the most important election of your lifetime: 2012 american general election thread

Now, Saturday night and all day Saturday I'm looking at the model runs, and the model runs come out every three to five hours, depending on which model. It's two p.m., five p.m., eight p.m.

And at eight p.m. Saturday night I see one of the biggest, one of the largest shifts in model forecast I have seen since 1997 when I moved down here and started caring about this stuff and started studying it. Up until Saturday night's eight p.m. model runs, this hurricane was gonna either hit Pensacola or someplace a little further south. Never Tampa. They had moved it away from Tampa by Friday. But they hit the Florida Panhandle, close enough to Tampa. And the primary wind field is on the right side of this thing, so even if it's 50 or 25 miles offshore, the bulk of the wind is right there over Tampa.

You don't need a direct hit, in other words. So Pensacola. Saturday at five o'clock Pensacola. Every model agreed. At eight o'clock, I look at the model runs. Folks, only one of them -- out of about 12, 15 models -- still had it going to Pensacola. Every model had it, at eight o'clock Saturday night, either at New Orleans or Mobile, Alabama, or something in Mississippi. I looked at that. That is a huge spread. That is a huge change in a three-hour period, for the models to move hundreds of miles.

And not once, in all the model runs of the days prior, had New Orleans been in the picture. Maybe a stray model had it going there. Maybe stray model or two over to the Houston area, but outliers. Nowhere near the model consensus. Model consensus was always Pensacola or someplace in the Florida Panhandle, affectionately known here as the Redneck Riviera. Until eight o'clock Saturday night. At eight o'clock Saturday night, Tampa wasn't even in the picture anymore. There wasn't a curve to the north, or even back to the Northeast.

wait a second, since when does rush limbaugh trust the consensus of scientific models?

i don't understand what he's asserting - that the models originally calling it to hit tampa were a conspiracy but now we're seeing the true models? or that the new models showing it hitting NOLA are the conspiracy (in which case, why would anyone conspire to convince ppl that a hurricane was going to hit a place that isn't the republican convention?)

When it supports his ideological goals and will be discarded web it doesn't. As folks like Chris Mooney and Lakoff have pointed out, Republicans are all in favor of science when it supports their moral worldview, like natural gas and oil exploration, f'rinstance.

When it comes to something that threatens their authority, and these are authoritarians, so unquestioned obedience and submission to legitimate authority is what they're all about, they will instantly turn on it.

Progressive folks can do this too, only far fewer times in much different subject areas.

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2012/08/coal_miners_lost_pay_when_mitt.html

xpost

not that this clarifies things much, but the following paragraphs are:

This was a beeline. This is gonna follow the coast of Cuba right up to New Orleans, in every model. So I started sending out e-mails to people, politically flavored e-mails, and said, "Uh-oh, folks! I've been worried about this. I have been concerned every model now says New Orleans. Now, the next hurricane report will be 11 p.m., three hours later, Saturday night. Let's see what they do with it. Let's see what the hurricane center does, because this is a huge shift." At 11 o'clock Saturday night, hurricane center had not changed. It was still Pensacola. Maybe a little left of Pensacola.

So I read the discussion, which is where they tell you how they arrived at their forecast track and other data. And they acknowledged that the model data had moved "precipitously to the west." But for the purposes of continuity with the previous forecast -- and this is almost a quote -- they're gonna leave the track unchanged. And I said, "Okay, well..." Again, I'm alleging no conspiracy. I don't want anybody thinking I'm going somewhere with this. I'm just telling you what happened.

I'm sharing with you my thought process, 'cause I know full well that if you give these people the slightest chance and they're gonna turn this into Katrina and they're gonna scare the hell out of New Orleans and they're gonna revive, "Bush doesn't care about people" and revive all of it. They're gonna politicize everything 'cause they do it. And now they had the model runs allowing them to do it.

Now they had these model runs allowing them to start scaring the hell out of people in New Orleans and make political connections to Bush.

the full transcript is here, if you feel like barfing away your tuesday afternoon.

i think he's trying to argue that they left the official hurricane track unchanged, pointing at pensacola, even though (limbaugh claims) most of the models were pointed at NOLA, because they were trying to get the republicans to cancel the convention. then, once that was accomplished it, "they" were eager to switch the official hurricane track to NOLA so that they could relive the glory of Katrina.

he is not alleging a conspiracy, however.

So I started sending out e-mails to people, politically flavored e-mails,

to vacationers at what we Floridians affectionately call "the redneck Riviera."

the convention was cancelled?

how does he know the hurricane isn't in on the conspiracy? maybe all hurricanes are liberal socialists

well, they are pretty wet

Dems will bow before Cardinal Asshole's skirts too, alla you feverish atheists oughta feel great.

http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/28/dolan-to-offer-prayer-at-democratic-convention/?hp

I feel great, I like doofuses like him shilling.

