Magic: The Gathering C/D

this is exactly what happened with Black in AVR - I used to do really well with it because you'd get like 9th pick Bone Splinters and 11th pick Butcher Ghouls

AVR black was a lot harder to draft/build/play well than GTC dimir though imo

oh he mentions 'win rate by popularity' later in the article which i assume is what you're talking about here and apparently orzhov wins that

thats interesting but it's not what i really mean - it's more that given dimir is routinely underdrafted do dimir decks disproportionately benefit from having fewer drafters because the pool of playable commons is lower. also that dimir is getting a knock-on effect from the underdrafting of simic, so that it's current win rate or even win rate by popularity over represents its 'natural' win rate

something that gerry t said in mondays gamestate episode was that he was going to 'just take the best card from the first three packs' and then look to see what was open. i've really liked this strategy so far in gtc because i think drafting strategies are really, really terrible rn. i think - and i may have just been bad at rtr - but because rtr rewarded patience/forcing a lot more people have been over committing to guilds in gtc way too early and there is routinely one guild - almost always simic or dimir - thats really open. so all you have to do is wait for that fifth pick zameck guidmage or fourth pick grisly spectacle and move in.

in the big picture other guild %s suffer from all the people running terrible decks in guilds that weren't at all open, and *nobody* is running dimir when it's not open.

yeah when simic is open it's embarrassingly open

i agree that those winrates are obviously super-skewed by public perception still, but i feel like if everyone had perfect information then the results would be reasonably balanced. i don't think dimir is more than a couple percentage points worse than any other guild on card power level.

also the gold cards in this format tend to make for really strong signals, and it's super important to be in the right guild for your seat, so i wouldn't ever force a guild.

I don't agree that Ruination Wurm sucks. Gruul can get it out turn 5 and only Grisly Spectacle and Angelic Edict take care of it. I think one of the goals in Gruul is to just have the biggest dudes out in the late game and Ruination Wurm is a big honker for 6 mana. Smog Elemental is pretty bad though I would definitely side him in vs. Dimir. Him saying that an 8-drop that says "win the game" wouldn't make his deck sounds really inaccurate. Of course I would play that!

anyway I do agree with a lot of his conclusions as they match up what I've been seeing so far but he is missing the whole part about how when people start drafting Dimir, it'll get a whole lot worse. the fact that Boros really is the best guild in Sealed is pretty telling.

AVR black was a lot harder to draft/build/play well than GTC dimir though imo

I never really felt this way - most of it was just abusing Butcher Ghoul and winning off the back of a Taskmaster or Homicidal Seclusion. I think its weaker than Dimir but it also would become quite clear when nobody was playing it and I would frequently wind up with decks that were nearly mono-black and were almost unbeatable.

cider i think dimirs natural win rate is a decent amount lower than the other guilds because the pool of available commons is lower and theres less redundancy at common compared to the other four guilds. its not about power level. i do think its not so much lower that it makes sense to completely shun the guild and also taking the most open guild is always a better strategy than avoiding/forcing some guilds so it also doesnt actually matter. but i've decided to be super pedantic about this point

anyway i missed the daily last night cuz i decided to actually go out but i put some gloom surgeons in my board and won two 8-mans last night so thanks everyone for that suggestion

sweet, are you using the same maindeck you posted above?

i think so - i may have added a negate for a dispel

4 dimir charm seemed weird to me, its a pretty narrow removal that has some of the same limitations as abrupt decay and devour flesh (not hitting bigger things). how often do you end up using the non-removal modes on it? 3rd mode seems potentially more powerful than it looks but i haven't used it yet.

still not convinced this deck can ever beat a resolved thragtusk but i'll keep messing with it

i think 3 may be correct but i really like all three modes - the last mode is actually a really useful effect in conjunction w/duskmatle seer. i used it to get the last 4 points of damage against someone playing jund last night but it also can help dig for threats while giving shaman fodder. the counter is probably the least useful although mortars is seeing more play now and i like having it as an answer to pillar.

