Hall of Fame Ballot 2009

Mitchell (Oaktown): FYI, Dave Parker has the most MVP shares of any Hall-eligible player not yet elected.

SportsNation Rob Neyer: (12:59 PM ET ) Thanks, Mitchell. I knew Parker had done well. In fact, it's not at all apparent why a voter would support Rice but not Parker, as Parker has everything Rice has, plus better defense and a longer career.

Harold Baines
†Jay Bell
Bert Blyleven
†David Cone
Andre Dawson
†Ron Gant
†Mark Grace
†Rickey Henderson
Tommy John
Don Mattingly
Mark McGwire
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy
†Jesse Orosco
Dave Parker
†Dan Plesac
Tim Raines
Jim Rice
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell
†Greg Vaughn
†Mo Vaughn
†Matt Williams

†first timer

INDUCT RICKEY

Mike (NYC): Did you have to put one hand on the bible and swear to uphold the sanctity of the pitcher win and the RBI?

SportsNation Keith Law: I now have a tattoo of a heart with an arrow through it and the words "MOST FEARED" on a ribbon around it.

I'd be voting for Rickey, Raines, Blyleven, McGwire, Trammell. A few more on the cusp (Smith, Parker).

I'd go with your first five and leave it at that. Smith and Parker are too marginal for my tastes.

Rickey, Raines, Blyleven. I can be convinced on Trammel, I guess.

no mcgwire?

I'm in no hurry to induct McGwire.

I never understood the idea of waiting until later to induct a guy. His playing career is over. Either he's good enough despite his transgressions or he isn't.

Well I can't predict how I will feel ten years from now (maybe McGwire will seem positively pristine next to everything we'll find out about this era.)

I agree with most players it doesn't make sense though.

xxp I see your point, but I'd argue that we're too close to be able to tell if his absence is a glaring omission yet.

john, you don't want to argue for Dawson and his .323 OBP?

xxp I see your point, but I'd argue that we're too close to be able to tell if his absence is a glaring omission yet.

If you're ignoring the steroid issue (and I'm not saying that you should), I think he is already a glaring omission. He and Bonds were easily the best sluggers of that generation. He was a bad fielder, but at least he played the field better than Ortiz or Giambi. You could stick him out there and not worry about it because he didn't make a lot of bad mistakes ... he just had no range whatsoever.

Of course, Bonds wasn't really a slugger until he started with steroids, but he was on a Hank Aaron-esque pace before that... I guess you could make a case that Griffey was a better slugger than Bonds through 1998 or so.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/trammal01.shtml

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"He and Bonds were easily the best sluggers of that generation."

Uh no. Bonds was the best position player, period, of his generation (even prior to the outsized power years of the early 00s.) I agree that McGwire was much better (fielding and overall) over the length of his career than Giambi or Ortiz, but I don't think of those two guys as being close to HoF quality ballplayers either.

I didn't say Bonds wasn't the best position player of his generation, or critiquing Bonds in any way. I was merely comparing McGwire's principal skill with those who were as good at that skill, and Griffey and Bonds are the only real comparisons from that era.

Um Frank Thomas?

Albert Belle?

To name two guys who seem pretty comparable at slugging and were generally better (and healthier) than McGwire.

Neither of those guys were better than McGwire as a slugger. Not that SLG is the end all and be all, but the dude put up some gaudy numbers with a regularity that those guys didn't match. Thomas definitely was better than McGwire from age 20-30 though, and I suppose he might have been clean when he did it.

Agree he put up gaudy numbers, 24 pts of SLG (for Belle) and 33 pts (for Thomas) seem to put them in the same argument to me. Whatever. I agree the problem w/ McGwire is not the numbers.

which Vaughn will get more votes?

Of course, Bonds wasn't really a slugger until he started with steroids...

― Your heartbeat soun like sasquatch feet (polyphonic)

LOL @ this being brought up in a McGwire discussion... dude created the Steroid era as we know it.

"which Vaughn will get more votes?"

If either Vaughn gets a vote it's a travesty.

c'mon, Joe Sambito got a vote one year!

Rickey won't be unanimous, that's the travesty.

xxp i'd go canseco there

"Rickey won't be unanimous, that's the travesty."

No one is unamimous though.

I mean is Rickey not being unaminous any worse than Ripken?

LOL @ this being brought up in a McGwire discussion... dude created the Steroid era as we know it.

