hall of fame, next vote...

the still-only-26 yo starlin is at 12%

actually wrong, going by his age last year he's at 15%. he is 100% 26 this year though, so not sure that matters.

i'm wondering if all 3 of bagwell/raines/hoffman will get in on the next ballot. none of the other holdovers will come close imo. there's no grassroots campaigning for mussina and schilling (the latter being a tedious right winger won't help either) and the PED dudes will miss out again or fall off the ballot (i bet sosa get 4%.) no one seems to really care about edgar, walker, mcgriff, or kent.

i-rod, manny, and vlad are interesting test cases.

it's tough for anyone who went to college to get to the hall these days imo. kris bryant is nine months older than bryce harper, but harper has an extra three years in the majors. rick porcello is the epitome of a league-average pitcher, but he has 92 wins in his age-27 season because he got an early start and pitched for some good teams.

and circumstances play such a huge role -- not that he's a likely hall of famer, but gary sanchez has been a top-100 prospect for five full years now. he's still only 23, but maybe if the yankees hadn't signed brian mccann to a huge contract, he'd have been in the majors for three years now.

not that that takes anything away from altuve, etc., but they were so fortunate to get the opportunities they did

HOF-ers are usually great players well into their 30's though. If a HOF candidate needs 8-10 great years and a few more good ones to pad his stats, then a college player who breaks in at age 22-23 only needs to play until age 36-37 to have a decent HOF case.

I think the advantage of starting younger is that you can flame out somewhat but still recover and hang on for enough years to have a decent HOF case. If Andruw Jones hadn't fallen apart after age 30 and had hung on as a DH for 3-4 more years, then he could have had 500 HR, 70+ WAR, and been remembered as an all-time great defender. He'd probably have been a shoo-in for election. Even *with* falling apart and having a couple of the worst years ever, he still come back (sort of) and had a couple of decent years before flaming out again and going to Japan. After a couple of good years there he had a reasonable chance for another MLB comeback -- he was still in his late 30's! And despite all that he still has a case as a borderline HOFer.

IOW, starting younger probably helps the borderline HOFers more than the ones who clear the bar with room to spare. A guy with 12-15 great years will stay great until his late 30's and it won't matter as much if he was a rookie at age 21 or age 24. Whereas a guy who started at age 21, had 6-8 great years followed by ten years of hanging around as a 1-1.5 win player might actually compile enough stats to convince people that he's a HOFer.

Maybe the two most famous examples of guys getting inexplicably late starts (both had clearly established they were ready at least two or three years earlier): Boggs gets his first full season in at 25, Edgar Martinez at 27. Boggs made it a moot point with eight or nine years of Ty Cobb; Edgar should be in the HOF, I (and many people) believe, but those missed years have probably kept him out. Hard to say, but if he had been given the third base job at 22, he maybe ends up with 3,000 hits and 400 HR.

Not disagreeing that in most cases, that early three-year window ultimately doesn't matter much re the HOF. Martinez might be an exception--his rate stats should be good enough, but along with the DH issue they haven't.

possibly relevant thing that came out of the urias hoopla is boras saying that pitchers with 650+ innings on their arms before they turn 24 aren't productive after they turn 30. which seems to be the case so far with CC and the rapidly declining felix, and it makes me hella nervous for kershaw (and madbum's there too). matt cain turned to shit at 28.

there are 19 pitchers since 1975 who fit that bill and 2 HOFers -- maddux and eck. list also includes valenzuela, gooden, avery, saberhagen, tanana. expand it to the top 50 and it looks like you add one more HOFer, smoltz with 503 IP (though i'm being sneaky, clemens is at 51).

maybe the high school thing only really applies to hitters.

But nearly all of those guys pitched before teams started paying attention to pitch counts and high inning workloads, especially for young pitchers. It was also an era (late 70's and all the of 80's) where pitchers of all ages flamed out. Jack Morris somehow ended up as the last man standing and almost made the HOF because there was almost nobody else from his era who had a long career. Something weird was happening to pitchers' arms in the 80's and I'm not sure it's connected to the mileage on their arms when they were young.

Felix hasn't had a serious injury in his entire career, I don't think he belongs in the discussion. After ten years of dominating this might be the start of a natural decline phase, not something injury related.

guys like felix and kershaw are putting up similar IP numbers and throwing harder than most of these 70s/80s pitchers. can't say they're really being handled carefully, except that one time kershaw got hurt and they played it safe.

i don't think it's really about injuries, it's just about putting miles on those arms. this is tough because the sample is so small but look at the velos of felix and CC. steeper declines at younger ages than you'd expect, by several years. sabathia went from 94 to 90 in three years and he's dropped another 3 this year. felix has lost 2 MPH on everything this season, which is the type of decline i'd expect from a 36 year old, not a healthy guy that just turned 30.

compare it to guys like scherzer, hamels, lester, cueto, zimmermann, all guys in their 30s aging pretty gracefully velo-wise. those are the types i'd have pegged as potential HOFers (the first 3 at least), guys who could just keep being good for another decade+.

it's all small sample size though, maybe someone's done an article about it.

