"a recession is when your neighbor loses his job; a depression is when you lose yours" (i've seen that quote attributed to truman and reagan, among others).
i think that an economic depression is an economic downturn that lasts more than one year and an at least 10% decrease in a nation's economy during that period.
― Eisbaer, Monday, 17 March 2008 04:07 (sixteen years ago) link
Bear Stearns was on the brink of financial collapse Friday when JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500) and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said they would provide the brokerage a short-term loan. Bear was dealing with a classic run-on-the-bank: The firm's short-term creditors refused to lend the firm any more money and simultaneously demanded repayment of outstanding debt.
O_O
― Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved, Monday, 17 March 2008 04:12 (sixteen years ago) link
In the nineteenth century, these were called "panics". Then some bright early version of a PR-type person substituted the more soothing euphemism "business depression".
Consequently, President Hoover spent a vast amount of time in 1930 and 1931 making soothing speeches about how the "depression" was a temporary matter and "prosperity was just around the corner." By the time he was done the great public had connected the term "depression" with a soul-scathing cash famine.
Thus, the new euphemism "recession" was born. Now the public (especially those who weathered 1981-84) has learned to connect "recession" with a soul-searing cash drought. No new term has been substituted as of yet, although the term "banana" was attempted by one Fed chairman with an odd sense of humor.
― Aimless, Monday, 17 March 2008 04:13 (sixteen years ago) link
http://weblogs.newsday.com/sports/watchdog/blog/wl_100208.jpg
― Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved, Monday, 17 March 2008 04:14 (sixteen years ago) link
the early 1980s recession was definitely the worst economic downturn since the great depression (at least till now). though that one was caused by the feds (under volcker) setting the prime rate at close to 20%(!) in order to kill late 1970s inflation dead (and we may yet see that kind of inflation given how bernanke has been shitting out money). depending on where in the USA you lived, it probably seemed a helluva lot like another Great Depression -- e.g., i'm old enough to remember what allentown/bethlehem, PA were like before the 1980s; both towns today are a hollowed-out shell of what they once were. shit, if you live in some parts of the USA right NOW (e.g., around detroit and cleveland), it probably ALREADY feels like another Great Depression.
― Eisbaer, Monday, 17 March 2008 04:57 (sixteen years ago) link
and for those who really wanna shit their pants -- is the head of lehman brothers whistling past a graveyard?
― Eisbaer, Monday, 17 March 2008 04:59 (sixteen years ago) link
oh man if more than just bear stearns winds up closing shop before this quarter's out it's going to be a fucking party
― El Tomboto, Monday, 17 March 2008 05:18 (sixteen years ago) link
You know, I knew Kudlow was off the deep end, but I hadn't realized HOW deep.
― Ned Raggett, Monday, 17 March 2008 05:29 (sixteen years ago) link
That sign in the bagel shop is appaulling!!
It's "trebled", damnit!!!
― JTS, Monday, 17 March 2008 05:57 (sixteen years ago) link
Why didn't I graduate college 10 years earlier?
― Catsupppppppppppppp dude 茄蕃, Monday, 17 March 2008 06:05 (sixteen years ago) link
Seriously, I could have made and lost a few hundred grand and would have been smart enough to have saved money to weather this shitstorm.
golds gone up $25 dollars this morning already and europe and us markets haven't even opened.
$1025 now, going to be a pretty rough day it seems!
― laxalt, Monday, 17 March 2008 06:49 (sixteen years ago) link
Gonna be a rough decade from here on in.
So if you were 56 years old and had a 401(k), would you take the penalty and cash out now?
― Eazy, Monday, 17 March 2008 06:53 (sixteen years ago) link
so what should i invest in at this point besides a shotgun and a water purifier
― max, Monday, 17 March 2008 06:59 (sixteen years ago) link
find something to sell to freaked-out white dudes. those guys will buy anything.
― tipsy mothra, Monday, 17 March 2008 07:01 (sixteen years ago) link
Just make something that Europeans and Canadians will buy.
― Eazy, Monday, 17 March 2008 07:09 (sixteen years ago) link
I wouldn't rely on Europeans...they are on same path just a little behind
― laxalt, Monday, 17 March 2008 07:10 (sixteen years ago) link
so fucking glad I work for the govt
― El Tomboto, Monday, 17 March 2008 09:02 (sixteen years ago) link
Even though I live in the UK I'm glad that I work for an org that's funded by a flat universal tax fee rather than anything dependent on profits
― Tracer Hand, Monday, 17 March 2008 10:29 (sixteen years ago) link
Nothing to fear but the Daily Mail.
― Ed, Monday, 17 March 2008 10:30 (sixteen years ago) link
Even though I live in the UK
This part of that sentence is probably superfluous
― laxalt, Monday, 17 March 2008 10:31 (sixteen years ago) link
Maybe, but this comment on a Larry Elliot article the other day made me wonder:
Please note that the dooomsters are missing one thing, reality. The reality is that in the new global economy the US growth engine is something of a side show. Globalisation has done one good thing, it has reduced the world's reliance on US growth. Anyone doubting it should look up the latest Chinese growth stats and tell the rest of us on this blog just how small the US export component of China GDP actually is....they will realise that China growth is not reliant on rising US growth. Neither is Russia's, India's, Brazil's, etc etc. Decoupling is not a wonky idea, it is a fact in a global economy that we have now, and for the next 15-years, wherein the primary driver is not US demand but internal infrastructural demand from the emerging markets (Brazil, China, India, Russia, and others). A US GDP slowdown from 4% real growth to 1-1.5% in 2008 does nothing to stop this process. As the UK is the epi-centre for all the financial, legal, insurance service provision for the new global economy, we too are surprisingly unreliant on US growth. These facts are rarely appreciated outside of capital markets... but facts are facts, the trends in the past few months have become clear. The UK will grow only slighlty under trend in 2008 before growth goes back to trend or above in 2009. This is not the year to fret about marginal debt, it is the year to avoid USD assets.
