the most important election of your lifetime: 2012 american general election thread

there is good reason to believe that peoples opinion of romney will sour after half a year of him on tv every day and there is some reason to believe that the economy will be a bit better in nov

You can also say the opposite, and about Obama - and I'm not being contrarian. If you're unemployed in Akron and voted for Obama in '08 it's possible that you're sick of seeing him on the teevee.

yeah but that's something that's already true for a lot of people and is 'in the numbers' in a way that peoples future dislike of romney is not

Not that I have too much faith in this kind of forecasting this far out, but the RCP method strikes me as pretty goofy and susceptible... like, Georgia for example, their average puts Romney +12, but that's because they're averaging the two polls where Romney is the furthest ahead, one of which is from December and presumably not very useful at all. The one that gives Romney the smallest advantage (+3) they don't include in the average, for reasons that escape me - maybe it's explained somewhere. Anyway, basically it's an average of only two polls. Not to say Obama has any prospect of winning Georgia (it went McCain 52-47 in Obama's surge election) but you know what I'm getting at.

One thing I often hear on TV (from all of Alfred's favourite people) is that impressions of the economy tend to be frozen in place five or six months out from the election--i.e., that some improvement in the late summer/early fall won't mean much. Example: Bush in '92. I don't claim to know whether this is true in general.

Also weird is how all of their grey "toss up states," if you actually click on them, turn out to be Obama states using their math, except for Arizona, Missouri and North Carolina. Presumably there's some other metric involved but it's just odd to me - it's like they think they have this all figured out with the numbers, but they sort of know those results MUST be out of whack because they would turn the whole map blue and it's pretty clear that's not going to happen IRL - - so they turn a bunch of them grey but then it's just like, hey guys, maybe it's too soon to be doing this kind of super-electoral-predicto-map.

the safe bet is to never take anything said about politics on tv to have any value, ever

"frozen in place" probably FAIRLY true? I mean it makes sense to me instinctively, since the actual effect on people's lives of new bad or good news may take a while to really sink in. But it doesn't take long to turn it into an ad ("Well, the latest news is out - let the facts speak for themselves...") so if it fits a larger theme it'll stick.

2008 might be an interesting test case of this, really.

Pundits conflate "the economy" with "my finances." I've been doing better financially the last two years despite the condition of Florida (chaos and disorder, thanks to the most conservative governor in our history) and the uneven national recovery but doing worse during the Bush boom years. That's why Reagan's question in '80 ("Are YOU better off now than you were four years ago?") was sharper than Mark Halperin asking voters "Do you think the economy's improving or getting worse?")

*doing worse = did worse

Probably just as likely that in 6 months everybody will be used to what they dislike about Romney and it won't be as big an issue. And I do think a lot of people vote for "change" when they don't like where they are now, without thinking too much about whether the change will be for the better or for the worse.

massive x-post

the state of conservative coalescence

http://www.salon.com/2012/04/18/the_gop%E2%80%99s_very_peculiar_unity/singleton/

Ehhh - I wouldn't be SO sure? Like, Kerry was the presumptive nominee quite early, didn't mean Bush and Rove weren't able to load up his negatives (by completely making shit up) for the rest of the campaign.

But frankly, in the land of dirty tricks and ratfuckery, what would help Obama most would be to have a shadow operation somehow within the GOP, launching continued volleys at Romney from the right and trying to get them vote for a third-party candidate to "send a message to Washington" about "real conservative values." Forget the independents and keep eroding that soft support he has within his party. My dream is that Newt Gingrich actually will play this role without realizing it, but I realize that people have third-party Republican split fantasies every four years and it never goes anywhere.

Ehhh - I wouldn't be SO sure? Like, Kerry was the presumptive nominee quite early, didn't mean Bush and Rove weren't able to load up his negatives (by completely making shit up) for the rest of the campaign.

well all things considered kerry was probably a 'stronger candidate' than romney is and actually had fewer negatives to exploit...the effect of the swiftboat type stuff was really marginal

but his opponent didn't have to run w/ 8% unemployment

lol @ the mere thought of Change We Can Believe In having a dirty tricks operation at all, much less one in the GOP.

(Iatee,)

Growing up, I'd get pretty excited about NASCAR races. And I still love them. That's why I want to be the one to tell you that the folks planning the 2012 Democratic National Convention have figured out a way for you to show your support -- on a NASCAR stock car.

The convention's host committee is going to debut an official "Powered by the American People" car. And they want to put your name on it.

When you become a sponsor by donating just $5 or more, your name will appear on the car.

For me, this is a no-brainer. All you have to do is tell them how to spell your name, and you're off.

Sponsor the "Powered by the American People" stock car.

Grassroots support is the only way this convention is going to be a success. The 2012 convention will be funded by supporters like you, not special interests, lobbyists or political action committees -- and that's why we're not putting any corporate logos on the car. Just the names of folks like you who step up to make this happen.

The convention is going to kick off with a free Labor Day celebration at the Charlotte Motor Speedway, where everyone who comes out will see the official stock car.

Is your name going to be on it?

https//:charlottein2012.com/Powered_By_the_American_People

Let us know soon.

