North Korea

prog forms of dipl^^

ok! like i said: uninformed. sorta thought the NK military was emaciated and woefully underequipped (~stereotypes~).

all that said: is THIS RIGHT NOW genuinely scary? i thought little skirmishes were sorta par for the course in that neck of the woods?

but i can't see china seriously backing NK in a way that would prove legitimately dangerous to itself and the rest of the world

lol kingdom of serbia? idk how legit that is but i guess its the fear

via blogs it seems like sk feels they p much ~have~ to shrug this off so its nbd

could use a TOMBOT on this thread

lol kingdom of serbia? idk how legit that is but i guess its the fear

via blogs it seems like sk feels they p much ~have~ to shrug this off so its nbd

― Lamp, Tuesday, November 23, 2010 1:16 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark

i see that comparison, yeah. but i guess since, as super cub pointed out, the stakes actually ARE so high that that makes it seem ~less~ likely for what seems to me to be a pretty routine flare-up (didn't nk shoot down a fukkin plane at some point recently??). noone knew that WWI would develop, there was simply nothing like that in recorded history (challopy, but bear with me). whereas, we can make some pretty decent assumptions about the human cost of a massive escalation on the korean peninsula, and i don't think anyone wants to go there (except maybe for il cuz he's fourloko)

(didn't nk shoot down a fukkin plane at some point recently??)

they allegedly sank a sk warship

they totally did.

how ilx covered it:

sooooo...

― long time listener, first time balla (history mayne), Thursday, May 20, 2010 9:45 AM (6 months ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

lol legernd

― MPx4A, Thursday, May 20, 2010 10:35 AM (6 months ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

Hello new peninsular war (had to be careful typing that)

― Neil S, Thursday, May 20, 2010 12:51 PM (6 months ago) Bookmark

imho if any serious hostilities actually erupt the country that will have the biggest headaches over it (well aside from NK and SK lol) is China. they will either have to leave their 'kooky brother' to be decimated by foreign forces, which would be a massive loss of face and regional power, or back NK in a conflict that basically can't be won, sapping resources, etc.

obviously it's not in anyone's interest - NK, or China's - to have a nuke hit Seoul so if that happens there will be a complete political realignment in the area to say the least.

my understanding is that with the handover in power between the very sick jong-il and very young jong-un, our ability to understand why things are happening out of NK has become a little darker

as far as US ships accompanying the yearly exercize, this just happened two days ago:

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/11/surprise-north-korea-builds-a-huge-new-uranium-plant/

they allegedly sank a sk warship

― fwiw: lol iirc sb'd u tbqh (dan m), Tuesday, November 23, 2010 11:21 AM (7 minutes ago)

yes and I can only imagine what the spin-less account of what happened with this was, iirc Obama backed away from it saying something "we need to process our intelligence" suggesting that the SK sub was again straddling that border. then you have the korean american idiots trying to run people out (and back over?) the border and it takes Clinton himself to poach their asses back to the states. Yes, NK is guilty of many things but we (US/SK) sure like fucking with them and getting outraged when they do respond.

and NK should be shown respect why exactly

dont tickle the bear

"Our revolutionary forces will continue to mount merciless military strikes without hesitation if the puppets in the South trespass even 0.0001 millimeters into our waters," North Korea's military command said, according to South Korea's Yonap news agency.

BREAKING

http://grab.by/7xYV

might be going to korea in a few months, hope im there when the dmz comes down and millions of bewildered n koreans flood into the capitalist paradise

and NK should be shown respect why exactly

― in a style known as "Early Cleveland" (Shakey Mo Collier), Tuesday, November 23, 2010 11:35 AM (4 minutes ago)

i personally know you're not a neo-con hawk but this is the kind of response i'd expect from one!

i think it's pretty clear this will come to not much, because yes SK has no real choice but to suck it up.

though to an american audience this is always about america (and our ships are around, so it partly is about the US in real terms anyway) so, if you couldn't guess how this conversation is going to go:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/253821/north-korea-and-ripple-effects-obamas-foreign-policy-victor-davis-hanson

man i always forget how close seoul is to the border

also btw going to google maps and looking at nk is eerie. the level of detail is INSANE, except that it doesn't display any demographic data whatsoever (duh). no towns, no roads, no nothing. just high-def pictures of towns that may or may not exist. crrepy

Can't wait for the animated Taiwanese news video of all this.