So what? I would vote for Bonds and McGwire if I had a vote. I don't see why it's not worth mentioning that Bonds was a different sort of HOF player before he started juicing. He was always better than McGwire in just about every respect, but I think McGwire was a bit more powerful, and I wonder what kind of slugging percentages McGwire could have put up if he had Barry's speed to turn doubles into triples and singles into doubles.

One thing that is amazing is Bonds' consistency ... he hit 25 or more home runs in 15 consecutive seasons! That is downright Aaronian.

"I wonder what kind of slugging percentages McGwire could have put up if he had Barry's speed to turn doubles into triples and singles into doubles."

That's like wondering what Greg Maddux would have been like if he could have thrown a 100 mph.

"One thing that is amazing is Bonds' consistency ... he hit 25 or more home runs in 15 consecutive seasons! That is downright Aaronian."

Bonds was better than Aaron even pre-steroids.

tbf, rickey was a lot better than cal xxp

That's like wondering what Greg Maddux would have been like if he could have thrown a 100 mph.

That ALSO is a fun thing to wonder about, thanks!

"tbf, rickey was a lot better than cal xxp"

Better? Maybe. A lot better? No way. Ripken was silly good. Look at what your average shortstop #s in the 80s, early 90s. And Ripken was probably just about as good a defender as all but the very best of those guys.

Either way, I can't see how anyone would not vote for either guy.

I think the highest BBWAA pct ever was Seaver.

What would he have been like it he had Jim Abbott's hand? I wonder. . .

xxp i'd go canseco there

― "made smashable" (k3vin k.)

you mean his teammate/fellow bash bro who threw him under the bus in multiple tomes available at your local book store?

mo vaughn rules ergo shd be in hof

i am all for leaving mcgwire out if only for the mental distress/body dysmorphia issues he inflicted on maddux and glavine~

i was saying it was he who ushered in the steroid era (or at least made it prominent), no?

Sheehan wrote a pretty OTM HOF article last week, where he argued that the eligibility period was too long and should be shortened to five or seven years. McGwire isn't going to suddenly confess to anything and so waiting until we learn more about what he did or didn't do is counterproductive. All the statistical information we need to evaluate the guys on the HOF is easily available right now. Waiting for 15 years just gives people more time to invent revisionist history and for voters to convince themselves that Jim Rice is a HOFer because he was a man's man who played in some utopian age where PED's hadn't been invented yet.

For the record, I'd vote for Clemens in his first year of eligibility.

"Sheehan wrote a pretty OTM HOF article last week, where he argued that the eligibility period was too long and should be shortened to five or seven years."

Does this really matter as long as the veterans committee exists?

perhaps, since the Vets have fucked up far more often than the BBWAA has.

also, the Vets may never elect anyone ever again.

A girl can dream.

LOL @ this being brought up in a McGwire discussion... dude created the Steroid era as we know it.

So what? I would vote for Bonds and McGwire if I had a vote.

The dude is good at one thing, and that one thing is massively augmented by his long-term use of illegal performance enhancing drugs? Fucked up.

McGwire isn't going to suddenly confess to anything and so waiting until we learn more about what he did or didn't do is counterproductive.

Depends - do they keep urine samples etc in baseball? There's plenty of retroactive testing going on in other sports so McGwire could get fingered by that any time.

The dude is good at one thing

He walked a lot too.

and that one thing is massively augmented by his long-term use of illegal performance enhancing drugs?

"massively augmented" -- you can't prove that, or even come close.

"illegal" is fuzzy too. No enforcement, etc. Semantics.

Yeah, but this isn't a court of law or even close. There is more than enough anecdotal evidence out there that McGwire both used "performance enhancing substances" (hell some reporter found andro in his locker in '98 IIRC!) and derived not insignificant benefit from their use. And frankly he's behaved like a horse's ass about these questions from the get go up to and including his "I'm not here to talk about the past" appearance in front of a grandstanding bunch 'o senators.

My opinion on matters of Rose or Jackson or McGwire is that they should probably be in the Hall (esp. Jackson at this point, guy is dead and buried fer crying out loud--Rose I can see wanting to block for a little longer cuz he's such a piece of shit) but that their plaques shouldn't gloss over their careers (or in Rose's case post-career.) But if someone thinks that the Hall is better off just excluding them altogether, I'm not going to get too peeved about it.

andro wan't illegal, was it?

