I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

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I don't think Bern is being nominated either, but NY isn't until April 19, and i don't see him dropping out before then.

we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 17:41 (eight years ago) link

https://media.giphy.com/media/AJmXWUFsZgnPW/giphy.gif

bern b bag (crüt), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 17:42 (eight years ago) link

well i'll be, good analysis from matt yglesias

http://www.vox.com/2016/2/2/10892724/bernie-sanders-wake-up-call

Democratic leaders aren't as smart as they think

The Clinton campaign's strategy will, of course, be second-guessed as stumbling frontrunners always are. But the larger problem is the way that party as a whole — elected officials, operatives, leaders of allied interest groups, major donors, greybeard elder statespersons, etc. — decided to cajole all viable non-Clinton candidates out of the race. This had the effect of making a Clinton victory much more likely than it would have been in a scenario when she was facing off against Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Deval Patrick. But it also means that the only alternative to Clinton is a candidate the party leaders don't regard as viable.

Trying to coordinate your efforts to prevent something crazy from happening is smart — otherwise you might wind up with Donald Trump. But trying to foreclose any kind of meaningful contact with the voters or debate about party priorities, strategy, and direction was arrogant and based on a level of self-confidence about Democratic leaders' political judgment that does not seem borne out by the evidence. This is a party that has no viable plan for winning the House of Representatives, that's been pushed to a historic low point in terms of state legislative seats, and that somehow lost the governor mansions in New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Illinois.

It's a party, in other words, that was clearly in need of some dialogue, debate, and contestation over what went wrong and how to fix it. But instead of encouraging such a dialogue, the party tried to cut it off. That leaves them with Sanders's Political Revolution theory. It doesn't seem very plausible to me, but at least it's something.

goole, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 17:43 (eight years ago) link

so gonna happen...

http://www.hindustantimes.com/Images/popup/2015/4/clinton.jpg

scott seward, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 17:45 (eight years ago) link

huh, i didn't see that shaun king had endorsed sanders. that seems like it could mean something

k3vin k., Tuesday, 2 February 2016 17:52 (eight years ago) link

ok lol at the thread title. my suggestion was meant in jest ftr.

Super Tuesday is basically intended to arrest any New England liberals getting too far along in the process. so yeah not so surprising that it looks like a rough day for sanders. massachusetts, minnesota, colorado and lol vermont do all seem do-able though not without a fight in most. it's the next couple weeks after that where he could actually soak up some delegates, so long as he still looks like a real, fighting candidate:

MARCH 5 - Louisiana, Nebraska, Kansas
MARCH 6 - Maine
MARCH 8 - Mississippi, Michigan
MARCH 15 - Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio

as previously noted, i think the effective tie in iowa helps him more than hurts him in this regard, he just has to be able to shrug off a week or so of bad news. he has the money to keep campaigning, and since his mission is to force his issues into the conversation, he has every incentive to stay in and keep churning up delegates even in states he can't win. even if the national media basically tune him out, each state that he campaigns in extensively (ad buys, public appearances, etc.) is subject to an overton window shift of some kind. people whose first voting experience is voting for the democratic socialist are going to have to see the range of possibilities a little differently.

i know i sound like a broken record on these themes, but i really think this is the more interesting story in this election, since the horse-race stuff (on the dem side) is a foregone conclusion bar the details. may i remind you that a self-proclaimed socialist just tied in a nominating contest in the corn-fed heartland of america! saying "oh yeah sure but iowa is full of white liberals" is leaving out too much detail imho - exactly what does "liberal" mean, what kind of things are on the table... i mean generally "liberal" in america has come to mean a pretty short list of MOR civil-rights positions and not being aligned with the real corporate scumbags, not necessarily "fuck it, let's just go back to taxing the rich to pay for needed services and an expanded welfare state." it could be that some core things are shifting under the radar. i dunno. this isn't really fully formulated, sorry.

the thirteenth floorior (Doctor Casino), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 17:55 (eight years ago) link

("week or so of bad news" referring to super tuesday results, not iowa)

the thirteenth floorior (Doctor Casino), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 17:56 (eight years ago) link

feel like it's important to bear in mind that at some point the math of "[candidate] needs to win x number of delegates in upcoming contests to win the nomination" becomes more and more critical. And once one candidate starts to outpace the others and the likelihood of the remaining candidates racking up the necessary number of delegates in the remaining contests diminishes, things start to look like a foregone conclusion pretty quick.

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:03 (eight years ago) link

another critical factor that hasn't yet gotten the thinkpiece it deserves:

chants of "BER-NIE! BER-NIE! BER-NIE! BER-NIE!" are inherently more exciting and easier to join than "HIL-LA-RY! HIL-LA-RY!" or "CLIN-TON! CLIN-TON!"

Karl Malone, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:07 (eight years ago) link

xpost Juvenile and yet so beautiful.

