Buttload of Faith: the 2016 Presidential Primary Thread (Pt 2)

xp well i didn't say they/he were good at their job! You're probably right.

when you listen to him talk, with his words and the sound of his voice removed from the context of his rallies (and that video Tombot posted is good for this), he sounds like the absolute biggest moron to ever have a chance in a national election. and I'm counting Palin, because god bless her she at least tried to fake intelligence in those debates.

top man OTM. he'll have a permanent book-tour audience in the red states if he wants it, but be persona non grata everywhere else. not a great figurehead for a corporation. i could see it all eventually getting bought out and renamed something really generic sounding, like phillip morris becoming Altria.

he's in uncharted waters for sure, which is where someone would have to go in order to be the most historic reality start that ever walked the planet

interesting point top man, hadn't thought about it in quite those terms but makes total sense

I had not really been thinking about what the consequences of his guaranteed failure would mean for Trump himself

Kinda feel like Trump's right there with you.

lol

yeah i agree that trump Really Is a stupid bully who only wants and only senses domination. the presidential election is a reality show and he wants to win it. if he didn't want to win it he wouldn't be trump and i think he is trump. probably doesn't work to analyze him in rational long-game terms as if he really is a brilliant businessman (that's the character). but idk, i've been a little down recently and felt there aren't a lot of human desires stronger than domination :/

He was like one of those characters in an 18th-century comedy meant to embody a particular flavor of human folly.

lol!

Which is why I am on Disney World at present watching a grandad type wearing a canary yellow TRUMP shirt.

sort of the depressing thing about trump is you could decimate their argument with intelligence, wit, and evidence and he'd like roll his eyes and make fun of your shirt or fatal illness or w/e and his audience would cheer and his numbers would inch up.

Yahoo headline: Clinton No Longer Thinks Trump is Funny.

Was talking to someone this morning from the financial world, someone who has been to his house for dinner, etc, and she just couldn't figure him out, her memory of him and his family being perfectly nice, reasonably people, and him right now being a total lunatic. Maybe he's been swapped out for a (more) evil twin?

Ha, "reasonably people," that might be the best typo ever.

btw thanks djp i hadn't read that.

I watched as Trump strutted around the beautifully groomed clay tennis courts on his estate, managed by noted tennis pro Anthony Boulle. The courts had been prepped meticulously for a full day of scheduled matches. Trump took exception to the design of the spaces between courts. In particular, he didn’t like a small metal box—a pump and cooler for the water fountain alongside—which he thought looked ugly. He first questioned its placement, then crudely disparaged it, then kicked the box, which didn’t budge, and then stooped—red-faced and fuming—to tear it loose from its moorings, rupturing a water line and sending a geyser to soak the courts. Boulle looked horrified, a weekend of tennis abruptly drowned. Catching a glimpse of me watching, Trump grimaced.

“I guess that’ll have to be in your story,” he said.

“Pretty much,” I told him.

rich people know how to host, it's not rocket science (or brain surgery)

Clinton taking the obvious (and politically sensible) rhetorical position here: http://news.yahoo.com/trump-rises-clinton-preaches-love-kindness-090951921--election.html

Trump's best hope for actually winning enough electoral college votes to become president would be a pandemic of outrageous scandals, fatal illnesses and accidents resulting in serious brain insults among the other candidates, combined with mass hysteria and insanity among voters. Which is to say, he has a non-zero chance of winning, but it's a pretty damn remote chance.

some pretty serious brain insults among the field already imo

and one santorum that is just a plain insult

2 voters so far... it's an easy ballot! Send em in early!

lol

okay, lol, that was supposed to go in the "worst song of the year" poll, but same difference.

Doctor Casino (checking - yes, this time I'm sure it's Doctor Casino) speaks volumes of wisdom. Re: Cruz being "overwhelmingly better-liked by the republican electorate," yeah. But he is still hated by almost every prominent Republican. Can you imagine the nominating convention speeches?

Also forksclove, "vocal and hyperventilating minority" is right imo.

Can you imagine the nominating convention speeches?

I can and they would be hilarious

"A lot of people say Ted's not a likable guy..."

he is "leading" with 25-30% of the vote in a field of ten non-zero candidates, most of whose supporters are never going to switch their votes to him.

He's at 35%. What is the path for Rubio or Cruz to actually win primaries? That it requires lots of others to quit the race?

"A lot of people say Ted's not a likable guy...

...Ladies and gentlemen, Ted Cruz!"

I'm just gonna say it: Ted Cruz looks like a stalker.

Delicious: Carson threatening to leave GOP

It would be in such horrifically bad taste to make an analogy where the GOP is acting like Brer Rabbit begging Carson to throw it into the briar patch, and yet

Assuming Cruz, Carson, and Rubio don't quit and Cruz (who's ahead of the other two) gets the entirety of the Paul/Bush/Huckabee/Kasich/Christie/Fiorina vote, he's still behind Trump.

And Cruz's unlikability is twofold: first, he has burned enough bridges with his fellow congresscritters (e.g., McCain) to ensure he's anathema to party leadership. Second, his fatal charisma deficit keeps him out of the running with the general electorate. Even if parliamentary shrewdness and college-debater skillz get him past the first obstacle, the second looms before him like a glacial wall. Worry about Cruz? I refuz.

