I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

I don't really think "berniesplaining" (an awful coinage) is really an accurate description of Bernie's problem with black voters -- condescension was not the problem, it was the fact that he was an unknown quantity and Clinton was a very well known quantity, and that most voters (including African American voters) don't just read platforms and pick a candidate. In other words, Bernie didn't struggle with the black community because his supporters "splained" too much, he struggled with the black community because people are skeptics.

Condescension was a big massive fucking problem

mordy there has been quite a bit of american intervention in syria and it's arguable that it's been extremely counterproductive in many ways

here's the wikipedia page - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American-led_intervention_in_Syria

here's a recent hersh article talking about how the US military has taken matters into its own hands, behind the back of its CiC - http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n01/seymour-m-hersh/military-to-military

btw i think suzy's epithet is pretty matchless and it shouldn't go unremarked

the hersh piece is wacky. the us has done some intervention however it is has been extremely limited as obama has dragged his feet from the beginning of the conflict - first not providing anything to the rebels and then slowly providing non-military equipment and finally some military equipment. US participation has barely done anything to change the tide of the war and like i pointed out, any intercession they have done has been on behalf of the rebels (supposedly non-ISIS aligned) and the majority of deaths have been from regime-affiliated forces.

like unless your argument is that the US is what has been standing between assad peacefully retaking his country and not the sunni rebel forces, their supporters in turkey + saudi arabia, assad's heavy-handed violence, fear of iran, etc, i don't see how you can claim that US intervention is what has turned it into the world's most terrible ongoing crisis.

ha owned http://gawker.com/how-we-fooled-donald-trump-into-retweeting-benito-musso-1761795039

Thanks, Tracer - but it's swiped from an ILex-0r who had a relevant photoshop on Facebook.

If we really wanted to press the issue, some willing volunteer has to swap his conditioner for Nair. Nobody, least of all Il Douché himself, would notice the faint sulfur whiff of Nair in action.

the possibility that Trump's tax returns will reveal business dealings with the Mafia.

Yeah that's specifically called out in box 14 line b of the 1040. "Amount of Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) attributable to Fat Tony. (NOTE: to itemize income from other mafiosi, including Leo the Nose, Slim Sal, and Big Guido, please use Form 97J.)

Xxxxxxp i think that post was berniesplaining berniesplaining

I don't really think "berniesplaining" (an awful coinage) is really an accurate description of Bernie's problem with black voters -- condescension was not the problem, it was the fact that he was an unknown quantity and Clinton was a very well known quantity, and that most voters (including African American voters) don't just read platforms and pick a candidate. In other words, Bernie didn't struggle with the black community because his supporters "splained" too much, he struggled with the black community because people are skeptics.
Condescension was a big massive fucking problem

― its subtle brume (DJP), Sunday, February 28, 2016 10:57 AM (21 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

it certainly hasn't helped, but i think (the better parts of) that blow piece make a good case for why black folks are, all else being equal, inclined to support the establishment dem over the uncertain idealist pick

bernie bros shd consider that while it might not be the whole story being condescended to by ppl who have no idea what their talking abt is generally an unpleasant experience

Amount of Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) attributable to Fat Tony.

Funny! Cruz suggested it was hidden in his dealings with construction companies. I'm sure Ted Cruz has a detailed and intimate knowledge of mob life.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcUJIvdUcAImmST.jpg

lol

it's seriously so funny to me what certain people will believe, like seriously what kind of echo chamber do you have to live in to believe that

Yah bernie fans are not that scary or irrational in general, they will come out to vote against a kkk-approved candidate in november

ron paul-turned-bernie bros who congregate on reddit prolly? your independent bernie supporters, i gather

i know one dude voting for jill stein, but thats going to be a v small number

he votes in ohio, i told him, k when trump picks jose canseco as SCOTUS judge u come holler at me

People are mostly excited just to have an unrepentantly progressive platform being discussed, it's not exactly a tough phenomenon to unpack

There's definitely a sizable ex-Ron Paul fan contingent of Bernie Sanders supporters that I would not count on to vote intelligently

