http://nymag.com/guides/money/2007/catastrophist071105_560.jpg http://nymag.com/guides/money/2007/catastrophist071105_2_560.jpg
^^^ lol
most of that guy's scenario is not really news to regular bigpicture/CR readers I don't think. But #5, the "we don't pay attention" thing, yeah, well, evidently the awareness campaign is underway, but hell if the big players are paying attention.
He also leaves out the approaching demographic catastrophe as millions of inexperienced thirtysomethings and even some late-twenties kids are forced to move into arguably tougher jobs that the boomers have been holding for two decades. Beyond the social security and healthcare costs associated with mass retirement, I don't really know if this generation has the work ethic and definitely not the rolodex to just start filling in and not fuck up royally. too busy updating their linkedin pages.
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 15:11 (sixteen years ago) link
can someone explain what "being upside down on your mortgage" means, in plain English?
― Tracer Hand, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 16:14 (sixteen years ago) link
essentially, owing more than your home is worth.
― Dandy Don Weiner, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:10 (sixteen years ago) link
also Tombot I'm not going to blame this generation as much as I blame their parents.
― Dandy Don Weiner, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:11 (sixteen years ago) link
isn't that the way people buy homes? by paying for the privilege of a loan?
― Tracer Hand, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:12 (sixteen years ago) link
When you enter into a contract with a bank for a mortgage, both you and the bank assume that the property value will not plummet. The bank doesn't want you to default any more than you want to default. But if for whatever reason you need to sell your home, and you can't get what you owe on it, then you will owe the difference to the bank. And the bank knows that when that happens, you probably will not have enough assets to cover the difference.
Predatory-type loans (which seems like a nebulous description to me) typically compound the problem because they have higher transaction rates (points, etc.)
― Dandy Don Weiner, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:17 (sixteen years ago) link
oh certainly! well played baby boom letting healthcare slide for the 20 years you've owned the electorate
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:18 (sixteen years ago) link
yeah Tracer it's also called "negative equity"
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:19 (sixteen years ago) link
Not to mention saddling us with ridiculous expectations. Why do I have to be the one to tell my PARENTS "No, I can't make a living doing whatever I want."
― Hurting 2, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:20 (sixteen years ago) link
I know several people who live in homes that cost more than $500K that signed unbelievably stupid loans.
― Dandy Don Weiner, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:27 (sixteen years ago) link
Today the news is telling me the economy is going great - no need to worry. about anything. I'm glad all this mess is finally, somehow, over.
― burt_stanton, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:28 (sixteen years ago) link
I love how the financial press keeps reporting that the subprime crisis is *not turning out to be as bad as we thought* when it hasn't even come near its peak. No one could have predicted the levees wouldn't hold, etc.
― Hurting 2, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 17:36 (sixteen years ago) link
No one could have predicted that Bin Laden was determined to strike inside the United States!
― Tracer Hand, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 18:04 (sixteen years ago) link
No one could have predicted that he would use planes as missiles!
Dear US economy,
I love you. Send money. Thanks loads. Ta!
― Aimless, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 18:07 (sixteen years ago) link
Yeah, that's something, among numerous other socio-political phenomena that baffles me. Does that mean that all that "hippies done sold out and became heartless, vacuous yuppies" stuff is true?
― dell, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 22:03 (sixteen years ago) link
sure, whatever that means.
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 22:05 (sixteen years ago) link
side note: the word "yuppie" did once have a specific meaning. I'm a little tired of it just signifying everyone upper-middle class and below retirement age.
― Hurting 2, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 22:06 (sixteen years ago) link
how funny will it be when affluent boomers need their money to pay for their own lifestyle instead of being able to just throw it away on their kids' rent and shit?
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 22:08 (sixteen years ago) link
It once meant a specific kind of douchebag, now the term encompasses too many douchebag subcategories.
xp
― Abbott, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 22:10 (sixteen years ago) link
I agree, Hurting, Abbott...I think that "yuppie" is about as useful a word as "hipster" (or arguably, "hippie"). But, I'm thinking of all the press about baby boomers -> "yuppies" that was the subject of Time and Newsweek, etc., cover stories when I was growing up in the eighties.
― dell, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 22:11 (sixteen years ago) link
Not all that funny, if it also means my already-rent-paying ass has to start supporting my parents, which is already a situation I have a small reason to worry about (xpost)
― Hurting 2, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 22:14 (sixteen years ago) link
Yeah but overall pretty funny, right?
