever.
19. Craig Biggio He has more than 2,700 hits and should reach 3,000, but he doesn't have to get to that magic number. This guy has done everything on the field: hit for average (four times over .300), hit for power (six times with 20-plus homers, twice with 50-plus doubles), steal bases (as many as 50 in one season), draw walks (.400 on-base percentage four times), score runs, win Gold Gloves, change positions, hustle (one year he grounded into zero double plays while playing every game), stay healthy … well, everything except clean his helmet.
20. Jeff Bagwell The inside of Bagwell's shoulder is a bigger mess than a postgame spread under attack from David Wells and David Ortiz. It's even possible his career might be over. I fear the nonthinking man's response will be: "Bagwell didn't hit 500 home runs, he played in the Steroid Era, he choked in the playoffs and he had that crazy batting stance, so I'm not voting for him."
Let's do a quick comparison of Bagwell to the post-World War II first basemen who have made the Hall, along with one who will:
BAGWELL VS. THE WORLD Player H R HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB OPS OPS+ Bagwell 2311 1517 449 1525 .297 .408 .541 202 .949 150 McGwire 1626 1167 583 1414 .263 .394 .588 12 .982 163 Murray 3255 1627 504 1917 .287 .359 .476 110 .836 129 Perez 2732 1272 379 1652 .279 .341 .463 49 .804 122 Stargell 2232 1195 475 1540 .282 .360 .529 17 .889 147 McCovey 2211 1229 521 1555 .270 .374 .515 26 .889 148 Killebrew 2086 1283 573 1584 .256 .376 .509 19 .884 143 Cepeda 2351 1131 379 1365 .297 .350 .499 142 .849 133
Bagwell is the best player of the bunch. Only McGwire tops him in adjusted OPS; only Murray can come close as a fielder; and none is in the same league as Bagwell as a base runner. Bagwell's 152 runs scored in 2000 ranks as the most in one season since 1950. He was such an alert, aggressive runner, he once led the majors in frequency of going from first to third on singles. He put up monster numbers despite spending most of his career in the Astrodome. Add it all up, and the ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia ranks him as the 21st best player (not including pitchers) of all time, entering the 2005 season.
Now, that's my case for Bagwell's enshrinement … I think I've persuaded the jury.
COMING FRIDAY: THE TOUGHEST CALLS
― gear (gear), Thursday, 28 July 2005 21:27 (twenty years ago)
― jaymc (jaymc), Thursday, 28 July 2005 21:53 (twenty years ago)
Bobby AbreuCarlos DelgadoJim EdmondsEric GagneTodd HeltonRickey Henderson (he counts as active, right?)Andruw JonesJeff KentPedro MartinezRafael PalmeiroAndy PettitteScott RolenJohan Santana (the Cabrera rule)Curt SchillingGary SheffieldIchiro SuzukiFrank ThomasJim Thome
― jaymc (jaymc), Thursday, 28 July 2005 22:26 (twenty years ago)
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Thursday, 28 July 2005 22:41 (twenty years ago)
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Thursday, 28 July 2005 22:45 (twenty years ago)
― Thermo Thinwall (Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 28 July 2005 23:11 (twenty years ago)
Me neither, but I was struggling to name pitchers that I thought they might make a case for.
― jaymc (jaymc), Thursday, 28 July 2005 23:37 (twenty years ago)
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Thursday, 28 July 2005 23:49 (twenty years ago)
*cougheckerslycoughcough*
Yes, closer, but big deal, he was still a starter...
― The Original Jimmy Mod (The Famous Jimmy Mod), Friday, 29 July 2005 01:06 (twenty years ago)
Solid column (esp on Bagwell, Nomar, and sadly Mussina), but I find Schoenfield's list of the "Top 10 pantheon immortals" in the A-Rod comment intriguing: no pitchers, and I think he's right. Why are great pitchers on the level of Mathewson, Grove, Seaver not regarded as godlike in the collective memory as sluggers, even someone with a sedate personality like Stan the Man? Can Clemens crack that inner circle?
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 29 July 2005 12:26 (twenty years ago)
― John (jdahlem), Friday, 29 July 2005 12:47 (twenty years ago)
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 29 July 2005 13:22 (twenty years ago)
― jonathan quayle higgins (j.q. higgins), Friday, 29 July 2005 13:51 (twenty years ago)
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Friday, 29 July 2005 13:55 (twenty years ago)
My point was that people get in for the sum total of their careers, not just blippy stats and fluke seasons. I just thought that saying no starting pitcher with < 300 wins since Jenkins was kinda revisionist history. But moving on...
