What's the future of the music industry?

The reason that current CD's sound so bad is not that the format isn't up to the task, it's because it is compressed up to fucking -5 dB levels which kills all dynamic range in the first place. Going to 24 bit will not have ANY effect but on your wallet.[/rant]

*Recording* in 24/32 bit is a whole different thing of course...

Next!

This kind of Wired-driven digital utopia is decades away. People wil buy CDs for the forseeable future.

Unfortunately, downloading will never be as easy as it was with Napster. That was truly an amazing time. The other, newer programs [Kazaa, etc] lead to spyware, decoys and lack of the sheer breadth that Napster had. Napster was so amazing.

Kids under 18 will slowly destroy the corporate-driven realm of high-priced CDs [as I've mentioned before the new Linkin Park will retail for $19.98]

As for the decline in music sales, this is an indicator of the unspoken Deflation that is present in the market today. Fast Food, autos, movie rentals, clothes, housewares, are all indicators of deflationary tendancies in today's market. Which no self-respecting economist evens wants to mention, unless they want to be fired.

Take McDonald's for example. Much like Interscope, they mass market complete shite, have almost cut their costs in half, yet poss a first-ever loss [like 3 quarters in a row now].

Music just happens to be the biggest example of deflation. Having driven the prices down, it still went from having a $17 product to having a free product. Not easy to rebound from.

There are people who will always buy CDs and vinyl [like me, who's spent $200 already this year], but they are not beholden to Geffen, etc. as much as they are to Barely Breaking Even.

I could seriously drone on and on about this, but let's just say the future of the music business is not in any way corporate [unless they can agree on the SACD/DVDAudio argument, and not even then], and will continue to contract for at least the next 5 years...

but this Jetson's-style centrally controlled wi-fi music satellite atmospheric nonsense will become a reality, if at all, in maybe 20 years, and only for the rich. Remember, to be technologically adept, you have to have money, and the more, the better.

Wired never thought enough about that.

"Decades away" is my foreseeable future even if not yours. I only wish copyright were the small matter of 20 years. Unless a miracle happens NEW digital music downloading (that is, music produced of the time, not talking about music available for years in non-encrypted media) will become extremely corporate and user-lobotomised-friendly, you'll just have to pay. You can bank on it.

Then we can reminisce about when you could free-ride on leaking bandwidth, those were the days, sigh.

I remember finding the most amazing things on Napster, and quickly and easily. It was an incredible phenomenon and, I think, the pinnacle of Internet technology. Soulseek is closer, but not nearly with the vast array of music like Napster.

Felicity is right, people growing up will know the Internet more and more as a commercially-driven, corporate-controlled medium. And, yes, I said utopia with my tongue in my cheek.

Commercial databases will never contain all the music you like, anyhow, and the idea that all bands will rely on their own marketing and distribution solutions is truly utopian. Would anyone have heard or cared for Avril Lavigne if she had only had her own website? I doubt it.

Her company put her on billboards, MTV, radio, etc. downloading or no, pop stars will continue to be manufactured by the record companies, as they have been for going on 75 years now.

david is talking about the transaction costs of transfer of information -- not just transfer of the music itself but transfer of information through publicity and advertising. Signal-to-noise is often the issue in a hypermediated, overinterpreted, Late Capitalist society (as we have seen on this very board).

Any valid criticism or prediction of the contemporary (at any given point in time) music industry must account for the production and supply side, not just the consumption and demand side. Failing to account for the role of law is denial, and effectively takes the bite out of any commentary or proposals of the industry that lack this understanding. Also, such critiques appear unprincipled and are thus unconvincing.

Those that created the game are simply not going to continue handing out the technology needed to rip the game apart once they have it the way they like it. (Kind of like with Iraq.) However, it is human nature to sabotage for personal gain. Do you think there is value in examining how one's user choices and decisions contribute to patterns? The music companies do. Also, I think you must look at the entire environment of a user's everyday world, from elevators to scryscapers to rural country power lines and crackling AM radio -- not just the time where you are sitting at a computer (geeta's "Fuck You, Music" experiment was a great illustration of this.) The fact that ILM exists on a computer message board may contribute to a certain heuristic bias here, but the market influence of millions of world-wide Garth Brooks fans who don't contribute here should also be accounted for in making predictions.

