I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

I was just looking at the 2008 primary wiki and goddamn I had forgotten how long that dragged on. Sanders may have the money, but I don't think he has the same widespread bases of support from the various voter demographics and party insiders that Obama had, his appeal isn't as broad, and Clinton's got to have locked up a lot of the superdelegates even more thoroughly than before. If this goes on as long as the 2008 primary did I'll be surprised.

I had a dim memory of Hillary winning California (which I remembered cuz I refused to vote for her - at least Obama carried my district)

Dead Libyans make poor allies.

clinton did a good job with myanmar. i mean, everything else she did kind of sucked, but props for myanmar, for sure.

anything she did in the middle east doesn't matter to 99% of americans. they don't care what happens there.

i'm trying to think of a place outside the united states that most americans WOULD care about...as far as murder and bloodshed go. Paris, I guess.

I was just looking at the 2008 primary wiki and goddamn I had forgotten how long that dragged on. Sanders may have the money, but I don't think he has the same widespread bases of support from the various voter demographics and party insiders that Obama had, his appeal isn't as broad, and Clinton's got to have locked up a lot of the superdelegates even more thoroughly than before. If this goes on as long as the 2008 primary did I'll be surprised.

― Οὖτις, Wednesday, February 10, 2016 5:54 PM (5 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

This has been a concern for me too. My memory is that Obama was really dividing the party machine -- it wasn't this sort of complete insider vs complete outsider contest, it was more like he was (early) the riskier of two choices that both had some backers within the party establishment.

btw
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html#!

― Οὖτις, Wednesday, February 10, 2016 5:41 PM (20 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Holy shit, I got chills.

― on entre O.K. on sort K.O. (man alive), Wednesday, February 10, 2016 5:46 PM (15 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

And those are pre-NH results.

― on entre O.K. on sort K.O. (man alive), Wednesday, February 10, 2016 5:47 PM (14 minutes ago)

what are we getting chills about?

2008 primary went on through fucking JUNE

xp

let's put it this way, 9 out of 10 americans has no idea what clinton did as secretary of state. which is probably fine by her.

anything she did in the middle east doesn't matter to 99% of americans. they don't care what happens there.

dude ISIS! If you're Christian, they chop your head off. If you're not Christian, they chop your head off. It's like Medieval Times(tm) over there!

it wasn't this sort of complete insider vs complete outsider contest, it was more like he was (early) the riskier of two choices that both had some backers within the party establishment.

yeah this. Obama picked up Ted Kennedy's endorsement!

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/jun/3/russian-fm-sergey-lavrov-failed-reset-was-inventio/

first thing i think of when i think of HRC at state is the 'reset button'

My 'bold' prediction is the dem primary is effectively over after super tuesday

"dude ISIS!"

i'm saying people in general don't care (or even know or have a memory of) what hillary did in the middle east as secretary of state. no more buildings blew up here, that's all they know or care about.

what are we getting chills about?

― k3vin k., Wednesday, February 10, 2016 6:03 PM (5 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Just pretty impressed that Sanders was polling as high as he was in SC as of a couple weeks ago -- that's supposed to be his waterloo or wonderwall or something.

well, that polling still anticipates a clinton blowout - just way less of one. but yes, it is old, pre-Iowa data. I am very, very curious to see whether he's gained any ground. a win remains profoundly, spectacularly unlikely imo.

it'll be interesting to see what comes of the combination of his favorable press from performing well in IA/NH plus endorsements/pseudoendorsements from some prominent AA leaders (ben jealous, TNC, michelle alexander, shaun king). i seriously doubt it's going to be enough to make up a 30-point deficit in 2.5 weeks, but i'm curious to see how close he can make it

My 'bold' prediction is the dem primary is effectively over after super tuesday

this is my guess as well tbh

beyond the white/nonwhite demographic issues though places like SC and just have democrats that are much more conservative. not sure all the liberal endorsements in the world are gonna help much xp

places like SC and NV*

i mean isn't he still like -40 among minorities? polling well among white people will only win you the republican nomination.