Chortles And Guffaws (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:08 (eight years ago) link

who is Shaun King?

we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:08 (eight years ago) link

Retired surgeon Ben Carson, who was polling strong a few months ago, headed for home to Florida after finishing in fourth place with 9 percent of the vote. In a bizarre message, his campaign said he wasn’t suspending his campaign but just that “Dr. Carson needs to go home and get a fresh set of clothes.”

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:09 (eight years ago) link

xp: Civil rights guy who sorta came to prominence in the wake of the Michael Brown shooting.

how's life, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:12 (eight years ago) link

ok, i read a NYT Mag profile of him about a year ago but forgot his name.

Lindsey Lindskog
‏@lollipopxlindz
Did @HillaryClinton just take notes on everything @BernieSanders has been saying, paraphrase it, and pass it off as her speech? #IowaCaucus

Matt Taibbi
‏@mtaibbi
Yes. It's the politics version of the movie "Species."

we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:14 (eight years ago) link

Shaun King is an activist loosely affiliated with Black Lives Matters who has started becoming famous for being light-skinned enough that some of his detractors have claimed he's pulling a Rachel Dolezal, raising funds for charities aimed at improving the lives of black people that seem to dissipate after the fundraising effort completes and getting denounced by other Black Lives Matters activists on Twitter.

its subtle brume (DJP), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:14 (eight years ago) link

http://i.imgur.com/e2GdYPW.png

luv 2 gamble

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:19 (eight years ago) link

lmao predictorbros are so panicky

goole, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:22 (eight years ago) link

if it turns out that yes, one early narrow loss is enough to deflate or derail the whole trump phenomenon it'll be so weird. strangely encouraging and disheartening at once

goole, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:23 (eight years ago) link

it's Short Attention Span Punditry

we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:25 (eight years ago) link

i think part of trump's brand is his power and losing to ted cruz even if it's not a surprise makes him look vulnerable, which is probably the worst thing he can appear to be.

nomar, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:25 (eight years ago) link

I could almost see a butthurt Trump just taking his ball and going home.

Chortles And Guffaws (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:26 (eight years ago) link

"I thought you wanted me to be president, but I guess you're all just a bunch of losers. Maybe I'll sue you. I dunno."

Chortles And Guffaws (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:26 (eight years ago) link

I think he had more on the line than anyone with Iowa since his whole campaign narrative was 'everyone loves me, I'm number one, look at the polls' etc etc

iatee, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:27 (eight years ago) link

one early narrow loss is enough to deflate or derail the whole trump phenomenon it'll be so weird.

he seems well positioned to win NH, unless he's committed the same predictable error there as he did in Iowa (ie hoping his media exposure will make up for not having a ground game that turns out actual votes). If he happens to lose NH it's gonna get pretty ugly for him.

xp

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:27 (eight years ago) link

I could almost see a butthurt Trump just taking his ball and going home.

― Chortles And Guffaws (Old Lunch)

interesting mixed metaphor

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:28 (eight years ago) link

Trump gives every indication of having no respect or interest in the actual mechanics of getting voters to the polls - retail politics, state-level infrastructure, etc. It isn't just about polls and exposure, there's this whole other more grueling, more mechanical process that converts that other stuff into actual votes. If he doesn't get that, he's fucked.

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:30 (eight years ago) link

Why is she licking his hand?

Chortles And Guffaws (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:32 (eight years ago) link

should I make a dirty joke

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:35 (eight years ago) link

btw NYT said last week that Bill has lost the Old Magic on the stump -- meandering, boring, wheezy

we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:37 (eight years ago) link

interesting that Hillary took Des Moines, figured Sanders would've had the advantage there

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:38 (eight years ago) link

I liked how that NYT piece attributed his lack of dynamism to his veganism

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:38 (eight years ago) link

the 2012 convention speech excepted, WJC has been meandering, boring, loud, and self-pitying for years

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:41 (eight years ago) link

if trump loses he's still prob not going anywhere as a populist political figure. he'd actually be in a pretty good spot to start a right-wing media business and god knows he loves putting his name on shit.

iatee, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:41 (eight years ago) link

i.e. a variety show

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:42 (eight years ago) link

Hillary should use something from Tusk for her theme song. "I Know I'm Not Wrong" maybe.

scott seward, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:43 (eight years ago) link

I was gonna say "Walk a Thin Line"

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:44 (eight years ago) link

Bill has lost the Old Magic on the stump

He's just not as motivated as he was when it was his own campaign. Put him in front of a convention crowd and big television audience and he'll be Elvis again.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:46 (eight years ago) link

from goole's quote: "the party as a whole... decided to cajole all viable non-Clinton candidates out of the race. This had the effect of making a Clinton victory much more likely than it would have been in a scenario when she was facing off against Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Deval Patrick."