― The Original Jimmy Mod (The Famous Jimmy Mod), Friday, 29 July 2005 13:59 (twenty years ago)
― John (jdahlem), Friday, 29 July 2005 14:10 (twenty years ago)
If you saw Pedro, 1997-2002, then you saw the equivalent of Koufax in his prime (possibly better, once you factor in the hitters era and pitching in Fenway).
― MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Friday, 29 July 2005 14:13 (twenty years ago)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/k/koufasa01.shtml
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 29 July 2005 14:27 (twenty years ago)
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Friday, 29 July 2005 14:28 (twenty years ago)
STATISTICAL KEY OPS = on-base percentage + slugging percentageOPS+ = Adjusted OPS, compares a player's OPS to his league average, with 100 being average and 110 being 10 percent better than average, etc.ERA+ = Adjusted ERA, compares a pitcher's ERA to his league average, with 100 being average and 110 being 10 percent better than average, etc.
OPS+ and ERA+ taken from Baseball-reference.com
Ahh, but … his career batting average-against is .209 (third-best all time behind Nolan Ryan's .204 and Koufax's .205) … his on-base percentage allowed is .269 (best-ever for anyone who pitched after 1920) … his lifetime winning percentage (194-79, .711) currently ranks No. 1 all time … he has three of the top 15 seasons ever for adjusted ERA (ERA compared to the league average).
The numbers overwhelm. But let's put it in terms even people who only watch "Around the Horn" can understand: From 1997 to 2002, Pedro was the most dominating pitcher in the game's history.
22. Curt Schilling The bloody sock, the three 300-K seasons, the three near-Cy Young Awards, the World Series MVP … but is it really possible for a modern pitcher who might not win 200 games (he's at 186), let alone 300, make it in? Schilling has all the extra intangibles -- the fame, the postseason heroics, the Dunkin' Donuts commercials -- that I think will put him in the Drysdale class as opposed to the Blyleven class. He gets the nod when a couple of controversial ballots from Florida push him over the top.
Vote: Cooperstown Cut Vote: Who would you send to the Hall of Fame? OUT: Kevin BrownA good pitcher, more valuable than many Hall of Fame hurlers, but he lacks the gold stars that Martinez or Schilling have. And he's not exactly a favorite of the scribes, so he won't get within spittin' distance of Cooperstown.
23. Mark Prior and 24. Roy OswaltMy top two Hall candidates among the 30-and-younger pitching set.
Prior's injuries, of course, raise a red flag, but I think they actually help his long-term future, since they served to limit his innings at a young age. A lot of pitchers have burned out from too many innings at a young age -- think Dwight Gooden and Fernando Valenzuela -- while many Hall of Fame pitchers didn't have heavy workloads until their mid-20s.
Oswalt, 27, is on pace for his second 20-win season, has had an ERA higher than 3.01 just once in his first five seasons, has terrific control and excellent strikeout numbers. Other than proving he can stay healthy for 10 more years and having zero recognition beyond the radar of fantasy players, he looks like a good bet.
25. Gary Sheffield I can't wait for all the "Gary Sheffield was misunderstood" columns in 20 years: Hey, Sheffield could have gone after that lunatic fan that one year in Boston, but he showed the true character of a Hall of Famer by not walloping the guy. He gets my vote!
Well, maybe not. But Sheffield, with his ability to hit for average and power (and have more walks than strikeouts), is one of the best 30 hitters who has ever lived. Adjusted OPS for Sheffield and Hall of Fame outfielders elected by the writers since 1970:
SHEFFIELD POWER Player OPS Mickey Mantle 172 Willie Mays 156 Hank Aaron 155 Frank Robinson 154 Ralph Kiner 149 GARY SHEFFIELD 147 Duke Snider 140 Reggie Jackson 139 Al Kaline 134 Billy Williams 132 Roberto Clemente 130 Carl Yastrzemski 130 Dave Winfield 129 Kirby Puckett 124 Robin Yount 115 Lou Brock 109
Of course, I'll take a wild guess that most of the voters won't be checking adjusted OPS when they fill out their ballot. That will leave them to contemplate his final career numbers (which should approach 500 home runs and 3,000 hits), his reputation and whether he really thought he was rubbing facial moisturizer on his bad knee. Some say Jim Rice's relationship with the press is keeping him out of the Hall; I don't think that's the case, and I don't think that will keep Sheffield out. I do think he needs to get 500 home runs to sway enough voters (he's at 435). Can he hit 65 more home runs? Yes.