Full disclosure i voted for jill stein in 2012 but i was in a blue state

Haha xposts

bern got hrc to commit to a $12/hr min wage through mostly bullshitting his way through a campaign that shouldve never gotten off the ground in america, he's a legend imo

The Ron Paul supporters turned Bernie supporters are almost more incredible to me than Trump supporters

He wasn't bullshitting. But yeah, his achievement will be moving Hillary and the party to the left, it's no small thing

How mant paul --> bernie people are there? the bernie supporters i run into are mostly liberal democrats

Not saying it isnt a real constituency, i just wonder how much of his support is actually coming from these "outsider" type voters vs liberal democrats who feel disillusioned by hillary's history of centrism

i think they exist p much exclusively on the web, i dont think they have materialized into actual humans yet

this is the "smoke weed and fuck banks" constituency

(also misogyny)

his achievement will be moving Hillary and the party to the left

Christ, this is SO not gonna happen, are you people conscious?

He wasn't bullshitting. But yeah, his achievement will be moving Hillary and the party to the left, it's no small thing

― spirited ai weiwei (Treeship), Sunday, February 28, 2016 10:45 AM (6 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

to be clear, i think he was sincere in his platform and presentation, but i dont think he entered the race thinking "i, bernie sanders (I-VT), have a really excellent chance at becoming president."

hrc, if elected, is going to be a neolib bomber / Goldman enabler just like O, maaaaybe worse. And you can't stop her, bcz as Senator Bulworth asked, "YA GONNA VOTE REPUBLICAN?"

morbs, if we are going to criticize hrc as being a political windsock i think its logical to say that the sanders campaign provided some leftward gales, forcing her to take some positions that she cant easily walk back. and if she wants the GOTV to beat trump, she will need to stand firm on some of those pledges. we all suspect she'll pivot to the right in the general, but this primary run i think at least mothballed her throwback 90s DLC jersey this time around.

like im not happy with her warmongering or coziness to financial elites and thats a big reason why i voted for bernie but

why im a still arguing with you youve already had this discussion with many ppl more eloquent than i for over a decade, i already know where this goes sorry, dude

yes, her rhetoric will be different for maybe 8-12 more months. ie nothing that matters has changed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UM8F4EuUbw&feature=youtu.be

kind of crazy that gabbard resigned as vice chair of the DNC to jump aboard this sinking ship but good for her

i'm kinda just making shit up but if clinton wins and the GOP really does kind of explode, the sanders/warren wing of the party would be more influential, with the republican party fractured between movement conservatives and all the people who were willing to vote for the guy who isn't sure if wants to denounce the KKK or not. so maybe it finally allows room for people like gabbard to side with liberals rather than whatever clinton's crew is

Why is it obvious that Sanders is no longer in the running because he lost badly in one state where no one expected him to win and which has voted Republican since 1980? Is it that people think this reflects a broader problem with appealing to African-American voters?

maybe someone [misguidedly?] convinced her that her endorsement could help turn the sanders campaign around

xp i think most ppl who thought sanders could (or would) win were thinking that he was behind bc enough ppl didn't know him (including in african amrican communities) and that as the campaign went on he'd close the gap. first he lost nevada where you'd hope he could win if that theory were true, and then loses worse in SC than even the polls said which suggests he's not closing the gap, and certainly not in demographics where he needs to be

Cruz has been on two shows this morning throwing out the possibility that Trump's tax returns will reveal business dealings with the Mafia. (Used the word twice, along with "mob.") Even mentioned a specific name, Fat Tony or something. Trump may be in their pocket, like so many nickels and dimes.

― clemenza, Sunday, February 28, 2016 10:16 AM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

This looks from one angle like a Hail Mary but is srsly legit and I'm surprised they haven't wheeled it out sooner. That first Trump Tower in A.C. made entirely from concrete (!) for starters, you donb't have to be Elliot Ness.

xpost

it also doesn't bode well for him in the run-up to Tuesday, which looks like it will deliver a big list of significant wins for Clinton

Why is it obvious that Sanders is no longer in the running because he lost badly in one state where no one expected him to win and which has voted Republican since 1980? Is it that people think this reflects a broader problem with appealing to African-American voters?

