worst contract out of these $100 million contracts

good pic!

my answer:

http://i753.photobucket.com/albums/xx177/tupac-chopra/whysocrappy.jpg

lock thread

Not Pujols. More research required.

lol at image url

carlos lee and alfonso soriano were probably the worst players in this list at the time of the signing, both poor defenders who hit for power but didn't get on base much and were coming off of career years. i'll vote soriano for having the bigger contract of the two.

I guess my criteria would be: 1) the guy was/will be crap compared to the value of the contract, for at least half the duration of the contract, 2) the deal looked stupid at the time.

That leaves just Howard, Lee, Wells, Soriano, and Hampton. It's looking like ARod 2008 will soon join them, considering how fragile he's been the last couple of years. Griffey's contract looks bad in hindsight, but nobody could have predicted that he'd be injured all the time and he was pretty good when he did play (although prob not good enough to justify the contract). Zito I have a soft spot for, and except for one awful year with the Giants, he hasn't been too far off his career averages.

It's really tough to pick anyone other than Hampton ... although Howard could be a darkhorse pick.

http://drunkathlete.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/Barry_Zito_Grey_Goose_drunk-400x300.jpg

Howard is the most wtf one to me, since he had almost TWO FULL SEASONS left on his contract when they extended him. plus he would have hit free agency at the same time as prince fielder, adrian gonzalez, and possibly pujols, so there's no way he would have gotten more on the open market.

it's definitely not the worst one here but it had the worst timing and to me seems like fan appeasement instead of a sound baseball decision

yeah that was sheer lunacy. he's going to be 31 next season, his power has faded this season for some reason, his walks have declined every single season since he won the MVP, he's got the same slugging % as aubrey huff, and he's not even in the top 20 in MLB in OPS.

I remember thinking the Kevin Brown contract was insane at the time--he was 33--but when I check back now, the Dodgers actually got some value back; Brown was really good for four out of the five seasons he was there. (Kevin Brown good, mind you--13-6, seasons like that.) To properly answer this question, you'd need to track any player who left the team that signed him, see what they got in return, etc. A lot of work. But I did check Hampton, and after they got rid of him, Colorado got a couple of decent seasons out of Charles Johnson, and one huge season out of Preston Wilson. So I'm voting for Zito. Everyone ridiculed the contract immediately, and indeed he's been crummy. Supposedly he had finally bounced back this year, but now he's 8-8, and his E.R.A. is creeping back towards 4.00. He's 32, and he's thrown a lot of innings the past decade.

Being in Toronto, the Wells contract is an albatross that the team can't get out from under. But he's a good guy, and he plays well enough (barely) that he probably helps a perennial .500 team.

the ONE cogent defense of the howard contract is that since he's always been with the phillies, there's more pressure to re-sign him/reward him/show fans you're committed etc etc -- it's one thing to sign barry zito to a hundred million dollar contract, i think it's a slightly less worse thing to do it with someone who has been with your own franchise for his whole career and has won an mvp & a world series

that said, it's still a stupid contract -- they could've waited two years, also they can't ease him out like the red sox have been able to do w/ ortiz because of there's no DH in the nl, and i think that limits his value moving forward as well

i'm voting soriano -- he's NOWHERE near worth $136 million, and i can't imagine any scenario in which they can move that contract & he's really not worth much of anything & he's probably holding back tyler colvin -- just an utterly awful contract

Aren't you guys being a little rough on Ryan Howard? It may well turn out to be a bad contract, but there are contracts here that have already been provably awful. Maybe the timing wasn't logistically perfect, but rewarding someone with a big contract after going 1-5-2-3 in the last four MVP votes, and coming off two World Series, doesn't seem like that bad a baseball decision to me.

it's always a bad idea to reward a player for past performance rather than examining his career trend. it's not that ryan howard is a bad player and he may not be "bad" for the life of the contract, but he's not worth $25 million per season now or maybe ever. if he's as good the rest of the contract as he has been this season, he's a "good" player and nowhere near great.

it's pretty amazing that despite how excellent his '06 season was, he was still only 8th in the NL in WAR, behind pujols, cabrera, beltran, andruw jones, atkins(!), jose reyes, and bronson arroyo(!!)

