So, gold then, do you prefer a safety deposit box or a sock under the floorboards?
― Ed, Monday, 17 March 2008 10:49 (sixteen years ago) link
Allocated physical Zurich or London
― laxalt, Monday, 17 March 2008 10:51 (sixteen years ago) link
Greenspan:
“The essential problem is that our models — both risk models and econometric models — as complex as they have become, are still too simple to capture the full array of governing variables that drive global economic reality,” Greenspan writes.
He goes on to say that bubble discontinuities, by their nature, can’t be predicted, and must pop on their own. “If, as I strongly suspect, periods of euphoria are very difficult to suppress as they build, they will not collapse until the speculative fever breaks on its own,” he writes. “Paradoxically, to the extent risk management succeeds in identifying such episodes, it can prolong and enlarge the period of euphoria. But risk management can never reach perfection. It will eventually fail and a disturbing reality will be laid bare, prompting an unexpected and sharp discontinuous response.’
i.e. Economists talk a lot of shit and don't really know what they're doing.
― Hurting 2, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:04 (sixteen years ago) link
Weimar America, wahoo
― Dr Morbius, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:11 (sixteen years ago) link
periods of euphoria are very difficult to suppress as they build
easy, duke
― Tracer Hand, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:13 (sixteen years ago) link
lol jim kramer 1 week ago "bear stearns is fine! do not take your money out of bear! thats just silly!"
http://www.redlasso.com/ClipPlayer.aspx?id=ae47b67d-2523-4946-a2ad-aadc68176f67
― jhøshea, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:28 (sixteen years ago) link
I don't get why people listen to that guy. Do they really think he's going to let them in on good investment tips at the top of his lungs over national cable television?
― Hurting 2, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:30 (sixteen years ago) link
Greenspan is worried his name is going to be all over this for the rest of time
― laxalt, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:31 (sixteen years ago) link
i fucking hope so all the irrationally exuberant greenspan worship is so gross
― jhøshea, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:34 (sixteen years ago) link
I think everybody realizes that now. It's funny, the number of things that the experts realize now.
― Tracer Hand, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:37 (sixteen years ago) link
Globalisation has done one good thing, it has reduced the world's reliance on US growth. Anyone doubting it should look up the latest Chinese growth stats and tell the rest of us on this blog just how small the US export component of China GDP actually is....they will realise that China growth is not reliant on rising US growth. Neither is Russia's, India's, Brazil's, etc etc.
This is pretty much true for China, Russia (they are basically propped up by oil revenues anyway??), India, and Brazil. Not so much for Japan (although Japan is certainly LESS reliant than it was 10-20 years ago), Canada...
― jessie monster, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:41 (sixteen years ago) link
China will definitely come out of this okay purely because of the size of its domestic market and a reduction in insanely high growth rates isn't really all that awful.
― jessie monster, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:43 (sixteen years ago) link
got big inflation problems though, i think?
― laxalt, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:47 (sixteen years ago) link
also china is full of MAGIC
― max, Monday, 17 March 2008 15:58 (sixteen years ago) link
and LUCK
888
― jhøshea, Monday, 17 March 2008 16:01 (sixteen years ago) link
where can i buy futures in PIXIE DUST
― max, Monday, 17 March 2008 16:02 (sixteen years ago) link
buy palladium instead
― remy bean, Monday, 17 March 2008 16:04 (sixteen years ago) link
i'm turning to theft of catalytic converters of large offensive s.u.v.s
palladium is the new gold, bitch
they're also artificially keeping their manufacturing costs down, which should bite them in the ass but PIXIE DUST etc. etc. xxp
― jessie monster, Monday, 17 March 2008 16:04 (sixteen years ago) link
what is the ADAMANTIUM market like nowadays
― max, Monday, 17 March 2008 16:06 (sixteen years ago) link
it's cutthroat
― remy bean, Monday, 17 March 2008 16:07 (sixteen years ago) link
buy kryptonite -- it's a hedge against the falling dollar AND superman
― Hurting 2, Monday, 17 March 2008 16:13 (sixteen years ago) link
well, some of us here may take what this article says to heart ...
― Eisbaer, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 04:27 (sixteen years ago) link
and then there's this interesting detail from the proposed bear stearns acquisition
Michael Hecht, at Banc of America Securities, in a note today wrote that J.P. Morgan should be paying as much as $40 a share for Bear, even factoring in the $6 billion for litigation reserves, the cost of deleveraging Bear and integration costs including tech and facilities.
someone's gonna get paid.