South Korea can't do anything, and my impression is that South Korea wouldn't want to do anything even if it would be relatively "easy." There just isn't a political will to attack NK, especially among younger generations of Koreans. Most seem to view NK as a dangerous and sad country, not a rival/enemy. The South is all about managing the demise of the PRK with as little chaos and bloodshed possible.

xpost

Most seem to view NK as a dangerous and sad country, not a rival/enemy. The South is all about managing the demise of the PRK with as little chaos and bloodshed possible.

isn't this pretty much what the entire world thinks (at a diplomatic level)? that the end of the PRK will be a relatively quiet one, and that the main thing will be what to do with all the people, not actually blowing stuff up? i mean i really do think of NK as the planet's crazy cat lady---like its kinda hilarious and weird until you remember that its really, really awful to live there, in all likelihood, and the neighborhood will be better off when it goes away

It's scary because it's a heavily armed country with nothing to lose, known for its unpredictability and isolation, not to mention its bellicose saber-rattling, that currently may or may not be in the midst of a transition of power from one notorious despot to his mysterious son. And it's not simply a matter of disputed waters or whatever. NK disputes everything but its own all-powerful authority, which is partly maintained by its irrational military mentality. (Irrational in the sense that it feeds and clothes the army while the people starve, I should say).

The South is all about managing the demise of the PRK with as little chaos and bloodshed possible.

This. But unfortunately, the pantomime of mutual antagonism must continue, which increases the chance of one or both parties being pushed into a war neither really wants, especially when things like this result in loss of life. Like, what if NK had admitted to sinking that ship? Would SK have had any choice but to retaliate? Dunno.

i personally know you're not a neo-con hawk but this is the kind of response i'd expect from one!

I just think humoring lunatics is a fool's game, tbh. you will never win. they will still BE LUNATICS

well right, but i think that goes along with what JIC just said---it's less about "humoring lunatics" like yr patting them on the head oh you, and more about understanding fully that they ARE lunatics and that everyone is better off if let them lunatic themselves into an early grave. nb the everyone in the previous sentence explicitly does not include the people that actually live there, who are getting the short end in pretty much any scenario that doesn't involve the immediate dissolution of the DPRK and a massive influx of supportive services from around the world

I guess the other thing is I just don't see any winning scenarios for the PRK here - I agree obviously the ideal solution is to manage their collapse with the least possible bloodshed but otoh I think they are a bit of a paper tiger. they can't nuke seoul without fucking over themselves as well, and I'm kinda dubious that a starved, oppressed, ignorant populace makes for a dangerous and efficient military. but what do I know...

xp

Shakey, NK should certainly be shown "respect". (NB: This is not the same thing as respect.)

The reasons for this are myriad. NK has a duly constituted government. It may be constituted of shitheels and thugs, but it is a government all the same and international law, such as it is, "respects" such entities. Look how well it worked to decide to impose regime change in Iraq, for no better reason than its government was constituted of shitheels and thugs, and we imputed they had nuclear ambitions.

Beyond this, the practical reasons why a war there would be an utter disaster compared to maintaining the status quo would fill a book.

So, please refrain from knee-jerk reactions that wouold serve you better in a barroom brawl than in diplomatic relations. It's just such instinctive disdain that lets people like neo-cons whip up a nice little war for us with 85% favorable polling -- before the first shot is fired, of course -- that turn into "long slogs" that cost a trillion dollars or more.

Iraq not really the same scenario here, Dubya's "Axis of Evil" nonsense notwithstanding

well it IS in the int'l relations sense. like, the DPRK actually is a country with some semblance of administrative unity. it isn't somalia, you know? so unless you actively want to provoke someone with an army, you should probably toe the literal and figurative line

It's entirely possible that a war would result in the rapid collapse of the PRK, and the North Korean's love of the Great Leader (and willingness to fight) would instantly evaporate. The whole thing could tumble like a house of cards.