That makes sense, but hasn't the whole story of free agency been rewarding guys for what they've already done? Maybe I've internalized this to a point where I never gave the Howard contract a second thought. The Zito contract, by contrast, was given to a guy who clearly wasn't the same pitcher who'd won the Cy Young four years earlier. Everyone could see that, except for the numbskulls who signed him.

Movie studios and record companies operate exactly the same way; ask Kevin Costner and Janet Jackson, the Barry Zitos of their professions. Again, I think I just take paying-for-what-they-did-last-year (or movie, or album) for granted.

well that's essentially what defines all bad free agent signings, is the inability of a team's front office to look beyond the player's past accomplishments and base the contract on their projected future performance.

aging curves and the contextual problems with RBIs as a skill evaluator are the most basic of baseball analytics concepts, and the Howard contract suggests that the Phillies either don't fully understand these (possible) or do understand them but think that Their Guy is awesome enough to be above all of that (more likely)

If you hit lotsa HRs w/out excelling in anything else, you get overpaid

i think there are the smarter GMs who go after younger guys who have been great and on the ascent (or nowhere near a decline, however one might estimate that) and sign them to deals lasting during their peak years and not much further. i think the worse GMs sign those guys who have clearly passed their peak. like it kinda makes zero sense to pay a-rod 27.5 million per season over the life of a contract that will mostly be his late 30s and early 40s, because you can't reasonably expect him to continue at his '07 levels or maybe even his '08 levels. and soriano's deal was even stupider b/c they were basing his deal on his single epic season with the nationals and not a career of consistency.

so who's the next hundred million man?

werth & his people have indicated that they're gonna push for a matt holiday type deal, but i don't think he's played well enough this year to warrant that... unless the red sox (likely) or the yankees come in for him

i guess then you have prince? i assume boras will be able to get him over the $100 mill threshold

ah - he had some decent years before, mostly with the Yanks. it wasn't until '09 that he really went off a cliff.

xpost

Alex Gonzalez for sure.

i think anyone signing werth beyond three years is insane. i bet the next $100 million man is cliff lee.

i feel like no one in baseball respects Cliff Lee.

forgot about cliff, he's pretty much a lock

i think cliff is pretty well respected

yeah i mean soriano's '02 was epic and his '03 was really good, but his two seasons in texas were really pretty average, and i think his '06 was clearly some kind of final peak performance season, though his first year with the cubs was still above average.

I'm going to go back to something Jordan S said earlier:

the ONE cogent defense of the howard contract is that since he's always been with the phillies, there's more pressure to re-sign him/reward him/show fans you're committed

To me, franchise players have to be approached differently than whoever's just travelling through. The Cardinals have Pujols, the Phillies have Howard. When a team lets a franchise player get away--like the Dodgers did with Piazza--I think it's bad for the game. Even when a team seemingly turns out to be 100% right in letting a player walk (the Mariners and Griffey), it still feels wrong. And I say "seemingly" because, had he remained in Seattle, maybe Griffey's career would have played out differently.

Too much sentiment. I'd make a lousy GM.

i think it would be right to let pujols go if he was on the decline, which he doesn't appear to be, and his consistency will probably continue on for some time. howard still had a couple years left and he was already on the decline, so why jump the gun? by next season he might be a 30 HR/.260/.340/.510 kinda guy, and then you're stuck. he may not be, i mean he could go back to at least the levels of last season, but it's not something you can count on.

the guy is just traded So MUCH! it's like once a team gets him the find out he has cooties or something and they need to get him out the door asap!
and also his 2008 was completely out of nowhere. there was no indication that he could pitch like that before. i've been waiting for a regression since.

xposts

i don't think that teams should worry about what's best "for the game", but it's extremely tough to play the game of predicting the downfall of your franchise players and not paying them because of that & still remain a respectable franchise to your fans and other players

the thing with howard is that they gave him an extension before they needed to & that's the real egregious thing -- they wouldn't have been in that tough of a position if they waited two years

i don't know that lee's '08 was totally out of nowhere. he was really good in '05 and solid in '06. '07 was a disaster, admittedly. but since '08 he's been pretty awesome. he's been a little worse with the rangers than he was with the m's, but he's a cool customer, never walks anybody, and seems to be the kind of pitcher who would age really well.

it's extremely tough to play the game of predicting the downfall of your franchise players and not paying them because of that & still remain a respectable franchise to your fans and other players