26. Frank Thomas The Steroid Era means 500 home runs no longer ensures automatic induction -- and the Big Hurt is moving toward 500 more slowly than Bob Wickman moves through a buffet line. Ultimately, whether he scrapes past the 500 barrier should have no bearing on his Hall status; it is, after all, just a number. Thomas (along with Sheffield) is going to be a litmus test as to how much voters have learned from the Sabermetric Revolution: Do they understand that this guy was baseball's best hitter during the 1990s? Before Bonds became Bonds, there was no more feared hitter in the game (excepting maybe the late '90s blips of Mac and Sammy). He won two MVPs (and finished in the top three in three other years), led the AL four times in OPS and on-base percentage, hit above .340 three times and generally scared the hell out of opposing pitchers.
27. Rafael Palmeiro The Hall isn't Ruth, Mays and Mantle. It's also a whole bunch of other guys who weren't nearly as good as Raffy. And ultimately, the facts are that the Hall is about the numbers. Why is Dale Murphy out but Eddie Murray in? Why is Jim Rice out and Robin Yount in? How come Paul Molitor made it, but not Steve Garvey or Don Mattingly? Some had the reputation, some have the numbers.
OUT: Jim Thome and Carlos DelgadoThis one pains me, but it also shows how one's Hall of Fame potential can drop precipitously in one season. At the start of 2005, Thome was coming off four straight 40-plus homer seasons; and, despite advancing age (35 in August), he looked like a reasonable bet to reach 600 career home runs (he had 423). One bad back and one bad elbow later, rumors had the Phillies wanting to dump his contract like he was Len Matuszek.
Delgado's problem is he'll likely have to line up behind Jeff Bagwell, Thomas, Palmeiro and Thome for honors.
28. Ichiro Suzuki Page 2's Jim Caple addressed this issue a few weeks ago: "If Ichiro winds up with 10 .300 seasons, another batting title or two and 2,500 hits in this country, should we factor in his 1,278 hits and seven batting titles in Japan at least a little?" I'm predicting that Ichiro will continue to rack up 200-hit seasons in the U.S. (he's the type of player who should age well), that he will finish with 2,000-plus hits and that, yes, voters intuitively will factor in his dominance in Japan, as well.
29. Andruw Jones To begin with, he's the best to patrol center field since Willie Mays, with seven straight Gold Gloves and counting. He's 28 and has 282 home runs -- only Alex Rodriguez (381), Juan Gonzalez (301), Hank Aaron (298) and Frank Robinson (291) had more through the same age. Ten Gold Gloves? Six hundred home runs? I don't see how he can be denied.
OUT: Jim EdmondsEdmonds' 2000-04 peak rivals the best five-year runs of many Hall of Fame center fielders; but unless he has an astonishing late-30s performance, he'll fall into the Hall of Very, Very Excellent.
30. David Wright and 31. Hank Blalock Is this the golden age of third basemen? Alex Rodriguez, Scott Rolen, Eric Chavez, Aramis Ramirez, Troy Glaus and these two young sluggers. Third base is the most under-represented position in the Hall; it's time for that to change. Blalock, 24, is on pace for his second straight 30-HR, 100-RBI season and has made just three errors. Wright, just 22, is going to be a hitting machine.
OUT: Scott Rolen and Chipper JonesRolen has put together half a Hall of Fame career. But I worry that the back and shoulder problems he's had will ruin the second half.
Chipper's a tough call, following a subpar 2004 and injury-riddled 2005. Can he rebound and have a couple more big seasons? Will he stay at third base? I do know that it will help when Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine are on the Veterans Committee in 2036.
32. Jeff Kent In some regards, if Kent makes it to Cooperstown, he'll become one of the least-likely Hall of Famers ever. No hitter has fashioned a Hall of Fame career almost exclusively with what he accomplished after the age of 30, but that's what Kent is doing. His first big year came with the Giants in 1997 at age 29. Since then, he's had seven 100-RBI seasons as a second baseman (a feat matched only by Hall of Famers Charlie Gehringer and Tony Lazzeri). No player has hit more home runs as a second baseman. Only four other second basemen since World War II have won an MVP Award -- Jackie Robinson, Nellie Fox, Joe Morgan and Ryne Sandberg -- and all are in the Hall.
