hall of fame, next vote...

kinda wondering about pedroia and kinsler at this point, those dudes are neck-and-neck in WAR and got some years left. this season they've both got a WAR around 2.0 already.

love mauer but he feels like mattingly or will clark, those guys were surefire during their peaks but then fell off and not as badly as mauer has. the fact he was a catcher during his peak would help a bit i think but i don't know...

i think the only way mauer would get in is if he had a couple of unexpected 6+ WAR seasons over the next few years to top his career off.it's not really fair or logical but i don't see him getting in based solely off of his first 10 years, as impressive as they were.

yeah i wasn't sure whether to put mauer under good bet or slipping

kinsler i'm not sure had a high enough peak. even if he somehow puts up another 20 WAR over the next 6-7 years, you're still talking about a guy with a 35-win 7-year peak
pedroia's got the advantage of a better peak and the rings, i should have had him under "needs a good second half" maybe

Mauer's chances ended w/ his catching career

arrieta would have to be literally this dominant for a minimum of the next like 6 years? don't see it

yeah the only reason i threw him on there was because david schoenfield had an article about him today, which prompted this revive. i don't really see it either, unless like you said he continues to dominate for at least another 5-6 years. he's already 30

trout and kershaw i'm pretty sure could die tragically tomorrow and both make a run at the first ballot

you have to have 10 seasons; not sure if that's been waived for anyone (Addie Joss?)

didn't know about the 10-year rule!

Joss did get in w/ 9 seasons (died at 31 of tb)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Addie_Joss#Recognition

i forgot how young giancarlo stanton is, too. he probably needs to be on the board somewhere

Schoenfield made an interesting case for Arrieta. Sure, he's only 1.5 seasons into the 7-8 year peak that he needs, so it's all just fortune telling at this point, but there is an impressive list of pitchers who didn't dominate until they hit their 30's and went on to make the HOF.

Unless a bunch of writers won't vote for Ortiz because of his 2003 drug tests (which might very well happen), I don't see how he isn't a shoo-in at this point.

Mauer's drop-off is surprising. Three years ago he was a no-brainer for me, I figured he's be piling up a few more .400 OBP seasons and remaining marginally productive for a few years after that, but he's fallen off a cliff.

Halladay already seems like ancient history. If Schilling and Mussina can't get close then I'm not sure what it'll take for Doc. Maybe voter attitudes are changing, with "low win" pitchers like Smoltz and Pedro getting in easily.

rising: mccutcheon, harper, donaldson, madbum, sale, machado, strasburg

Strasburg has no chance (not dominant enough, too injury-prone). It's way too early to say with Harper, as of right now he's had one season + one month of Bonds-ian numbers, and a few years of of ups and downs. I'd put my money on Cutch and Madbum though. If Bumgarner wins another championship he can probably Pettitte his way into the HOF, even if his career numbers/WAR aren't as dominant as his contemporaries.

you had me worried for a second that Pettitte was in already! He shouldn't get in.

Strasburg has no chance RIGHT NOW, I'd say, not that it looks probable.

ortiz may be helped by the postseason success. he's definitely no shoo-in, though -- his career OPS+ of 140 puts him at 76th all-time, before you even get to the fact that he doesn't play defense. plus, it's hard to make the case that he should be in the hall if a clearly superior DH (martinez) still isn't in

strasburg's 27! and seems to be figuring things out

I meant that Bumgarner's HOF case will be a lot like Pettitte's.

Strasburg has no chance right now, and I can't see a plausible path to get him there.

plus, it's hard to make the case that he should be in the hall if a clearly superior DH (martinez) still isn't in

But it's not either/or -- they should both be in. Edgar not getting voted in isn't a reason to not support Ortiz getting voted in.

i refuse to cast my imaginary vote for Ortiz until Edgar gets in.

But it's not either/or -- they should both be in. Edgar not getting voted in isn't a reason to not support Ortiz getting voted in.

― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, May 25, 2016 5:07 PM (21 minutes ago)

right, i meant that if voters aren't letting edgar in easy, it's no sure thing that ortiz will waltz in

Surely helps that Papi played in Boston and won rings?

helped Jim Rice! one KIND of ring, at least

safe: pujols, ichiro, cabrera, beltre
close to safe: trout, kershaw,
good bets: mauer, cano, beltran, felix,
needs a good second half: votto, wright, grienke, longoria, posey, goldschmidt, scherzer, price, arrieta, lester
borderline: utley, beltran
slipping: teixiera, sabathia, tulowitzki, verlander
rising: mccutcheon, harper, donaldson, madbum, sale, machado, strasburg
wild card: ortiz

― k3vin k.

