hall of fame, next vote...

Yeah it's kind of odd because FIP seems like it should really love Rivera (good SO rate, ridiculously low # of homers, low # of walks) but fWAR is very cruel to him.

yeah idgi

If those Think Factory numbers hold, I would think Mussina would be in good position for the future with 35%. Morris is going to drop off; Bonds and Clemens just aren't going in unless there's a complete reversal on PEDs in the near future; Raines, deserving as he may be, looks destined for the Veteran's Committee. I know that more sure-things are coming onto the ballot the next five years, but I still think both he and Schilling will climb slowly until they hit just the right year.

would be excited to see four guys go in and clear up some room but... next year, johnson pedro smoltz sheffield. next year, griffey, edmonds, hoffman, eckstein. it'll never get better.

guess gary isn't a sure thing anymore tho

sheff has zero chance

yeah. everyone hated sheff, everyone thinks he juiced, numbers not insane enough for a grassroots campaign to build up

yeah absolutely. plus i think folks will look at his stats and idk, he didn't have a really consistent run of good seasons until his thirties and for his era, he's not really HOF-level impressive (only 4 of his 22 seasons were over 5 WAR, which surprised me.)

and he was really horrible defensively.

clem deadspin noted that those numbers are based on ballots made public so they skew young ie morris % possibly higher though i think you're right, that this clogged era is probably gonna keep him out.

lol at zach slipping eckstein. johnson pedro and i'm guessing smoltz go in though i could be wrong on smoltz. what a fucking scary trio of pitchers.

yeah so these are the arguably qualified HOF candidates coming up in the next three elections which will be added to a fucked-up logjam barring rules changes:

Jorge Posada
Vladimir Guerrero
Manny Ramirez
Ivan Rodriguez
Trevor Hoffman
Billy Wagner
Jim Edmonds
Ken Griffey
Carlos Delgado
Gary Sheffield
John Smoltz
Pedro Martinez
Randy Johnson

i'm guessing smoltz will straggle for a few years but stick on a lot of ballots. might be a different story if he retired a year sooner

if those numbers are close to accurate i was obv wrong to worry about moose. maybe raines will sneak in after some dust settles. but rip trammel ;_; not that he ever had a chance i guess

man for a career .280/.383/.546 hitter w/473 homers carlos delgado doesn't have a chance

press always loved smoltzy, very accessible guy, arbitrary saves + wins milestone should help him get in no problem... has 3k strikeouts too

My own sense (stepping back from personal opinion--always feel like I need to clarify that) of where each guy on al's list is headed--and why I think there'll be some wiggle room for Mussina.

Only three walk-right-in guys: Johnson, Pedro, Griffey.

Next closest is I-Rod, who'll by slowed down by a three- or four-year Bagwell/Piazza delay for suspicion.

No chance as it stands now: Manny. Less than no chance: Sheffield.

Vlad: will go in, not immediately like I always thought. There seems to be a feeling his case isn't quite strong enough WAR-wise.

Hoffman: Thought he was automatic at one point, but I think it's going to be tough for non-Rivera relievers going forward. He was much better than Lee Smith, but the thinking has changed enough that I could see him similarly always drawing 30 or 40% of the vote, maybe higher, but never getting voted in by the writers with enough other players to choose from. Cut that in half at least for Wagner.

Delgado: WAR says he wasn't as good as McGriff. I think he'll probably do better in the voting but still fall short.

Posada: Veteran's Committee probably, can't see him voted in by the writers.

Edmonds: I find him the toughest of all to predict. It'd take a while, longer than Vlad (whom he edges in career WAR), but maybe.

Smoltz: agree that the "arbitrary saves + wins milestone should help him." Within five years?

My point being, I only see three automatics, so I think there'll room opened up in the next five years for some of the leftovers from this year. It'll still be a logjam, but the names will change. If drastic changes are made to the voting, which could also happen, none of this applies.