^ this. no player wants to hear from a team (esp when they've played with their entire career there) when their contract is up that they aren't going to get offered the super mega bucks the used to make because they've been declining and are getting older and the team expects the very normal trend that happens to everyone to continue. 99% of players would say "screw you" and walk.

xpost

he was good on '05 - but it was still nothing compared to '08.

not only that, but it's also tough to sign guys where their contract ends at a point where they are still "good" but def on the decline -- it really wouldn't even have happened with howard if they hadn't given him the contract two years out

to get big players like this you are almost always going to be overpaying for 3+ years

i was expecting him to be another Esteban Loaiza, but he's kept it up pretty well. i guess at 32, if he's going to get himself 100 million, he's going to find a team that thinks he will pitch like this until he's at least 37.

xpost

ya - so i guess it won't be too hard for him to get that contract.

Thermo and I are going to buy the Pirates, restock the team with all our favourite Jays from years past--Moseby in centre, Robbie at second, Cliff Johnson DH'ing--and sign them all to big 10-year contracts. Just because we like them as people.

dude. i hope you're funding this one, i don't even have a job right now!

Key and Henke are key and urgent, btw.

I'll give you $145 in cash and a pickup truck full of watermelons for the stadium concession contract.

xxpost

btw i still think the dumbest contract ever was one that wasn't finished, cf. larry himes deciding that jose guzman, candy maldonado, randy myers, and dan plesac would be better for the cubs than greg maddux, who was 26 at the time.

like it kinda makes zero sense to pay a-rod 27.5 million per season over the life of a contract that will mostly be his late 30s and early 40s, because you can't reasonably expect him to continue at his '07 levels or maybe even his '08 levels. and soriano's deal was even stupider b/c they were basing his deal on his single epic season with the nationals and not a career of consistency.

― ('_') (omar little), Monday, August 23, 2010 4:19 PM (23 minutes ago) Bookmark

look, i'm firmly in your camp that he hits 25 hrs for next two seasons then settles into an 18 hr a year semi-DL endgame. still, it makes a lot of sense when the mere promise of a bonds hr record chase is the only thing out there that could goose the YES network's already high tune in numbers. ratings = dollars, it's not always sensibly sabermetrical.

I was just going to say that as a GM, I'd be very reluctant to hand out big-money, long-term contracts to pitchers, be it Lee or almost anybody. Obviously you have to to stay competitive, but I'd be very nervous. The Braves had arguably the greatest free-agent signing ever with Maddux. How many other long-term contracts ever worked out so well with a starting pitcher?

Considering the contracts after the fact is kind of unfair. The Griffey deal was pretty reasonable when it happened, but he got injured. He was totally worth it, and injuries happen.

On the other hand, Manny's deal was fucking crazy and yet he totally (and somewhat surprisingly) earned every penny of it.

Angels are the “best” at this in some way. Never forget Josh Hamilton.

Chris Davis is on par for a -4.0 WAR season, lmao

not really sure how to answer this since there are a lot of different factors at play but I do think the Ryan Howard one gets special consideration because that one was so obviously doomed from the start, even a best-case projection of how Howard would age wouldn't even come close to $125m in value

might as well start using chris davis as a relief pitcher at this point. he wasn't bad the... one? two times he pitched?

the howard deal is extra special because iirc it didn't even kick in for a couple seasons -- completely unnecessary

plus there was virtually no competition for him. was anyone really gonna offer a 32-year old slugger anything close to that?

If Chris Davis gets to -4.0 WAR then he might be the winner. That's nearly as much (negative) value as all five years of Ryan Howard's extension!

eric hosmer's eight-year/$144m deal is not off to a good start

93 wRC+, 0.3 bWAR, -0.6 fWAR at age 28 in the *first* year of the deal

Just think, the Padres can build up their team around the hosmer core for the next 7 years, they’re gonna be great

what we've learned from all this is . . . never sign first basemen. don't even sign ian desmond and inexplicably move him to first. put a reliever there if you want, or better yet just field eight players

Scott Hatteberg

wasnt sure where to put this but whoa damn kenta maeda is on a team friendly deal

2016 28 Los Angeles Dodgers $3,125,000
2017 29 Los Angeles Dodgers $3,125,000
2018 30 Los Angeles Dodgers $3,125,000
2019 31 Los Angeles Dodgers $3,125,000
2020 32 Los Angeles Dodgers $3,125,000
2021 33 Los Angeles Dodgers $3,125,000
2022 34 Los Angeles Dodgers $3,125,000
2023 35 Los Angeles Dodgers $3,125,000
Earliest Free Agent: 2024

hm ok i guess some incentives too, had physical "irregularities"

https://www.truebluela.com/2016/1/7/10733574/kenta-maeda-contract-details-dodgers-risk-bonuses

I guess Toronto inherited Tulowitzki's contract, but his arrival here coincided with him hitting the $20M mark.