It's definitely about putting miles on arms. Scherzer still throws hard at age 31, but let's see how hard he throws in another 3-4 years when he's pitched as many innings as Felix.

Just about every pitcher, even the best ones, lose velocity as they age. But maybe we're entering another transition period -- in the past, pitchers could lose several MPH but still throw mid to high 80's and still be effective for years if they made adjustments. Now, the hitters are too good and will murder almost any fastball thrown under 90. Pitchers need to figure out how to cope with that to extend their career. In the old days he'd have switched to long relief, or developed a new pitch or two. Maybe those things are due for a comeback? (especially the long relief role, which has all but vanished in today's game)

Yusmeiro Petit has a chance!

i think the thing boras is trying to get across is the question of whether or not putting miles on those arms at a young age when the body is still in development mode sets the body up to fail at an exponentially higher rate than it would otherwise at younger ages.

but even if it's a straight shot -- start your career 4 years earlier than average, start decline 4 years earlier than average (though that certainly doesn't work both ways) -- we take it for granted. teenage phenoms come up and we assume they're getting a four year boost and they're more likely to hit these major milestones because of it. might be reasonable for hitters but probably not pitchers.

*otherwise and at younger ages, that came out weird

changes to the veterans committee voting procedures. there are now 4 official eras: "early baseball" (1871-1949), "golden days" (1950-1969), "modern baseball" (1970-1987), and "today's game" (1988-present). candidates from "early baseball" will be considered once every 10 years; those from the "golden days" once every 5 years, and those from the "modern" and "today" twice every 5 years

lol none of that matters until you force them at gunpoint to vote one player in from 1990->now and even then you're gonna get stuck with an Eckstein

One of these guys responsible for inventing "today's game."

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/1988-rookies.shtml

I'll go with Jack McDowell for being all over grunge.

lolsmoltz 3 WAR for batting

what do you all think of chase utley's chances?

11th among 2B by JAWS

bWAR: 63.9 -15th among 2B, approaching HOF Biggio (65.1), less than non-HOF Bobby Grich (70.9).

for those that care about such things, he has the single team thing going for most of his career, and was part of the Phillies 2008-09 team in the WS.

but unfortunately for largely the same group of people who care about such things, he only has a .278 BA, 248 HR, and 1770 hits.

i think he's on the edge, but it doesn't help that Cano is already nipping at his heels in many ways and is 4 years younger

if i had a vote, he'd get it without question. and i think in 15-20 years or so when he's nearing the end of his eligibility, he'll get in as voters get younger and smarter. but i think he'll suffer from some obvious problems in the beginning
- no counting stats
- plays second base
- lots of value from defense and base running
- overshadowed in his prime by two clearly inferior players on his own team

that 5-year run he had to start his career has to be in the top 5 of any 2B's best 5-year run ever. dude was amazing, and continued to be super valuable even when his big hitting numbers started to decline

the other obvious reason is all the time he missed. never mind of course that he was insanely valuable when he did play

utley > cano too, imo

utley > cano too, imo

otm but i love cano too and hope he makes the hall

same

Maybe it shouldn't, but it bothers me when a player's value is so heavily tilted towards his 20s (same problem with Andruw Jones). No argument as to peak value.

Cano is great, and he's basically a lock for 3000 hits (his contract all but guarantees he'll get enough playing time even if his production falls off a cliff) so you can pretty much start clearing space for his HOF plaque right now.

Utley's traditional counting stats will cost him a lot of votes, but sure, the voters are getting younger and smarter so maybe it won't matter as much by the time he's eligible. He also might get swept in by position biases. Ten years ago, 1B and OF were the glamour positions for offense in MLB and some borderline candidates were elected (e.g. Perez, Rice, Dawson) because voters collectively overrated those positions while underrating 2B and 3B. Now, we're in a golden age for 2B and 3B, and that might help a guy like Utley get elected (i.e. voters will consider his case more closely than they would have otherwise, and he's less likely to get swept under the rug like Whitaker did).

one thing i like about the other HOFs is that they often seem less concerned with compilers and more interested in peak value players. i'd vote for Utley in a heartbeat, right along w/Cano, who has a pretty damn good shot at 400 HR along w/3000 hits. i mentioned kinsler before as having an interesting HOF case and with the season he's having this year, he's even more interesting imo. i'm kind of agnostic on him, though.