Safe: agree with all of those. I'd also put in whoever lobbied hardest for "No--let Albert walk, we'll be okay."

Close to safe: agree. With Kershaw, maybe even closer to Safe than Close to Safe.

Good bets: Cano and Felix agree. I'd drop Mauer's chances precipitously. Beltran, I just don't know.

Needs a good second half: Not that big on Greinke yet. 40% of his career WAR was compiled in two seasons; other than that, one season a little over 5.0. See very little chance for Lester. I think Arrieta might be Mike Scott or somebody like that--long way away, I'd say.

Borderline: Yes--this is where I'd put Beltran. Utley, I don't know.

Slipping: Yes. I'm almost of the belief that Tulowitzki is a figment of Coors field.

Rising: I'd grade McCutchen, Harper, Bumgarner, and Sale higher. Donaldson's interesting--would have said no chance until last year, would need to stay around 7.0+ for four or five more years. Strasburg, I don't know. Fragile.

Wild card: As I wrote on the Red Sox thread, I used to be very much a no-Edgar/no-Ortiz guy, but I'm with NoTime now--he's sailed past that with the third WS, 500 HR, and possibly greatest farewell tour ever. With the voters, I mean--myself, I'm probably still on the fence.

I'd also throw Craig Kimbrel in there somewhere. I realize closers are up against right now in HOF and award voting, but I think he might be the Rivera-like exception. He'd have to keep going for a long time, and would probably need to throw in a decent amount of Kimbrel-like post-season innings, too.

"up against it"

solid argument for mauer:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_C.shtml

No idea where voters' heads will be at 15 years from now, but I think Mauer may end up having an Andruw Jones problem, where almost all his career value is compiled before he's 30. He's working on his third consecutive season of a sub-.400 SLG, especially deadly for a converted 1B/DH.

He has a higher OPS this year than Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Abreu, and Joey Votto

Yadier Molina's name pops up a lot in HOF discussions, and many people think he'll eventually get in for his defense, leadership, playing ball the Cardinal Way, great taste in shoes, etc.

It's interesting to see that he's below Buster Posey, Russell Martin, and Victor Martinez (!) on the JAWS list.

(xpost) True, but doesn't that say more about the other three guys having sub=par years than it does about Mauer? .758 is very mediocre for a first baseman.

Forgot about Molina. Was never sure about him, and I find catchers tough to gauge unless they're really obvious. Ages ago, I thought Sundberg and Boone had an outside shot, but I was giving way too much weight to their defense; Sundberg was one-and-out, Boone lasted five ballots but never got over 8%.

yeah Posey has to be in the rising list.

one other name to toss in there in ryan braun but obviously the PED thing and how he handled it is gonna wreck his shot.

ortiz is closer to sure thing than wild card imo, those old baseball dudes aren't all dead yet

was cynical about those pitchers but there was some thing a while back that showed something like most HOF pitchers amassed the majority of their WAR in their 30s and 40s. longevity is a huge factor for pitchers, also impossible to predict. i reckon there's at least one 0_o dude in his late 20s right now who will eventually end up with the credentials.

Bonds, Clemens and A-Rod will be in inside 40 years if C'town is not under water

kind of on this topic, i was looking at the active HR leaders list and 500 HR used to be a guarantee for HOF election (not lately for a couple reasons, obv.) but it looks like the 500 HR club won't see many new members for awhile after cabrera (almost definitely) and beltre (maybe? 50/50 shot?)

i'm thinking beltran and teixeira could have a couple more years with decent HR totals but i don't know about hitting well enough for long enough to get to 500.

not sure about the rest of these clowns. i used the 200+ club as an arbitrary cutoff.