THE_REAL_SHAQ Mark mcgwire shoulda got more than 27 percent of hall of fame votes, Come on now about 14 hours ago from txt

"This isn't exactly true -- he was caught 42 times, which still makes for a success rate above 75%. "

My understanding is that the more times you get caught the higher the threshold for the success rate has to be. I think there is a piece in BB Between The #s on this (it's packed so I can't check) comparing Rickey's 82 season with Pete Incaviglia's 86 season (where he stole one base and got caught twice) and the latter's was actually more valuable on the basepath because he gave away 40 less outs.

70 - 75% is supposed to be the break-even point for SB %ages, but that's a "global" number that doesn't take into account (IMO) the value of having *one* guy who is capable of stealing 100+ bases at a 75% success rate. I wouldn't mind reading that article though, if you can find it.

btw, Raines' career SB%: .847 (best unless you lower the #attempts, where only Beltran leads him).

Seamhedas poll 'elects' only Rickey:

http://seamheads.com/blog/2009/01/12/2009-hall-of-fame-vote-us-vs-them/

i'd be curious about that rickey v incaviglia thing because i'd imagine rickey's 130 sbs led directly to a large number of his 119 runs.

Trammell had a career adjusted OPS+ of 110, which is pretty good for a pre-1995 shortstop. Barry Larkin 116, Pee Wee Reese 99, Phil Rizzuto 93.

Rickey also got on base roughly 70 more times than Incaviglia (RH '82 vs PI '86 seasons). Guessing Rickey's PAs were more numerous though.

And it obviously cannot be measured statistically, but it had to be considerably easier for the pitcher, catcher, and infielders to concentrate on the hitter with Incaviglia rather than Henderson on base.

I'm not buying into the stathead hype for Trammell.

Still bitter about 1987. (But, taking homeremotionism out of it, I don't feel all that strongly about Trammell.)

It definitely wasn't easier to concentrate on Incaviglia.

http://www.joesportsfan.com/jsfpics/cards/peteincaviglia.jpg

so glad for jimmy rice - the third south carolinian elected to the hall!

(and glad for me: i've got his autograph on the same baseball as clemens and johnny pesky)

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9049532/Forget-OBP,-Dawson%27s-still-a-Hall-of-Famer

http://www.andredawson8.com/images/Layout-A.jpg

http://www.andredawson8.com/images/ppi_034a.jpg

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3078/2450962664_cdd44410dc.jpg?v=0

'when i hit a ball over the fence, i hit it over a tru link fence'

But, taking homereroticism out of it, I don't feel all that strongly about Trammell.

Or that, yeah.

"i'd be curious about that rickey v incaviglia thing because i'd imagine rickey's 130 sbs led directly to a large number of his 119 runs."

Getting on base 40% of the time and being lucky enough to have someone behind him able to drive him in led to the 119 runs.

dan meyer and tony armas are the real heroes here

"Rickey also got on base roughly 70 more times than Incaviglia (RH '82 vs PI '86 seasons). Guessing Rickey's PAs were more numerous though."

Note the comparison is considering SOLELY baserunning. Even making 42 outs getting caught stealing RIckey's 1982 season was better than any season Pete played.

Here's the piece btw.

http://books.google.com/books?id=uxdvwQdXbboC&pg=PA112&lpg=PA112&dq=Rickey+vs.+Incaviglia&source=web&ots=JAu02b4K74&sig=BknK-0tsL-kYufVds_y6dz3dwLE&hl=en&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=1&ct=result#PPA113,M1

excellent link Alex! i may have to read that book.

cankles, that stuff goes in Dumbass thread.

Tracer loves Democrats and third-rate Hall of Famers!

This is still the modern HOF vote that amazes me:

http://web.baseballhalloffame.org/playerVoting.do?playerId=115130

i thought he made a good argument for dawson! cool nickname, 8 GGs, plenty of homers & RBI, stole some bases.... had it all basically!

As Keith Law would say, "$5."

Ted Williams is spouting off saltily in Hell at all these dummies claiming no one knew about OBP before Moneyball

lol wait... why is ted williams in hell?

he was pretty much a dick

dick how? did he beat up his old lady, or was he just kind of a dude who wasn't nice?

nm i just read his wikipedia... so he didnt tip his cap to the fans???? yeah definately in hell!!!