Messina

Jim Messina
Campaign Manager
Obama for America

"absolutely! my name is 'Liqmi Balszak'"

i'm opting for Heywood Jablome

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/296373/why-romney-has-real-chance-victor-davis-hanson

wow, that was a lot of bullshit piled on top of a couple salient observations about unemployment & voter enthusiasm

I don't mean to hate on Charlotte but fuckin A of all the places in NC to go. Hold the fucking convention at Kill Devil Hills or something. Asheville, try Asheville, plenty of weed in Asheville. Raleigh. Wrightsville Beach. Build a convention hall in Henderson, play a lotta Coltrane at the convention, late spacey shit, it'll be cool. No no underrated A. We gotta go to fucking Charlotte. Things'll be super-cool in Charhttp://www.johnnyblazed.com/Tim%20and%20Me%20pre-fight%20party%20Charlotte%20NC%2012-8-01.jpg

Sort of blows my mind that it's going to be this close between Obama and Romney, solely because Romney is the least human and least empathetic person I have ever seen in my life. It makes sense if you factor in how much Obama threw the Left under a truck.

It makes sense if you factor in how much Obama threw the Left under a truck.

that's really not the issue, the people who're disgusted enough to stay home are extremely low in number. right-wing propaganda machine + few signature accomplishments that can't be framed under multiple narratives + jobs/economy not zipping upwards fast enough for public to feel that Reagan-y sky's-the-limit good feeling = problems for the incumbent imo

Obama will still waste this clown, there will literally be an ad that's just the "corporations are people, my friend" exhange with no other voiceover

aero otm

yeah, it takes a couple hundred words to illustrate Obama's respect for corporate peoplehood.

maybe I will do an Occupy Charlotte trek paired w/ sidetrip to Raleigh! seems like a good week for it.

there will literally be an ad that's just the "corporations are people, my friend" exhange

I would hope so, but I've seen these sorts of golden opportunities overlooked or refused in the past, by candidates I thought would have smarter advisors. At the upper reaches of national campaigns you can't count on anyone knowing what ordinary people care about, except as abstractions based on polling. Obama is too deep in his cocoon by now to be in charge of these decisions. Maybe Howard Dean will be smart enough to do it, but idk.

Howard Dean?? isn't he two chairmen ago?

who keeps track of DNC chairmen?

not me, but he's yesterday's Scream.

yeah, it takes a couple hundred words to illustrate Obama's respect for corporate peoplehood.

this isn't nothing btw.

like, u don't need to be zizek to realize that the subtlety of the case you need to make is correlated to the volume of the crime.

I know, I'm just lamenting

look you guys I agree with you. it's just that Obama is presently in the "to make the case against me, you have to have a few minutes and not be crazy" position. that eliminates most of the people who want to unseat him, since they are of the distracted-by-light-on-a-bumper strain

"8% unemployment"

That's all Romney is gonna say, and that will be enough for some to vote for him.

x-post
Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Florida Dem is the current DNC chair.

What makes this a horse race is that a huge proportion of the voting population do not need to hear a reasonable case made against Obama. They will simply rely on their visceral dislike to guide their vote and Romney needs only to feed that dislike by telling them they are right to feel that way.

the distracted-by-light-on-a-bumper strain

are they related to the distracted-by-awesome-hair strain?

yeah, I caught a Bill Maher clip of Debbie Wasserman Schultz doing the Obama-doesn't-REALLY-support-indefinite-detention dance. Vile.

A significant minority are simply not going to vote for a muslim - nothing racist about that.

Wasserman-Schultz is beloved by her constituency. I can't tell her apart from Ros-Lehtinen tbh.

i think when the stakes seem so high ('the most important election of your lifetime!' but also, more seriously, this is the most public, possibly most powerful position in the world) you kinda psychologically want to hedge your bets about what is possible as much as you can. it's tempting to gird yourself for the possibility that romney wins so that you're not in a state of shock and horror if he does. there are probably other good reasons for wanting to see this as a horserace (to make it more exciting? to not make a prediction that makes you look like a fool? out of hope? out of the realization that the world is full of uncertainty and anything could happen). logically, tho, it's hard for me to accept that it's going to be a close election. everything i've learnt about american politics, and observed in my life, suggests that obama is going to win easily such that it'll be hard to believe that anyone thought he might not.

"Against stupidity even the gods contend in vain."

-- Fredrich Schiller --

pretty interesting unemployment post here from a Republican dude who I got googling around about the unemployment trends. I agree that "8%" is going to sound pretty bad, I assume the Obama campaign is going to hijack a little 99% rhetoric & that'll probably be where it happens. OWS ppl will be v. angry about this, there will be much rage in their self-contained circles.

kinda a truth about history is that ahistorical unpredictable events occur all the time, so any kind of prognostication always comes with the caveat, 'assuming a seismic shift in history doesn't change the facts about everything-'

Reagan won with 7% unemployment

(not to be interpreted as an endorsement of Obbie)

yeah because heaven forbid

1983-07-01 9.4
1983-08-01 9.5
1983-09-01 9.2
1983-10-01 8.8
1983-11-01 8.5
1983-12-01 8.3
1984-01-01 8.0
1984-02-01 7.8
1984-03-01 7.8
1984-04-01 7.7
1984-05-01 7.4
1984-06-01 7.2
1984-07-01 7.5
1984-08-01 7.5
1984-09-01 7.3
1984-10-01 7.4
1984-11-01 7.2

vs

2010-08-01 9.6
2010-09-01 9.5
2010-10-01 9.5
2010-11-01 9.8
2010-12-01 9.4
2011-01-01 9.1
2011-02-01 9.0
2011-03-01 8.9
2011-04-01 9.0
2011-05-01 9.0
2011-06-01 9.1
2011-07-01 9.1
2011-08-01 9.1
2011-09-01 9.0
2011-10-01 8.9
2011-11-01 8.7
2011-12-01 8.5
2012-01-01 8.3
2012-02-01 8.3
2012-03-01 8.2