Still, Kent just doesn't feel like a Hall of Famer. He was never the guy you automatically punched on your All-Star ballot. Hey, let's run a chart and compare Kent to two contemporaries and some other Hall of Fame second sackers:
COMPANY AT SECOND Player H R HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB OPS OPS+ AS Kent 2013 1095 319 1273 .290 .353 .506 90 .859 125 5 Alomar 2724 1508 210 1134 .300 .371 .443 474 .814 116 12 Biggio 2737 1661 247 1035 .286 .372 .436 405 .808 116 7 Sandberg 2386 1318 282 1061 .285 .344 .452 344 .795 114 10 Carew 3053 1424 92 1015 .328 .393 .429 353 .822 131 18 Morgan 2517 1650 268 1133 .271 .392 .427 689 .819 132 10 Mazeroski 2016 769 138 853 .260 .299 .367 27 .667 84 7 Fox 2663 1279 35 790 .288 .348 .363 76 .710 94 12 Robinson 1518 947 137 734 .311 .409 .474 197 .883 132 6 Doerr 2042 1094 223 1247 .288 .362 .461 54 .823 115 9
The "AS" refers to All-Star appearances, not All-'Stache team, although Kent would make that in a landslide. Final conclusion: He doesn't look out of place in the above list. I think he needs two more productive years after this one, and he'll have to line up behind Roberto Alomar and Craig Biggio. But he makes it.
33. Trevor Hoffman Of the modern closers, only Mariano Rivera can match Hoffman's dominance and consistency. He's about to move past John Franco for second on the all-time saves list. He has saved 89 percent of his opportunities (a total surpassed only by Eric Gagne and John Smoltz for those with at least 50 saves). And he has one of the top three entry songs of all time (AC/DC's "Hell's Bells").
34. Francisco Rodriguez I expect K-Rod to thank me in his Hall of Fame speech.
OUT: John Franco, Eric Gagne, Braden Looper
35. Adam Dunn The crystal ball predicts 702 home runs and 4,685 strikeouts.
OUT: Bobby AbreuBut he'll make the Sabermetric Hall of Fame and the Fantasy Baseball Hall of Fame.
36. Johnny Damon Whoa … hold on there, Schoenfield … Johnny Damon? The Hair Hall of Fame, sure, but Cooperstown?
Yes, I'm surprised, too, since Damon has been an All-Star just twice and hit .300 just three times. (He's headed for a fourth.) Here's why he makes it: Damon will get 3,000 hits. If he does, he's as good as butter. The long-locked one has over 1,720 hits and should finish the season with around 1,800. He's 31. If he averages a conservative 160 hits per season (he's had more than that every year since 1998) through age 36, he's sitting at 2,600 and thinking Cooperstown. He's also coming up on his eighth season of 100 runs scored -- only 27 others have that many. And only 11 have done it 10 times (Alex Rodriguez would make it 12 this year). He's better than we realize.
OUT: David Ortiz, Jason Varitek, Trot Nixon, Bill Mueller, Mark Bellhorn
OUT: Garret AndersonAnderson has an outside shot at 3,000 hits. He's not a great player due to his mediocre on-base percentage and has only topped 30 home runs once, but that magic barrier makes him a candidate.
37. Johan Santana and 38. Joe Mauer I like that Santana wasn't overly used as a young pitcher. I like that he's already won a Cy Young Award. I like that in an "off" year he has a 154-28 strikeout-to-walk ratio. As for Mauer, he has, as they say, more tools than the Iron Chefs.
OUT: Alfonso Soriano and Mark TeixeiraIt's possible that Soriano will pass Kent someday as the all-time home run leader for second basemen. But keep in mind that he's already 29 (he was one of those who "matured" in the infamous Dominican Aging Scandal), is losing speed (from 43 steals as a rookie to 12 this year) and will eventually move to the outfield. Teixeira certainly has enormous long-term power potential -- if he stays with the Rangers. Eighteen of his 27 home runs this season have come at home.
39. Omar Vizquel The way I see it, the cynical old-timers who hate all the pumped-up modern-day sluggers will vote for Omar, a symbol of the good old days when baseball was pure, when Hall of Famers played for the love of the game, when you actually had to be a good fielder to make a major-league team!
Does he deserve it? The obvious comparison, of course, isn't to his power-hitting contemporaries, but to The Wizard, Ozzie Smith, another light-hitting glove magician.
