It's happening.
I think the turning point (from a probable win to a definitive win) was last week's revelation that the Coalition knows fuck-all about economics, despite this being its one perceived strength. After 12 years of slippery deception, the emperor has no clothes, and no other strength on which to fall back.
Commentators are unanimous and firm in their confidence that the ALP will win. According to Chris Uhlmann, Labor is measured but ebullient, and the Coalition is "grimly determined."
Advertising ends on Wednesday. The Coalition is pushing unions because it can't find a cut-through message. This will ramp up but probably not change, and probably have no effect anyway.
Meanwhile Labor this week shattered just about every negative stereotype it's been given by showing true leadership in fiscal restraint (thereby actually showing up the government in terms of economic responsibility), and expressing once and for all the stark differences between it and the Coalition.
Yesterday's pork-barrelling finding will severely damage the Coalition, but what's another nail in an already nailed-shut coffin? It could be the difference between Labor winning 96 seats and 102 seats in the lower house, which is academic when 76 seats is enough.
What I said weeks ago about status appears to have been otm. Rudd is resolute and the Coalition is (uncharacteristically, yet normally for this year) running around in circles.
I expect Coalition ministers to start publicly breaking down any day now. Barnaby Joyce was first this week, but it'll get worse. Probably Tuesday, if the next Newspoll shows a widening.
― Autumn Almanac, Thursday, 15 November 2007 22:14 (sixteen years ago) link
Hey, and it's also likely that Howard will lose Bennelong. Seriously. McKew is cranking up the rhetoric something fierce atm. I don't think Labor even expected that.
― Autumn Almanac, Thursday, 15 November 2007 22:17 (sixteen years ago) link
:D:D:D post, xpost, xxpost
― estela, Thursday, 15 November 2007 22:18 (sixteen years ago) link
The most interesting statistic in all of this is the trajectory of the major polls.
I always said that people would vote out Howard if someone good came along, and that Latham didn't rouse enough confidence in voters. Rudd's entrance was met with positive polling which hasn't changed. Nothing the Coalition has done all year has had any effect on the polls. They've not even narrowed (perceptibly) during the campaign period, despite consensus to the contrary.
My theory now -- as it was months ago -- is that people just want to get rid of Howard, and nothing he can do would ever have changed this; and that, in the context of Howard's hate-fuelled politics, Rudd can't possibly be worse.
The past 8-9 days have seen a shift in the playing field (new strength for Rudd, new weakness for Howard), so I think that, for the first time all year, the Coalition will lose a serious amount of support to Rudd.
― Autumn Almanac, Thursday, 15 November 2007 22:31 (sixteen years ago) link
xpost I WILL EAT CHOCOLATE AND DRINK BEER AND HUG STRANGERS UNTIL I EXPLODE.
― Autumn Almanac, Thursday, 15 November 2007 22:32 (sixteen years ago) link
FUCK!! Abbott says WorkChoices is good because if you don't like your job, quit
"I accept that certain protections, in inverted commas, are not what they were, I accept that that has largely gone. I accept that," he said.
Death throes.
― Autumn Almanac, Thursday, 15 November 2007 23:10 (sixteen years ago) link
And I doubt there's any coming back from this
John Howard’s anointed successor Peter Costello made his name in the early 1990’s destroying the parliamentary career of the Labor Member for Canberra Ros Kelly after she was implicated by the Audit Office in the whiteboard affair. Her crime had been to use a whiteboard (which she later erased) to “shovel funds to marginal Labor electorates prior to the March 1993 election”.
She dished out $60 million.
The Regional Partnership Program directed by Peter Costello’s colleagues [under the Howard govt] didn’t even use a whiteboard. The Audit Office finds that many of the reasons for its grants weren’t documented at all.
It shelled out $350 million.
The culture that allowed it to happen appears to pervade the Howard government.
[...]
The Coalition looks poorly placed to win an election about competence.
― Autumn Almanac, Thursday, 15 November 2007 23:35 (sixteen years ago) link
But it's fucking actually happening, isn't it?
Oh, dear God, I hope so. If they don't get chucked out this time, nothing will do it (save perhaps pictures of Howard and Costello having sex with each other, an image I apologise for inflicting upon you).
I was surprised the 7:30 Report last night did nothing on the regional rorts story, though (though what they did cover--the polling--was not comforting for Howard and co).
― James Morrison, Thursday, 15 November 2007 23:57 (sixteen years ago) link
Latest Morgan face-to-face poll has ALP TPP on 56.5% (up 0.5%) and primary on 47% (up 3.5%). Coalition primary on 39%.
A formal summation of this poll is Labor to win in A FUCKING LANDSLIDE.
― Autumn Almanac, Friday, 16 November 2007 02:55 (sixteen years ago) link
Oh and taken last weekend (post-rate rise and pre-launches), which is significant.
