North Korea

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9c/Coat_of_Arms_of_North_Korea.svg/500px-Coat_of_Arms_of_North_Korea.svg.png

coat of arms is curious

Not that hilarious:http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/50106000/jpg/_50106624_010705244-1.jpg

South Korea's west sea island of Yeonpyeong, hit by at least 50 artillery shells abruptly fired by North Korea, remained in a state of chaos on Tuesday, with its mountains and civilian homes ablaze with fire, a local government official said.

A spokesman for Incheon Metropolitan City, to which Yeonpyeong Island belongs, said at least four island residents were wounded by the North Korean artillery attacks that began early Tuesday afternoon.

http://cache.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/9/2010/11/ohitson.jpg

Not good. What do they think they're up to?

PS like the coat of arms - nice to see a country in 2010 still trading on its ability to generate electricity

1023: The BBC's John Sudworth in Seoul says there has been no sense of panic in the capital

Too much to worry about in the world lately...

http://www.koreaherald.com/national/Detail.jsp?newsMLId=20101123000840

The firing came as the South was carrying out a live-fire exercise in waters off the Bangnyeong Island and the Yeonpyeong Island as part of the annual nine-day Hoguk Exercise, aimed at enhancing interoperability and defense capabilities against North Korea.

so... South Korea were doing a live-fire exercise off the coast, on the border with North Korea? And then the North Koreans... shot at the same island? So confusing.

http://cl.ly/1B0H3j323N0h1D3f272B

MR IL TEAR DOWN THIS DMZ

tracer that link says 'forbidden'

this is fucking scary

Not that confusing. South Korea fired into disputed (but empty) waters (as in, literally the water, or so I thought). North Korea responded by firing shells into disputed but modestly populated lil island, killing a few Marines and scaring the bejesus out of civilians.

Scary thing about North Korea is not the country going to war, but more or less accidentally/crazily forcing a war. At which point we will all be dazzled by the elaborate and colorful choreography of its military formations.

lol the war is still going on iirc

There is quite a lot of spin happening, apparently most media outlets are not reporting that US troups were accompanying the South Koreans on their "training exercize" conducted as close to the disputed border with North Korea as the South Korean govt would allow.

So what are toy saying? NK's response was justified? I doubt these exercises were that unusual or provocative.

this is fucking scary

― goole, Tuesday, November 23, 2010 10:52 AM (2 hours ago) Bookmark

why

not being snarky: but srsly, why? is it that NK might loose a nuke at seoul? can they even do that? if so, then, agreed. but otherwise it seems like any escalation between the two would result in a swift decimation of NK's forces. i am prob naive and uninformed (the usual), but i can't see china seriously backing NK in a way that would prove legitimately dangerous to itself and the rest of the world. always thought their relationship was one between a giant and his kooky brother. like they'd flex at ppl planning aggression, but if the kooky brother does something really stupid, they'll let him get what's coming to him.

see? nothing to worry about.

10,000 artillery pieces aimed at Seoul, missiles that can easily reach japan, a million man army with heavy armor. I think there is plenty to worry about. That doesn't even include the humanitarian crisis that would come with the sudden collapse of the PRK.

xpost

So what are toy saying? NK's response was justified? I doubt these exercises were that unusual or provocative.

― Super Cub, Tuesday, November 23, 2010 11:08 AM (1 minute ago)

I'm sure there are plenty of places to conduct "training exercises" that aren't on a disputed border with a rogue state for one. Tagging along nuclear-armed US ships sure doesn't help matters either.