Carlos Beltran (19, 39) - 402
Mark Teixeira (14, 36) - 397
Ryan Howard (13, 36) - 365
Prince Fielder (12, 32) - 313
Jose Bautista (13, 35) - 296
Adrian Gonzalez (13, 34) - 294
Matt Holliday (13, 36) - 282
Edwin Encarnacion (12, 33) - 277
Curtis Granderson (13, 35) - 271
Ryan Braun (10, 32) - 263
Robinson Cano (12, 33) - 253
Nelson Cruz (12, 35) - 251
Nick Swisher (12, 35) - 245
David Wright (13, 33) - 241
Mark Reynolds (10, 32 - 239)
Chase Utley (14, 37) - 238
Brian McCann (12, 32) - 231
Jimmy Rollins (17, 37) - 231
Jay Bruce (9, 29) - 216
Matt Kemp (11, 31) - 215
Hanley Ramirez (12, 32) - 214
Chris Davis (9, 30) - 213
Evan Longoria (9, 30) - 213
Mike Napoli (11, 34) - 212
Victor Martinez (14, 37) - 206
Ryan Zimmerman (12, 31) - 206
Jayson Werth (14, 37) - 204
Adam Jones (11, 30) - 201
Hunter Pence (10, 33) - 201
Troy Tulowitzki (11, 31) - 201
Josh Hamilton (9, 35) - 200

Trout, Harper, and Stanton would seem like solid bets for the under 200 crowd. Stanton is barely under 200, he's at 193. Goldschmidt? I don't know.

so, i was wondering about Santana the other day (I was playing OOTP baseball and when the HOF vote came up I was giving him some serious thought). his career counting stats aren't close to what you would hope for, he dropped off quickly with his injuries. but for about 6 years he was insanely dominant. it's crazy how good he was. i don't think he'll get in, but his peak from '03-'08 was hard to ignore.
another name that looked surprising good looking back: Jason Giambi.

If you're going to have a 5- or 6-year peak, it has to be Koufax-level. Gooden's career counting stats have as good or better a case as Johan's, I think?

Oh we're not talking about Ervin Santana?

no, Danny.

True, but doesn't that say more about the other three guys having sub=par years than it does about Mauer? .758 is very mediocre for a first baseman.

Clearly he's not a slugger, but he's a good contact hitter, has superb plate discipline, and is a good defender. That's why he's currently third-best among 1B in WAR. Obviously he's wouldn't be a Hall of Famer as a 1B but he's a Hall of Fame caliber catcher who unfortunately should not play catcher anymore due head injuries. But despite that he's still a solid starting player at a very offensively-demanding position. He has the same 2016 OPS as ILB-anointed Hall of Famer Buster Posey! (who is well on his way to becoming a 1B himself)

so, i was wondering about Santana the other day (I was playing OOTP baseball and when the HOF vote came up I was giving him some serious thought). his career counting stats aren't close to what you would hope for, he dropped off quickly with his injuries. but for about 6 years he was insanely dominant. it's crazy how good he was. i don't think he'll get in, but his peak from '03-'08 was hard to ignore.
another name that looked surprising good looking back: Jason Giambi.

― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, May 26, 2016 4:50 PM (25 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i'm not sure you really get how the hall of fame works

Jason Giambi's peak WAS surprising, I wonder how he did that

i'm not sure you really get how the hall of fame works

ok...

CC's having a pretty good year two months along. Maybe he needs to be moved from "slipping" to "not dead yet"--he's 35, and theoretically has enough time to log three or four solid seasons.

Would definitely add Jose Altuve to Kevin's "rising" group: 26-year-old second baseman, one batting title, headed for third straight 200-hit season, big jump in power and walks this year.

uh old news i declared altuve a future HOFer like 2 years ago and literally every minute of every day since get with it

cc passed glavine in strikeouts today fwiw

yeah altuve is a riser for sure

altuve making the hall of fame should be something the ilx's baseball clan cheerleads for the rest of his career

Will mention this in passing: because of an early jump, the Favorite Toy gives Elvis Andrus a 15% shot at 3,000 hits (which may or may not mean anything 20 years from now).

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/billjames/_/age/27/careertotal/1158/yearone/154/yeartwo/163/yearthree/168/goal/3000

Expect he'll end up in the Jose Reyes/Steve Sax around-2,000 group. Altuve's currently at 28%.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/billjames/_/age/26/careertotal/890/yearone/200/yeartwo/225/yearthree/177/goal/3000

the still-only-26 yo starlin is at 12%

actually wrong, going by his age last year he's at 15%. he is 100% 26 this year though, so not sure that matters.