my plan is typically to keep the board pretty clear so that my devour fleshs are live to hit stuff like tusk and olivia. obv would kill to have dismember or go for the throat in this deck but i found utlimate price to be too underwhelming. tragic slip may actually be pretty good and it's something i've put in the sideboard.

yeah i have ultimate price and tragic slip in my board but i don't really want them maindeck. i'm pretty sure i want a counterspell that can hit creatures maindeck though, either syncopate or essence scatter

http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/Article.aspx?x=mtg/daily/deck/1174

Among the most powerful cards in Gatecrash is Burning-Tree Emissary. It has played a powerful supporting role in a variety of strategies. Inspired by smh's deck that went 4–0 in a Daily Event, we built and tested our own updated version of Naya Super-Fast Humans, largely adapted by Zvi Mowshowitz.

haha yeah that deck was like a lightning in a bottle thing, people notice new decks that go 4-0 and i did it at just the right time for a lot of people to notice i guess.

i kind of feel bad that i'm getting credited for it when the guy who built the initial list (NicotineJones on goodgamery forums, not sure who he is irl) has been the source of a bunch of good standard decks over the years and doesn't seem to get credited much.

What do you think about Wolfbitten Captive vs. Experiment One?

captive might actually be better in humans decks since your guys tend to be 1/1 or 2/2 base and don't evolve the experiment much. experiment one is better in decks that play 3/3s and 4/1s and such though

another take on 5-color GTC draft:

http://www.starcitygames.com/article/25711_First-Picking-Prophetic-Prism.html

did people really frequently spend removal spells on Axebane Guardians?

I don't know, but I can say that Stab Wound can absolutely shut down an Axebane Guardian deck.

how so? it would be like the equivilent of playing a Deathcult Rogue. usually once the Axebanes start falling it isn't long before the big boppers do too

It helps nullify your Defenders in the early game while seeping away your life. If your oppenent is playing a fast Rakdos deck, it gives them an opening to hit you very hard early on before you can start getting your big guys out. By the time you've ramped, you are already dead.

well Axebane doesnt really block much anyway, and I'd argue that a very fast Rakdos deck is going to do well vs. anybody with a Stab Wound. my problem with it is that it's kind of self-defeating to put it on a wall unless you're just trying to bleed them out. if you're attacking they'll just block with the Axebane and maybe "net" a life point or two they wouldn't have if you just played Auger Spree on it.

the problem is that if you start chumping with your defenders you are basically giving up your ramp engine

In other words, Stab Wound isn't an auto-win, but it can be abused in various ways to put the Axebane Guardian deck into some very awkward situations.

which is ultimately why the Rakdos player would rather spend a Auger Spree or Annihilating Fire on it ...why give them the option. Stab Wound is great at clearing out low-level stuff (say, something that would block a Chainwalker) or giving you late game reach when your offense sputters. it's a really great card of course. ironically it's probably best vs. Rakdos since they can't chump and are likely going to be left with a useless dude that's just killing them slowly.

most of the awkward situations an axebane guardian deck found itself in were self-induced

I had never read the card Ooze Flux before but oh my god is that thing broken in Simic. This dude had out two Crocanuras and a Ivy Denizen so he could essentially zip out a 3/3 for 1G at any time. In most Simic decks this'll be like a hyperactive Vitu-Ghazi Guildmage. I've never seen a card that's stupidly powerful in one deck and completely useless in any other.

I had one in a decent simic deck and never had a chance to use it. if you have two crocanuras and an ivy lane (does anyone else always accidentally say 'ivy league denizen') you are prob in a decent place already. I mean its def a card that can take over games but it still requires the right situation.

