The 2010 Boston Red Sox Call All Destroyer Tells Us What He Thinks Thread

symmetry, etc.

cad, you aren't just salivating over the idea of a whole summer of PITCHING AND DEFENSE

― big hoos state of mind (J0rdan S.), Tuesday, February 2, 2010 4:29 PM (5 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

and adrian beltre hitting 275 ft homers

― big hoos state of mind (J0rdan S.), Tuesday, February 2, 2010 4:30 PM (5 minutes ago) Bookmark

i used to be pretty into baseball - id watch games that didnt even have my team playing in them and id read stats on the internet - then like 2 years ago i pretty much suddenly lost like 70% of my enthusiasm for baseball - not sure why

― ice cr?m, Monday, February 23, 2009 5:28 PM (11 months ago) Bookmark

yeah i'm pretty pumped too

:)

the globe has been going all sabermetric lately, there's a front-of-sports-page story today on why J.D. Drew is good and doesnt deserve the criticism he gets (complete with fangraphs WAR/salary value chart etc)

can't complain about that

yeah that was a good article. big fan of amalie's stuff.

Bill James quoyed by BP about a month ago:

"What I’m most curious about in 2010 is how much better we’re going to be defensively," James told the Boston Globe's Peter Abraham. "I don’t think anyone questions that we’re going to have a better defensive team. But are we going to be as much better defensively as we want to believe we are, and is that going to have as much impact on (the pitching staff) as we hope it does?"

Those inside have often argued that statistics cannot accurately gauge a player’s defensive worth, and that it is best evaluated by watching someone play over a period of time. However, James vehemently disagrees with that premise, particularly in light of the various fielding metrics that have been developed in recent seasons.

"The only difference between our ability to evaluate defense and offense at this point is confidence," James said. "Defense, at this point, can be evaluated with the same degree of precision and the same degree of agreement among different methods as offense. We haven’t been doing it all our lives. We’ve had pretty good methods now for five or six years. I’ve been doing the (offensive) stuff all my life. I know what’s a normal gap between two seasons (offensively) and what isn’t. I don’t know the same (defensively)."

Ortiz, commenting on what kind of shape he's in, after being admonished this winter that offseason conditioning was expected: "You've got to see me naked. I feel good. Everything is good. ... I feel good. Do I look good?"

http://www.boston.com/lifestyle/house/gallery/homeshow10?pg=2

is jimmy's link related to tracer's quote?
i'm not clicking that.

unrelated; funny

That game turned out kinda weird...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10164

good interview w/ the official scorer @ fenway

Really interesting interview, thanks for the link!

nomar garciaparra will retire today as a red sox:

The Red Sox will be holding a press conference at 10:30 here in Fort Myers for Nomar Garciaparra to announce his retirement from baseball.

Garciaparra is expected to sign a one-day minor-league contract with the team then also announce that he has taken a job with ESPN.

i hope he opens then re-velcroes his batting gloves eight times before taking the mic

oh btw a look into the disgusting savagery that is commonly known as red sox nation:

How much would you pay to cut the line?

The RemDawg is betting at least $500.

The broadcasting legend is trying to persuade baseball fans to fork over big money for “season passes" to the Red Sox TV color commentator’s new restaurant, Jerry Remy’s Sports Bar & Grill, which is opening next week.

Patrons who shell out $500 will get to skip the line that forms before Red Sox games (packages are for either home or away games), have a guaranteed table (once the game starts), and receive a $25 food credit plus one free beer, along with invites to exclusive events (up to a $3,000 value).

good luck ryan westmoreland - http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/news/story?id=4992990

god damn

not sure there's a scarier term than "cavernous malformation of the brain"

jesus :C

yikes. hoping for a full recovery for him, whether it includes a baseball career or not.

what are boston's chances to win world series in 2010? i haven't really followed the team in a few years, tho i imagine they're still v. good.

as good a chance as any to come out on top of the ALE NYY/BOS/TB triptych; PS is crapshoot after that.

surprised TB is in yr mix. figured they were a one-year wonder.

i say this as a marlins fan, jealous of preserving our top-o-the-heap status among expansion teams.

yeah, yeah, i know the diamondbacks won a WS, too.

if yanquis fall off a cliff (and, as stated before, I have thought the yanquis were due to die for the last 5-7 seasons) and the rays maintain then there's very little way they CAN'T compete for WC or ALE title.

of course, if BOS gives another 900 AB to a .220 hitting ortiz and a .160 hitting catcher then who knows

if ortiz can lay off when it's down and away I foresee great things

"What about Mike Lowell"? Beltre said. "I aint any better player than Mike Lowell, I'll tell you that."

if Papelbon gets shook again then LOL angels

TB had a lot of things go their way in 08 but they're still probably the 3rd best team in the AL and they still have a bunch of good prospects in the high minors to bring up. they'd be tearing up any other division in baseball long-term. xxxp

agreed on TB

the east will even get uglier if baltimore pops in two years and toronto close behind

ya... not sure abt toronto just yet.
and i say this as someone who has forgiven that team for, literally, everything over the years (since '77 tbp).