2007	22	Colorado Rockies	$381,000	?		
2008	23	Colorado Rockies	$750,000	?		
2009	24	Colorado Rockies	$1,000,000	?		
2010	25	Colorado Rockies	$3,500,000	3.033		
2011	26	Colorado Rockies	$5,500,000	4.033		
2012	27	Colorado Rockies	$8,250,000	5.033	contracts	
2013	28	Colorado Rockies	$10,000,000	6.033	contracts	
2014	29	Colorado Rockies	$16,000,000	7.033	contracts	
2015	30	Toronto Blue Jays	$20,000,000	8.033	contracts	
2016	31	Toronto Blue Jays	$20,000,000	9.033		
2017	32	Toronto Blue Jays	$20,000,000	10.033	contracts	
2018	33	Toronto Blue Jays	$20,000,000	11.033		
2019	34	Toronto Blue Jays	$20,000,000		
2020	35	Toronto Blue Jays	$14,000,000		
2021	36	Toronto Blue Jays	*$15,000,000	$15M Team Option, $4M Buyout

I don't know how long it was before we started paying the whole amount. Anyway, the Jays are on the hook until 2021. For that, we got...a symbolic jolt out of the deal in 2015 (day after or day before getting Price, I think), great defense that first year, a few key hits, and not much else ever since.

We compared every MLB player who has signed for at least $100 mil. Two of the many takeaways: get'em when they're young (like Machado and Harper); shy away from the second big deal.https://t.co/BpykPfKpgU

— Joe Ward (@wardnyt) February 20, 2019

eric hosmer's eight-year/$144m deal is not off to a good start

93 wRC+, 0.3 bWAR, -0.6 fWAR at age 28 in the *first* year of the deal

― mookieproof, Thursday, August 2, 2018 3:32 PM (one year ago) bookmarkflaglink

second year update

97 wRC+, .275/.323/.434, ISO .158, 0.0 fWAR, age 29. $102M left on the contract from 2020-25 (unless he takes advantage of hosmer fever and opts out after 2022).

second lowest ISO among qualified first basement (ahead of only joey votto ;_;)

his wrC+ is worst, just behind albert pujols

https://www.kshb.com/sports/baseball/royals/hosmer-fever-strikes-at-bieber-concert

machado hasn't been overwhelming in his first year either -- i mean he's still *good*, but only a 107 wRC+

Machado's first couple/few months were dismal, he's salvaging something out of this season.

also has defensive value

interesting how much better harper's defense is rated this season than last

Players who qualifying for the batting title putting up consecutive sub-replacement seasons is a less frequent occurrence than you may think. Prior to Hosmer, only 63 players in history have managed the feat a total of 75 times. Nobody’s done it since 2014 (Billy Butler and Ryan Howard) and the last player to manage it and still get enough playing time the following year to qualify was Roger Cedeno in 2003. The third time was the charm and Cedeno finally lost his job.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-padres-have-a-first-base-problem

miggy might join that exclusive club this year, if he plays enough. if he wasn't injured for most of 2018 he might have already done it

Prince Albert averaging 0.1 bWAR over the past four seasons deserves an honorable mention.

without trying to defend their contracts, miggy and albert are hall of famers, and old and broken. hosmer managed this while healthy at age 28-29

Posnanski put Pujols at #23 on his Top 100 list yesterday. (The rankings not meant to be taken particularly seriously, as he has pointed out many times.)

i might buy his book when it comes out (i'm assuming this will be a book). i really liked the top 100 countdown back when it was on his website

trout was in the mid-20s, right? surprised to see him not in the top 10

Trout's at #27. I don't know how much rewriting there's been on the current countdown--can't remember how far he got last time, either (not to #1, I know that).

