Buttload of Faith: the 2016 Presidential Primary Thread (Pt 2)

also he's a pretty #darkhorse candidate and it would be funny to see him make a run and be like lol i'm voting for that guy

― rap is dad (it's a boy!)

yeah i'm just kidn of grasping at straws

Christie winning in New Hampshire would definitely add some extra lolz to the campaign

They'd have to move up that indictment-unsealing sched

speculating for a sec on Cruz getting the nomination - what would his strategy in the general election be? He seems smart enough to know that what he's currently peddling to the GOP base wouldn't sway enough of the general electorate, but how could he conceivably pivot away from all the noxious crap?

There's very little indication that he wants to that I've seen: "Ted Cruz doesn't give a shit what you think of him" is basically his angle.

"what he's currently peddling to the GOP base wouldn't sway enough of the general electorate, but how could he conceivably pivot away from all the noxious crap?"

Isn't that just as true of Trump, though? (I mean the "wouldn't sway," not "smart enough.")

Among the likeliest candidates, Republican nomination poll rankings are roughly the opposite of general-election poll rankings. That is, Trump and Cruz are leading the GOP primary crowd, but Rubio and Christie are more competitive vs. Clinton and Sanders.

Trump probably thinks he can persuade Mexicans, Muslims, and Asians that he doesn't hate them (after all, he knows some and they are "great people"), and he also has shown he can stake out non-insane-right-wing positions on stuff like raising taxes on the rich and abortion that could conceivably appeal to the center. I'm not saying he has a chance of successfully doing this, but this is probably what he thinks.

Cruz doesn't appear to have a moderating or conciliatory bone in his body.

there is murmuring in the political press that Cruz is too smart to believe much of what he says and is following his only conceivable path to the nomination-- and they will probably latch onto this secret gay marriage tape as proof of that

Cruz is super-ambitious. He'll bend himself into pretzels if he thinks it will get him into power. Once he's in power he'll use any underhanded trick to get what he wants. It is best to believe that he has already revealed most of what he wants to do. If the press delude themselves about that, they are fools.

There's nowhere for him to bend, though. He doesn't have a winning formula. I don't think any of them do (other than like maybe Rubio if he actually somehow wins the nomination and Clinton has a terrible campaign or something or Bernie wins and people panic about socialism).

pantsuit on fire

https://theintercept.com/2015/12/21/democratic-debate-spawns-fantasy-talk-on-encryption/

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/dec/19/hillary-clinton/fact-checking-hillary-clintons-claim-isis-using-vi/

Hillary said, "They are going to people showing videos of Donald Trump insulting Islam and Muslims in order to recruit more radical jihadists." Apparently she learned this from the following article

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/donald-trumps-muslim-bashing-aids-cause-terror-networks-say-experts-n476221

and its comments from Rita Katz.

"They love him from the sense that he is supporting their rhetoric," said Rita Katz with the SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors the social media activities of Islamic terrorist groups.

"They follow everything Donald Trump says," she noted. "When he says, 'No Muslims should be allowed in America,' they tell people, 'We told you America hates Muslims and here is proof.'"

On twitter, Katz further says that ISIS didn't use Trump in a video of their own, but that his words are being used to promote ISIS. What Hillary said isn't a stretch compared to what Katz said: if ISIS "uses Trump's rhetoric" in social media, it stands to reason that they are using transcriptions AND videos.

From the long profile of Jeb! in this week's New Yorker:

http://i66.tinypic.com/2i6c581.png

the new yorker zing is the coldest zing

aw

lonely jeb just thinking baout things

http://i.imgur.com/kW4qIjs.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/LS1FgZS.jpg

if anyone wants to go closer just let me know

Upon mature consideration, I don't gaf whether Jeb! has any close friends. It has only a very tangential relevance to the job of being a U.S. president. I very much gaf that he'd push a very conservative agenda.

the current New Yorker? Is the story on the site? I know they ran a Jeb! profile in October.

upon immature consideration, haw haw!

you impugn my display name!