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2010/04/01/cleaned_up_hitter/

"'I probably smoked two joints, drank about three or four beers, got to the ballpark, took some (amphetamines), took a pain pill, drank a cup of coffee, chewed some tobacco, had a cigarette, and got up to the plate and hit,' Carbo said."

http://mlb.mlb.com/bos/images/email/y2010/jordans_650x400.jpg

i wonder where exactly the sign is

ok, it's the small blue sign w/white lettering in the top middle of this pic:

http://www.boston.com/business/ticker/2010/03/31/fenway539.jpg

extremely unlikely imo

See, they WILL score runs, at least off mediocre staffs like the Yankees'.

Between Pedro, Tyler, and Neil, I'm surprised they didn't roll Ted's frozen head out there.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/everyone-in-red-sox-locker-room-just-assumed-jason,17195/

BOSTON—Catcher Jason Varitek's entrance into the Boston clubhouse Tuesday was punctuated by startled shouts and the clatter of dropped objects, as his Red Sox teammates explained that they had all just assumed the veteran player had died. "I could have sworn he died after the All-Star break," second baseman Dustin Pedroia, who sent flowers and a card to Varitek's family, told reporters. "I don't remember seeing him on base at all last season, much less in the lineup or catching. I thought that's why we got Victor [Martinez], because Jason was dead. Right?" Though Pedroia insisted that it was good to see his teammate again, he was still not entirely convinced that Varitek was not dead after watching him take a round of batting practice.

funny part is the first pedroia quote is totally plausible

victor martinez beastin tonight

when's papi's contract up? dude is a wreck.

"Shit happens. Then you guys talk shit. Two fucking games already. Motherfuckers are going crazy. What's up with that, man? Shit. There's fucking 160 games left. Y'all fuckers go ahead and hit for me."

this is it, since there's no way the 2011 club option is getting picked up.

did you fill in the cusses yourself or did you find this uncensored somewhere

i filled in the blanks then googled

tbh i'm not that worried about him yet. if it werent opening day he wouldnt be starting vs sabathia, and he hasnt been hitting the ball well but he's only struck out once. and its only two games into the season.

"Shit happens. Then you guys talk shit. Two fucking games already. Motherfuckers are going crazy. What's up with that, man? Shit. There's fucking 160 games left. Y'all fuckers go ahead and hit for me."

― ✌.✰|ʘ‿ʘ|✰.✌ (Steve Shasta), Wednesday, April 7, 2010 1:29 PM (3 hours ago) Bookmark

roid rage

nice..i dont get YES despite living like 40 blocks from yankee stadium and espn is blacking out the game since im in market

Other than the first inning the sixth inning is the highest scoring inning, I believe.

first inning should be the highest scoring since its guaranteed to have the top of the order come up. unless the teams in question are mismanaged into having shitty-hitting speedsters at the top of the order.

huh. i would think middle innings would be highest scoring. you got either tiring starter they've seen a few times or bad middle reliever.

No its first inning by far.

Has anyone ever done a breakdown of runs-per-inning by each spot in the order as the leadoff hitter?

Hard to phrase that.

Runs per inning in which the number-one hitter leads off:
Runs per inning in which the number-two hitter leads off:

etc...

not sure how to do that, but the way lineups are generally constructed i'd expect the highest to be either 1 or 2, since most teams have their best hitters in 3 and 4

sportsguy33 I'm going to be 45 years old by the time Jon Lackey's contract ends. Just shoot me in the forehead.
24 minutes ago via UberTwitter

lackey almost stepped up today, but then he didn't

gross

hot stove begins now

tbh could probably send the exact same team out next year and win 95, this was just a down year, not a badly constructed team

Has anyone ever done a breakdown of runs-per-inning by each spot in the order as the leadoff hitter?

Hard to phrase that.

― Andy K, Thursday, August 26, 2010 9:14 PM (4 days ago) Bookmark

There's a section in Thorn and Palmer's "The Hidden Game of Baseball" where they simulated a team's runs scored for various permutations of the batting order. IIRC, 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9 wasn't much better than 9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1, and the optimal order was some strange random thing. Anyway, that book is 25 years old, I'm sure others have studied this since then.