― Autumn Almanac, Friday, 16 November 2007 02:56 (sixteen years ago) link
O Bitter Irony!!!! (strictly in the Alannis Morriset sense)
A real-life Trade Union Thug, absolutely faithful to the stereotype, lurches into plain view 10 days before polling day - and it turns out to be the single TUT Howard can't sling muck at in a blue fit: Paul Mullett of the Police Association.
― Fred Nerk, Friday, 16 November 2007 08:10 (sixteen years ago) link
u got s3rv3d
― King Boy Pato, Friday, 16 November 2007 11:10 (sixteen years ago) link
Sportingbet Coalition $3.60.
They're fucked.
― Autumn Almanac, Friday, 16 November 2007 20:17 (sixteen years ago) link
Looks like it.
― moley, Friday, 16 November 2007 23:48 (sixteen years ago) link
Huzzah!
― James Morrison, Friday, 16 November 2007 23:50 (sixteen years ago) link
<a href="http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/11/17/the-final-countdown/">Possum</a> has predicted not only a clear win for Labor, but also the demise of the Liberal party.
The political and media system has caught up to what we’ve been saying for the last 5-6 months (this site has actually been running 6 months to the day, as of yesterday).
The message is clear - the game is over.
That is what makes it so dangerous.
If Coalition members lose the plot, if recrimination starts creeping into the last week of the campaign as government members fail to come to terms with the electoral reality, if members become more concerned with saving their own skin now that the fight to save the government is lost - it could all get very ugly very, very quickly.
If the ever cumulating misdemeanours of an 11 year administration start leaking out, replete with documentary evidence from the many technocrats and political operatives with long standing grievances that now see the twin windows of opportunity and immunity offering the sweetest revenge of all, the loss could turn into a rout.
He goes on to state, in no uncertain terms, that the party could begin to collapse within days.
DAYS.
― Autumn Almanac, Saturday, 17 November 2007 06:48 (sixteen years ago) link
oh fucking tags.
Oh and Centrebet now has Coalition's odds at $4.60, a jump of more than $1 in 24 hours. Not a typo.
― Autumn Almanac, Saturday, 17 November 2007 07:18 (sixteen years ago) link
Amazing.
― moley, Saturday, 17 November 2007 07:33 (sixteen years ago) link
roffle roffle roffle
― haitch, Saturday, 17 November 2007 07:41 (sixteen years ago) link
i take plenty of notice of centrebet after they got '04 so right when many others didn't.
― haitch, Saturday, 17 November 2007 07:44 (sixteen years ago) link
Centrebet hit $4.95 this morning (since come back down to $4.60). I don't mind saying I'm REALLY fucking excited now.
― Autumn Almanac, Saturday, 17 November 2007 23:53 (sixteen years ago) link
From Ozpolitics:
Last Sunday, the average probability of a Coalition win from the five bookmakers I am tracking was 30.6 per cent. This morning it was 20.9 per cent.
It goes on to list all five at odds of $4.50, except Centrebet which is higher.
http://www.ozpolitics.info/election2007/betchart-odds.png
Going by what haitch said there's no competition anymore. I mean really.
― Autumn Almanac, Saturday, 17 November 2007 23:57 (sixteen years ago) link
Classic front page on today's Sunday Age:
John Howard, Ben Cousins and Paul Mullett sharing the fron page.
Currently that trio would be the three least employable people in Australia.
― Fred Nerk, Sunday, 18 November 2007 05:04 (sixteen years ago) link
But who's going to be the new Socceroos manager? It's the more wide open election now.
― King Boy Pato, Sunday, 18 November 2007 07:11 (sixteen years ago) link
No Dick Advocaat now...maybe Jurgen Klinsmann?
― King Boy Pato, Sunday, 18 November 2007 07:12 (sixteen years ago) link
GO FOR GROWTH is now joined by DON'T RISK OUR ECONOMY WITH LABOR.
Clearly they listened to all the commentators who said mixing messages is killing the campaign. Dense.
― Autumn Almanac, Sunday, 18 November 2007 07:54 (sixteen years ago) link
By this I mean Howard's making all his speeches in front of two differently-coloured backboards, each with a different slogan. It even looks disorganised.
― Autumn Almanac, Sunday, 18 November 2007 07:55 (sixteen years ago) link
Well, it's all over now: http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22774600-5001031,00.html
― King Boy Pato, Sunday, 18 November 2007 08:10 (sixteen years ago) link
When even the fucking Daily Telegraph turns on you, you're stuffed as a Liberal PM.
― King Boy Pato, Sunday, 18 November 2007 08:14 (sixteen years ago) link
Still, our old friends at the Melbourne Nazi Party Newsletter Herald-Sun are sticking to the cause because THE SOCIALISTS ARE HIDING UNDER THE BED TO STEAL OUR PLASMA TELEVISIONS!!
― King Boy Pato, Sunday, 18 November 2007 08:16 (sixteen years ago) link
K****** K****** left the group Am I tired of Kevin Rudd asking himself rhetorical questions? Yes.