― El Tomboto, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 22:14 (sixteen years ago) link
even that's pretty funny - the last 50 years of not giving a shit about our elders are something of an aberration, no?
― milo z, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 22:16 (sixteen years ago) link
also funny because my brother is way more successful than me and any duties are going to fall on him. haha
gotta get back to my law school applications...
― Hurting 2, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 22:17 (sixteen years ago) link
This is where repeated viewings of the movie "Disorderlies" becomes inspiration for a lucrative career path, I guess...
So, are there any nurses or people going to nursing school or working towards related professions in this bitch?
― dell, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 22:17 (sixteen years ago) link
Dollar is now at a 26-year low against the pound after that rate cut. $2.08!
― stet, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 22:43 (sixteen years ago) link
i'll never save up enough money to move back to the uk at that rate.
― Gukbe, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 22:56 (sixteen years ago) link
Hurting, when the financial press say that sub-prime is not turning out as bad as expected, what they're really talking saying is: it's not turning out as bad as expected for the big financial institutions. No doubt, a lot more *individuals* are going to start defaulting when they come off teaser rates, but the investment banks have already marked to market the securities backed by them so, in theory, they have no exposure left to them.
― aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 23:43 (sixteen years ago) link
The judge said the church's financial statements, sealed earlier, could be released to the plaintiffs.
Ooooooooh! I want to see these.
Who the hell lawyers for PhelpsCo.?
― Abbott, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 23:57 (sixteen years ago) link
The weak dollar is also driving up the cost of oil since the leading petroleum nations trade oil in US currency and buy most of their durable goods in Euros.
― earlnash, Thursday, 1 November 2007 01:09 (sixteen years ago) link
god hates the us economy xp
― tremendoid, Thursday, 1 November 2007 01:25 (sixteen years ago) link
-- stet, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 22:43 (Yesterday) Link
i have so many unwatched US dvds from the last few months, but they're giving them away.
― That one guy that hit it and quit it, Thursday, 1 November 2007 09:34 (sixteen years ago) link
when the financial press say that sub-prime is not turning out as bad as expected, what they're really talking saying is: it's not turning out as bad as expected for the big financial institutions. No doubt, a lot more *individuals* are going to start defaulting when they come off teaser rates, but the investment banks have already marked to market the securities backed by them so, in theory, they have no exposure left to them.
I've heard this explanation before, but I'm still not sure it makes sense to me -- how can the holders of those securities know exactly how bad the fallout is going to be when more of the mortgages reset? Like do they know exactly how many people are going to default? What if it's a lot more than expected because other economic conditions are worse than expected?
― Hurting 2, Thursday, 1 November 2007 14:34 (sixteen years ago) link
The markets sure weren't expecting the UBS writedown this morning. I think it is unravelling worse than expected.
― Ed, Thursday, 1 November 2007 14:35 (sixteen years ago) link
I added the google DJI chart to the top so we can watch shit meet fan
― El Tomboto, Thursday, 1 November 2007 14:41 (sixteen years ago) link
today looks like it's going to be pretty exciting
I'VE BEEN WAITED SO LONG TIME.. THE BEGINNING IS JUST NOW
― El Tomboto, Thursday, 1 November 2007 14:46 (sixteen years ago) link
Get real fat and become a rapper?
― joygoat, Thursday, 1 November 2007 14:47 (sixteen years ago) link
A point that I've seen made on some of these goldbug blogs but which still seems pretty OTM is that the stock market actually HAS been falling for the last several years, basically since the summer of 2000, if you measured US stock prices in, say, pounds sterling, or Euros, or gold. The decline of the dollar as meant that even if your stock stays steady, its "actual" (?) value has decreased.
― Tracer Hand, Thursday, 1 November 2007 14:48 (sixteen years ago) link
It 'as meant, gun'nor, wot wot
i.e. http://www.financialsense.com/Market/allison/2007/0430.html
― Tracer Hand, Thursday, 1 November 2007 14:50 (sixteen years ago) link
i know several people who have switched to nursing/public health/related fields within the past two years or so.
― lauren, Thursday, 1 November 2007 14:59 (sixteen years ago) link
oil = $96/barrel dollar = £2.08
has the dollar really fallen eight cents in the past, what, three weeks??