So this is tonight. Santorum, oh no. :

In addition to the speeches by Ann Romney and Chris Christie, the Romney camp has been billing Rick Santorum’s address tonight, which he’ll deliver during the 7:00 pm ET hour. On yesterday’s conference call, Schriefer said that Santorum’s speech is “going to be particularly good,” and he reminded reporters that Santorum was a “leader in the fight to reform welfare in 90s,” and that he “believes strongly in dignity of work.” So expect the former Pennsylvania senator and GOP presidential candidate to deliver the debunked welfare attack hitting Obama, which would certainly fire up the crowd here.

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/28/13525568-first-thoughts-the-show-must-go-on?lite

he “believes strongly in dignity of work.”

Awesome

Sorry, can I just and they're gonna revive, "Bush doesn't care about people"

well, they are pretty wet

A+

what's up with all these libertarians being so sympathetic to anti-choice fervor?

Isn't the idea that they are so pro-individual that the believe abortion infringes on the natural, inalienable rights of the fetus?

yeah, but why 'leave it to the states'? if they're going with that whole natural, inalienable rights of the fetus line of thinking, then why would some states have laws that allow the tyranny of the majority to trump individual liberty?

which kind of echoes this whole idiotic argument by "moderate" Republicans that omg all life is sooo sacred unless it is conception via rape or incest.

a friend suggested today that it was a good thing that the republican party is pro-life bc their only other ethos is survival of the fittest, so maybe pro-life injects just the tiniest (most misguided/asshole) mitigation to then becoming the party of out-and-out hunting humans for sport and eating your neighbor.

yeah, but why 'leave it to the states'? if they're going with that whole natural, inalienable rights of the fetus line of thinking, then why would some states have laws that allow the tyranny of the majority to trump individual liberty?

Most are just bullshitting. Leaving it to the states is preferable when the Scotus disagrees with them.

cool map http://project.wnyc.org/nyc-republicans/index.html

lol governor's island

lol wow that whole thing

between broadway and 7th, and 32nd and 35th, there are apparently 8 registered voters.

p. sure my neighbor vinnie is one of the 42 repubs in my district

who is registered on governors island, is that where they keep all the governors

lol at my old neighborhood

http://i45.tinypic.com/dvhx1i.png

pretty sure those slightly republican spots (~10% registered republican) are YU and the German Jewish community on Bennett Ave.

eight registered voters in macy's! xp

Not a single Republican in Brooklyn if I'm reading this correctly

i like how super fucking purple is still only 50%

we call that 'staten purple'

eight registered voters in central park, one of whom is gop

Pitchers and Poets ‏@pitchersnpoets
Republicans chanting USA, not allowing the Puerto Rican delegate to speak. This is surreal.

what the fuck is wrong with these people

Anyone else seeing the "Jumah at the DNC" stuff spilling across FB or other places? Story is that the DNC is busing 20,000 Muslims into Charlotte. Story is, of course, 100 percent untrue (it's an independent event, three days before the convention), but you have to spend 10 minutes online to figure that out. Which means that it will very soon be right-wing gospel.

The Romney brood is going to be unavoidable for the next couple of months.

@pitchersnpoets

Hearing from @mattlanger that USA chant was to drown out Ron Paul supporters who were booing Priebus. Didn't hear that but seems feasible.

Malkin's updates have more on all that:

http://michellemalkin.com/2012/08/27/floor-fight-grass-roots-activists-battle-attempt-to-rig-gop-convention-delegate-rules/

Sununu declare”no objections” over massive boos on floor

Some angry republicans:

http://d3j5vwomefv46c.cloudfront.net/photos/full/646158050.gif?key=435277&Expires=1346189429&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIYVGSUJFNRFZBBTA&Signature=AgS6Znph2L4Pq9epPsrF~BKCJbem79FpmxGSDXzIxRf1I7g1M4kgTgZbMYijGRY32UedUj1Bh~awVkx8XurXvVUj1WJ0eDaRUBwntz13YWa5PQ3raaXwHLMRu0d~uH9sslIp8nn4dUbYeupbfiDMiaJjI5yA1132pNXh0M~NpF8_

Are those clothespins gripping the middle of their noses? That seems painful.

man that's crazy

The roll call is quite thrilling. Alabama, American Samoa, everyone loves Mitt.

The worst thing is, lady was over-accessorising BEFORE involving the Clothespin of Chagrin. It's hat OR scarf, not hat AND scarf, duh.

Now I know what punk rock republicans look like

http://i.imgur.com/jfIH4.jpg

its almost like these people are encouraged to be as strange as possible idgi

udgi because u hate america

that's actually Daniel Day-Lewis doin some method acting

tru xp