The most interesting development has been reduction in the transfer costs of certain types of information (like distribution of digitized music itself) but as certain aspects of these become more regulated by technology, new battle fronts in the war between "legitimate" (positivist and sactioned by the Western model of capitalism) and "pirate" (for lack of a better word -- it has always been an aspect of a certain type of culture in industrialized society) elements within music production, distribution and consumption.

Imperfect and incomplete availability of information makes most markets. Auction models are certain ways of creating efficiencies between supply and demand over specified time increments. EBay is one of the most significant paradigm shifts in the Information Age. It is a sampler of things to come, as the free market system is set up to incentivize the capture of wasted value. How do people feel about the effect of eBay on after-market record collecting? Is it closer to or further from everyone's personal utopia?

what also interests me is the potential for selling CD-Rs full of media tailored to the consumer's needs/interests. what if you could purchase a band's entire catalogue as bog-standard mp3s on a single CD-R - legitimately or otherwise? surely someone somewhere is doing this. what about movies on CD? TV shows and captured footage you can't buy anywhere else anyway? there are lots of exciting possibilities...

What do you mean by clone?

Are you being sarcastic? (I'm a little dense and literal.)

and no i wasn't being sarcastic at all! i mean if people are prepared to pay £10-15 for albums on CD why not a little bit more for a CD-R with every album by a band on one disc? i am lazy and searching for obscure material online can be a chore - why can't i just buy it easily from an organised source and in a format thats as convenient as possible for me, if i want to? obviously it would take the industry to wave a white flag and say 'we can't beat you so we'll join you' somewhat and put up with piracy like they're going to have to anyway, but i really dont see what the problem is with being able to buy mp3s on CD or video on CD legitimately. while its fair to say doing this kind of thing of yourself and selling them via eBay or wherever is dubious and disrespectful, i would have no qualms about paying money for, say, 100 quality mp3s on a CD or 10 decent quality music videos of my choice on a CD or DVD for the same price you'd pay for the equivalent in the shops.

heartening: http://thequietus.com/articles/03352-a-decade-in-music-filesharing-post-napster-myths-of-the-digital-age

In the future, people will just type their preferences into a computer, and everything will be tied into a central network that programs stuff corresponding what mood the listener wants to be in that day. If they want new stuff, the computer will just automatically program something the person is guaranteed to like according to said preferences. There won't be any more middlemen like artists, promoters etc

― dave q, Saturday, October 19, 2002 6:39 PM (7 years ago)

dave q otm

Bands will play a 30 and over, non-smoking show at 7:00. Then, if they wish, they can play an under 30, smoking & posturing show that starts at 11:00.

― dave225 (Dave225), Saturday, March 15, 2003 4:25 AM (6 years ago)

dave225 sadly not yet otm

Ha, like in the sixties, but the age groups are the wrong way round.

the aime street digital music site was bought by amazon.com. they promise to integrate parts of it into amazon.com's overall service, but it sounds more to me like the service is dead.

http://www.lala.com/

RIP

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118023766.html?categoryid=16&cs=1&ref=vertmusic

Rhino -- whose name was once synonymous with high-end reissue packages and imaginative cross-licensed releases -- is plotting a course to move further into the digital realm.

great idea

i just hope that if cd's go out vinyl remains. that's all i really care for. cd's can fucking burn for all i care. most unattractive display pieces in history.

not to sound like a raging grandaddy or someone with a newfound hipster complex. i just like to display my album art around the house.

yeah fuck a cd

amie st was on a downhill slide for a while sadly

http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/4d5c3e1e4bd7c86216030000/chart-of-the-day-music-industry-1973-2009-feb-2011.jpg

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-music-industry-sales-2011-2

It that adjusted for inflation? It's strange to think that in the gutting of the music industry, it may still be at mid-seventies size or larger.