So are we now supposed to take it as given that Warren, Biden, and Patrick were "cajoled" out of the race (vs. making their own choices for their own reasons)? Isn't that kind of like saying the 1961 Cubs woulda won the World Series, if only they'd signed Mickey Mantle, Roger Maris, and Yogi Berra? FWIW Clinton might also be less likely to defeat Zombie Gandhi as well.

mose allison brie larson (Ye Mad Puffin), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:46 (eight years ago) link

interesting that Hillary took Des Moines, figured Sanders would've had the advantage there

― Οὖτις, Tuesday, February 2, 2016 12:38 PM (7 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

DSM is the Big City but apart from Drake and idk DMACC there aren't any colleges there, just saying

i need to dig up a good results map

goole, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:47 (eight years ago) link

yeah I 100% certain that neither Warren nor Patrick were interested in running for President

its subtle brume (DJP), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:47 (eight years ago) link

i assume anyone over the level of County Assessor wants to run for president; but it didn't take much "cajoling " to not want to run for president against HRC

goole, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:49 (eight years ago) link

but yeah MY looks like he's trading on his status as a clued in DC journo to tell us something about the pre-pre-primary stage there

goole, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:54 (eight years ago) link

MR PRESIDENT WHAT

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/scott-brown-endorsing-trump-new-hampshire

goole, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:55 (eight years ago) link

hats off to Karl for this thread title, it is wonderful lols

tremendous crime wave and killing wave (Joan Crawford Loves Chachi), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:55 (eight years ago) link

so much awkward kissing in iowa...

http://img.huffingtonpost.com/asset/scalefit_550_400_noupscale/55df6f5b1d00002f001461f6.jpeg

scott seward, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:55 (eight years ago) link

ahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

the Scott Brown clown show continues

its subtle brume (DJP), Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:56 (eight years ago) link

take it to the "show me some men who look like old lesbians" thread

xp

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 2 February 2016 18:57 (eight years ago) link

i think the tea party has peaked tbh, so much of their anger was so focused on such a non-existent problem and was so obviously formed because Obama won in 2008

I don't think the tea party was ever a movement, it was just convenient for the media to frame it like one. there are just a lot of crazy people out there. nothing to peak, they're not going away. this kinda reactionary nationalism started bubbling up thanks to dubya. obama was a catalyst but the america love it or leave it tough guy president stuff started post-9/11.

iatee, Monday, 29 February 2016 20:32 (eight years ago) link

I don't doubt that Reagan took seriously ancient Biblical prophecies. He and Nancy also famously consulted astrologers. Probably his personal beliefs were a very Hollywood-esque melange of New Age beliefs and idiosyncratic theology.

o. nate, Monday, 29 February 2016 20:33 (eight years ago) link

Reagan was so Christian that he never went to church

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 29 February 2016 20:33 (eight years ago) link

The tea party was specifically obsessed with the budget though, I thought, and this idea that people who couldn't pay their mortgages should suffer for it. Seems like a very different message than Trump, although I assume it involves many of the same people

Treeship, Monday, 29 February 2016 20:35 (eight years ago) link

Reagan's religious allegiances showed themselves with the Bob Jones shit and hiring James Watt and the cult of lachrymose masculinity that worked at Pentagon and NSC.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 29 February 2016 20:36 (eight years ago) link

a very Hollywood-esque melange of New Age beliefs and idiosyncratic theology.

yeah this is about right afaict. hardly disingenuous tho.

denies the existence of dark matter (difficult listening hour), Monday, 29 February 2016 20:37 (eight years ago) link

Tea Partiers were proportionally drawn more from the wealthier end of the GOP, which would be kind of the opposite of Trump's core demographic. xxp

o. nate, Monday, 29 February 2016 20:37 (eight years ago) link

That describes a lot of American Christianity honestly

Treeship, Monday, 29 February 2016 20:38 (eight years ago) link

Xp to dll.

Should probably get zing so this doesn't keep happening

Treeship, Monday, 29 February 2016 20:39 (eight years ago) link

And yeah, you're right o.nate. The original "tea party" was supposed to be a rebellion of bond traders rebelling against Obama's debt relief program lol

Treeship, Monday, 29 February 2016 20:40 (eight years ago) link

it was Bush's debt relief program when it started

rap is dad (it's a boy!), Monday, 29 February 2016 20:44 (eight years ago) link

this thread is so big it’s crashing my browser, so I took the liberty of starting a new one:

Il Douché and His Discontents: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 4

wizzz! (amateurist), Monday, 29 February 2016 20:45 (eight years ago) link

or bank bail outs or whatever

rap is dad (it's a boy!), Monday, 29 February 2016 20:45 (eight years ago) link

Santelli's rant was about Obama's mortgage relief i thought

Treeship, Monday, 29 February 2016 20:47 (eight years ago) link

I've never heard of him, he was a CNBC anchor?? Wiki says he made some kind of statement on February 19, 2009, and my memory is that Tea Party was in the air well before that

rap is dad (it's a boy!), Monday, 29 February 2016 20:51 (eight years ago) link

I thought thats where the word "tea party" came from, but i am just going off my memories of reading griftopia in 2011

Treeship, Monday, 29 February 2016 20:52 (eight years ago) link

Taxed Enough Already = T.E.A., plus the dudes already had a boner for the Founding Fathers

carry me a laser down the road that i must travel (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 29 February 2016 21:25 (eight years ago) link


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