Even with only a Raptor or Krasis, it's better than a Jade Mage. That said, I haven't seen the card in action yet, so it's probably harder to set up that situation than it looks.

if you draw it late game in a stall, great, but early game you're down 4+2 mana before you get a 1/1 out of your evolved raptor. you're not happy if it's in your starting 7 vs gruul or boros.

there's so much syngergy in pretty much any decent Simic deck that you shouldn't have to work too hard to abuse it. that said it does require some set up and it does just boil down to making a bunch of ground dudes in the late game; but it can also be a lot faster/more ambushy than the guildmage, which was a slam dunk first pick as it was.

I mean I fully accept that it's not an ideal card for every situation (like, it's not Pack Rat) but when the board is stable and you're ready to zip on it's cuckoo

the guildmage is also not amazing ime

I would obv play both these cards in any simic deck but they're super dependent on the rest of your deck. an otherwise mediocre simic deck doesn't get substantially better w/ the ooze and guildmage.

i mean the vitu-ghazi guildmage. Simic's guildmage is really cool late game but also kind of a mana sink. Ooze Flux I do think really can improve a bad simic deck. It's nearly impossible to draft a deck that won't have synergy with it. Unless you somehow end up with like, 4 or less evolve dudes.

it's possible to draft a deck that doesn't have time to take advantage of its synergy

I mean in the handful of games I had it, I was either winning fast enough that I always wanted to use the turn for a creature or losing fast enough that I didn't have the option to spend so much time/mana making a 1/1

heh. looks like those pesky chinese hackers got to MTGO too. none are safe!

(that was supposed to be comical speculation. the server had a big fizzle out is all)

im happy cuz my draft was going p badly

Feel very underprepared for this GP I'm going to today, and we're getting there late enough that we won't have time to play in the last-chance grinders for practice either. Sometime between now and tomorrow, I need to at least memorize all the dang Bloodrush tricks.

lately I've been forcing Dimir every draft and getting a lot of 3-0's because it's stupidly underdrafted right now. hope that helps

what are the highest picks iyo?

dinrova horror, grisly spectacle, basilica screecher, death's approach, killing glare, undercity informer, wight of precinct six, dimir charm, bane alley broker. also balustrade spy and call of the nightwing to a lesser extent.

grisly spectacle and basilica screecher are probably your highest non-rare picks because they're the only ones that the orzhov decks also take high. everything that's specific to dimir goes surprisingly late. you can get as many death's approaches as you want practically (and they get better in multiples). a lot of the key roleplayers for the archetype like sage's row denizen or shadow slice will frequently wheel.

oh i forgot devour flesh but that's pretty high too of course. there's like a feedback loop with death's approach where the more removal you get, the more removal you get.

yeah I agree with all that. I don't like Shadow Slice much and really love Call of the Nightwing. Thats a card I seem to get every draft and draw frequently. You also definitely want Devour Flesh. It's a card that combos well with other removal and I think Dimir has a strength in that it can deal with other creatures in so many ways. Also don't forget the 2/2 that can't be blocked except by Rogues. by the way there ARE some Rogues in this set so dont just assume he's unblockable. I blocked one with a Bane Alley Broker and I think it blew the dude's mind. then again I've attacked into some 2/3 Rogue too and also had my mind blown so basically - pay attention.

Haha assuming I make day 2 (I have done this but once in my life), I'll force Dimir for you guys.

i wouldn't ever force dimir though - the gold cards in this format are mostly very good and act as strong signals, so it's important to be willing to just slip into whatever's coming your way, if you see a drakewing krasis or a skarrg guildmage or something like that 5th or 6th pick.

the fact that this open guild has happened to be dimir in almost all my drafts so far does not change the concept

I think in almost every draft I've done, either Dimir or Simic has been ridiculously open. Boros seems to get eaten up quickly, the good Gruul stuff gets splashed around a lot, and I think a lot of people try to build the Extort deck because it's really quite easy to play and win with. So lately I've gone in with the intention of playing one of those two and it's worked out so far. I'm guessing things will "normalize" somewhat in the next few weeks.