^^^
The market is global now - the vast bulk of the 70s figure would be N. America and Europe.

http://www.businessinsider.com/these-charts-explain-the-real-death-of-the-music-industry-2011-2

more sensible numbers and shits

inflation and population-adjusted money shot:

http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/4d5ea2acccd1d54e7c030000/music-industry.jpg

legalize spotify ffs usa

i'm more adamant about this than this stupid marijuana shit we're in riots about

We're in riots over that?

Spotify will never ever ever be legalized here.

Please do not take me literally.

It's like 99% legalized here in Denver, but we have the occasional protest outside cap. hill wanting it outside the medical realm.

"medical"

http://thequietus.com/articles/06318-how-the-music-industry-is-killing-music-and-blaming-the-fans

Yeah, that was an interesting article. Not sure but it seems that many of the main points are refutable and worst-case-scenarios, though.

Red flag disclaimer in that go fund link: "All funds will be delivered directly to DUMMY, to use at their discretion. This fundraiser is not affiliated with the band or their management."

So, like, it could be the weed budget.

Sounds like it may not even get to them.

Collective Soul and Goo Goo Dolls both have new albums out this weekend. It’s kind of surreal to me how bands like that keep on steadily releasing new material over the years (as opposed to, say, just playing the hits in concert). Do even their fans want to hear new music from them?

Whatever happened with the Animal Collective guy's pitch for donations to ... fuck around in Africa? Indonesia?

it took deakin 7 years but he delivered on the kickstarter eventually & most of the funds went to charity.

https://pitchfork.com/thepitch/1091-why-animal-collectives-deakin-took-7-years-to-make-his-kickstarter-funded-album/

Do even their fans want to hear new music from them?

Something like 73 rave reviews on a new video on Collective Soul's FB page; v positive reviews of the album in Spin, American Songwriter and AMG. I'll check with my MIL next time I see her how she feels about the new material. (Not like I've been listening to it.)

New videos seem to have about 85k views on YouTube, as opposed to 57M for the official video of "Shine". I imagine it's enough that they're not flipping burgers.

if playing the hits can fund studio time and making new stuff gives you the motivation to keep playing the hits... good on ya

Collective Soul was pretty much a band making records at home from the start. The main guy Ed Roland was making demos and recording his own stuff while working as recording engineer.

There is a good interview with one of the industry recording magazines (maybe even Tape Op) about him I read. That first record was made with ADATs and an Alesis drum machine.

Having lived in Buffalo from 05-08, the Goo Goo Dolls definitely had their devotees; I imagine they still do.

Yeah they locked into their niche and kept at it. Still have a fondness for the early albums in general.

The third Goo Goo Dolls album is the best Replacements album.

I guess it's a blind spot for me! Had no idea there were such committed Collective Soul fans.

xpost No lie!

This is part of the filter bubble phenomenon in the streaming age - people who accidentally or deliberately streamed a few of their songs, will keep getting fed new material by these artists.

So to the listeners caught in that bubble, Goo Goo Dolls are still a huge current band “you hear on the radio all the time” even if they’ve long disappeared for most of the rest of the world.

last decade of goos albums has been pretty unlistenable and trend-hoppy. haven’t attempted the new one

This is part of the filter bubble phenomenon in the streaming age - people who accidentally or deliberately streamed a few of their songs, will keep getting fed new material by these artists.

So to the listeners caught in that bubble, Goo Goo Dolls are still a huge current band “you hear on the radio all the time” even if they’ve long disappeared for most of the rest of the world.

Enh, lots of bands have a core of loyal fans who aren't necessarily deluded about their current popularity. I had to turn off the new GGD single before it was over, though.

Of course, but in the past it became obvious to them that their favourite band had fallen out of favour by noticing they had disappeared from radio and tv.