I mean, I'm no fan of NK foreign policies but surely there are more progressive of diplomacy other than "don't cross this line" taunts and bringing along your big brother in case shit gets heated which it did.

prog forms of dipl^^

ok! like i said: uninformed. sorta thought the NK military was emaciated and woefully underequipped (~stereotypes~).

all that said: is THIS RIGHT NOW genuinely scary? i thought little skirmishes were sorta par for the course in that neck of the woods?

but i can't see china seriously backing NK in a way that would prove legitimately dangerous to itself and the rest of the world

lol kingdom of serbia? idk how legit that is but i guess its the fear

via blogs it seems like sk feels they p much ~have~ to shrug this off so its nbd

could use a TOMBOT on this thread

lol kingdom of serbia? idk how legit that is but i guess its the fear

via blogs it seems like sk feels they p much ~have~ to shrug this off so its nbd

― Lamp, Tuesday, November 23, 2010 1:16 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark

i see that comparison, yeah. but i guess since, as super cub pointed out, the stakes actually ARE so high that that makes it seem ~less~ likely for what seems to me to be a pretty routine flare-up (didn't nk shoot down a fukkin plane at some point recently??). noone knew that WWI would develop, there was simply nothing like that in recorded history (challopy, but bear with me). whereas, we can make some pretty decent assumptions about the human cost of a massive escalation on the korean peninsula, and i don't think anyone wants to go there (except maybe for il cuz he's fourloko)

(didn't nk shoot down a fukkin plane at some point recently??)

they allegedly sank a sk warship

they totally did.

how ilx covered it:

sooooo...

― long time listener, first time balla (history mayne), Thursday, May 20, 2010 9:45 AM (6 months ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

lol legernd

― MPx4A, Thursday, May 20, 2010 10:35 AM (6 months ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

Hello new peninsular war (had to be careful typing that)

― Neil S, Thursday, May 20, 2010 12:51 PM (6 months ago) Bookmark

imho if any serious hostilities actually erupt the country that will have the biggest headaches over it (well aside from NK and SK lol) is China. they will either have to leave their 'kooky brother' to be decimated by foreign forces, which would be a massive loss of face and regional power, or back NK in a conflict that basically can't be won, sapping resources, etc.

obviously it's not in anyone's interest - NK, or China's - to have a nuke hit Seoul so if that happens there will be a complete political realignment in the area to say the least.

my understanding is that with the handover in power between the very sick jong-il and very young jong-un, our ability to understand why things are happening out of NK has become a little darker

as far as US ships accompanying the yearly exercize, this just happened two days ago:

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/11/surprise-north-korea-builds-a-huge-new-uranium-plant/

they allegedly sank a sk warship

― fwiw: lol iirc sb'd u tbqh (dan m), Tuesday, November 23, 2010 11:21 AM (7 minutes ago)

yes and I can only imagine what the spin-less account of what happened with this was, iirc Obama backed away from it saying something "we need to process our intelligence" suggesting that the SK sub was again straddling that border. then you have the korean american idiots trying to run people out (and back over?) the border and it takes Clinton himself to poach their asses back to the states. Yes, NK is guilty of many things but we (US/SK) sure like fucking with them and getting outraged when they do respond.

and NK should be shown respect why exactly

dont tickle the bear

"Our revolutionary forces will continue to mount merciless military strikes without hesitation if the puppets in the South trespass even 0.0001 millimeters into our waters," North Korea's military command said, according to South Korea's Yonap news agency.

BREAKING

http://grab.by/7xYV

might be going to korea in a few months, hope im there when the dmz comes down and millions of bewildered n koreans flood into the capitalist paradise

and NK should be shown respect why exactly

― in a style known as "Early Cleveland" (Shakey Mo Collier), Tuesday, November 23, 2010 11:35 AM (4 minutes ago)

i personally know you're not a neo-con hawk but this is the kind of response i'd expect from one!

i think it's pretty clear this will come to not much, because yes SK has no real choice but to suck it up.

though to an american audience this is always about america (and our ships are around, so it partly is about the US in real terms anyway) so, if you couldn't guess how this conversation is going to go:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/253821/north-korea-and-ripple-effects-obamas-foreign-policy-victor-davis-hanson

man i always forget how close seoul is to the border

also btw going to google maps and looking at nk is eerie. the level of detail is INSANE, except that it doesn't display any demographic data whatsoever (duh). no towns, no roads, no nothing. just high-def pictures of towns that may or may not exist. crrepy

Can't wait for the animated Taiwanese news video of all this.