― Eisbaer, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 04:32 (sixteen years ago) link
but seriously guys.
what is a shitbin? is it like a euphemism for toilet? aren't euphemisms supposed to be less crass? or are there actually bins that people shit in? is it a british thing?
― The Brainwasher, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 04:42 (sixteen years ago) link
Thread Started by TOMBRIT
― BIG HOOS aka the steendriver, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 04:45 (sixteen years ago) link
Fuck you.
― El Tomboto, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 04:49 (sixteen years ago) link
Bear had what, a $20B cap last year. Wowzers.
I'd be surprised if Lehman went tits up but the thing those fucking quants and Greenspan never seem to want to account for is the emotion involved in securities. They can't do it so they avoid it, and if Lehman goes down in the short term, it's gonna be for emotional reasons and model driven. This whole fucking thing reeks of LTCM all over again.
― Dandy Don Weiner, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 11:11 (sixteen years ago) link
is it a british thing?
No.
I always thought it was like 'sin bin' but, you know, worse?
― Ned Trifle II, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 11:16 (sixteen years ago) link
I never heard of it before this thread
So people are expecting a full 1% cut today? Is that priced in? Does this mean if they pull a surprise and cut by only 0.5% (only!) that it could arrest the dollars fall, momentarily? 1% seems like full panic but that seems to be what is on the cards
― laxalt, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 11:25 (sixteen years ago) link
interesting that the pound is just about the only currency not rising against the dollar
― laxalt, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 11:26 (sixteen years ago) link
although not surprising
It is rising, it's up a whole cent since this morning!
― Ned Trifle II, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 11:39 (sixteen years ago) link
why the charts so rosy?
― Tracer Hand, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 16:37 (sixteen years ago) link
free money on its way? lot of volatility, seems everytime there is a big drop theres a rally later till the next dose of bad news and subsequent drop
all short term noise surely
― laxalt, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 16:51 (sixteen years ago) link
there was a pretty good article about the state of the dollar in the NYTimes this weekend. Interest rate cuts logically won't stop the fall of the dollar because it'll just encourage investors to buy other currencies to get a better return on their investment.
― jessie monster, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 18:06 (sixteen years ago) link
well sure rate cuts will increase fall of dollar, but i mean if 1% is priced in and then it ended up only being 0.5% it could have a 'less negative impact' on the dollar, but a worse effect on markets as they want their crack hit of free money?
― badboymakaveli from Windhoek, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 18:15 (sixteen years ago) link
75 basis point cut to 2 1/4
limbo limbo limbo
― The Macallan 18 Year, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 18:20 (sixteen years ago) link
Things are getting very weird very fast -- and will probably get even weirder, faster, as the train wreck of bad debt meets the Saint Paddy's Day Parade of bacchanalian excess at the grade-crossing of destiny. The train is carrying America's financial system, but the engine driving it is peak oil, because declining energy resources necessarily means declining capital wealth -- and declining value of all the institutions, instruments, and markers that denote that wealth or hope to profit by trading in it. The fiasco leads straight to the necessary reinvention of American life on other terms and by other means.
― The Macallan 18 Year, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 18:24 (sixteen years ago) link
Yes looks like they are trying to walk the tightrope here...(shows how crazy things are that a 0.75% cut can be considered that way)
― laxalt, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 18:24 (sixteen years ago) link
let's all hope China keeps buying dollars.
― jessie monster, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 18:30 (sixteen years ago) link
are we in negative interest rate territory yet?
― brownie, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 18:34 (sixteen years ago) link
we should all be keeping our savings under our mattresses.
― jessie monster, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 18:36 (sixteen years ago) link
mattresses generate back pay! should I submit this to Readers Digest y/n?
― brownie, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 18:39 (sixteen years ago) link
omg did anyone else see jim kramer yesterday - raaaaare form - shit was apocalyptic
― jhøshea, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 18:40 (sixteen years ago) link
it should be the caption of a New Yorker cartoon. xp
― jessie monster, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 18:40 (sixteen years ago) link
Cramer can kiss my ass.
― Dandy Don Weiner, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 19:13 (sixteen years ago) link
jim cramer has been pretty amusing lately.
― El Tomboto, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 19:23 (sixteen years ago) link
"Bear Stearns is gonna be fiiiiiiine!"
― BIG HOOS aka the steendriver, Tuesday, 18 March 2008 19:44 (sixteen years ago) link