On the other hand...

xxxposts

Surely a government that willfully neglects its people in favor of military build-up forfeits some of its claim to international legitimacy.

btw I'm not advocating for invasion or anything here I just thought Shasta was being a bit OTT with his implication that the US/SK deliberately provoked NK here. the DRP is CRAZY, they will and have used ANY LITTLE THING as a provocation. trying to avoid provoking them is like tryign to keep the sun from coming up.

xp

of course i should add that even tho i'm "against killing" and wars and all, i occasionally wonder why the US doesn't just ace ppl like kim jong il. i mean, i KNOW why, but i've been conditioned by movies to assume that the assassination of a despot is a walk in the park, diplomacy be damned.

lol NK probably WOULD use the sun coming up as a pretext for shooting something somewhere

not sure what shasta was thinking, but i think that it's precisely BECAUSE the DPRK is so easily provoked that it seems a little foolish to involve US forces with any provocation (and certainly to encourage it).

The whole thing could tumble like a house of cards.

Echo of the infamous "they will welcome us as liberators" nonsense, pre-Iraq war.

oh come on we have what 50K troops there, we're all over everything

xp

Echo of the infamous "they will welcome us as liberators" nonsense, pre-Iraq war.

I dunno how much I need to emphasize this but Iraq /= NK

Echo of the infamous "they will welcome us as liberators" nonsense, pre-Iraq war.

― Aimless, Tuesday, November 23, 2010 2:07 PM (16 seconds ago) Bookmark

ok, now you're pushing it a bit. iraq may have been dysfunctional and bad, but the DPRK is literally a million times worse, if we're going to conjure up a spectrum of Bad To Live In.

1023: The BBC's John Sudworth in Seoul says there has been no sense of panic in the capital

― James Mitchell, Tuesday, 23 November 2010 21:33 (Yesterday) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

After 50+ years of having a billion DPRK rockets pointed at them they're probably inured to the threat of annihilation.

I just think humoring lunatics is a fool's game, tbh. you will never win. they will still BE LUNATICS

― in a style known as "Early Cleveland" (Shakey Mo Collier), Tuesday, November 23, 2010 2:56 PM (14 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

feel like this is a pretty know nothing pov

please to spell out course of action wherein DPRK doesn't see "provocation" in every little goddamned thing

especially because those "provocations" are used for domestic audience and win points in internal power struggles.

I mean it's pretty obvious that NK orchestrates these mini-crisis for whatever reason.

love how you can be all THERES NOTHING YOU CAN DO ITS JUST NUTJOBS and then demand a detailed policy proposal in response, are you sure youre not the lunatic xp

NK is like a needy, violent kid - if you don't pay attention to it, it will ensure you pay attention to it. This has been the country's negotiation strategy for years. Demand crazy stuff, get mired in determining a compromise, establish a default detente, then do it over again. The relationship between NK and the USA has largely been one of extorter and patient extortion victim - they threaten to go nuke, we offer them food and fuel to not go nuke. Whatever advantage NK has in actually going nuke seems less than what is has threatening to go nuke, but who knows what makes these dudes tick.

Also, the relationship between the US and SK is a weird one as well. S Koreans seem to resent the US presence in their region, but at the same time recognize why we're there. I have no idea what would happen if we just left, though. Would NK consider that a victory? Does it matter?

In some ways NK reminds me a bit of Albania. Crazed despot isolates country, convinced an invasion is imminent. (Hoxha severed ties with ostensible Communist allies China and Russia, I think, because he was so paranoid). Albania is even littered with tens of thousands of bomb shelters, one in virtually every backyard. But of course, Albania didn't even pose a hypothetical threat to its neighbors.

I don't have a shiny uniform and a population to oppress so yeah I'm pretty sure

xp

love how you can be all THERES NOTHING YOU CAN DO ITS JUST NUTJOBS and then demand a detailed policy proposal in response, are you sure youre not the lunatic

but maybe I am a lunatic because I don't see how these are mutually exclusive positions. I DON'T think there's anything we can do because yes lol nutjobs. You seem to think there IS something we can do. Burden of proof is on you.

this thread: only just now hilarious

point is you make the laziest possible argument, one clearly not based on any particular knowledge of the situation, and then demand that people humor and educate you, in conclusion you must be a crazy person