1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9 wasn't much better than 9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1

Maybe this wasn't clear ... they took a team's everyday players and instead of batting them 1-through-9, they batted 9-through-1, and they simulated the # of RS when they batted in that order for the entire season.

i think if you do all the math & simulations out the optimal order isn't much different than the traditional batting order. the only weird thing i remember reading about it is that it's slightly more optimal to have your best two hitters at 2 and 4 instead of 3 and 4

Yeah, obv this depends on what type of hitters you have and how balanced the lineup is and all that. The case study in their book was probably really simplistic.

i just noticed beltre is the only decent 3B free agent this offseason...not a fan of the idea of paying for 3-4 more years of him when he's not likely to hit this well ever again, but i dunno who else they're gonna find to play there

in fact, this year's free agent class is pretty weak overall. the only guys who are worth multi-year deals are crawford, lee, beltre, werth. almost everyone else is either bad, well into their 30s, an injury risk, or a relief pitcher

There's a site that will run the order calculations for you by inputting OBP and SLG (obv imperfect)

IIRC, it usually comes down to:
best leadoff man 1st
best overall hitter second
another high OBP/low GIDP guy 3rd
best overall slugger 4th

worst hitter bats eighth

Manny Delcarmen traded to the Rockies for some dude

this dude

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/B/Chris-Balcom-Miller.shtml

Balcom-Miller, 21, has a 3.31 ERA, 9.7 K/9, and 1.6 BB/9 with three home runs allowed in 108.6 innings for the Rockies' Low A affiliate. Heading into the season Baseball America ranked him 16th among Rockies prospects, saying he "has the ceiling of a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter."

fine pickup for a reliever imo

The Rockies are really going for it now.

A lot more Rockies fans are distraught at this deal than pleased. Manny could be a decent reclamation project for the pitching staff which has repeatedly proved itself with players like Jorge De La Rosa, Jason Hammel, Matt Belisle among others. However, CB-M was playing well and projected solidly, and only the relative depth of pitching prospects on our affiliates softens the blow. Personally, from what little I know, I think it's a shrewd pick-up by Boston and a good reading of the Rockies farm.

I read that he only throws in the upper 80s/mid 90s. Hes also a little bit old for A-ball. If I were a Rockies fan I wouldnt get bent out of shape. Still feel like the WC is going to be either Phillies or SF.

by mid 90s I mean low 90s.

yay manny d. is off our hands!

MDC occasionally looked really dominant with that changeup, if someone can fix him to be like that all the time then you've probably got a good closer

Yeah he certainly wasn't the worst of the bullpen by a long shot.

no, but he's been getting worse for two years now. maybe he's a change of scenery guy but i don't think he was going to find himself in boston.

is it patriots or bruins time yet?

maybe we'll finally get to see lars anderson now that he's a bust and they don't need to preserve his service time

IIRC, it usually comes down to:
best leadoff man 1st
best overall hitter second
another high OBP/low GIDP guy 3rd
best overall slugger 4th

worst hitter bats eighth

― a cross between lily allen and fetal alcohol syndrome (milo z), Monday, August 30, 2010 6:46 PM (2 days ago)

there's a thread on this!

1st: speed (lefty or switch), high obp
2nd: lefty, high obp
3rd: best hitter (OPS/VORP) on team
4th: best slugger on team

That's why Francoeur hit 4th for the Mets last night.

actually the weirdest thing that comes out of the lineup analysis stuff is that the #3 spot in the lineup is actually the 5th most important spot after 2,4,1,5, and is best suited for low average sluggers e.g. david ortiz, jim thome, etc. the reason is that they come up with 2 outs and no men on base a bit more often than the other slots, so a home run slightly increases in value from that slot while a non-HR hit slightly decreases in value.

it's extremely marginal though and if you have your best hitter in the 3-hole you're probably losing no more than a run or 2 per season

a lot of teams still get the all-important 1&2 hitters all wrong which is a much bigger inefficiency than anything you'll get out of more detailed lineup optimization

LOL at Papelbon opening the floodgates by watching Quentin take (an uncovered) second base on a bloop to shallow center.

Then the bottom fell out. Carlos Quentin doubled to no-man’s land in shallow center, where the infielders and rookie outfielder Ryan Kalish converged but nobody could get to the ball. Quentin raced into second where nobody was covering — and Rios scored. Papelbon should have been at second.

“Yeah, I think he would have been safe regardless,’’ Papelbon said.

Quentin took second because nobody was there, dipshit.

lester killin it

The door is open, Sox, the Stanks are swoonin'.

6 games left vs the bombers o_O

Sox' raw playoff odds at 0.25%. I wonder what sweeping the Stanks wd raise it to?

they'd have to take 5 or 6 of the 6 remaining

i think the A's are more likely to make the playoffs than the red sox right now

i just had that open and through you were right -- you're not, it's 0.26% chance Sox and 0.15% chance Rangers. still.

0.15% A's, you get the idea. i'd love to see that surprise upset.. OR WOULD I.

Sox odds up to 1.13%!

well its almost bruins time.

thank god its over.

dont really mind, lots of fun teams to bandwagon for the postseason this year