2013 al mvp

i didn't notice til after the season just how well cliff lee pitched. quietstorm.

I was curious about joining the IBWAA, but didn't know how regularly you were expected to write about baseball. I post something baseball-related on my site once a year--used to be more often, now it's even less.

Well, it was a little less exclusive than I imagined. You need a credit card. Or a PayPal account. That and $20 and you're in for life. Think I'm too late to vote for this year's awards, though.

I want to see if I can get onto the Nobel committee now--willing to pay up to $25.

your AL RoY

http://l2.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/1EHnFIC5VFhgxMwZF37uOw--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7cT04NTt3PTYzMA--/http://media.zenfs.com/en/blogs/sptusmlbexperts/wilmyershead.jpg

I don't think Cy Young threads were started...203-93 for Scherzer over Darvish; 29 out of 30 first-place votes for Kershaw, other one to Wainwright.

ok who voted for wainwright

i want their justification to be that he had a better xfip

Whoever it is, he's going to be asked to explain himself a lot over the next couple of weeks.

Kershaw -- ERA (over a full run lower), K, ERA+ (194-123), WHIP, H/9 (two fewer per nine), HR/9, WAR (7.8-6.2)
Wainwright -- W, W%, IP (by 5), BB/9, K/BB

Wainwright's team had a better record, and Wainwright was supported by almost a full run per game more.

Wainwright took one category I consider important, K/BB, so it maybe wasn't quite as lopsided as I initially thought. But Kershaw took all the other important ones, usually by huge margins.

anthony witrado of the sporting news doesn't vote for darvish at all, i do not like anthony witrado of the sporting news

also harvey deserved more pts

This is funny. Wainwright's first-place vote came from a Cincinnati writer. Wainwright against the Reds this year:

1-3, 7.77 ERA, 22 IP, 29 H, 7 BB, 18 K.

Apparently it was a vote of gratitude.

here's the IBA AL Cy vote:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22226

I put Iwakuma first, followed by Sale and Scherzer.

http://gs1.wac.edgecastcdn.net/8019B6/data.tumblr.com/tumblr_mcgq4hsyOj1qa7bh4o1_500.jpg

haha

Interested in your reasoning, Morbius.

ERA: Iwakuma (2.66 - 2.90)
IP: Iwakuma (219 - 214)
ERA+: Scherzer (145 - 138)
WHIP: Scherzer (0.970 - 1.006)
H/9: Scherzer (6.4 - 7.3)
HR/9: Scherzer (0.8 - 1.0)
BB/9: Iwakuma (1.7 - 2.4)
K/9: Scherzer (10.1 - 7.6)
K/BB: Iwakuma (4.40 - 4.29)
Quality Starts: Scherzer (25/32 - 23/33)
Game Score: Scherzer (62.8 - 60.5)
WAR: Iwakuma (7.0 - 6.7)

Definitely close--enough so that I went to Quality Starts and Game Score--but I don't see any strong rationale for Iwakuma.

@Max_Scherzer
In the words of T.O. #GeturPopcornReady http//:pic.twitter.com/NJ0Yv71hTc

(Weird)

http://pic.twitter.com/NJ0Yv71hTc

clemenza:

WAR

http://i820.photobucket.com/albums/zz125/sstander/StarshipTroopers-WAR.png

give war a chance

morbs you are bref > fangraphs then? the latter had iwakuma 12th in war, just behind doug fister

They're close--it's a defensible vote. I'm not clear why Iwakuma ends up ahead in WAR--Scherzer has the better ERA+ (which is park-adjusted, right?), the better WHIP, and the better strikeout and home run rates, while K/BB is basically a wash--but I do prefer Baseball Reference, which is based more on what actually happened than what theoretically should have happened. I'd be reluctant to give things like FIP and BaBIP much weight in awards voting--in planning for next year, I'd pay lots of attention to them, but not for awards.

I noticed something odd in two or three Cy Young columns I read. Pitcher wins have become so anathema to some writers that, far from giving Scherzer undue credit for his W-L record (which indeed was exaggerated somewhat by his run support), they almost hold it against him. The desire to see through his W-L record was so strong that there seemed to be a vague sense of disappointment to find lots of other stats behind the record that indicated he was the best pitcher in the league.

yeah, i prefer results to what Fangraphs does.

Neyer made the counterargument yesterday. Really, I don't know.

Neyer's was one of the columns I had in mind--it felt like he was trying to find someone other than Scherzer to vote for (and said he would have voted for Sanchez if he'd pitched more innings), but he wasn't as pronounced as a couple of others I read. I should have made note of them, but I didn't. In the end, Neyer does come to the conclusion that Scherzer should be #1. It's basically a coin flip, I think, slight edge to Scherzer.

A couple of things about Kershaw: now 12th in career Cy Young share, can move into the Top 10 with a good showing next year; the fourth pitcher ever with a 1st-2nd-1st run.

donaldson got a lot more support than i'd thought

also lol @ rick hummel of the stl post-dispatch voting for yadi and carpenter before mccutchen

always a few who look like they had no idea their votes would be public

http://bbwaa.com/13-al-mvp/

trout got a 7th place vote

classic stark, smh

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/9967744/celebrating-mvp-winners-miguel-cabrera-andrew-mccutchen

Why anyone on earth should care about career Cy share, i dunno.

