BP's "Baseball Between the Numbers" book

TIME TO SETTLE THESE QUESTIONS ONCE AND FOR ALL

Is the P3C0TA report worth examining? Also, can I get it from one of you subscribers (ie, YSI plzkthx)?

Schnorrer! I don't see it on the BP site yet, but what's in the annual is plenty for me.

Quite awesome so far. "What If Rickey Henderson Had Pete Incaviglia's Legs?" reveals that Pete was about a valuable base stealer the year he stole 3 as Rickey was in his 130 year (bcz of CS).

"Why Doesn't Billy Beane's Shit Work in the Playoffs?" reveals that there is NO correlation between regular-season offense and postseason success. PREVENTING regular-season runs has a small correlation.

Great chapter on RBI and context ends with a table of the worst 100-RBI seasons since 1972 (only guys weith negative VORP: Joe Carter '97 and Tony Batista '04; Carter has 3 of the 8 least valuable 100-rib years).

i just got this and the 2006 annual the other day. oh, how far i have come. i was once such a naysayer.

I think a lot of naysayers are initially put off by the mindset of some followers - what I've read of/from the BP people, Beane, etc. makes them out to be less strident than those on their bandwagon.

I even saw one make an argument justifying Catfish Hunter's Hall of Fame status.

How did Carter have a negative VORP in '97, but still come out with a 1.4 WARP2/3? Seems like it would be impossible to be worth a win more than a replacement player while producing fewer runs than one.

What is a replacement player's VORP if he plays about 160 games? Is it 0?

That sounds like a koan.

haha!

From BBTN, by Jonah Keri:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4845

"Power Spikes have occurred more frequently in the Juiced Era, but the increase in frequency is almost entirely attributable to certain types of hitters. In particular, Power Spikes have become more frequent among hitters with average power--those guys who will hit more than 10 home runs but fewer than 30 in a typical season. Power Spikes have not become more frequent among hitters who have no power at all. It has never been very common for a hitter who has a weak, slap-hitting swing to transform into a power threat, and it is no more common today.

But there is also no increase in Power Spikes among players who were already very good power hitters, capable of hitting at least 30 home runs per year. Sometimes a very good power hitter will turn into an insanely great one, as Bonds and McGwire did. But this is no more common today than it had been previously. The players who have been most responsible for the Juiced Era home-run boom are the middle-of-the-road players: those guys who used to hit 15 or 20 homers a season and are now hitting 25 or 30."

Only one "power hitter" has tested positive for a banned substance in MLB:

Matt Lawton, OF
Felix Heredia, LHP
Carlos Almanzar, RHP
Michael Morse, SS
Ryan Franklin, P
Rafael Palmiero, 1B
Rafael Betancourt, P
Juan Rincon, P
Jamal Strong, OF
Agustin Montero, P
Jorge Piedra, OF
Alex Sanchez, OF

Evenly distributed across 6 pitchers and 6 batters. Additionally, there was a pitcher for the South Korean team who tested positive for banned substances in the WBC lending to my theory that pitchers (and measily speedy outfielder types) are the ones being overlooked in the steroid witch-hunt.

Nate Silver wrote a BP article yesterday evaluating the playoff teams based on the "secret sauce" for postseason success, that is:

A power pitching staff, as measured by normalized strikeout rate.
A good closer, as measured by WXRL.
A good defense, as measured by FRAA.

and came up with this result:

Twins 3, Yankees 1
Tigers 3, A’s 2

Mets 3, Dodgers 0
Padres 3, Cardinals 1

Twins 4, Tigers 2
Mets 4, Padres 1

Twins 4, Mets 3