First, the hitting stats:
OMAR VS. OZZIE Player H R HR RBI AVG OBP SLG SB OPS OPS+ Ozzie 2460 1257 28 793 .262 .337 .328 580 .665 87 Omar 2248 1175 68 748 .275 .341 .359 332 .700 85
Overall, pretty even. Both started out as terrible hitters (Ozzie hit .211 with 27 RBI in 1979, while Omar couldn't crack the .250 barrier until his fourth season) and eventually became good enough to post above-average OPS marks despite their lack of power. Ozzie became a little better at the plate, nine times posting an adjusted OPS of 90 or better; Omar has done that six times. Both were even traded early in their careers in lopsided deals (the Padres acquired Garry Templeton for Smith, while the Mariners acquired Felix Fermin and Reggie Jefferson for Vizquel).
In two other categories, Ozzie holds a more significant edge:
Gold Gloves:
Omar: 9Ozzie: 13
All-Star appearances:
Omar: 3Ozzie: 15
Ozzie is probably the greatest fielder at any position, ever. He was enormously popular with the fans. Vizquel only made three All-Star Games, but look who he was competing against: Ripken, Rodriguez, Jeter, Garciaparra and Tejada. Ozzie was battling Hubie Brooks and Rafael Ramirez for starting spots.
Vizquel might not be Ozzie, but that doesn't mean he won't make Cooperstown. He has the flair and reputation that go beyond numbers, and that should be enough to persuade the voters.
OUT: Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Rich HardenHudson hasn't won a Cy Young, but among this group he's had the best career so far (99-44 career record). He's 30 and hasn't been quite as good the past two seasons, and I wonder if he'll hold up. But all of these guys have early Hall potential, and it wouldn't be unexpected to see one of them end up in Cooperstown.
And, finally...
40. Todd Helton Hitters with .330 career averages usually find their way into the hallowed Hall.
So there you go. Print this out, save it and pull it out of your wallet in 35 years. We'll see then if this forecast was more accurate than the one I would have written in 1985. That one would have had Darryl Strawberry, Pedro Guerrero, Bret Saberhagen and Willie McGee as sure things.
― jaymc (jaymc), Friday, 29 July 2005 15:27 (twenty years ago)
― jaymc (jaymc), Friday, 29 July 2005 15:33 (twenty years ago)
HAHAHA
I hope he's right on Wright and wrong on Rolen and Edmonds.
― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Friday, 29 July 2005 15:34 (twenty years ago)
ok, i'd hate sheff's guts if he played for the sox, but he IS misunderstood, dammit. i think he's one of the most fascinating ppl in baseball.
― John (jdahlem), Friday, 29 July 2005 15:41 (twenty years ago)
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Friday, 29 July 2005 15:45 (twenty years ago)
― jaymc (jaymc), Friday, 29 July 2005 15:54 (twenty years ago)
― jaymc (jaymc), Friday, 29 July 2005 15:55 (twenty years ago)
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Friday, 29 July 2005 15:59 (twenty years ago)
― gear (gear), Friday, 29 July 2005 16:56 (twenty years ago)
― Garrett Martin (Garrett Martin), Friday, 29 July 2005 16:59 (twenty years ago)
― MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Friday, 29 July 2005 16:59 (twenty years ago)
― gear (gear), Friday, 29 July 2005 17:05 (twenty years ago)
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Friday, 29 July 2005 18:10 (twenty years ago)
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Friday, 29 July 2005 18:11 (twenty years ago)
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Friday, 29 July 2005 18:15 (twenty years ago)
Hoffman, Dunn, Damon are iffy, the young guys, who knows? I think he's wrong on at least Rolen and probably Abreu (who's bound to pick up more press/attention after that Home-Run Derby performance).
― milozauckerman (miloaukerman), Friday, 29 July 2005 18:26 (twenty years ago)
― John (jdahlem), Friday, 29 July 2005 18:33 (twenty years ago)
Yes. He was better off being hurt than pitching, you see, because, like, it limited his innings? So, like... Hmm...
― The Original Jimmy Mod (The Famous Jimmy Mod), Friday, 29 July 2005 18:33 (twenty years ago)
― milozauckerman (miloaukerman), Friday, 29 July 2005 18:36 (twenty years ago)
― Leeeeeee (Leee), Friday, 29 July 2005 18:54 (twenty years ago)
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Friday, 29 July 2005 19:01 (twenty years ago)
― John (jdahlem), Friday, 29 July 2005 19:15 (twenty years ago)
Okay, so there are 24 players on his list active in 1995:
Bagwell, Biggio, Bonds, Clemens, Damon, Glavine, Griffey, Hoffman, Jeter, Johnson, Kent, Maddux, Palmeiro, Piazza, Ramirez, Rivera, A. Rodriguez, I. Rodriguez, Schilling, Sheffield, Smoltz, Sosa, Thomas, and Vizquel.
