yeah that's pretty otm
― sing, all ye shitizens of slumerica (k3vin k.), Tuesday, 10 September 2013 05:26 (ten years ago) link
trout's AIR* this year is 93, cabrera's is 102
*from b-r, measures league and park effects players have encountered over the course of the season, normalized to 100. below 100 is unfavorable for hitters, above is favorable
― sing, all ye shitizens of slumerica (k3vin k.), Tuesday, 10 September 2013 05:30 (ten years ago) link
though i should mention that both wRC+ (which i think is the best offensive stat there is) and OPS+ both adjust for park factors and have cabrera ahead by a modest but clear amount. oWAR does too but also incorporates base running
― sing, all ye shitizens of slumerica (k3vin k.), Tuesday, 10 September 2013 05:36 (ten years ago) link
"does too" meaning also adjusts for park/league effects
― sing, all ye shitizens of slumerica (k3vin k.), Tuesday, 10 September 2013 05:37 (ten years ago) link
posnanski is completely right about reaching on error
I think only if Trout is somehow more LIKELY to reach base on error (and that the numbers are not just a fluke).
― timellison, Tuesday, 10 September 2013 07:00 (ten years ago) link
I agree, I'd want some kind of study first before making any changes. But common sense suggests that the batter does have an impact on errors made by infielders. Nobody's rushing throws if Cabrera or Fielder is running to first; if it's Trout or Ellsbury or whoever, I would think you'd get more infield errors over a large sample of games. My guess would be that outfield errors are more randomly distributed.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 10 September 2013 12:26 (ten years ago) link
Posnanski's blog has a lot of posts about this. It's more interesting this year but I would still take Trout in a landslide
― frogbs, Tuesday, 10 September 2013 12:45 (ten years ago) link
Definitely not as common as typical rushed-throw Es, but infielders also screw up when they have a lot of time to make a play -- end up taking an extra step, which can alter the grip and/or release point, etc.
Do stringers note error TYPES?
― Andy K, Tuesday, 10 September 2013 13:35 (ten years ago) link
If you put any stock in WAR, Trout had one of the 20 greatest offensive seasons ever last year, and is better this year.
wtf I woulda thought all iterations of WAR adjusted for parks.
― Miss Arlington twirls for the Coal Heavers (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 10 September 2013 14:28 (ten years ago) link
both do, iirc? (not sure about WARP)
― sing, all ye shitizens of slumerica (k3vin k.), Tuesday, 10 September 2013 14:50 (ten years ago) link
if the Angels decided to lock up Trout RIGHT NOW, what would be a fair deal?
― frogbs, Tuesday, 10 September 2013 14:54 (ten years ago) link
$300 M / 10 years
not my scratch tho
― Miss Arlington twirls for the Coal Heavers (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 10 September 2013 15:01 (ten years ago) link
an incentive-laced contract that gives tens of millions in bonuses based on winning MVP awards
― Z S, Tuesday, 10 September 2013 17:10 (ten years ago) link
try HARDER mike, try HARDER
I think Trout's contract should be 100% based on whether or not he can compile a higher WAR than Miguel Cabrera each year. Baseball's first billionaire!
― clemenza, Tuesday, 10 September 2013 17:27 (ten years ago) link
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/9/11/4720170/visualizing-the-al-mvp-race
this is cool
― sing, all ye shitizens of slumerica (k3vin k.), Thursday, 12 September 2013 21:52 (ten years ago) link
Cliff Corcoran, who does a regular awards round-up on cnnsi.com, has had Cabrera in front most of the way. He's now wavering: "I'm going to give Cabrera one more week before I take him out of the top spot."
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20130912/awards-watch-lightning-round-2/?sct=mlb_t11_a0
― clemenza, Thursday, 12 September 2013 23:26 (ten years ago) link
From all the article I'm reading it seems that most of the money is on Trout right now. But that was kinda of the case last year too.
(Perhaps we should have a three way AL Cy Young thread too!)
― Van Horn Street, Friday, 13 September 2013 05:14 (ten years ago) link
the money? BBRAA is giving it to Miggy.
