I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

oh that clarifies it! thanks for your erudition

keith ellison in versailles, last year

https://twitter.com/keithellison/status/702863536616157184

if hispanic conservative gop nominees don't call out trump on immigration, then they think it's a non-issue created by the democrats, a party that they feel disenfranchised by on matters of immigration.

right because democrats have been campaigning on building a goddamn wall to keep out the rapists and murders

trump has proudly made this an issue, has put it front and center in his campaign. why would hispanics think trump's outspoken thoughts about immigration are a made up non-issue by the democrats?

Because the other GOP candidates don't talk about it? I didn't follow infinity's logic either

yeah, wondering what people thinking that trump couldn't make it this far were actually paying attention to or reading. maybe they just sought confirmation bias (on twitter)

xps

with regard to how hispanics vote, they have mostly always voted democrat, right?

yes, but increasingly so.

--1980 Jimmy Carter, 56% Ronald Reagan, 35% +21

--1984 Walter Mondale, 61% Ronald Reagan, 37% +24

--1988 Michael Dukakis, 69% George H.W. Bush, 30% +39

--1992 Bill Clinton, 61% George H.W. Bush, 25% +36

--1996 Bill Clinton, 72% Bob Dole, 21% +51

--2000 Al Gore, 62% George W. Bush, 35% +27

--2004 John Kerry, 58% George W. Bush, 40% +18

--2008 Barack Obama, 67% John McCain, 31% +36

--2012 Barack Obama, 71% Mitt Romney, 27% +44

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/features/2016-02-24/behind-bernie-sanders-revolution-lies-a-meticulously-engineered-grassroots-network

Somewhat fascinating piece on the intricate organizing network behind Sanders' campaign (although I wish it was a little better written/explained).

GWB the main exception obv, though he still lost them

Because the other GOP candidates don't talk about it? I didn't follow infinity's logic either

― Karl Malone, Thursday, February 25, 2016 4:11 PM (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yea the GOP candidates don't want to talk about it bc they risk losing any of the racist white voters who aren't already trump fans

yeah, wondering what people thinking that trump couldn't make it this far were actually paying attention to or reading. maybe they just sought confirmation bias (on twitter)

I think they were assuming that his horse-ass-itude would cause him to flame out the way some semi-similar crazies did the previous election cycle. Or he'd get bored and quit.

trump can be beaten:

https://youtu.be/k8TwRmX6zs4

― goole, Thursday, February 25, 2016 3:52 PM (23 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this is such a great video

right because democrats have been campaigning on building a goddamn wall to keep out the rapists and murders

― marcos, Thursday, February 25, 2016 9:08 PM (5 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

are you suggesting that all (legal) hispanic immigrants are opposed to building a wall?

i would suspect that most are, yea

sure, not all. there are also what 10% of african americans who are republican? it happens

i think most people who figured trump would have failed by now perhaps didn't foresee this many candidates staying in the race so late? that has played a big role in trump's success in the primaries. the general is a whole other thing and trump simply just doesn't have the demographics to do it. romney got what 59, 60% of the white vote in 2012 but he still lost by 4 points. i can't see trump improving romney's 27% rate w/ hispanics, it won't happen

obama dropping the mufasa held up to the sun clip as his "birth video" is rad

i would suspect that most are, yea

― marcos, Thursday, February 25, 2016 4:21 PM

I've got a couple aunts who would love to meet you.

another part of trump's success is that the other GOP candidates are terrified of attacking him and have done a piss-poor job whenever they have

nobody has really done what obama did in that white house correspondents video, which is to immediately shred any notion suggesting he should be taken seriously as a presidential candidate

The media as a whole refused to take him seriously until they were finally forced to by his stubbornly high poll numbers. I don't think refusing to take him seriously is an option at this point.

marcos

sorry, there is a minority of hispanic voters that vote republican and i'm quickly becoming fascinated by their impetus to do so. i don't believe what you are saying is accurate, given my experiences with talking to some of the hispanic community in los angeles

There is traditionally seen to be a difference between Cuban-Americans (historically conservative in USian terms) and other Latinos/Hispanics (historically liberal in USian terms).