8 other players active in 1995 are already in the HOF:
Boggs, Eckersley, Molitor, Murray, Puckett, Sandberg, O. Smith, Winfield.
Of remaining players eligible (active in 1995, now retired), these are locks:
Gwynn, McGwire, Ripken.
Are there 5 other players that will get in?
Possibilities: Alomar, Baines, Canseco, Larkin, McGriff, Raines
― jaymc (jaymc), Friday, 29 July 2005 19:35 (twenty years ago)
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Friday, 29 July 2005 19:36 (twenty years ago)
― David R. (popshots75`), Friday, 29 July 2005 19:37 (twenty years ago)
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Friday, 29 July 2005 19:38 (twenty years ago)
In a few years, Damon will be lost in the shuffle again. Regardless, if he puts together another three or four good years, the HOF talk will perpetuate, but make no mistake about it, he's the Dom DiMaggio of our era.
― MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Friday, 29 July 2005 19:39 (twenty years ago)
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Friday, 29 July 2005 19:42 (twenty years ago)
― MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Friday, 29 July 2005 19:45 (twenty years ago)
― Alex in SF (Alex in SF), Friday, 29 July 2005 19:46 (twenty years ago)
# Pete Fox (937)# Johnny Damon (922)# Jo-Jo Moore (913)# Augie Galan (910)# Kevin Seitzer (905)# George Gore (905)# Buddy Lewis (904)# Tommy Holmes (903)# Lonnie Smith (901)# Jack Tobin (901)
― MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Friday, 29 July 2005 19:47 (twenty years ago)
― John (jdahlem), Friday, 29 July 2005 19:54 (twenty years ago)
― gear (gear), Friday, 29 July 2005 20:15 (twenty years ago)
Hall of Fame Watch, 1995. David N. TownsendBaseball Journal
Hall ‘em in. You thought I'd forgotten about the Hall of Fame watch, didn't you? You should be so lucky. We've just had the announcement that nobody got elected to the Hall of Fame this year, unless the Veterans' Committee picks some obscure ancient hero or they decide to name an Official Scorer. Having failed when there was no substantial competition, we can now assume that Phil Niekro and Don Sutton will never get into the Hall, nor will former Red Sox Tony Perez, Jim Rice, or Luis Tiant. I'd been rooting for Rice and Tiant, although I figured they had little chance, but I must agree with the decisions on Niekro and especially Sutton. We must acknowledge, however, that the voters have established a new, and stricter, standard for enshrinement: 300 wins for a pitcher is no longer an automatic ticket to Cooperstown. Does this mean that 3,000 hits may also soon be removed as a Hall magic number?
In light of these developments, let's examine once again the candidates among present major league players who have the best shot at immortality. A lot has changed recently, with the retirement of numerous shoo-ins, and the impact of the strike upon some players' career totals, plus the usual ups and downs for various stars. Here are the categories, and the leading contenders:
1. The Heirs-Apparent to the All-Time Greats. As I see it, we are living through a special era in baseball history, repeating a pattern that has occurred only a few times before. With Frank Thomas, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Barry Bonds, we have 3 hitters who appear destined to be ranked among the All-Time greats, all playing right now in the prime of their careers. It remains to be seen how this trio will be rated by history when their careers are over, but at the moment they have to be considered comparable to the other great troikas of the past:
Cobb-Hornsby-WagnerRuth-Gehrig-FoxxWilliams-DiMaggio-MusialMays-Aaron-Mantle
It's been so long since we've had a group of overwhelmingly dominant players like this (Yaz-Rose-Reggie? Brett-Henderson-Schmidt?), that we might hesitate to believe that our present heros deserve to be ranked this high. But in terms of both contemporary performance and, I expect, career numbers, Thomas, Griffey, and Bonds are in position to be placed at the highest niveau of baseball legends of the 20th century (and probably beyond).
2. The Remaining Shoo-ins. Despite the recent retirements of Fisk, Brett, et al., there are still quite a few active players who should walk right into the Hall, even if the standards appear to be tightening. Assuming they all retire over the next 5 years, however, we would only average two definite inductees per year, and that's not too high. The names:
Cal Ripken. Duh. The more interesting question is whether he would have made it without the Streak. His career totals are not eye-popping until you remember he's a shortstop. Add in the Gold Gloves and the two MVPs, and I suppose he'd be in pretty good shape.
Rickey Henderson. All time base-stealing, run scoring leader; best leadoff hitter in history, with 235 home runs to boot.