Today, those fans would never know: new releases by the band will pop up in their ad feed, their youtube feed, their spotify feed, so the illusion is never broken.

erstwhile ilxor emilys pointed me to the new GGD video, in which Johnny R looks profoundly confused by the goings-on around him, as if, coming from the age of the multimillion dollar MTV promo push, he can't quite accept that this low-budgey simulated party really is the video shoot.

This is the contemporary equivalent of state fair circuit Classic Rock bands signing to CMC International in 1997.

I forgot where I mentioned this, but the recent-ish summer fest by the Houston Alternative station was anchored by bands whose heyday was 1995-2005.

Old Growth Pop

I took a look at the Billboard top 200 albums chart today and was a little struck by how much old music and compilations are on it. The current US chart (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/) includes
Queen - Greatest Hits (30)
Fleetwood Mac - Rumours (36)
CCR - Chronicle: the 20 Greatest Hits (44)
Elvis - 30 #1 Hits (60)
2Pac - Greatest Hits (68)
Journey's Greatest Hits (69)
Michael Jackson - Thriller (77)
Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers - Greatest Hits (80)
Eminem - Curtain Call: the Hits (81)
Guns n Roses - Greatest Hits (84)
AC/DC - Back in Black (86)
Nirvana - Nevermind (96)
Bob Marley & the Wailers - Legend (97)
Michael Jackson - The Essential Michael Jackson (100)

You can continue to find comps by ABBA, Bon Jovi, George Strait, Nickelback, Lynyrd Skynyrd in the 101-200 range, and Metallica's black album.

For comparison, this chart from August 1992 contains only one album that wouldn't have been relatively recent at the time - Queen's Greatest Hits, which was surely enjoying a boost since Mercury had died not too long ago. I tried to imagine telling someone in 1992 that Elvis, CCR, Fleetwood Mac, ABBA, Journey, Bon Jovi and Guns n Roses would be on the charts in 30 years.

That's nothing compared to the UK charts week in week out
https://www.officialcharts.com/charts/albums-chart/

My loose thoughts: they really should just have a heritage chart at this stage, containing anything older than a few years maybe, other than dedicated new re-releases.

Christ, half that chart has been in for 100 weeks or more.

Yeah I wasn't even mentioning stuff like Taylor Swift's 1989 and Kanye West's College Dropout. Lol the UK chart though. The Canadian chart is a similar story - the compilations appear even higher with Queen at 20, ABBA at 30, more Shania Twain and Tragically Hip, less Skynyrd and George Strait, Appetite instead of a GH but yeah. Is this just because when they count streaming numbers, they effectively count the equivalent of every time someone put on a classic rock station or spun their copy of Rumours in 92?

Wow - Taylor has seven albums on the BB 200

The two Queen comps in the '92 list were there because they were technically new releases put together to launch Hollywood Records' reissue campaign of the Queen catalogue, and were gifted extra commercial legs by the release of Wayne's World and the related single rerelease of "Bohemian Rhapsody".

Regular catalogue albums like Rumours etc. were ineligible for the Top 200 unless they received a new reissue. This stood until the industry cratered enough that they let any catalogue release in just to make #'s and not have like some SoundCloud dude who pushed 500 units chartbust.

All those albums cited in the new chart are doing the business on vinyl in big box stores.

Ah, that's more context.

My loose thoughts: they really should just have a heritage chart at this stage

Disgraced UKIP boosting DJ Mike Read is on the case! https://www.heritagechart.co.uk/

U Music chief sez he's not down with the status quo: https://variety.com/2023/music/news/universal-music-lucian-grainge-slams-streaming-economy-spotify-1235486063/

Obv I wouldn't trust him to make a magically better model that reduces his business's share, but at least he's not saying he has one, and it's good to see this on the record.

Billboard article making the case that the album remains strong: https://www.billboard.com/pro/album-format-dead-narrative-music-discovery-tiktok-singles/

hmm paywall

Weird, I didn’t hit it – try this?

that'll do it, thanks!

Interesting article - thanks for sharing

UMG "calls time out" on TikTok: https://www.universalmusic.com/an-open-letter-to-the-artist-and-songwriter-community-why-we-must-call-time-out-on-tiktok/