I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

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Meantime in right wing swamp fever land:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/02/breaking-christie-endorses-trump.php

I spoke with a prominent person in Washington just now—a name you’d recognize—who told me he thinks the Obama administration is behind this, with a threat to Christie that he’d be prosecuted for “Bridgegate” unless he endorsed Trump.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 26 February 2016 20:26 (eight years ago) link

compared to real markets, yeah I think there's almost no one betting.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/09/23/one-big-trader-lost-millions-betting-on-romney-study-finds

iatee, Friday, 26 February 2016 20:26 (eight years ago) link

lmao nice xp

lag∞n, Friday, 26 February 2016 20:27 (eight years ago) link

now we know what Bachmann has been up to

its subtle brume (DJP), Friday, 26 February 2016 20:28 (eight years ago) link

i dont really get the rubio is a water bottle joke

spirited ai weiwei (Treeship), Friday, 26 February 2016 20:28 (eight years ago) link

hes sweaty

lag∞n, Friday, 26 February 2016 20:29 (eight years ago) link

Rubio is not a water bottle, he is a robot. Get it straight.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 26 February 2016 20:29 (eight years ago) link

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19ZxJVnM5Gs

its subtle brume (DJP), Friday, 26 February 2016 20:29 (eight years ago) link

he is gonna fry his own circuits on stage one day

iatee, Friday, 26 February 2016 20:29 (eight years ago) link

couldn't they build him some kind of internal cooling system or something?

Check Yr Scrobbles (Moodles), Friday, 26 February 2016 20:31 (eight years ago) link

maybe the shiller thing applies to prediction markets? like, in a good forecast/rational market the noisier the underlying thing being forecasted the less volatile the more stable the forecast (ie weather forecasts reverting to historical means far out) but in irl financial markets it's the opposite, forecasts of noisy things are more volatile, noise traders follow the random movements and smart money has to move against them to take the arbitrage opportunity.

flopson, Friday, 26 February 2016 20:33 (eight years ago) link

haha the rubio water-break thing from the SOTU response is so great

marcos, Friday, 26 February 2016 20:36 (eight years ago) link

if someone lost _millions_ shifting the market a few % like that in 2012 (i also bet against that person on intrade lol good times) then the market is by defn active enough that it takes millions to shift it.

in any case no activity at all on the 2016 outcome market for the past couple of months seems pretty far fetched.

and if it's _at all_ active then the only explanation for stability like you see in the current GOP vs dem market is that it's active enough to maintain stability. small markets have wild shifts on individual trades.

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 26 February 2016 20:36 (eight years ago) link

"a name you'd recognize" is grebt. Could be John or Bob or Mary! I recognize those names. Lots of people have them

rock me, I'm a deist (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, 26 February 2016 20:38 (eight years ago) link

I keep trying to bookmark this thread and it doesn't work -- like Rubio trying to keep from reaching for a water bottle

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 26 February 2016 20:40 (eight years ago) link

I think people are making smaller bets on the gop vs dem market partly because it's less fun than betting on candidates. if you read that wsj article - most people are betting on candidates they favored, and sticking with them. that's very much hearts not heads.

also this is just my guess, but I think 60% operates as some sort of mental ceiling for how much people want to think about a race where one of the parties is actually wildly favored. but I don't think the fact that it hovers around a round number is a coincidence.

iatee, Friday, 26 February 2016 20:45 (eight years ago) link

Here's my question: How many of Donald Trump's insane ideas do people in this thread a) think he'll remember by the time he takes office - it's not like he's writing this shit down, after all, and b) think he can get through Congress?

the top man in the language department (誤訳侮辱), Friday, 26 February 2016 20:48 (eight years ago) link

http://i.imgur.com/ZDrVeSr.png

gr8080, Friday, 26 February 2016 20:49 (eight years ago) link

ah i get the significance of yr 60% point. interesting (although i don't agree because personally i do all my betting in base 16, and it's not a round number in that)

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 26 February 2016 20:51 (eight years ago) link

I think the question is less about what vaguely-stated policy positions Donald Trump honestly intends to follow through on (my guess: roughly zero) and more about what his angle is in wanting to be president in the first place. Does he have some shifty scheme up his sleeve to make bank as president? Does he think this will give him leverage on construction projects overseas or some shit? He doesn't strike me as someone who believes in much beyond $$$ so I have a hard time seeing him throwing his presidential weight at any issue that doesn't benefit him (and probably only him) directly.