Absent father, threw ball at fan in the stands, cranky political reactionary, etc. (But lighten up.)

or read something a little longer:

http://www.amazon.com/Ted-Williams-Biography-American-Hero/dp/0385507488

On the bright side, he was first HOF inductee to lobby for Negro League players' eligibility in his Cooperstown speech (1966).

btw who is Joe Gordon

new Veterans Committe inductee, long-dead Yankee 2b of the '40s. Baseball Reference is yr friend:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/g/gordojo01.shtml

ya i was just lookin at his BR page and was thinkin 'doesnt sound that great, why'd they let him in'

Main arguments against him are short career and his best season in '42 was against war-depleted competition.

ya actually i think all things considered ted williams wasnt that bad of a guy, certainly better than dimaggio, i mean, as a person

why'd they let him in'

played for the yankees

i want to know who voted for jesse orosco? was it one of you?

xxp: Hard to say, neither of em were a day at the beach (and neither publicly self-aware as Mantle at the end of his life)

Joe McCarthy (the Yankee-Red Sox mgr, not the asshole Red baiter) said Gordon was the best all-around player.

Orosco is far from the strangest player to get a single vote

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/13/sports/baseball/13juicebox.html

i remember Gates Brown - hell of a pinchhitter

"btw who is Joe Gordon"

Joe Gordon is kind of a stathead fav, I think

"Main arguments against him are short career and his best season in '42 was against war-depleted competition."

Was '42 that war-depleted? I always think of 43-45 as being the years.

of the four, yeah, '42 would've been the mildest.

I don't remember Jay Jaffe favoring Joe Gordon's election when he did his Vets JAWS column this time, but I'm not sure.

ok i am definately on the rice bandwagon now

"I'll be available at 2 o'clock, and that's important: That's when the phone will ring if there is a phone call coming."
—Red Sox outfielder Jim Rice, on waiting for a call from the Hall of Fame today.

"I'll be watching The Young and the Restless. It's over at 1:30, so that will give me a half hour. But I never miss The Young and the Restless, and I'm not going to start now."
—Rice

"I've been watching it for 25 years. When I was playing for the Red Sox, we met some of the cast one day in Oakland. They were playing a softball game at the ballpark. Two or three of them were big Red Sox fans. I met the cast later on in Anaheim. I started watching the show and I was hooked."
—Rice

"Miss Chancellor's coming back. She's this billionaire on the show. She had a look-alike that they buried, and everyone thinks it's her. But it's not. It's all incredible stuff."
—Rice (Boston Herald)

jaffe on jg

Beyond that, a look at Gordon shows that he's about 10 wins below the standard for second base, which is almost entirely a function of his short 11-season career, which includes two full years missed due to military service, and retirement after his age-35 season. A nine-time All-Star who was the 1942 MVP, Gordon offered rare power for a second baseman. He never won a home-run crown, but finished in the top 10 nine times, including second twice. His peak is 0.7 wins shy of the standard for second basemen, and his career 18.5 wins shy. It's worth noting that he had outstanding seasons on both sides of the war (save for a .210/.308/.338 showing in 1946, his first year back), and voters have set a solid precedent for extrapolating seasons missing due to military service, and if we pencil in values for his 1944 and 1945 seasons akin to his 1947 and 1948 numbers, about 7.0 WARP apiece, he's much closer to electable. Certainly not over the standard, but one can at least get a handle on the justification for him being voted in by the more research-minded of the two bodies.

Craig (Bethesda, MD): Hey Keith, just wanted to see if you saw Jim Rice on MLBNetwork yesterday. When asked if he thought Fenway helped or hurt him, he said in the end it had to have hurt him...Just sad...

SportsNation Keith Law: (1:23 PM ET ) Players, in general, are not good at explaining what made them good players.

"The greatest thing is when Jim Rice tried to call, everybody had their phones off," (Bill) Lee said, referencing Rice's lack of popularity. "Why do they always pick the a--hole over the nice guy

"My machine had the message, `Under a Republican administration, man exploits man. Under a Democratic administration, it's just the opposite.'"

hey I think I'll steal that (he probly did from Will Rogers)

HAHA! EAT SHIT, STATHEADS!!

http://d.yimg.com/a/p/ap/20090726/capt.4351664c5f4b409bb8f0952c9ea550ee.hall_of_fame_baseball_nymg107.jpg?x=279&y=345&q=85&sig=2b_stMddsQNbX2RcJObIhw--