(Some commenter on Posnanski's site pointed out that, with a 10-pick maximum, it's theoretically possible for 13 guys to be inducted in a year if the votes were distributed exactly right.)

xp this is true for a log of big hitting/light field sluggers from that era (Sosa, Sheffield, Ramirez, Guerrero, Abreu). Context and fielding matter a little. :D

Here's a spreadsheet tracking votes.

One thing that's perplexing is the handful of votes for either Bonds or Clemens but not both. So far, there are two votes for Bonds only, one for Clemens only.

Sheff has a big luggage set even beyond the 'roids issues going all the way back to when he was accused of tanking it way back in Milwaukee. About the only place he really ever seemed to actually be embraced by the fan base was in Atlanta. I get the money was better in NY, but that seemed like the one club he played for where it was 'home' at least for a while. (I don't really remember any issues with the Marlins, but he was on one of the win it all sell it all teams they had.) Everywhere else he seemed to end up pretty loathed by the fan base where he went and the 'roids are tied in with his time in the Bronx. Only thing Sheffield's got going is that there are a TON of stars in his generation of players that are loathed by large swaths of baseball fans and he was a bit more open about the whole PED thing than some of the other players around him.

That said, the guy had a heck of a power stroke for a right handed hitter. He could use the whole field and was pretty hard to jam up, as he could hit a wide array of pitches for power. Sheffield was pretty hard to strike out and could work the count for walks.

I never realized how tough it was to strike him out ... he had 300 more walks than strikeouts in his career and never struck out more than 100 times in a season (or was ever close to it, his career high was 83).

It's kind of baffling that a guy who came up as a shortstop could still be so bad in the field when he was moved to easier positions.

Wagner no way btw

that spreadsheet cracks me up, I like to look at the ballots for the guys not voting for Thomas mostly.

Most of the non-Thomas voters have Bonds and Clemens on their ballots, so that's at least the beginning of a rationale, space-wise (some of them have Morris, though, so that isn't). Worst ballot that I can see is Juan Vene's: Maddux, Glavine, Morris, Lee Smith, and no one else. A short bio:

http://sports.nyhistory.org/juan-vene/

He turns 85 in five days. That's fantastic--more power to him. He shouldn't have a ballot, though.

don't see why he shouldn't have a ballot tbh. his ballot sucks, but it seems like he's earned one

*slaps ballot out of juan vene's gnarled hands and stomps on it* go to hell you old shitty bitch!!!!

It's a tough call...and I've always fought against the idea (mostly out of self-interest) that older pop-music writers become irrelevant. It's just that that ballot shows such a level of disengagement. I guess it should be interpreted as a blanket refusal to vote for any hitters from that era. Which doesn't explain not voting for Raines, Trammell, Mattingly, or even McGriff, or why pitchers would get a pass.

Anyway, I think the best thing about this vote (based on the almost 25% that's in) is that the very worst thing that could have happened is not going to happen--that only Maddux would go in, and that the logjam had created a new onworkable bar of ridiculously over-qualified plus completely PED-untainted. Glavine's going in (put aside Mussina/Schilling comparisons for a moment), Thomas too. Piazza's going in this year or next, even with a couple of sure-things coming on. Bagwell's going in soon after. Mussina and Schilling are off to a good start.

"unworkable"

I'm not sure about your timeline considering that the ballot is going to get more and more stacked. Plenty of overqualified guys could be lingering on the ballot for 10-15 years if there isn't a voting rule change.

I think it'll go like this:

This year: Maddux, Glavine, Thomas
2015: Johnson, Pedro, Biggio or Piazza (not both--the other carries over another year)
2016: Griffey, Biggio or Piazza, Bagwell
2017: anyone above who hasn't yet made it, plus...the logjam is back: I-Rod, Vlad, Smoltz, Mussina, Schilling--one or two of them

btw i agree on wagner, morbs, but i guess the argument could be made for him.

arguably qualified players who will be on the ballot for the 2015-17 elections (minus players who will likely fall off or be elected this year; assuming maddux, glavine, and thomas go and biggo and piazza don't, and assuming palmeiro ekes out a stay of execution this year):