Awards suck.

"Care"? You have this really weird habit of confusing "find interesting" with "care." I don't see how Cy Young share is any more or less interesting than the stuff you post about (and therefore presumably "care" about). We have awards threads, people post, people are interested in awards, it logically follows that a cumulative measure of an award would be of interest.

Top 12 right now: Clemens, Johnson, Maddux, Carlton, Pedro, Seaver, Palmer, Halladay, Glavine, Koufax, Kershaw. Quite a bogus group of pitchers.

(Missed Santana at #11.)

across 50+ years, the BBRAA most liked the dozen pitchers who were close to the best in peak value. Interesting!

Top 12 right now: Clemens, Johnson, Maddux, Carlton, Pedro, Seaver, Palmer, Halladay, Glavine, Koufax, Kershaw. Quite a bogus group of pitchers.

this now has me wanting to sit down and actually rank these guys careers. i'd probably toss Ryan, Gibson and another Johnson in there too.

Gibson'very close to the top 12 in Cy Young share.

(xpost) Fine. Here's what kills me, though, Morbius. You're constantly arbitrating what is and isn't interesting, what is and isn't pertinent to a thread, what is and isn't an acceptable level of engagement, etc., etc. If I come on a baseball thread and plead ignorance about something because I haven't been paying attention, you feel it's important to jump on and call me on that. But it's apparently okay for you to go on a pop-music thread and plead ignorance about something because you no longer pay attention--that's acceptable.

It's just really tiresome.

"Gibson's"

sorry. i don't claim to be a music fan.

you guys should just move in together already

I've never accused you of not paying attention to awards points, clem

Never heard of Kolten Wong before

yes, we know you are as familiar with the NL as you are foreign films. He's one of their best prospects after Oscar Taveras.

― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Monday, October 28, 2013 7:21 AM (2 weeks ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

what it means is move to Boston, clem, you can probly watch the meaningful part of the game then

― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, October 30, 2013 10:31 PM (2 weeks ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

There are other ways, like actually reading about him during the season --- would work even more for Matt Carpenter, you can even see video and stuff.

― eclectic husbandry (Dr Morbius), Monday, October 28, 2013 10:07 AM (2 weeks ago)

Things like that. One might just as easily say there are other ways to keep up with pop music--you can see video and stuff, buy CDs, etc. Or you can choose not to, because you're no longer as interested as you once were--I can figure that out, and would never feel the need to tell you how to keep up when you plead ignorance.

Anyway, I'm harping. But: it's been well established that I'm interested in awards, the HOF, benchmarks (including old-fashioned ones), Triple Crowns, no-hitters, all the stupid things you've outgrown. You don't need to call attention to this anymore.

hey. lets not lose lose sight of the most important piece of hardware: the Rolaids Relief Man Award.

Didn't even realize it was still around. And evolving, sort of: "...four points for a tough save (entering the game with the tying run on base), three points for a save, two points for a win, loss of two points for a loss, and a loss of two points for a blown save." Inaugural AL winner, Bill Campbell, was 17-5; of the first two NL winners, one was a Rawley, the other a Rollie.

So who were the best relievers this year by smartstats?

I would assume Kimbrel and Koji for anything strictly rate-based. Here's Fangraphs' WAR leaders for relief pitchers:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=19,d

Can't find a Baseball Reference list exclusively for relief pitchers.

I used to do this too: who helped their cause, who hurt theirs, and who treaded water?

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/42364/five-guys-who-enhanced-hall-case-in-2013

Can't argue with any of those five picks. For who hurt theirs, Sabathia and--unless you think he was already a lock, which may be true--Halladay. Treading water, probably a number of people. Verlander would be one.

Verlander had a 5.2 fWAR and a 4.6 bWAR this year -- a great year for just about any other pitcher. So he helped his cause, assuming he gets back to being VERLANDER! for a few more years.

Treading water only in the context of himself, yes.

2005-12: 16-8, 3.40, 1.173 WHIP, 4.5 WAR
2013: 13-12, 3.46, 1.315 WHIP, 4.6 WAR

In ERA and WAR, almost identical. (I included his cup of coffee in 2005 because...that makes the numbers work even better!) I think he could probably even go in doing what he did last year for another 7-8 seasons--he's already got the highlights of a HOF career (all three major awards, the no-hitters), he just needs to fill out the bulk. In that sense, I totally agree--years like last year help someone like Verlander.

From David Schoenfield's "Fourteen Big Questions for 2014":

While you can come up with a dozen legitimate MVP candidates in the National League, AL honors will almost surely go to Trout or Cabrera, barring a miracle Mariners run to the AL West title or something like that.

I don't agree with that at all. Surprise candidates always emerge. Even last year, whether they deserved to or not, both Chris Davis and Josh Donaldson got over 50% of the available points, and a big September (as opposed to a very poor one) might have been enough for Davis to sneak in.

Favorites, sure. "Almost surely," don't agree.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/45422/fourteen-big-questions-for-2014