― Miss Arlington twirls for the Coal Heavers (Dr Morbius), Friday, 13 September 2013 11:25 (ten years ago) link
I couldn't vote for someone who's as short on mobility as Cabrera has been this year. He'll hit a missile off the fence and round first as a formality.
Incredible that he's been able to hit so well, but MVP over Trout? Hell no.
― Andy K, Friday, 13 September 2013 14:15 (ten years ago) link
It seems every article I've read is saying Trout deserves it but Miggy will have it.
― Van Horn Street, Saturday, 14 September 2013 03:39 (ten years ago) link
One of the arguments for Cabrera last year might not hold this year....play down the stretch.
Also, the Tigers great record (10-3) without him in the line-up might be a small-sampled, simpler WAR used against him by those who don't fully buy into the sabermetric.
― peepee, Saturday, 14 September 2013 14:13 (ten years ago) link
The usual disclaimer: trying to anticipate the voting, not expressing personal opinion here.
Chris Davis has come down quite a bit from his numbers at the break, but:
--Trout and Cabrera aren't going to affect the mad scramble over the final two-three weeks (probably true of Donaldson at this point too, not that he's actually in the running, even though he should be);--hitting your 50th home run to put your team ahead in an important game gets noticed;--has a chance to have more games like last night in the remaining weeks (Cano, too, has this opening);--he'll lead the league in HR, and may end up leading in slugging, runs, RBI, and total bases
Okay--I don't think he actually has much of a chance. But if he finishes great, Trout stays strong (except for walks, he's been in a bit of a mini-slump himself the past week), and Cabrera continues to struggle, I could see Davis helping Trout. He would never take away a Trout vote, but I could see where a few Cabrera voters might switch over to Davis.
(I realize that Davis has a teammate even with him in WAR. But Machado, like Donaldson, just won't be a big factor in the voting, right?)
― clemenza, Saturday, 14 September 2013 17:20 (ten years ago) link
"Aren't going to affect the mad scramble"--I just meant, is your team out of it/pretty much safe, or do these last 15 games matter? On second thought, I guess I'm jumping the gun by assuming Oakland's safe at this point.
― clemenza, Saturday, 14 September 2013 17:28 (ten years ago) link
wow - i didn't even realize how well Donaldson was doing until just now.
― Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 15 September 2013 00:06 (ten years ago) link
Very well rounded season: hovering close to .300/.400/.500, good defense, doing it all at third base. Also, if you care about such things:
RISP (150+ PA): .355/.459/.508Runners on (250+ PA): .366/.457/.573High Leverage (100+ PA): .394/.443/.646
He's also having a fantastic September so far, coinciding with the A's pulling away.
― clemenza, Sunday, 15 September 2013 00:28 (ten years ago) link
i remember him getting off to a really hot start, but i never took him seriously for some reason (i probably wasn't too impressed with what he'd done in the minors).
― Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 15 September 2013 07:48 (ten years ago) link
Cliff Corcoran has moved Trout to the top. I always figure most SI writers sit about halfway between old and new, so that may be a signal that a more general shift towards Trout is underway:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20130919/awards-watch-mike-trout-miguel-cabrera/?sct=mlb_t1t_a3
― clemenza, Friday, 20 September 2013 00:30 (ten years ago) link
Cliff Corcoran used to write for Baseball Prospectus. He was never old-school.
― Miss Arlington twirls for the Coal Heavers (Dr Morbius), Friday, 20 September 2013 01:33 (ten years ago) link
Yeah--halfway's not accurate for Corcoran, obviously not for Jaffe either. More like halfway as a group. But Corcoran does still...there are different ways you could say what I think the difference between him and Brian Kenny is, and if I don't say it in exactly the right way, I'll get grief.
― clemenza, Friday, 20 September 2013 03:04 (ten years ago) link
jon heyman kind of skews the mean toward "down the middle" by himself
― druhilla (k3vin k.), Friday, 20 September 2013 03:06 (ten years ago) link
say what you wanted to say though, clem -- i might agree
― druhilla (k3vin k.), Friday, 20 September 2013 20:57 (ten years ago) link
SweetSpot's best-MVP-arguments for each guy:
CanoDonaldsonDavisTroutCabrera
― clemenza, Thursday, 26 September 2013 03:50 (ten years ago) link
Brian Kenny is in showbiz. It comes across, and I don't even have cable.