Jorge Posada
Vladimir Guerrero
Manny Ramirez
Ivan Rodriguez
Trevor Hoffman
Billy Wagner
Jim Edmonds
Ken Griffey
Carlos Delgado
Gary Sheffield
John Smoltz
Pedro Martinez
Randy Johnson
Jeff Bagwell
Craig Biggio
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Jeff Kent
Edgar Martinez
Don Mattingly
Fred McGriff
Mark McGwire
Mike Mussina
Rafael Palmeiro
Mike Piazza
Tim Raines
Curt Schilling
Lee Smith
Sammy Sosa
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker

the only ones i see going in for sure in those years are johnson, griffey, pedro, smoltz, biggio, bagwell, piazza.

Tigers' Lou Whitaker: Jack Morris 'was no better' than myself, Alan Trammell

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140105/SPORTS0104/301050031#ixzz2pZc532iG

“I don’t know what to say about Jack,” Whitaker said during the MLB Network Radio interview. “Jack was good, Jack was a stud in his own way. Jack Morris probably deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.”

But before Trammell?

That question drew a laugh from Whitaker, whose interview lasted only a little more than three minutes as hosts Bowden and Jeff Joyce rushed the uncomfortable segment to the finish line.

So Maddux might become the first player ever to get 100% vote? Surprises me that I didn't happen yet to the likes of Mays or Ruth.

i wouldn't be surprised if some asshole ended up submitting a blank ballot.

glavine and thomas are well above 90% right now which is pretty surprising. biggio looks close. palmeiro looks like toast. kent's showing is really poor.

I'd bet against that. I was thinking the same initially--147 out of 147 so far--but realized that the handful of people who don't vote for him would never make their ballot public. He may break the pct. record, though--Ryan or Seaver, I think.

Here's something I mentioned last year: Graham Womack's online poll for the 50 greatest players not in the Hall.

http://baseballpastandpresent.com/2014/01/06/50-baseball-players-hall-fame-version-4-0/

(Bet against unanimity, I meant.)

yeah there is just no way he gets on everyone's ballot

What's surprising me far more is Glavine running around 97%. I've got to believe that's powered to a degree by Maddux/Glavine sentiment; he's a deserving HOF'er, but he seems much more like an 85-90% guy to me (which may in fact be where he ends up).

David Schoenfield makes the case for J.T. Snow:

"Won six Gold Gloves, twice knocked in 100 runs and once saved Dusty Baker's kid from possible death in a World Series game."

http://ww2.hdnux.com/photos/11/14/55/2411337/11/628x471.jpg

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/43325/the-big-huge-hall-of-fame-post-part-1

The average career WAR for those 14 is 70.2; the mean is at 68

and once saved Dusty Baker's kid from possible death in a World Series game.

This alone > Jack Morris' various accomplishments

Jack only saved people who were clinically dead--he rescued to the score.

This is really a remarkable stat:

28. Richie Sexson (17.9 WAR) -- One of 30 players to have at least three seasons with at least 39 home runs and 120 RBIs. Twelve are in the Hall of Fame. All the others played in the 1990s or 2000s.

‏@ajcbraves
Chipper Jones on ex-#Brave Maddux: “Some dumb (bleep) will probably leave him off the ballot because no one else has been a unanimous pick."

ha!

So Maddux might become the first player ever to get 100% vote?

nope

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/01/07/ken-gurnicks-hall-of-fame-ballot-is-perhaps-the-laziest-and-most-willfully-ignorant-ever

chipper otm anyway

gurnick's not a bad beat writer but I feel like he deserves all the shit flung his way on the internet today

he also claimed he wont vote for anyone going forward, period.

JIM BOWDEN @JimBowdenESPNxm
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Ken Gurnick just told us that he’ll abstain from Hall of Fame voting going forward. He will not vote again. Sirius 209 XM 89

Hope that guy burns in hell for his quirky hall of fame opinion

let's face it though, jack morris was a really good pitcher. like jamie moyer good.

when are the results announced? so I can read slightly less about this until the induction?