― Hi! I'm twice-coloured! (Sund4r), Sunday, February 28, 2016 11:11 AM (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

the latter. im gonna wait to see exits after super tuesday before i declare the campaign dead, but he is wounded by those south carolina numbers.

yeah, his campaign was never going to win w lopsided victories in northeast states (and even in iowa he only tied). i guess the question is whether he can win in like PA, OH and FL states. hillary is projected to win FL + OH acc to 538. PA we don't vote until much later in the cycle. 538 has hillary at 79% in MA and to me it's hard to imagine sanders could even continue his campaign if he loses there. xp

maybe someone [misguidedly?] convinced her that her endorsement could help turn the sanders campaign around

― Mordy, Sunday, February 28, 2016 12:12 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Because Wasserman-Schultz Inc. says so. Meanwhile:

Trump vs. Clinton

Poll Date Sample MoE Clinton (D) Trump (R) Spread
RCP Average 2/2 - 2/17 -- -- 45.3 42.5 Clinton +2.8
FOX News 2/15 - 2/17 1031 RV 3.0 47 42 Clinton +5
USA Today/Suffolk 2/11 - 2/15 1000 LV 3.0 43 45 Trump +2
Quinnipiac 2/10 - 2/15 1342 RV 2.7 44 43 Clinton +1
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 2.8 47 40 Clinton +7

Trump vs. Sanders:

Poll Date Sample MoE Sanders (D) Trump (R) Spread
RCP Average 2/2 - 2/17 -- -- 47.5 41.5 Sanders +6.0
FOX News 2/15 - 2/17 1031 RV 3.0 53 38 Sanders +15
Quinnipiac 2/10 - 2/15 1342 RV 2.7 48 42 Sanders +6
USA Today/Suffolk 2/11 - 2/15 1000 LV 3.0 43 44 Trump +1
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 2.8 46 42 Sanders +4

Cruz vs. Clinton

Poll Date Sample MoE Cruz (R) Clinton (D) Spread
RCP Average 2/2 - 2/17 -- -- 45.3 44.5 Cruz +0.8
FOX News 2/15 - 2/17 1031 RV 3.0 46 45 Cruz +1
Quinnipiac 2/10 - 2/15 1342 RV 2.7 46 43 Cruz +3
USA Today/Suffolk 2/11 - 2/15 1000 LV 3.0 45 44 Cruz +1
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 2.8 44 46 Clinton +2

Cruz vs. Sanders

Poll Date Sample MoE Sanders (D) Cruz (R) Spread
RCP Average 2/2 - 2/15 -- -- 45.7 41.0 Sanders +4.7
Quinnipiac 2/10 - 2/15 1342 RV 2.7 49 39 Sanders +10
USA Today/Suffolk 2/11 - 2/15 1000 LV 3.0 44 42 Sanders +2
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 2.8 44 42 Sanders +2

Rubio vs. Clinton

Poll Date Sample MoE Rubio (R) Clinton (D) Spread
RCP Average 2/2 - 2/17 -- -- 47.5 42.8 Rubio +4.7
FOX News 2/15 - 2/17 1031 RV 3.0 48 44 Rubio +4
Quinnipiac 2/10 - 2/15 1342 RV 2.7 48 41 Rubio +7
USA Today/Suffolk 2/11 - 2/15 1000 LV 3.0 48 42 Rubio +6
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 2.8 46 44 Rubio +2

Rubio vs. Sanders

Poll Date Sample MoE Sanders (D) Rubio (R) Spread
RCP Average 2/2 - 2/15 -- -- 44.0 44.0 Tie
Quinnipiac 2/10 - 2/15 1342 RV 2.7 47 41 Sanders +6
USA Today/Suffolk 2/11 - 2/15 1000 LV 3.0 42 46 Rubio +4
PPP (D) 2/2 - 2/3 1236 RV 2.8 43 45 Rubio +2

woops that was actually responding to sund4r

look i'd rather bernie won too, but those numbers don't really mean anything

That's not true. They obviously mean something. Nothing to take to the bank, but certainly discredits DNC narrative re: electability

youre wrong