For reference that is 14,286 Chris Davis contracts https://t.co/FamuS5Xbcb

— Bmore Train-liking Fellow (@FreeMassTransit) August 25, 2021

This is floating around today, with Bobby Bonilla mentioned every time--as in, leave him alone, there's a new gold-standard for deferred insanity.

https://thespun.com/more/top-stories/sports-world-shocked-by-chris-davis-payment-details

the thing is that deferred money is far more favorable to the franchise than the player. if i owe chris davis $42 million i’d rather spread it out over 15 years too

True...It's more of a symbolic effect. If you pay the guy up front, he's out of sight and out of mind when he retires; this way, it's a never-ending reminder of how bad that contract is.

if i owe chris davis $42 million

that tweet cited in the article was incorrect (they replied with a correction shortly thereafter), it's $59M. but yeah, if you assume a 2.5% inflation rate for the next 15 years, deferring the money saves the team about $7M 2022 dollars -- moreso if you think inflation will be higher than 2.5%. also, the orioles don't have much money, right? if you offered an orioles fan the choice between using the money saved by deferring to compete in 2023, or instead paying off the chris davis contract in a lump sum, i'm guessing they'd choose to have more money to spend on active players, now. it opens up payroll space in the current time period while reducing the real money value of the future payments.

the only party that is actually damaged by these deferments is the player themselves, because they're getting paid less. the fans will complain during each deferment period where an old bust gets another couple million dollars, but they're complaining about an action that made a very bad Chris Davis contract slightly less bad (imo)

ALL THAT SAID - in a situation like Chris Davis, i agree with clemenza that there is a very strong symbolic effect, and this whole conversation is going to take place every single year until 2037 among orioles fans, at the least, reminding everyone of how terrible the contract was and that they're still paying for it. all the deferment stuff makes financial sense, but baseball and fandom in general is full of intangible things that should also be considered

Wonder which of the recent massive deals will wind up the worst…my money’s on bogaerts.

it's an older, smaller bad contract, but Bumgarner's deal with the diamondbacks (5 years, $85M) has been pretty bad. this line from the ZiPS preview for the 2023 dbacks jumped out: "ZiPS actually thinks Bumgarner has more value as a pitcher hitting in a non-DH league than as, well, a pitcher."

Wonder which of the recent massive deals will wind up the worst

i'd love to see them all get a chance to stay healthy and see what they can do. unfortunately i think when it comes to a 12+ year contract it starts to become more likely that injuries or PED revelations will derail a career. imagine if a 25-year-old grady sizemore was playing these days, and just got a 13-year mega extension. based on his first handful of years, you'd think there was no way it could go wrong

Wonder which of the recent massive deals will wind up the worst…my money’s on bogaerts.

― omar little, Thursday, December 15, 2022 5:30 PM (forty-five minutes ago)

de grom. bogaerts will at least be on the field

Oof yeah you’re right forgot about him

miguel cabrera, 2016-2023, $248M ($31M AAV)

so far, he has 3 WAR over the course of the first 6 years of the 7 year contract

in the first year of the contract, he had a 5.1 bWAR, followed by: -0.9, 0.2, 0.0, 0.1, -0.5, -1.0

but hey, that first year -- great!

buyer bWAR

I'm posting the exact opposite here--or maybe this is the worst contract post free-agency from a player's standpoint. Ozzie Albies, of course. For seven million this year, the Braves have a 4.0-5.0 WAR second baseman with 30 HR, 100 RBI, and a .500+ slugging percentage, just heading into what should be the prime of his career. They also have him for the same seven million in 2024 and 2025.

Stephen Strasburg has retired. He signed a $245,000,000 contract in 2019 but threw only 530 pitches in the big leagues after that. pic.twitter.com/rrPKMmChwS

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) April 7, 2024

Actually unbelievable. They got their ring though 🤷‍♂️

I think Strasburg would have been good for a few more years if he had stayed healthy, unlike most of the players discussed on this thread.

this was a trickier situation than usual due to the size of the money owed to Strasburg and the Nationals' lack of insurance for his contract, which usually mitigates long-term injury risk.

i have no idea what it would have cost to insure a contract like that, but wow was forgoing it a terrible decision

It might not have been insurable if he had a history of injury

i hate to say it since i will love him forever, but that contract the Rockies gave Kris Bryant is looking pretty bad.