― Miss Arlington twirls for the Coal Heavers (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 26 September 2013 11:36 (ten years ago) link
Final WAR (Baseball Reference):
Trout -- 9.2Donaldson -- 8.0Cano -- 7.6Cabrera -- 7.2Iwakuma -- 7.0
I don't know. Because of Cabrera's invisible September, I hardly see him as a sure thing anymore.
― clemenza, Monday, 30 September 2013 14:57 (ten years ago) link
can't wait for the cabrera voters to explain how it doesn't matter because games in june mean just as much
― druhilla (k3vin k.), Monday, 30 September 2013 14:59 (ten years ago) link
You see, I would never say that. Even though he was playing hurt, Cabrera's September really gives me pause. (By the way, you could turn that around--I bet WAR-inclined voters who always argue that a game in April is just as important as a game in September, I bet some of them suddenly start paying attention to September.)
― clemenza, Monday, 30 September 2013 15:02 (ten years ago) link
Everyone always uses the arguments that suit their purpose at any given time.
oh i totally agree
― druhilla (k3vin k.), Monday, 30 September 2013 15:50 (ten years ago) link
I wonder if the Cabrera voters noticed that the Tigers almost blew the division in historic fashion while he was pulling his September disappearing act, although I suppose that could be turned around in his favour too ("he's the heart and soul of the team, look how much they need him to come through"!)
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, 30 September 2013 16:59 (ten years ago) link
Wait, does that mean Iwakuma led the AL's pitchers in WAR?
― Van Horn Street, Monday, 30 September 2013 20:58 (ten years ago) link
in bWAR, yes. he's 11th in fWAR loool
i think this year is trout's best chance to win with cabrera around.
― ^^ post obviously honoring and supporting Qualcomm (zachlyon), Monday, 30 September 2013 22:45 (ten years ago) link
I'd probably reverse that: this might be Cabrera's last chance to win with Trout around.
― clemenza, Monday, 30 September 2013 23:02 (ten years ago) link
yeah i agree with that, if trout keeps playing this well and cabrera wins again, if anything voter fatigue will help trout down the line
― druhilla (k3vin k.), Tuesday, 1 October 2013 00:50 (ten years ago) link
Cliff Corcoran's final picks: Trout and Kershaw.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20130926/awards-watch-lightning-round-mike-trout-miguel-cabrera/?sct=mlb_wr_a1
The way he handles Trout-Cabrera is interesting: their five strong months squared off, and then their down month (April for Trout, September for Cabrera).
Surprised by the Kershaw pick.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 1 October 2013 21:11 (ten years ago) link
trout was pretty awful these last couple weeks too
― k3vin k., Tuesday, 1 October 2013 21:12 (ten years ago) link
garbage time
― Miss Arlington twirls for the Coal Heavers (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 1 October 2013 21:15 (ten years ago) link
The thing with Trout was, even during those two September weeks where he wasn't hitting, he was walking like crazy and still scoring runs. So his slump was masked to a degree. With Cabrera, going a full month with two extra-base hits is a little more noticeable. (Cabrera was still drawing walks, too, though not at the rate Trout was.)
― clemenza, Tuesday, 1 October 2013 21:26 (ten years ago) link
yeah definitely true
― k3vin k., Tuesday, 1 October 2013 21:28 (ten years ago) link
Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.
― System, Wednesday, 2 October 2013 00:01 (ten years ago) link
They're close--it's a defensible vote. I'm not clear why Iwakuma ends up ahead in WAR--Scherzer has the better ERA+ (which is park-adjusted, right?), the better WHIP, and the better strikeout and home run rates, while K/BB is basically a wash--but I do prefer Baseball Reference, which is based more on what actually happened than what theoretically should have happened. I'd be reluctant to give things like FIP and BaBIP much weight in awards voting--in planning for next year, I'd pay lots of attention to them, but not for awards.
I noticed something odd in two or three Cy Young columns I read. Pitcher wins have become so anathema to some writers that, far from giving Scherzer undue credit for his W-L record (which indeed was exaggerated somewhat by his run support), they almost hold it against him. The desire to see through his W-L record was so strong that there seemed to be a vague sense of disappointment to find lots of other stats behind the record that indicated he was the best pitcher in the league.
