I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

lol the media veering wildly from trump is week trump cant win to trump is the next president

― lag∞n, Friday, February 26, 2016 1:30 PM (19 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

betting markets stable. nothing has changed. they should settle down.

http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner

in a 2 horse race a lead like this at this early stage is enormous btw

BAAAAHAHAHAHAHA I was so wrong
http://www.vox.com/2016/2/26/11120530/chris-christie-endorses-donald-trump

if bernies nominated who knows what the fuck will happen bernie v trump is some serious alternate reality shit, but that looks like a long shot

bernie is not going to be nominated, he's pretty much done after next tuesday

ya

betting markets stable. nothing has changed. they should settle down.

there's really no reason why this market should be super stable while the 'trump wins or not' one is super chaotic. (like the real reason is nobody cares about this market, but because of that it's not that useful.)

it is kind of bonkers how many of my friends wholeheartedly believe "bernie is the only chance we have of winning this election" , wildly overestimating both trump & bernie's appeal

bernie fans r such awful smug meme posting blowhards on facebook my lord ppl youre not helping yr cause

bernie is not going to win, but super tuesday is not necessarily going to deal him his death blow. there are plenty of states after next tuesday that bernie should do much better in, although the question is probably how close he keeps some of the races on tuesday. if he gets smoked, as it looks like he might, that could hurt his fundraising efforts and bring him a lot of bad PR

https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xlt1/v/t1.0-9/12742411_970587466368829_7296561313602506701_n.jpg

i cannot get out of my head the line about how bernie is a left-wing fb meme come to life

bernie fans r such awful smug meme posting blowhards on facebook my lord ppl youre not helping yr cause

― lag∞n, Friday, February 26, 2016 1:59 PM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

^^

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcKJ4yUUUAE8pTv.jpg

this really does look like a guy who knows he just sold his soul

lol check out this shit someone posted yesterday

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcHqT4bUEAAvQV_.jpg

like they just put a saying they liked over a picture of bernie lol

Ross Douthat ✔ ‎@DouthatNYT
I am glad you are here with me, Samwise: Here, at the end of all things.

I lol'ed

bernie fans r such awful smug meme posting blowhards on facebook my lord ppl youre not helping yr cause

― lag∞n, Friday, February 26, 2016 1:59 PM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yeah it is fucking abominable. there are hillary versions of this too though & they can be just as awful

bernie fans r such awful smug meme posting blowhards on facebook my lord ppl youre not helping yr cause

― lag∞n, Friday, February 26, 2016 1:59 PM (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i'm definitely one of these ppl. sorry

nobody even likes his policies they just want the president to be sufficiently memeable. inevitable consequences of letting millenials vote. xp

yeah it is fucking abominable. there are hillary versions of this too though & they can be just as awful

― crüt, Friday, February 26, 2016 2:05 PM (18 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i just figured no one likes hillary enough to meme her

Ross Douthat ✔ ‎@DouthatNYT
I am glad you are here with me, Samwise: Here, at the end of all things.

I lol'ed

bhahahahahahaa

Douchehat is terrible but quality zing

i'm definitely one of these ppl. sorry

― spirited ai weiwei (Treeship), Friday, February 26, 2016 2:05 PM (34 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

aw treesh i forgive u lol

ok maybe they're not nearly as bad w/the memes, but they're as bad with the conspiracy theories & accusations of nefarious motives

iatee, where is the "trump vs anyone else for presidency" market? i haven't seen that one. or do you mean the GOP nomination market?

yeah

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/703293106490224640

Trump throws water around stage, physically mocks Rubio, tosses away water bottle

you can calculate 'trump vs anyone else' from the probabilities, no?

the GOP nomination market being crazy while the GOP vs DEM presidency market being stable could just as easily mean that it doesn't matter who the GOP nominate.

ok maybe they're not nearly as bad w/the memes, but they're as bad with the conspiracy theories & accusations of nefarious motives

― crüt, Friday, February 26, 2016 2:07 PM (48 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i guess theres def some hillary voters on my feed but just no full on hillary fans, or at least not ones who want to deal w interacting with the bernieariat

xp yes but predictwise (which has a shitty website/interface) doesn't give the history of the right probabilities

https://twitter.com/SteveKopack/status/703293193337577473/photo/1

'it doesn't matter who the gop nominates' seems like a much more controversial statement than 'nobody really cares to spend money in the gop vs dem betting market right now so it's not a very useful source of information'

you do this calculation but with republicans and trump

http://www.separatinghyperplanes.com/2015/10/some-quick-electoral-prediction-math.html

no debate mashups for lunch... CNN was running a live DT stump speech in its entirety. bcz they're all so different.

feel like u have an osha complaint on yr hands

'it doesn't matter who the gop nominates' seems like a much more controversial statement than 'nobody really cares to spend money in the gop vs dem betting market right now so it's not a very useful source of information'

― iatee, Friday, February 26, 2016 2:12 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

knowing who the gop nominates doesn't allow the market to make better predictions about the outcome of the election. it's in that sense it "doesn't matter"

i'm not saying the real odds are 61/39 or whatever they are. i'm saying they are stable because nothing has changed.

so the "woe is us" stuff this week has been crazy

or at least not based on new news

bernie fans r such awful smug meme posting blowhards

will you... stop... stop... STOP evaluating your last chance to not see the fucking Waterworld in your lifetime by extrapolating everything from DICKS ON THE INTERNETZ? ty

knowing who the gop nominates allows the market to make massively better predictions about the outcome of the election!

the revolution is so happening
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/sanderss-candidates-for-congress-an-snl-alum-a-hay-farmer-and-a-guy-with-a-bernie-tattoo/2016/02/26/6e44bd7c-da4c-11e5-81ae-7491b9b9e7df_story.html

will you... stop... stop... STOP evaluating your last chance to not see the fucking Waterworld in your lifetime by extrapolating everything from DICKS ON THE INTERNETZ? ty

― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Friday, February 26, 2016 2:16 PM (38 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

jeez i didnt say i was evaluating bernie based on that morbs

haha shout out to Fetterman xpost

He said it would be great if liberals could ride Sanders’s coattails into Congress. But it is not Sanders’s job to get them there. “I don’t think he can go and buy them coats,” Chamberlain said.

lol

morbs intense distaste for that movie has actually been fueling his politics for decades now

not a great film tbf

the next president will not have the power to stop 'the fucking Waterworld' even if they want to

GARY KROEGER IS RUNNING FOR CONGRESS???

knowing who the gop nominates allows the market to make massively better predictions about the outcome of the election!

― iatee, Friday, February 26, 2016 2:16 PM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

if the market is confident that the none of the GOP candidates would beat hilary then not really

also if we're getting a Waterworld anyway, I think we should be allowed to fuck in it