Super Tuesday primaries:

Alabama
American Samoa
Arkansas
Colorado
Democrats Abroad
Georgia
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia

can see Sanders picking up Massachusetts, Colorado and maybe Minnesota there but the rest gtfo

i'm thinking he's got vermont too

in contrast to Sanders, one of Obama's biggest assets was that he could pick up states in the South - Sanders doing that seems nigh impossible

oh right, missed Vermont lol

i mean isn't he still like -40 among minorities? polling well among white people will only win you the republican nomination.

― diana krallice (rushomancy), Wednesday, February 10, 2016 6:23 PM (1 minute ago)

there hasn't been a whole lot of recent polling on this. he also btw won the black vote in NH, though i'm not sure you can extrapolate much to southern states

I hear American Samoa is super liberal

xp

he also btw won the black vote in NH

where they make up a whopping 1.5% of the population

SC is almost 30% black

Either of them would eat Sanders for breakfast with demagoguery/dirty tricks. You need someone who's survived the GOP slime machine and knows how to fight fire with fire.

I think this is what's hurting Clinton, actually, the fear campaign, and there have been degrees of it coming from her side for months. It comes off patronizing misdirection. "Yes, yes, of course I'm progressive, but in order to pass a progressive agenda you first have to get elected, and I'm the only one standing between progressive values and the Republicans rolling everything back." People just aren't biting. Not that the GOP won't roll everything back, but that she's someone the only one qualified to protect us all. It also ties in a little bit with her trustworthiness. She sounds like she's selling something, and she is - herself. Her campaign is about her, but her personality can't quite support that sort of charisma-driven politics. IMO.

Of course, she's much better, or at least much more convincing, when she's not on the defensive, but frankly she's almost always on the defensive, because she's always being criticized. Sometimes legitimately, sometimes not, but at this point it's put her in a permanent circle the wagons position, and that circle does not seem to be expanding. Vicious cycle.

right can't draw a whole lot of conclusions from that xxp shaky

Her campaign is about her, but her personality can't quite support that sort of charisma-driven politics

agree w this - she needs a new personality!

she should say some crazy shit, just fly off the handle, maybe cry

Nevada:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_democratic_presidential_caucus-5337.html

weirdly had no polling in January?

Let's be clear: Bill Clinton may have survived the slime machine, but HRC has no record of having done the same. 2000 and 2006 were pro forma Senate races.

Celebs and their candidates:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ca39mLOUkAA9qw7.jpg

dennis rodman and mike tyson being in trump's camp is too perfect

BTW, how do I get the super-offensive original title to disappear from my bookmarks? I've tried removing bookmark and re-adding, but no dice.

haha that's on my bookmark as well, iirc there is no fix

suck it, losers

it's how Trump would want it

http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/ad38087bac/donald-trump-art-of-the-deal-movie?_cc=__d___&_ccid=ab1558a34ae1328d

Let's be clear: Bill Clinton may have survived the slime machine, but HRC has no record of having done the same. 2000 and 2006 were pro forma Senate races.

the standards (or non-standards) applied to HRC here are crazy. she's been slimed endlessly, managed to be the D's second choice in 2008 and is the frontrunner now. that is some record of survival.

"Οὖτις
Posted: February 10, 2016 at 5:24:09 PM
can see Sanders picking up Massachusetts, Colorado and maybe Minnesota there but the rest gtfo"
Minnesota is a sure thing for Sanders, no question

that is some record of survival

if you mean she didn't get caught doing something that forced her to resign, okay. she hasn't won any tough elections.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/02/10/congressional-black-caucus-to-formally-endorse-clinton-on-thursday/

lol @ patronizing shit about the "younger generation" though, that always plays well

nonetheless, I'd bet there's more old black primary voters than young black primary voters, both in SC and in general

f you mean she didn't get caught doing something that forced her to resign, okay. she hasn't won any tough elections.

we were taking about crimes? thought the discussion was about slime?

running for the senate in New York is a walk in the park/getting confirmed as BHO's SoS is a breeze, get back to me when you've really accomplished something?