I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

(and he has proved even worse at running for president)

https://www.ted.com/talks/jennifer_8_lee_looks_for_general_tso
yeah, i know ted talk but still

whoops wrong thread

nah cuz Biden is chicken

this is excellent, and (believe it or not) articulates some of the feelings i've been having about clinton, her possible redemption, and me trying to talk myself into not disliking her as much

A friend's mom got super pissy on Facebook because I responded to something about Clinton saying that she could never earn my vote because any politician who voted to invade Iraq is dead to me.
I don't think it's that insane, particularly in a solid one-party state, to draw that line in the sand.

― Kiarostami bag (milo z), Friday, February 12, 2016 1:15 PM (19 minutes ago)

oh don't get me wrong, i would never vote for her. i just...would like to be pleasantly surprised

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/nevada-democratic/

first poll out of nevada looks good for bernie

that is crazy

a huge swing in just a month!

if clinton had spent the last decade demonstrating that she'd learned something from the iraq debacle instead of lobbying for "tough" responses to every single foreign policy issue, i might consider supporting her

i'm reading the poll now. ~1200 registered voters, 2/3 of them are 45+. even split for bernie/hillary. no data on race though

wowwwwww.

it's one poll, though, and a caucus state, so let's not get too carried away. (also, 538's model - smartly - devalues polls as they get old, so one brand-new one, after a lonnng drought, gets a ton of emphasis in the model. the model is presumably not really designed for situations where everybody stops polling for a long while. presumably in the next few days a bunch more data will be coming in.)

hillary's campaign manager is from nevada, and he delivered it last year. I don't put much stock in bernie's odds there. its also a stupid caucus.

Hillary won a caucus in Nevada last year?

Hillary just published a very pro-union column on...medium? This is odd on multiple levels, including her description of herself as
"Wife, mom, grandma, women+kids advocate, FLOTUS, Senator, SecState, hair icon, pantsuit aficionado, 2016 presidential candidate."

https://medium.com/@HillaryClinton/organizing-to-raise-wages-f7ee4ec2ee0b#.8f6cf2who

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/nevada-democratic/

first poll out of nevada looks good for bernie

― k3vin k., Friday, February 12, 2016 1:47 PM (8 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

ok holy shit. This is a glitch in the matrix or something.

Rubio has moved to the "Message: I care" phase of his programming.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/talking-to-marco-rubio-a-scripted-candidate-suddenly-gets-chatty/2016/02/12/2bd9d0e4-d10a-11e5-88cd-753e80cd29ad_story.html

Hillary won a caucus in Nevada last year?

― Οὖτις, Friday, February 12, 2016 6:54 PM (6 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/02/hillary-clinton-nevada-caucus-robby-mook-emmy-ruiz

yeah I dont remember either, but it happened!

ok holy shit. This is a glitch in the matrix or something.

or... people are finding out who Sanders is and the combined poles of appealing platform/not a Clinton/is a white man are helping him gain enormous ground

hillary's campaign manager is from nevada, and he delivered it last year. I don't put much stock in bernie's odds there. its also a stupid caucus.

I don't think I put much stock in the performance of Hilary's campaign manager with a different candidate in a different election with a different opponent, either!

my mom just told me she doesn't like anybody. she wants obama for another four years. she says she can understand him.

lol @ "mook mafia"

sup

hey bro can you fix some caucus results for me

i'm with dan on this; it's weird that people are freaking out that an old white male democrat with a youth movement behind him might be an insurgent candidate against an entrenched woman with decades of rancor against her. Of course he is!

well, it's just against the backdrop of a lot of conventional wisdom, going back months and endlessly pundit-repeated, that okay sure those first two states might go okay for him but after that he's really gonna hit a wall. if this poll proves not to be an outlier, it would signal a meaningful shift in that narrative - that, while everybody's been repeating it, bernie has been doing something with those groups of people where he was supposedly dead on arrival - and that would be startling. but we don't know enough yet.

yeah that doesn't really hold up considering no one actually saw this coming

xp

this reminds me of the time that everyone knew that donald trump would flame out any second now

I heard it's supposed to happen today for sure.

my mom just told me she doesn't like anybody. she wants obama for another four years. she says she can understand him.

same

i wonder who the other karl malone supports

ppl keep saying that bernie is just like every other left-wing challenger in every other election, but i don't really think that's true anymore. i can't think of a political figure as progressive as him in my lifetime who was getting this much national attention for months on end. even if he doesn't win, this is something new.

Trump flames out March 1 (j/k)

what do you mean the "other" karl malone?

TRUMP 2016

https://media4.giphy.com/media/VhlwhDZA6U04E/200.gif

comment on the "it's not over" youtube (which is incredibly powerful btw; i cried):

In a post on Erica Garner's website, she stated she and her team had full creative control of the video: "The senator didn't reach out to me all of a sudden because he needs help with Black people," she wrote. "He didn't put out a press conference announcing that we would be working together. He didn't force me to frame my support of him around a subject matter that special interest groups that support him can get behind."

Circa six months ago I literally thought #feelthebern was some kind of dumb internet joke like Notorious RBG. You cannot possibly tell me this was predictable. And if it was just about white guyness and Hillary hate then Martin O'Malley would have been a contender.

There is a reason why I listed "appealing platform" first, guys

(just mentally insert "defensive white" in there if you like)

as inspiring as this is, and as much as my admiration for the sanders campaign has gone up, i keep thinking about a general election where the spectre of "urban crime" and the accusation that bernie "hates the police" are raised over and over again by whoever is the GOP nominee. sort of 1968 all over again.

Yeah I mean things happen for reasons, so once they happen you can see the reasons. It's still pretty striking. I'm surprised at how much he connects with people outside the kind of upper middle class liberal circles that supported guys like Dean. When he first started to surge I thought that (and the college vote) was p much where most of his support would start and end, but IDK, he's got something.

xp I can think of many reasons to be concerned in a general election, it's just that I've never seen an election like this with such a weird and (probably) weak GOP field and a lefty candidate at the same time. I wonder if people said that about Nixon/McGovern -- was Nixon a big surprise?

Eh fuck it -- let's keep OBama in the Oval Office another four years.

Nixon was still popular even without rigging his election.

we have had some demographic shifts since 1968, we'll see exactly what that means in electoral scaremongering terms

xpost

if clinton had spent the last decade demonstrating that she'd learned something from the iraq debacle

How about if Clinton had spent the last 8 years demonstrating that she'd learned something from her 2008 run?

once McGovern made his acceptance speech at 3a.m. and then waffled on jettisoning the veep nominee over his psychiatric history, it was p clear he was gonna get stomped. (it was likely in the first place)

we have had some demographic shifts since 1968, we'll see exactly what that means in electoral scaremongering terms

yeah, it'll be interesting. and nobody who is coming near the GOP nomination has anything like the insider support or sheer staying power of dick nixon. but still, i worry that all the stuff that bernie is (honorably!) doing to distinguish himself from clinton would be fodder for an incredibly, disgustingly reactionary GOP general-election campaign like we've never seen. (of course, i still don't think sanders will get the nom, but we're in the realm of what-ifs.)

sadly, i can easily see bernie making some mcgovern-like mistakes.

I can see a lot of centrist Democrats bailing on the election & not voting if Bernie is the nominee. Seems more likely than Bernie supporters bailing on Clinton tbh.

He would never accept Clinton as a veep.

Centrist Dems who bail are not Democrats. They are morons.