― clemenza, Thursday, 14 November 2013 12:32 (ten years ago) link
yeah, i prefer results to what Fangraphs does.
Neyer made the counterargument yesterday. Really, I don't know.
― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Thursday, 14 November 2013 12:56 (ten years ago) link
Neyer's was one of the columns I had in mind--it felt like he was trying to find someone other than Scherzer to vote for (and said he would have voted for Sanchez if he'd pitched more innings), but he wasn't as pronounced as a couple of others I read. I should have made note of them, but I didn't. In the end, Neyer does come to the conclusion that Scherzer should be #1. It's basically a coin flip, I think, slight edge to Scherzer.
― clemenza, Thursday, 14 November 2013 13:24 (ten years ago) link
A couple of things about Kershaw: now 12th in career Cy Young share, can move into the Top 10 with a good showing next year; the fourth pitcher ever with a 1st-2nd-1st run.
― clemenza, Thursday, 14 November 2013 13:31 (ten years ago) link
donaldson got a lot more support than i'd thought
― my whole family is catholic so look at the pickle i'm in (zachlyon), Friday, 15 November 2013 00:38 (ten years ago) link
also lol @ rick hummel of the stl post-dispatch voting for yadi and carpenter before mccutchen
― my whole family is catholic so look at the pickle i'm in (zachlyon), Friday, 15 November 2013 00:39 (ten years ago) link
always a few who look like they had no idea their votes would be public
― my whole family is catholic so look at the pickle i'm in (zachlyon), Friday, 15 November 2013 00:40 (ten years ago) link
http://bbwaa.com/13-al-mvp/
trout got a 7th place vote
― twist boat veterans for stability (k3vin k.), Friday, 15 November 2013 05:18 (ten years ago) link
classic stark, smh
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9967744/celebrating-mvp-winners-miguel-cabrera-andrew-mccutchen
― twist boat veterans for stability (k3vin k.), Friday, 15 November 2013 05:21 (ten years ago) link
Why anyone on earth should care about career Cy share, i dunno.
Awards suck.
― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Friday, 15 November 2013 12:18 (ten years ago) link
"Care"? You have this really weird habit of confusing "find interesting" with "care." I don't see how Cy Young share is any more or less interesting than the stuff you post about (and therefore presumably "care" about). We have awards threads, people post, people are interested in awards, it logically follows that a cumulative measure of an award would be of interest.
Top 12 right now: Clemens, Johnson, Maddux, Carlton, Pedro, Seaver, Palmer, Halladay, Glavine, Koufax, Kershaw. Quite a bogus group of pitchers.
― clemenza, Friday, 15 November 2013 13:00 (ten years ago) link
(Missed Santana at #11.)
― clemenza, Friday, 15 November 2013 13:14 (ten years ago) link
across 50+ years, the BBRAA most liked the dozen pitchers who were close to the best in peak value. Interesting!
― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Friday, 15 November 2013 14:43 (ten years ago) link
this now has me wanting to sit down and actually rank these guys careers. i'd probably toss Ryan, Gibson and another Johnson in there too.
― Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 15 November 2013 17:18 (ten years ago) link
Gibson'very close to the top 12 in Cy Young share.
(xpost) Fine. Here's what kills me, though, Morbius. You're constantly arbitrating what is and isn't interesting, what is and isn't pertinent to a thread, what is and isn't an acceptable level of engagement, etc., etc. If I come on a baseball thread and plead ignorance about something because I haven't been paying attention, you feel it's important to jump on and call me on that. But it's apparently okay for you to go on a pop-music thread and plead ignorance about something because you no longer pay attention--that's acceptable.
It's just really tiresome.
― clemenza, Friday, 15 November 2013 17:26 (ten years ago) link
"Gibson's"
sorry. i don't claim to be a music fan.
― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Friday, 15 November 2013 17:36 (ten years ago) link
you guys should just move in together already
― twist boat veterans for stability (k3vin k.), Friday, 15 November 2013 17:37 (ten years ago) link
I've never accused you of not paying attention to awards points, clem
― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Friday, 15 November 2013 17:46 (ten years ago) link
Never heard of Kolten Wong before
yes, we know you are as familiar with the NL as you are foreign films. He's one of their best prospects after Oscar Taveras.
― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Monday, October 28, 2013 7:21 AM (2 weeks ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
what it means is move to Boston, clem, you can probly watch the meaningful part of the game then
― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, October 30, 2013 10:31 PM (2 weeks ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
There are other ways, like actually reading about him during the season --- would work even more for Matt Carpenter, you can even see video and stuff.
― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Monday, October 28, 2013 10:07 AM (2 weeks ago)
Things like that. One might just as easily say there are other ways to keep up with pop music--you can see video and stuff, buy CDs, etc. Or you can choose not to, because you're no longer as interested as you once were--I can figure that out, and would never feel the need to tell you how to keep up when you plead ignorance.
― clemenza, Friday, 15 November 2013 19:18 (ten years ago) link
Anyway, I'm harping. But: it's been well established that I'm interested in awards, the HOF, benchmarks (including old-fashioned ones), Triple Crowns, no-hitters, all the stupid things you've outgrown. You don't need to call attention to this anymore.
― clemenza, Friday, 15 November 2013 19:30 (ten years ago) link
hey. lets not lose lose sight of the most important piece of hardware: the Rolaids Relief Man Award.
― Porto for Pyros (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 15 November 2013 19:40 (ten years ago) link
Didn't even realize it was still around. And evolving, sort of: "...four points for a tough save (entering the game with the tying run on base), three points for a save, two points for a win, loss of two points for a loss, and a loss of two points for a blown save." Inaugural AL winner, Bill Campbell, was 17-5; of the first two NL winners, one was a Rawley, the other a Rollie.
― clemenza, Saturday, 16 November 2013 16:09 (ten years ago) link
So who were the best relievers this year by smartstats?
― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Saturday, 16 November 2013 16:14 (ten years ago) link
I would assume Kimbrel and Koji for anything strictly rate-based. Here's Fangraphs' WAR leaders for relief pitchers:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d
Can't find a Baseball Reference list exclusively for relief pitchers.
― clemenza, Saturday, 16 November 2013 16:35 (ten years ago) link
I used to do this too: who helped their cause, who hurt theirs, and who treaded water?
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/42364/five-guys-who-enhanced-hall-case-in-2013
Can't argue with any of those five picks. For who hurt theirs, Sabathia and--unless you think he was already a lock, which may be true--Halladay. Treading water, probably a number of people. Verlander would be one.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 19 November 2013 04:17 (ten years ago) link
Verlander had a 5.2 fWAR and a 4.6 bWAR this year -- a great year for just about any other pitcher. So he helped his cause, assuming he gets back to being VERLANDER! for a few more years.
― NoTimeBeforeTime, Tuesday, 19 November 2013 06:30 (ten years ago) link
Treading water only in the context of himself, yes.
2005-12: 16-8, 3.40, 1.173 WHIP, 4.5 WAR2013: 13-12, 3.46, 1.315 WHIP, 4.6 WAR
In ERA and WAR, almost identical. (I included his cup of coffee in 2005 because...that makes the numbers work even better!) I think he could probably even go in doing what he did last year for another 7-8 seasons--he's already got the highlights of a HOF career (all three major awards, the no-hitters), he just needs to fill out the bulk. In that sense, I totally agree--years like last year help someone like Verlander.
― clemenza, Tuesday, 19 November 2013 13:03 (ten years ago) link
From David Schoenfield's "Fourteen Big Questions for 2014":
While you can come up with a dozen legitimate MVP candidates in the National League, AL honors will almost surely go to Trout or Cabrera, barring a miracle Mariners run to the AL West title or something like that.
I don't agree with that at all. Surprise candidates always emerge. Even last year, whether they deserved to or not, both Chris Davis and Josh Donaldson got over 50% of the available points, and a big September (as opposed to a very poor one) might have been enough for Davis to sneak in.
Favorites, sure. "Almost surely," don't agree.
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/45422/fourteen-big-questions-for-2014
― clemenza, Monday, 31 March 2014 02:58 (ten years ago) link