Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

Commodities are an excellent guess as to what sort of sponge might absorb the cheap credit, assuming the Fed cuts interest rates.

A word to the wise: if you try to hoard toilet paper, the acids in the paper will slowly render it into fluff. Save your mail order catalogs instead. If you hoard tobacco, then hoard loose, cut tobacco in hermetically sealed tins; cartons of cigarettes will go stale and dry out. (insert old-fashioned emoticon here)

http://www.waxidermy.com/bbs/images/smiles/old.gif

"fiat currency"

i.e. currency

im scared

as barry bigpicture points out, the most bullish thing going on right now is how much of a bear everybody is being! the psychology of the mainstream press espousing the idea of a recession either ongoing right now or about to come down hard is actually GOOD NEWS for the economy overall because it means the big players are more risk aware and will most likely contribute to softening the blow

e.g. the same way big magazine cover stories on booms typically signal approximate peak points, when they're about busts, they can signal troughs

kind of a bit late to be risk-aware though?

i'd also say the trough is when it ceases to be news. still seems to be very early in the curve to me

I think busts/recessions are stickier and slower than booms, for sure, but all this talk to the negative seems encouraging, especially compared to the rose-colored spin of the past two years or more. Large firms calling a recession and saying we're already in it bodes well for the short term because it means an end to not admitting things are fucked. Bernanke should now stick to his guns and keep a tight grip on the money supply IMO.

I'm leaning towards deflation at this point

it seems inevitable for a number of commodities already (labor, shipping costs, overhead/housing)

Not sure if this is the right place to post this, but this was pretty interesting:

http://nplusonemag.com/hedge-fund-interview.html

Btw, I'm pretty sure that interview should be dated January 2008, not 2007 as they have there.

ever notice how the stock market "plunges" on Friday, then "rallies" the next Monday?

The stock market is like one of those delicate upper crust women from the melodramas of the 1890s, always fainting and reviving.

how else will you afford coke

xp

friday sell-off for brokers weekend yayo fund is #1 theory

Citibank goes 'oops'

citygroup's been around (in some form) for 195 years?!?!

i am so happy citi is putting my credit card finance charges to good use. way to go guys.

us ilxors are all in the wrong lines of work!

"i made you a pension but i losed it"

the connection between car part thefts and the commodity bubble

from the linked article:

Handfield says a tightening economy may be spurring the spike in metal thefts. He says Irvine police recently arrested a man stealing metals from construction sites. He was a mortgage banker using his luxury Lexus SUV to haul the loot, Handfield says.

!!!

Where does a thief even go to sell their ill-gotten scraps of metal?

Recycling yards. No questions asked, for the most part.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/01/ny-times-education-of-ben-bernanke.html

we gonna die

we gonna die

-- Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved, Sunday, 13 January 2008 17:19 (4 days ago)

At least you are consistent in your approach.

http://img2.timeinc.net/ew/dynamic/imgs/040713/165732__robocop_l.jpg

BLAMMO

Well, tomorrow I sell my mutual fund. It made me 80% last year and is now tanking like a barrel full of tanked monkeys.

ILX follow my lead!

i'm too wet behind the ear in that dept - i have to ride this bitch out.

economy is better than ever

took a $400+ bath on the 401k this quarter... will be moving to under-the-mattress option later today.

i'm starting to think a savings account is a better investment than either a mutual fund or a house

savings in which currency?

good point

my savings account pays about half of inflation

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v134/tracerhand/squeezethatmoneybrother.jpg

In the current climate there is no safe haven for your money.

The safest investments will be those which have immediate practical value to you personally: tools, practical clothes and shoes, acquiring a valuable skill - that sort of thing. The perfecta would be a tool that you would use for yourself, is not common, and could conceivably be turned into a small side business to earn a few bucks.

The riskiest will be those where you have no firsthand knowledge or experience, the "Argentinian Railway Bonds are a sure bet" or "the Thai auto industry is going to be the next big thing" kind of investment.

The best investment of all is yourself. Skills

Sometimes a skill is rather forlorn without the tools to make it go.

an interesting chart from our friends at calculated risk:

http://bp1.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/R5TbFlX1msI/AAAAAAAABfk/WCQnqA1I_5A/s1600/SP500MonthlyCloseChange.jpg

and for the REALLY antsy ILXors, the same chart from the Great Depression through today:

http://bp0.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/R5TrdVX1mtI/AAAAAAAABfs/vqPdabZ5Or4/s1600/DOWCloseMax.jpg

blogspot do not allow hotlinking bro

SQUEEZE THAT MONEY BRO

bernanke needs to start saying bro

blogspot do not allow hotlinking bro

my bad!

Bear Markets and Recessions -- check out the charts.

at any rate, tomorrow (1/22/08) may be very interesting indeed.

or, if y'all prefer, a visual representation:

http://img71.photobucket.com/albums/v216/spinnerau1/Snopes/Wet_roller_coaster.jpg

b/c this threads needs some MORE indices to watch plummet in real time:

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/0b/_/_n225

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/0b/_/_hsi

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/0b/_/_ftse

I love the existence of "stock market futures" -- I think we should start a stock futures futures market so we can get even further ahead of the curve

mo' futures index porn:

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/instrument/1.0/%5EFTSE/chart;range=1d/image;size=239x110

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/instrument/1.0/%5EGDAXI/chart;range=1d/image;size=239x110

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/instrument/1.0/%5EFCHI/chart;range=1d/image;size=239x110

I think we should start a stock futures futures market so we can get even further ahead of the curve

until eventually the market foresees its own death and goes on a long drinking binge.