South Korea can't do anything, and my impression is that South Korea wouldn't want to do anything even if it would be relatively "easy." There just isn't a political will to attack NK, especially among younger generations of Koreans. Most seem to view NK as a dangerous and sad country, not a rival/enemy. The South is all about managing the demise of the PRK with as little chaos and bloodshed possible.

xpost

Most seem to view NK as a dangerous and sad country, not a rival/enemy. The South is all about managing the demise of the PRK with as little chaos and bloodshed possible.

isn't this pretty much what the entire world thinks (at a diplomatic level)? that the end of the PRK will be a relatively quiet one, and that the main thing will be what to do with all the people, not actually blowing stuff up? i mean i really do think of NK as the planet's crazy cat lady---like its kinda hilarious and weird until you remember that its really, really awful to live there, in all likelihood, and the neighborhood will be better off when it goes away

It's scary because it's a heavily armed country with nothing to lose, known for its unpredictability and isolation, not to mention its bellicose saber-rattling, that currently may or may not be in the midst of a transition of power from one notorious despot to his mysterious son. And it's not simply a matter of disputed waters or whatever. NK disputes everything but its own all-powerful authority, which is partly maintained by its irrational military mentality. (Irrational in the sense that it feeds and clothes the army while the people starve, I should say).

The South is all about managing the demise of the PRK with as little chaos and bloodshed possible.

This. But unfortunately, the pantomime of mutual antagonism must continue, which increases the chance of one or both parties being pushed into a war neither really wants, especially when things like this result in loss of life. Like, what if NK had admitted to sinking that ship? Would SK have had any choice but to retaliate? Dunno.

i personally know you're not a neo-con hawk but this is the kind of response i'd expect from one!

I just think humoring lunatics is a fool's game, tbh. you will never win. they will still BE LUNATICS

well right, but i think that goes along with what JIC just said---it's less about "humoring lunatics" like yr patting them on the head oh you, and more about understanding fully that they ARE lunatics and that everyone is better off if let them lunatic themselves into an early grave. nb the everyone in the previous sentence explicitly does not include the people that actually live there, who are getting the short end in pretty much any scenario that doesn't involve the immediate dissolution of the DPRK and a massive influx of supportive services from around the world

I guess the other thing is I just don't see any winning scenarios for the PRK here - I agree obviously the ideal solution is to manage their collapse with the least possible bloodshed but otoh I think they are a bit of a paper tiger. they can't nuke seoul without fucking over themselves as well, and I'm kinda dubious that a starved, oppressed, ignorant populace makes for a dangerous and efficient military. but what do I know...

xp

Shakey, NK should certainly be shown "respect". (NB: This is not the same thing as respect.)

The reasons for this are myriad. NK has a duly constituted government. It may be constituted of shitheels and thugs, but it is a government all the same and international law, such as it is, "respects" such entities. Look how well it worked to decide to impose regime change in Iraq, for no better reason than its government was constituted of shitheels and thugs, and we imputed they had nuclear ambitions.

Beyond this, the practical reasons why a war there would be an utter disaster compared to maintaining the status quo would fill a book.

So, please refrain from knee-jerk reactions that wouold serve you better in a barroom brawl than in diplomatic relations. It's just such instinctive disdain that lets people like neo-cons whip up a nice little war for us with 85% favorable polling -- before the first shot is fired, of course -- that turn into "long slogs" that cost a trillion dollars or more.

Iraq not really the same scenario here, Dubya's "Axis of Evil" nonsense notwithstanding

well it IS in the int'l relations sense. like, the DPRK actually is a country with some semblance of administrative unity. it isn't somalia, you know? so unless you actively want to provoke someone with an army, you should probably toe the literal and figurative line

It's entirely possible that a war would result in the rapid collapse of the PRK, and the North Korean's love of the Great Leader (and willingness to fight) would instantly evaporate. The whole thing could tumble like a house of cards.

On the other hand...

xxxposts

Surely a government that willfully neglects its people in favor of military build-up forfeits some of its claim to international legitimacy.

btw I'm not advocating for invasion or anything here I just thought Shasta was being a bit OTT with his implication that the US/SK deliberately provoked NK here. the DRP is CRAZY, they will and have used ANY LITTLE THING as a provocation. trying to avoid provoking them is like tryign to keep the sun from coming up.

xp