Buttload of Faith: the 2016 Presidential Primary Thread (Pt 2)

The "expectations" game is such a wacky charade of shifting goal-posts. I mean, when Sanders first entered the race, the idea of him even fighting Hillary Clinton to a draw in any state besides his own seemed pretty laughable - like he was basically Kucinich. Gradually it became "well, of course he'll take New Hampshire, sure, that's practically Vermont," and then "well obviously he's got a reasonable shot in Iowa, that's got lots of white liberals too" and now somehow it's like unless he pulls a win there his candidacy will have been proven a failure.

(typed that before Freddy B's post)

It's not a failure! He just won't win.

Dreading a Cruz victory speech; intrigued by a Trump loser speech (especially if he ends up third, although that looks like a longshot halfway there).

I think I'm reading the map wrong, Sanders is indeed ahead in various precincts

prediction markets v confident of cruz and clinton rn
http://predictwise.com/blog/2016/02/iowas-caucus-night/

9:49: Cruz and Clinton both at 85% in IA.

why is des moines county nowhere near des moines?

apparently bc they're both named after the river

BREAKING: Martin O'Malley suspending campaign

xp at the time it was named, it was / was in the southern part of a district along the mississippi that was named for one of the river's tributaries, already named the des moines river.

the city was named about 20 years later, also named for the des moines river (originally as 'fort des moines', which runs diagonally through the state & so manages to hit the center as well as the corner containing the county.

good information thx

betting markets call it for cruz

loool

Dreading a Cruz victory speech

"More than anything, tonight you've sent a powerful message to my daughter"

ugh Marco Rubio

he repulses me more than Trump

Des Moines used to be called something like Fort Raccoon.

Lots of states where counties and cities don't match up.

the raccoon river is the other one at whose confluence w/ the des moines the fort was located

also, iowa city is not in iowa county

ditto Alfred xxp

aaaannnd it's Cruz

and ugh Rubio

Rubio's kind of needlessly apocalyptic and way too earnest, but I don't know, he doesn't bother that me much. (No, I don't live in his state.) (Or country.)

Trump's second-place normally might not be too bad, and assuming he wins NH and SC, it'll probably be forgotten. But maybe there's just this onslaught of backlash out there (media, primarily) lying in wait, thrilled to see him humbled, and that should make for a difficult week or two.

Feel like it opens up a lot of space for the other candidates - takes the Teflon off, all of that. Sort of an "if it bleeds, we can kill it" effect. Brace yourself for zingers at the next debate. "You know Donald, you were talking about polls just now, but we all know polls can be wrong - the polls showed you winning Iowa by a landslide, remember?"

Huckabee "couldn't recapture the magic" (actual quote), taking some time out to look for the magic.

moving forward I don't think Trump will play the underdog card very well, maybe that's wishful thinking though

hilary falling in the markets

I want so badly to hear the audio from the Trump van

Paul Begala: "This is what you want," the woman I've devoted my life to ahead by 0.6% in Iowa. Glad Anderson Cooper called him out on that.

Huckabee: not your huckleberry.

Also, apparently an hour ago Ben Carson let it be known that he was going home to Florida, not to New Hampshire, but then speedily issued the explanation that he was just going there to get some clean clothes. I assume everybody else has already seen this, but it strikes me as one of the most important events of the night and well worth recording here.

ugh Marco Rubio speech

Marco Rubio is the least interesting man in the world.

marco rubio looks like fuckin scott wolf wow

Wow. I don't think I've ever heard an angrier and more mendacious victory speech.

what a weiner, i mean i know u dont think he's got the juice, alfred, but isnt he the gop's best shot?

dear lord this speech, i dont fear him that much bc he just looks like a slick college republican

Mark Harris ‏@MarkHarrisNYC 4m4 minutes ago Manhattan, NY

Rubio: "So this is the moment they said would never happen!"

Dude, they said you'd finish third and you finished third.

what a weiner, i mean i know u dont think he's got the juice, alfred, but isnt he the gop's best shot?

― get a long, little doggy (m bison)

at shooting themselves in the balls?

I do count this as more proof that nobody knows anything this year: wasn't Charles Pierce mocking the "Rubio surge" the other day?

the county-by-county breakdowns are pretty interesting. there's a bunch where trump is 3rd, behind either cruz or rubio. in some counties (maybe ones he managed to appear in?) he finishes strong first, but in plenty, rubio handily beats him. if Trump ends the night 3rd overall I will laugh for weeks

Looking forward to Trump as underdog, but I'm done saying things like "this will be the moment where it all unravels!"

Clinton now down below 50%. With 86% of precincts in: Clinton 49.9, Sanders 49.5, O'Malley 0.6. Looks like it might be a photo finish.

Interesting to hear what Rubio's advisors think is a winning message. He's apparently going to win over 'people struggling paycheck to paycheck and crushed under student debt' to the conservative movement, but doesn't give even a hint of what he would do for those people, besides a lot of patriotic hand waving.

I said a long time ago that Trump wouldn't win a single state. I still feel pretty good about that, despite what his recent NH numbers have been.

rubio sounds like he's auditioning for the role of president in a local playhouse adaptation of "independence day"

someone on 538 pointed out that districts that are thought to be more clinton-friendly have proportionally more to report than bernie strongholds. but since he's said that bernie's closed the gap further, so idk

Rubio seems like a real goober, and also just seems to be going on and on. But I don't know how much of the problem is that the backdrop behind him makes him seem like he's at the annual corporate dinner where they announce the biggest sellers for each fiscal quarter.

I can hear Chris Matthews jerking off furiously over this Rubio speech.

Did Bush or Christie get anything tonight? Were they shut out? Haven't heard their names all night.

there's no feeling behind Rubio's words. I get a sense of hollowness from him unmatched by any other candidate.

lol Trump obv told by handlers that he must show Christian charity

re: Bush/Christie - Both down at 2%. Christie at least has the excuse that his eyes have been only on New Hampshire for quite a while. Oh mannnn here's Trump.

i'm sorry i love this man

During Critical Campaign Period, Ben Carson Heads Home To Get Fresh Clothes