Dave Winfield. Has passed the magic numbers of both 3,000 hits and 450 home runs, so they really have to put him in, even if he never won an MVP or batting title, and only hit more than 30 homers 3 times. In a way, he's like the Don Sutton of hitters, but I can't imagine the voters keeping him out.
Eddie Murray. Has all the credentials that Winfield has, even a tad better. And he's finishing his career on a winner (oops, I guess Winfield was on the Indians last year, too).
Paul Molitor. Well, everyone says he's guaranteed to make the Hall of Fame, and he's likely to reach 3,000 hits before he retires (211 shy right now). The .305 career average, 1,500+ runs scored, and nearly 500 stolen bases are pretty strong credentials, too, and the fact that he had his best years late in his career is definitely in his favor.
Wade Boggs. Okay, we've been through this before. If anyone still doubts that Boggs is a shoo-in, then I hope they don't expect Molitor to make it any more easily, because Boggs has had a much better career than Molitor: .334 vs. .305, five batting titles vs. none, much higher OBP, even a higher slugging average (.453 -.451). Boggs has had 200+ hits 7 times, Molitor 3 times. And so forth. All Molitor has is four extra years, and a lot of stolen bases.
Tony Gwynn. He definitely put himself over the top by winning his 5th and 6th batting titles the past two years, including the awesome .394 in 1994. His lifetime average now exceeds Boggs, .336 to .334.
Roger Clemens. The numbers look a little less impressive after a couple of down seasons, but the three Cy Youngs should weigh strongly, and anyone who was there knows he was the pitcher of the late ‘80s to early ‘90s.
Greg Maddux. Four straight Cy Youngs cannot be overlooked, even if his arm falls off tomorrow. I said the same thing about Clemens after three Cy's, so Maddux has to be a shoo-in.
3. The Borderline Candidates. This is where the Suttons and Perezes lived 5 years ago. Their failure makes it appear that most of these guys will fall short, too. The excess of sure things who are basically the same age will make it especially difficult for most of these guys.
Joe Carter. The RBI machine of the ‘80s, with 98+ for 9 consecutive years. Three more good years, and he might make it.
Andre Dawson. About 2,700 hits and 430 home runs, one MVP, universally respected. The definition of "borderline".
Don Mattingly. If the New York media have their way, he'll make it, but his numbers are certainly inferior to Rice or Perez.
Kirby Puckett. If Mattingly makes it, Kirby makes it. Otherwise, neither one does. Very similar career stats, leadership reputations, Puckett won two World Series, but Mattingly played in New York.
Tim Raines. The 777 stolen bases would have been more impressive if he hadn't played in Henderson's shadow. His other stats are all similarly sub-Rickey, although not by much. If he had one big, MVP-type year, he could make it, but that's not likely now.
Ozzie Smith. Will probably be hurt by coming up the same year as people like Murray, Henderson, and Molitor. Needs his incomparable glove reputation to be included along with his very respectable 2,400 hits and 575 SB.
Aloun Whitramellker. This two-headed monster, possibly retiring this year (along with, presumably, Winfield), might just slip in if they are the only candidates on the ballot in 5 years. Their nearly identical qualifications are really not that impressive, below guys like Mattingly and Puckett, but the timing could be right. It is obvious that they will either go in together or not at all.
The relievers: Lee Smith, Dennis Eckersley. Pretty soon, when Reardon (???!!!) comes up for election, the voters will have to decide finally whether the modern Closer deserves recognition in the Hall of Fame. Even if (!!!!) Reardon is turned down : o , they'll have to think twice about excluding Smith and Eckersley, the most dominant closers ever.
4. The Young Studs. Candidates with performance and potential, and young enough to keep it going. Technically, this is where Thomas, Griffey, and Bonds would go, although Bonds is bordering on the shoo-in category.
Roberto Alomar. Just 28 years old, and looks to be an All-Star well into the 21st century.
Carlos Baerga robble. Seems destined to play in Alomar's shadow, but actually has better career numbers to date, except for stolen bases.
Jeff Bagwell. Ditto Alomar and Baerga.
Mo Vaughn. His emergence last year in the face of all the great sluggers in the A.L. is impressive, and that MVP will stand out when history looks back. If he stays around another 9 years, he should be in position to reach 400 home runs (he would need to average about 31 homers per year).
5. The Outside Shots. If these guys hang around long enough, and/or turn it up a notch, they'll enter the Borderline category, and will have a chance at the Hall.
Albert Belle. If he hits 50 home runs a year, yeah. But otherwise he's going to have to make some friends among sportswriters if he doesn't want to suffer Jim Rice's fate.