;_;
― W4LTER, Sunday, 18 November 2007 08:42 (sixteen years ago) link
The Herald Scum is far more centrist than it used to be. A new editor came on last year and he's not your typical Murdoch extremist right-wing nazi.
― Autumn Almanac, Sunday, 18 November 2007 10:18 (sixteen years ago) link
Oh and note that the Telegraph editorial doesn't recommend Rudd without sucking off Howard about 12 times.
― Autumn Almanac, Sunday, 18 November 2007 10:19 (sixteen years ago) link
Well, as if they were going to fully get away with it!
― King Boy Pato, Sunday, 18 November 2007 11:26 (sixteen years ago) link
Turnbull on track to lose seat.
I wish things would start happening today.
― Autumn Almanac, Sunday, 18 November 2007 22:04 (sixteen years ago) link
I know--the tension is killing me.
― James Morrison, Sunday, 18 November 2007 23:28 (sixteen years ago) link
IT'S ON
Daily Telegraph headline: LIBS AT WAR
With even the Tele turning against them, they're fucked.
― Autumn Almanac, Monday, 19 November 2007 00:09 (sixteen years ago) link
MORE
Former New South Wales Liberal leader Peter Debnam has broken ranks with the Federal Coalition, saying the Kyoto protocol should have been ratified long ago.
Why would a Liberal break ranks five days from the election? IT'S ON CUNCE.
― Autumn Almanac, Monday, 19 November 2007 02:22 (sixteen years ago) link
I've just had a flash-back to the last ep of the second series of 'House of Cards' where Sir Ian McKellen plays a detestable Tory PM whose tenure looks absolutely on its beam end, so MI5 arrange his assassination to smooth the path of his successor.
The spin-doctors here have five days to stage a botched half-assed 'attempt' on Howard's life, where neither his nor anybody else's life is ever remotely in any danger, but is still dramatic enough to lead the nightly news and realistic enough to be convincing until Sunday. Logistically is it possible? Because that is one of the few scenarios in which the coalition is salvageable.
― Fred Nerk, Monday, 19 November 2007 02:42 (sixteen years ago) link
It's looking that way.
It'd take the wind out of my sails if Howard were assassinated. I want to see the fuck go down hard, not be some kind of martyr for racists.
― Autumn Almanac, Monday, 19 November 2007 02:46 (sixteen years ago) link
Hey and tomorrow's Newspoll is the one that makes Howard and his men go all mental every time it widens. A dip is likely, followed by an explosion that'll make what's happened today look like Songs of Praise.
― Autumn Almanac, Monday, 19 November 2007 02:48 (sixteen years ago) link
Can we not talk about assasinations? I dont like testing the fates.
― Trayce, Monday, 19 November 2007 03:19 (sixteen years ago) link
I'm really starting to get scared now.
I don't know if it's just a collective last-minute fear that Labor will lose ground in the final days, but I'm a giant bag of nerves today. Terrified that someone on the ALP front bench will pull a handshake moment and flub the entire campaign.
Yes two big things went wrong for the Coalition today but I need MORE ffs. I've got to be, got to be certain.
― Autumn Almanac, Monday, 19 November 2007 04:12 (sixteen years ago) link
byoobs, innit
― W4LTER, Monday, 19 November 2007 04:18 (sixteen years ago) link
^Obviously trying to "me, too" Rudd there.
― W4LTER, Monday, 19 November 2007 04:22 (sixteen years ago) link
Christing fuck!
Prime Minister John Howard says if the Coalition wins Saturday's federal election a future Labor government would never be able to repeal the Government's controversial WorkChoices legislation.
"If we win on Saturday then the reforms that we have brought about will never be reversed by a future federal Labor government," he said.
"They will become part of the furniture. They will become so embedded in our business and workplace culture that no future Labor government would be able to reverse them."
Sounds like a warning, doesn't it?
Yet another gift to Labor. This game is over.
― Autumn Almanac, Monday, 19 November 2007 05:58 (sixteen years ago) link
Yeah uhhh... that just sounds like a baldfaced threat! WTF, is he insane?
― Trayce, Monday, 19 November 2007 06:05 (sixteen years ago) link
I mean at this point, he might as well be getting dragged away by the authorities, shaking his flabby little fist and shouting "I would have got away with it, if it wasn't for those meddling kids!".
It does seem weird that, after spending several months spending our money on ads pushing the bloody thing, knowing fully well that the country hates it, that today -- five days before polling -- he's telling the electorate that now is your only chance to get rid of them.
This may look like a totally misguided strategy with no grounding in reality, but upon closer inspection it becomes clear that Howard is a senile fucking spazmo.
All Labor needs is a soundbite of this speech and it's won the election in a stupendous avalanche.
― Autumn Almanac, Monday, 19 November 2007 06:11 (sixteen years ago) link