― Tracer Hand, Monday, 17 March 2008 10:40 (sixteen years ago) link
This may be true for Russia India Brazil (Mexico?)
But the situation for UK Spain Ireland Holland is bad not just because of exposure to US but because of own problems.
The way i read it might be more like
This is not the year to fret about marginal debt, it is the year to avoid USD assets and GBP assets
― laxalt, Monday, 17 March 2008 10:47 (sixteen years ago) link
So, gold then, do you prefer a safety deposit box or a sock under the floorboards?
― Ed, Monday, 17 March 2008 10:49 (sixteen years ago) link
Allocated physical Zurich or London
― laxalt, Monday, 17 March 2008 10:51 (sixteen years ago) link
Greenspan:
“The essential problem is that our models — both risk models and econometric models — as complex as they have become, are still too simple to capture the full array of governing variables that drive global economic reality,” Greenspan writes.
He goes on to say that bubble discontinuities, by their nature, can’t be predicted, and must pop on their own. “If, as I strongly suspect, periods of euphoria are very difficult to suppress as they build, they will not collapse until the speculative fever breaks on its own,” he writes. “Paradoxically, to the extent risk management succeeds in identifying such episodes, it can prolong and enlarge the period of euphoria. But risk management can never reach perfection. It will eventually fail and a disturbing reality will be laid bare, prompting an unexpected and sharp discontinuous response.’
i.e. Economists talk a lot of shit and don't really know what they're doing.
― Hurting 2, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:04 (sixteen years ago) link
Weimar America, wahoo
― Dr Morbius, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:11 (sixteen years ago) link
periods of euphoria are very difficult to suppress as they build
easy, duke
― Tracer Hand, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:13 (sixteen years ago) link
lol jim kramer 1 week ago "bear stearns is fine! do not take your money out of bear! thats just silly!"
http://www.redlasso.com/ClipPlayer.aspx?id=ae47b67d-2523-4946-a2ad-aadc68176f67
― jhøshea, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:28 (sixteen years ago) link
I don't get why people listen to that guy. Do they really think he's going to let them in on good investment tips at the top of his lungs over national cable television?
― Hurting 2, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:30 (sixteen years ago) link
Greenspan is worried his name is going to be all over this for the rest of time
― laxalt, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:31 (sixteen years ago) link
i fucking hope so all the irrationally exuberant greenspan worship is so gross
― jhøshea, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:34 (sixteen years ago) link
I think everybody realizes that now. It's funny, the number of things that the experts realize now.
― Tracer Hand, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:37 (sixteen years ago) link
Globalisation has done one good thing, it has reduced the world's reliance on US growth. Anyone doubting it should look up the latest Chinese growth stats and tell the rest of us on this blog just how small the US export component of China GDP actually is....they will realise that China growth is not reliant on rising US growth. Neither is Russia's, India's, Brazil's, etc etc.
This is pretty much true for China, Russia (they are basically propped up by oil revenues anyway??), India, and Brazil. Not so much for Japan (although Japan is certainly LESS reliant than it was 10-20 years ago), Canada...
― jessie monster, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:41 (sixteen years ago) link
China will definitely come out of this okay purely because of the size of its domestic market and a reduction in insanely high growth rates isn't really all that awful.
― jessie monster, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:43 (sixteen years ago) link
got big inflation problems though, i think?
― laxalt, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:47 (sixteen years ago) link
also china is full of MAGIC
― max, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:58 (sixteen years ago) link
and LUCK
888
― jhøshea, Monday, 17 March 2008 16:01 (sixteen years ago) link
where can i buy futures in PIXIE DUST
― max, Monday, 17 March 2008 16:02 (sixteen years ago) link
buy palladium instead
― remy bean, Monday, 17 March 2008 16:04 (sixteen years ago) link
i'm turning to theft of catalytic converters of large offensive s.u.v.s
palladium is the new gold, bitch
they're also artificially keeping their manufacturing costs down, which should bite them in the ass but PIXIE DUST etc. etc. xxp
― jessie monster, Monday, 17 March 2008 16:04 (sixteen years ago) link
what is the ADAMANTIUM market like nowadays
― max, Monday, 17 March 2008 16:06 (sixteen years ago) link
it's cutthroat
― remy bean, Monday, 17 March 2008 16:07 (sixteen years ago) link
buy kryptonite -- it's a hedge against the falling dollar AND superman
― Hurting 2, Monday, 17 March 2008 16:13 (sixteen years ago) link
well, some of us here may take what this article says to heart ...
― Eisbaer, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 04:27 (sixteen years ago) link
and then there's this interesting detail from the proposed bear stearns acquisition
Michael Hecht, at Banc of America Securities, in a note today wrote that J.P. Morgan should be paying as much as $40 a share for Bear, even factoring in the $6 billion for litigation reserves, the cost of deleveraging Bear and integration costs including tech and facilities.
someone's gonna get paid.
― Eisbaer, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 04:32 (sixteen years ago) link
but seriously guys.
what is a shitbin? is it like a euphemism for toilet? aren't euphemisms supposed to be less crass? or are there actually bins that people shit in? is it a british thing?
― The Brainwasher, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 04:42 (sixteen years ago) link
Thread Started by TOMBRIT
― BIG HOOS aka the steendriver, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 04:45 (sixteen years ago) link