i would also vote for Beltran but i feel like the voters aren't gonna give him a fair shake.

kinda wondering about guys like longoria and votto too.

longoria is gonna get close to 40 HR this year, he's only 30, he's at 46.5 WAR. etc...

votto is having a great year w/the stick but his WAR isn't great because apparently he's garbage on defense.

i'm always surprised at the relative low numbers for votto's counting stats, too, since he's been so consistently excellent for the last 8 years.

his career OBP, though - .425 - is astounding. he's 12th all-time, and the only other active player over .400 is Mike Trout (45th all-time)

probably an obvious point but i do think that this season has basically guaranteed big papi is getting in. his WAR this year isn't ridiculous and neither is his career WAR, but i think he's probably won over a few fence-straddlers at this point.

votto is having a great year w/the stick but his WAR isn't great because apparently he's garbage on defense.

― nomar, Wednesday, September 21, 2016 1:30 PM (one hour ago)

votto's been an above-average defender (at first base, of course) his whole career, this season seems to be some sort of fluke. but yeah he's got a lot of work to do to get to the HOF. though he's a smart guy and i bet his hitting skills will age well

yeah votto seems like one of those guys who would at worst lose the power but maintain the average and high BB rate. for the HOF though he seems like potentially this generation's version of will clark (albeit far more of a comedian about his villainy)

sounds a little like Helton

If Ortiz had retired in 2012 he would have been a borderline case that would have stirred up some interesting debate. However, his 2013 season sealed the deal in the eyes of most HOF voters and after 2015-6, his career stats are too ridiculous even for statheads to ignore. Earning the rep as one of the best "old" hitters ever doesn't hurt either.

or THE best old hitter.

- most homers in a final season
- on track for most RBI in a final season (passing shoeless joe)
- most doubles by a 40-year-old

i still lol at this:

http://www.espn.com/espnmag/story?id=4223584

If Ortiz had retired in 2012 he would have been a borderline case that would have stirred up some interesting debate. However, his 2013 season sealed the deal in the eyes of most HOF voters and after 2015-6, his career stats are too ridiculous even for statheads to ignore. Earning the rep as one of the best "old" hitters ever doesn't hurt either.

― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, September 21, 2016 4:16 PM (one hour ago)

wait, which numbers are these? 500 home runs?

Yeah, 500 HR and leapfrogging about 20 names on the all-time HR leaderboard, including a few inner circle HOFers. Same for RBI's and doubles (10th all time, between Aaron and Wagner, not bad).

Another second baseman I think has a chance is Dustin Pedroia. Not saying he is a lock, I think we all agree he is not at this point. Is it me or second basemen are difficult to predict when it comes to the HOF? Alomar and Sandberg were obvious locks (2nd and 3rd ballot), but Whitaker got 2.9%, some people are saying Utley should not get in. Anyway, Pedroia has had a 5 fWAR season, and sits at 46.5 and probably has a good 4-5 years left in him. He has the trophies, MVP, etc. Hopefully, we will see all three of Cano, Utley and Pedroia in.

i think weirdly, what might hurt him is he got the hardware in his first two years and everything so far kinda of looks like decline after that.

R u srs about Pedroia having 4-5 yrs left

i dunno. 4 years wouldn't shock me.

BP did a "draft" of the 25 most likely active HOFers a couple weeks ago. As i think it was a free article i'll try to find the link, in the hopes no one will be posting about this discredited institution in the middle of playoff games next month...

Dustin Pedroia has had a pretty good season, it's really all about injuries and bat speed I'd figure. I'd say the thing that will boost Pedroia is staying with the Red Sox his whole career and being a key part of winning another World Series.

Robbie Alomar looked like a lock for 3000 hits at age 32-33 and kind of fell off a cliff. Sandberg also dropped off hard too, his power vanished.

It would be interesting to know what a guy like Votto would do in a lineup where they couldn't pitch around him. The guy has had Brandon Phillips batting clean up behind him a TON of his career.

Sabermetric analyses have shown that lineup "protection" is not statistically significant.

yeah votto seems like one of those guys who would at worst lose the power but maintain the average and high BB rate. for the HOF though he seems like potentially this generation's version of will clark (albeit far more of a comedian about his villainy)

― nomar, Wednesday, September 21, 2016 3:31 PM (eight months ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

sounds a little like Helton

― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, September 21, 2016 3:52 PM (eight months ago)

helton is the comp i most often think about with votto

votto's numbers are better despite being non-mile-high (not that gabp is petco, but still)

also he won an mvp

helton's peak might just edge votto's out, but votto will end up with the better career probably