Here's a thing that makes me a little less scared about scary manbabies leading in the polls: they will likely tantrum themselves out of contention. Even if it doesn't happen, I hope the whispers about a brokered convention are enough to spur some of these children to take their balls and go independent.

DJP: hahaha

What is the path for Rubio or Cruz to actually win primaries?

My short take: Trump isn't going to win Iowa because he can't get the evangelical vote. My bet would be on Cruz at the moment (Rubio doesn't have the same pull w evangelicals as the Tedster). Trump might win New Hampshire but it's hard to tell, I could see it maybe going for Christie too. My guess based on the current situation is that the party establishment's gonna throw it's weight behind Rubio - the only candidate Clinton thinks presents a real challenge, party insiders like him, he's a young fresh latino face that they have delusions may appeal to other non-Cuban latinos, etc. I can see him actually winning primaries, glad-handling superdelegates, doing the political horse-trading necessary to cement party support, avoiding saying too much that's insane and/or crassly offensive. He's the safe bet. Cruz's path is more tortuous given how much the establishment hates him, but dude is methodical and his whole modus operandi is to figure out and exploit the rules of the game (which is why, for example, he has set up shop in places like Puerto Rico that other candidates don't even bother with). He knows it's about racking up numbers, no matter how, and if he can pull off an early primary win like in Iowa he will perhaps start to gather steam.

he's still behind Trump.

no. if Cruz wins Iowa he's AHEAD of Trump.

it's important to remember this is about delegates and not about poll numbers

"The party establishment throws its weight behind Rubio": I agree that this is likely. Rubio is seen by nativists as squishy on immigration and an amnesty supporter. The Trumpoids will never move to Rubio, but they can and will move to Cruz.

in short they are all fucked

it's important to remember this is about delegates and not about poll numbers

Obviously, but you're arguing for either somewhat of a tidal shift toward another candidate or some means of party establishment exerting an influence that I'm not at all sure that they have.

Cruz wins Iowa he's ahead of Trump until Trump wins New Hampshire and maybe Nevada and South Carolina.

impt iowa factoids: evangelical macher Bob Vader Plaats has endorsed Ted Cruz

and i see on twitter that Trump has started to shittalk Cruz, so, truce over i guess. here we go.

what fascinates me is that i've lived in america all my life. for more than two decades clinton has been one of the most hated people in america. that's her major electoral flaw, is that people hate her with such fervor and intensity that it's hard to imagine her possibly getting elected. and then the year she finally comes up for election, the moment the republican party has been preparing for for decades, for their leading candidate they drag up somebody even more hate-able than clinton. that's phenomental to me, simply phenomenal.

that said i don't think we're potentially looking at a mondale, mcgovern, or goldwater-level rout, at least assuming a two-party race. anybody with an (r) next to their name will win in kentucky, and their recent electoral history proves it. there are surely other states where this is the case, but i don't know them very well offhand. on the other hand, trump would by no means be a guaranteed winner in indiana- the donnelly/mourdock senate race is reasonably indicate of their political character.

trump's ability to take office is less than zero. clinton can just run ad council ads filled with rainbow coalition cast-offs. do one with the rainbow coalition reading the pledge of allegiance. (get a jewish guy to do the "under god" bit.) you probably don't even need a super pac, though if you do you could make it genuinely non-partisan.

as much as we like to carp about the obvious faults of the "winner-take-all" american democratic model, in this case it is clearly a huge asset. under a parliamentary system, the republicans would have to caucus with this scum. instead, his fascism achieves denunciation from pretty much everyone in a position of power. the only "victory" trump can achieve is to torpedo the fourth party system. there are way more safeguards against his taking power than there are against, say, le pen in france.

i mean, absolute worst case scenario, isis summons cthulhu and destroys half of new york the week before the election, everybody panics and votes for trump and... what? the day he takes the oath of office the democrats and republicans team up to impeach him. (technically you have to commit a crime to be impeached, but no president has ever been impeached in the us for other than base political reasons.) he has no military or paramilitary support, no organized base of power. he can't even make it as a warlord.

This is anecdotal evidence but every rational Republican/conservative I have spoken to has said that they will be voting for Clinton if Trump is the Republican nominee. Every single one.

yea you live in MA though they are different from other republicans

it's important to remember this is about delegates and not about poll numbers

― Οὖτις, Friday, December 11, 2015 2:40 PM (26 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

but if poll numbers (or the underlying voting intentions they represent) continue as they are it's not obvious winning iowa or new hampshire would do much. someone other than trump winning early on gives non-trumpists much needed coordination though.

He knows it's about racking up numbers, no matter how, and if he can pull off an early primary win like in Iowa he will perhaps start to gather steam.

how is this not something they all know?? are you saying some ppl just cross their fingers and hope that pumping up their poll numbers will convince delegates / party machinery to go for them?

Interesting NY Times editorial on the business consequences of Trump's racist blather. I had not read this before posting earlier.

Cruz wins Iowa he's ahead of Trump until Trump wins New Hampshire and maybe Nevada and South Carolina.

the x factor here is that Trump loses something. What does Trump do when he loses and how does that affect his chances elsewhere? this is not a minor question.

yea you live in MA though they are different from other republicans

Only a couple of these Republicans live in MA

Is Massachusetts so different?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ma/massachusetts_republican_presidential_primary-5205.html