Lisa Welchel's Madcap Macrame Adventure for Windows 2000 (Old Lunch), Friday, 26 February 2016 20:57 (eight years ago) link

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/donald-trump-libel-sue-media

'Cause yeah, America's libel laws are totally keeping me awake at night and are gonna kill my future children...

"Damn the Taquitos" (C. Grisso/McCain), Friday, 26 February 2016 20:58 (eight years ago) link

he desires power xp

lag∞n, Friday, 26 February 2016 20:58 (eight years ago) link

yeah it's not complicated

Οὖτις, Friday, 26 February 2016 21:02 (eight years ago) link

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/26/new-jersey-gov-chris-christie-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/

the tone of this is really odd - Christie's a pariah and a loser, who in the GOP voting base cares about his endorsement?

Οὖτις, Friday, 26 February 2016 21:05 (eight years ago) link

Has he exhibited previous desires for power without attendant acquisition of wealth, though? If he just wanted power, why not run for mayor of NYC or something before now?

Lisa Welchel's Madcap Macrame Adventure for Windows 2000 (Old Lunch), Friday, 26 February 2016 21:07 (eight years ago) link

Christie feels like he needs to prove to himself that he still matters?

Darkest Cosmologist junk (kingfish), Friday, 26 February 2016 21:08 (eight years ago) link

haha the rubio water-break thing from the SOTU response is so great

― marcos, Friday, February 26, 2016 2:36 PM (28 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

you like that video, huh?

hmmmm, I'm starting to get suspicious...

feeling thirsty.... marco(s)?!?!?

Check Yr Scrobbles (Moodles), Friday, 26 February 2016 21:09 (eight years ago) link

"he was on television, dummy"

now he's on EVERY DAY, FOR HOURS

xxp

we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Friday, 26 February 2016 21:09 (eight years ago) link

lol xp

marcos, Friday, 26 February 2016 21:09 (eight years ago) link

Christie wants to make a bullyboy speech at the convention, if he's still at liberty

we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Friday, 26 February 2016 21:10 (eight years ago) link

i laugh at rubio for sure but i do frequently need water during presentations

marcos, Friday, 26 February 2016 21:10 (eight years ago) link

he shdve just drank the water like a big boy

lag∞n, Friday, 26 February 2016 21:11 (eight years ago) link

i had to give a staff-wide presentation at my job a few years ago and i had this like big 40oz stainless steel bottle and i was aware of how silly it looked when i drank from it mid sentence

marcos, Friday, 26 February 2016 21:11 (eight years ago) link

i think part of what was funny too was that rubio's bottle was that like tiny 6oz thing

marcos, Friday, 26 February 2016 21:11 (eight years ago) link

ambitious young republicans fucking up the state of the union responce is an excellent american tradition imo

lag∞n, Friday, 26 February 2016 21:13 (eight years ago) link

usually he prefers a sippy cup

xp

Οὖτις, Friday, 26 February 2016 21:13 (eight years ago) link

ha definitely xp

marcos, Friday, 26 February 2016 21:13 (eight years ago) link

it was also the way he attempted to keep his eyes on the camera lens

gr8080, Friday, 26 February 2016 21:13 (eight years ago) link

nikki haley's bug-eyed alien transmission thing was pretty great this year

marcos, Friday, 26 February 2016 21:14 (eight years ago) link

Nixon sweated just as much and never had this sissy waterbottle option

we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Friday, 26 February 2016 21:14 (eight years ago) link

http://i.imgur.com/go08flz.jpg

this sort of thing comes off better as an offhanded zing than a vendetta, trump not used to ppl talking back

lag∞n, Friday, 26 February 2016 21:15 (eight years ago) link

my favorite part is that little pause right before, like "should I do it, aw heck sure"

nomar, Friday, 26 February 2016 21:15 (eight years ago) link

he wants that water so bad the whole time

lag∞n, Friday, 26 February 2016 21:17 (eight years ago) link

just gimmie the lil sip i need it

lag∞n, Friday, 26 February 2016 21:17 (eight years ago) link

Trump winning and tapping Christie as AG is terrifying

(•̪●) (carne asada), Friday, 26 February 2016 21:20 (eight years ago) link

Would have been better if he turned around and had a sip facing away from the camera miles davis style

nomar, Friday, 26 February 2016 21:21 (eight years ago) link

someone must have told him "whatever you do don't break eye contact with the camera"

nomar, Friday, 26 February 2016 21:21 (eight years ago) link

xpost

or just give the whole speech that way

Check Yr Scrobbles (Moodles), Friday, 26 February 2016 21:23 (eight years ago) link


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