Many Cuban exiles have tended to align with the American right wing because of its perceived staunch anti-communism (understandably!). At least some of those were displaced elites from pre-Castro Cuba - some of whom arrived not by overstaying a visa, swimming across a river, or jumping a fence with $5 and a head full of dreams, but rather on a chartered plane with a suitcase full of gold bullion.

Now: it is totally not my place to define who is and who isn't entitled to be considered Hispanic, or what is or isn't the correct way to be an immigrant. But different groups have had different experiences (on a group level) and that may help explain some of the the differences in those populations' political development over the past several decades.

Or maybe I'm just excessively influenced by Joan Didion's Miami, which I read 20 years ago and which isn't very helpful any more.

or you can ask me

I'm acquainted with a handful of Hispanic GOP voters, and their reasoning is in line with anyone else in the party (immigration, guns, taxes, faith etc.).

Cubans are the beneficiaries of the most generous integration package in American history. Thanks to the Cuban Adjustment Act, any Cuban whose feet touch American soil qualifies for federal aid and can become a permanent resident a year and a day after arrival. Many like to think they succeeded on their own, and while it's true that men like my grandfather went from being an administrator in the Royal Bank of Canada to selling ties on Eighth Street, they bought homes at low interest rates, received food stamps, and small business loans. They succeeded through their own initiative and because the federal government was committed to making them succeed, a fact that devastated the newly empowered African American community in post-Jim Crow Miami.

Yeah or what Lord Alfred said.

(Just wish to underscore that that preferential treatment was 100% a salvo in the Cold War; it was not because Cuban emigres were more awesome than persons coming from Mexico, the DR, etc.)

anyway traditionally we go by shirt color iirc.

― denies the existence of dark matter (difficult listening hour)

with Trump they'd be Orange-shirts, rite?

the Orange Hundreds

http://www.billjamesonline.com/trump_as_in_rump/

hispanics find it easier to align themselves with conservatives when they see hispanics running for the gop nomination; cruz, rubio, etc

wrong

― Οὖτις,

surprisingly, Mexican-Americans are not that enthused by Cuban-Canadians...

would have preferred some stats tbh xpost

Trump, As In Rump Let me begin by telling you, if the title does not make this clear enough, what I think about Donald Trump.

he's going to gain control of the republican party while the old elite break away to form a forlorn new one?

I was going to post some James excerpts the other day. He's somewhat erratic politically, so if anything, I'm relieved he's not supporting Trump.

"The most zombies ever"

I was going to post some James excerpts the other day.

haha i was amazed that you didn't

I refuse to read that entire Bill James post until he adds some paragraph breaks. But I did read far enough to see it turns into an anti-political-correctness rant at some point.

also pro-torture

i think most people who figured trump would have failed by now perhaps didn't foresee this many candidates staying in the race so late? that has played a big role in trump's success in the primaries. the general is a whole other thing and trump simply just doesn't have the demographics to do it. romney got what 59, 60% of the white vote in 2012 but he still lost by 4 points. i can't see trump improving romney's 27% rate w/ hispanics, it won't happen

― marcos, Thursday, February 25, 2016 4:22 PM (59 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

100% this. If just a couple more had quit earlier I think Rubio would have won a primary by now. It's especially weird to me that Carson hasn't dropped out.

NYT editorial calls on Clinton to release $peech transcripts

trump being the front-runner gives them all reason to stick around, as long as they all stuck around because he's the front-runner

no real explanation for carson still being there, but there's no explanation for him running to begin with so I guess he just hasn't run out of money

err " as long as they all stuck around because he's the front-runner" should be "and they all stuck around because he's the front-runner"

err clearly not writing anything coherent today

"trump being the front-runner gives them all reason to stick around
+ he's the front-runner because they stick around"

http://i.imgur.com/Sulr8xd.png

cunning plan exposed

rump being the front-runner gives them all reason to stick around, as long as they all stuck around because he's the front-runner

no real explanation for carson still being there, but there's no explanation for him running to begin with so I guess he just hasn't run out of money

― iatee, Thursday, February 25, 2016 5:35 PM (5 minutes ago)

classic prisoner's dilemma

carson is still a profitable enterprise for a lot of people

not least for Ben Carson

tho probably not most

he kinda reminds me of Brian Wilson

separating those twins was his pet sounds

The presidential race is his playing in a giant sandbox while he's completely out of his mind.