New Dexter Filkins story:
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/01/04/swamped-the-political-scene-dexter-filkins

Maybe they were assuming he would be the frontrunner, or near it, by now.

you know what decisive events are most likely to happen in these "races" in January?

correct, nothing

http://www.slate.com/articles/double_x/doublex/2015/12/saying_nice_things_about_hillary_clinton_has_become_a_subversive_act.html

pretty smart tbh:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/264328-bush-challenges-trump-to-one-on-one-debate

I agree with the basic premise of that Slate article, which is that there is absolutely no version of HRC in the public eye that will not be twisted around and jeered at. She just hasn't got the warm, schmoozy, comfortable personality that voters adore. She's a natural policy wonk, not a natural politician.

She and Paul Ryan will hit it off very well.

i like hillary a lot. she seems like a good, warm person to me. ppl are just jerks.

i don't even believe that you believe that

i'm kind of sympathetic to the article b/c there's clearly a hefty dose of misogyny in the way a lot of ppl talk about HRC, and i find myself wondering how anyone could stand to be under the kind of scrutiny (or "scrutiny" over basically made-up scandals like whitewater, vince foster, and benghazi) she's been under for years without cracking up. i think she handles it about as well as anyone could. otoh it's a little bewildering to see ppl like sady doyle write as if the presidency is just some honorary title of awesomeness and HRC's actual politics are beside the point.

i also like hillary and find her genuine and relatable. dngaff what anyone might think of that. politically i'm more in line with bernie.

her politics aren't the exact same as mine but they're close enough (and i like her intangibles enough) that she's my first choice for potus 2016

http://i.imgur.com/OfIc2i3.jpg

the ascent of Cruz appears to have come at the expense of Carson, not Trump (as I would have guessed)

was walker seriously polling at #2 for a minute?

I think it's more like Cruz was the logical second choice for evangelicals jumping off the Carson train after it became clear it had wandered, Tootles-like, far from the tracks and never to return. Cruz's own activities in the same period may have helped cement this connection, but I still think it's more "fall of Carson" than "rise of Cruz."

bush deflating like a flat tire you try to pump once or twice before giving up

poor Tootles Carson, all those red flags and all he wanted to do was be president and smell the daisies.

all he wanted to do was sell more copies of his book

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED

all i know for sure is that trump is DEFINITELY about to flame out

I assume Bush's cratering began as soon as he opened his stupid mouth about 'supporting' his bro re iraq

all i know for sure is that trump is DEFINITELY about to flame out

― Karl Malone, Monday, December 28, 2015 3:11 PM (55 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I think I'm the last conspiracy theorist standing on Trump's candidacy but I am STILL convinced he has no intention of being president and will get out soon. It makes more sense that he is there to make Cruz look relatively moderate than that he is a HRC plant to decimate the competition and divert press attention away from her race.

one of the most fun parts of 2016 will be when Trump loses to Clinton and 44% of the country believes in a conspiracy theory about how the presidency was stolen from him

They seemed to be making a big deal out of Christie on the Sunday shows yesterday--that he'd win or come close in NH, and that he could go from there to be the Trump alternative. I can't really see it. Maybe he'll do well in NH (I assume there's more to that reasoning than the newspaper endorsement--surely such things count for next to nothing this year, if they ever did), but I can't see him ever overcoming his Obama problem, not to mention the other scandal.

xpost (i know, i know, it's early, no one's paying attention, he has no path to electoral victory, the RNC will conspire (teehee) to keep the delegates out of his hands if necessary, and he's definitely about to flame out any second now. but it's fun to think about)

it's hilarious that Chris Christie's great sin is that he hugged the president right after hurricane sandy when they were working together to help people together, rather than that he's a dumb asshole with an approval rating in the high 30s who has surrounded himself with people being investigated by the feds for being dumb assholes

I don't know why the press is attached to Christie. I think maybe off-camera they enjoy forwarding and laughing at the same photos of him in that nauseatingly tight baseball uniform as everybody else, so they're trying to keep his campaign afloat for the lolz? Either that or there are still enough reporters stupid enough to believe that his middle-school-bully schtick is "refreshing" and will appeal to voters? Either way, a depressing prospect. But he's not gonna get any farther nationally than Giuliani got.

he's still defensive about The Hug:

http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2015/12/nj_politics_roundup_christie_defends_obama_embrace.html

watch that video