― Tracer Hand, Thursday, 1 November 2007 15:51 (sixteen years ago) link
No, not quite 3 weeks
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/img/77+X_SGBPUSD+bbc-big_thick-line+one_month.png
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/11/12/img/77+X_SGBPUSD+bbc-big_thick-line+three_month.png
Also semantic pedantry, the dolalr can't fall by cents it has to fall by pence. the pounds has gone up by 8 cents.
― Ed, Thursday, 1 November 2007 16:06 (sixteen years ago) link
Unless a dollar really is worth 92 cents.
― Ed, Thursday, 1 November 2007 16:07 (sixteen years ago) link
The dollar is even falling against the penny. We're doomed.
― Hurting 2, Thursday, 1 November 2007 16:09 (sixteen years ago) link
The purchasing power of little kids and grandmas has increased dramatically though.
― Hurting 2, Thursday, 1 November 2007 16:10 (sixteen years ago) link
Like do they know exactly how many people are going to default?
simply put, it's an educated guess that is mostly based on historical data and complex mathematical formulas.
― Dandy Don Weiner, Thursday, 1 November 2007 16:11 (sixteen years ago) link
owning a house, owning real estate - that is a fucking extravagance.― ꙮ (map), Saturday, 6 January 2024 12:47 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglinkAn extravagance? It's out of reach for too many people, but it's hardly an extravagance. Owning a home should be within the reach of most of us. I realize that it isn't, but it should be.― immodesty blaise (jimbeaux), Saturday, 6 January 2024 12:58 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink
― ꙮ (map), Saturday, 6 January 2024 12:47 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink
An extravagance? It's out of reach for too many people, but it's hardly an extravagance. Owning a home should be within the reach of most of us. I realize that it isn't, but it should be.
― immodesty blaise (jimbeaux), Saturday, 6 January 2024 12:58 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink
whether or not you think owning homes is an extravagance or not, housing markets with lower shares of owners (for example in many parts of europe where long term rentals are more common, or in singapore where every residence is technically public housing on a 99-year lease from the government) tend to function much better. when housing is primarily based on home ownership, increasing affordability means decreasing property values of home owners, which puts the two goals in opposition. only one generation can both buy cheap homes and have them be a source of wealth
― flopson, Saturday, 6 January 2024 19:46 (two months ago) link
I guess it depends on what you mean by "function." It's a truism that renters build up no equity.
― immodesty blaise (jimbeaux), Saturday, 6 January 2024 19:48 (two months ago) link
that’s good though. making money off home equity means house prices are going up, which means housing is becoming less affordable. there are other sources of equity, but there’s only one housing market
― flopson, Saturday, 6 January 2024 19:56 (two months ago) link
If the assumption is that if the US had more renters, rental laws would be stronger, I think that's a pretty bad assumption to make.
― longtime caller, first time listener (man alive), Saturday, 6 January 2024 21:29 (two months ago) link
They'd definitely be stronger, for landlords.
― immodesty blaise (jimbeaux), Saturday, 6 January 2024 21:30 (two months ago) link
real chicken and egg situation and it assumes the organization of renters in absence of regulation can happen. you have to be a real piece of shit as a landlord, usually in areas other than that, to face repercussions
― ɥɯ ︵ (°□°) (mh), Saturday, 6 January 2024 22:01 (two months ago) link
agreed. it’s also gross how people with money will latch on to the thing they perceive as an extravagance that someone scraping by owns, when that’s probably someone’s prized possession that they actually value and maintain because they understand that windfall may not come again― ɥɯ ︵ (°□°) (mh), Saturday, January 6, 2024 12:44 PM (four hours ago) bookmarkflaglink
― ɥɯ ︵ (°□°) (mh), Saturday, January 6, 2024 12:44 PM (four hours ago) bookmarkflaglink
Related pet peeve: people who apparently think that every mobile phone is a iPhone and every personal computer is a Mac. 1) These items are not always as big an extravagance as these critics assume, and 2) try functioning in the world as we know it without reliable online access (especially getting and keeping a job).
― Infanta Terrible (j.lu), Saturday, 6 January 2024 22:34 (two months ago) link
just batshit crazy. it’s nearly impossible to do anything without access to a computer of some sort and for the vast majority of the population, that’s a phoneone of the things support groups use to help the unhoused is to help them charge their phones. what are they going to do, sell their phone for exactly zero dollars and then be even worse off?
― ɥɯ ︵ (°□°) (mh), Saturday, 6 January 2024 23:45 (two months ago) link