Juan Gonzalez. After a couple of off years, he's no longer on track for 500 home runs, but he could get it back together and rejoin the power elite for the next 10 years. Chuck Knoblauch. Just a notch below the Alomars and Baergas, but rising fast.
Kenny Lofton. He got a late start, so that, at age 28 entering this season, he may not have the stamina to keep up with his younger contemporaries. But if he does, he's as good as any of them.
Tim Salmon. Off to a great start, would need to rise up a notch to compete with the Griffeys and Thomases for MVP honors. But he could be in position to make about 10 consecutive All Star teams, which would help a lot.
Matt Williams. Well, Roger Maris and Dave Kingman never made it in, but that doesn't automatically exclude Williams. If he gets healthy and socks 500 homers, he'll have a shot.
Gary Sheffield. Believe it or not, he's the same age (27) as Salmon and Baerga, younger than Alomar, with more career home runs than any of them. He's only had a couple of outstanding seasons, so he has a long way to go, and he must stay injury-free. If he were in the A.L., I'd want to buy him this year.
Fred McGriff. Needs 111 homers to reach 400, which he could achieve in 3 years if he's healthy and there's no strike. One of the greatest casualties of the strike, in terms of HoF credentials.
Mark McGwire. He's almost a carbon copy of McGriff: same age, same position, similar name, 277 homers vs. 289, comparable career OBP and slugging averages. There's no way he'll stay healthy enough to put up the numbers he would need.
6. Hall of Fame: Not!
Jose CansecoDarryl StrawberryCecil Fielder Randy Johnson (rouffle!)Edgar Martinez Jack McDowell
― gear (gear), Wednesday, 3 August 2005 03:25 (twenty years ago)
― MindInRewind (Barry Bruner), Wednesday, 3 August 2005 04:11 (twenty years ago)
― j blount (papa la bas), Wednesday, 3 August 2005 05:50 (twenty years ago)
― jaymc (jaymc), Wednesday, 3 August 2005 06:11 (twenty years ago)
hmm
― blair underwood: "man up" (omar little), Saturday, 23 May 2009 19:31 (seventeen years ago)
future hofers mark prior and hank blalock
29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones 29. Andruw Jones
― velko, Saturday, 23 May 2009 19:42 (seventeen years ago)
frank thomas on the "toughest calls" list, miguel tejada on the "in" list
― blair underwood: "man up" (omar little), Saturday, 23 May 2009 19:44 (seventeen years ago)
LOL in hindsight, but reasonable for 1995. Who could have predicted the rehabilitation of Rice's reputation?
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Saturday, 23 May 2009 20:35 (seventeen years ago)
what's really funny about that 1995 article is the prediction of tim salmon making 10 consecutive all-star teams.
― blair underwood: "man up" (omar little), Saturday, 23 May 2009 21:59 (seventeen years ago)
Tim Salmon was really good before injuries finally took their toll. In 1995 he was a good defensive RF with a great bat and fantastic plate discipline (and he had just put up a .330/429/.594 line that year). He was slightly old(er) though (26) even at that point so 10 consecutive all star teams is uh a bit enthusiastic. That prediction certainly looks better than oh let's say Hank Blalock.
― Alex in SF, Saturday, 23 May 2009 22:12 (seventeen years ago)
"Carlos Baerga robble. Seems destined to play in Alomar's shadow, but actually has better career numbers to date, except for stolen bases."
This is probably the most insane comment. Did anyone in '95 other than this guy actually think that Baerga could even hold Alomar's jockstrap? Yeah except for stolen bases, walks, defense (I'm going on GGs here so maybe Baerga was better and people were blind.)
― Alex in SF, Saturday, 23 May 2009 22:19 (seventeen years ago)
"frank thomas on the "toughest calls" list, miguel tejada on the "in" list"
But he points out how great Thomas was, and just wonders if writers will take notice.
― My vagina has a dress code. (milo z), Saturday, 23 May 2009 22:59 (seventeen years ago)
Those Carlos Baerga comments are defensible, he was definitely underrated during his best years and it's not too surprising that his numbers would go unnoticed in a lineup with Thome, Manny, and Belle. I don't remember anything about his defense (although he surely wasn't better than Alomar) but at the plate he was probably more valuable. His numbers were a lot like Michael Young's (who was also underrated during his best years) -- high AVG, tons of hits, really good SLG for his position. Both of them seemed to flame out at relatively young ages too, although Young is killing the ball again this season so who knows.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Sunday, 24 May 2009 08:33 (seventeen years ago)