hall of fame, next vote...

It's definitely about putting miles on arms. Scherzer still throws hard at age 31, but let's see how hard he throws in another 3-4 years when he's pitched as many innings as Felix.

Just about every pitcher, even the best ones, lose velocity as they age. But maybe we're entering another transition period -- in the past, pitchers could lose several MPH but still throw mid to high 80's and still be effective for years if they made adjustments. Now, the hitters are too good and will murder almost any fastball thrown under 90. Pitchers need to figure out how to cope with that to extend their career. In the old days he'd have switched to long relief, or developed a new pitch or two. Maybe those things are due for a comeback? (especially the long relief role, which has all but vanished in today's game)

Yusmeiro Petit has a chance!

i think the thing boras is trying to get across is the question of whether or not putting miles on those arms at a young age when the body is still in development mode sets the body up to fail at an exponentially higher rate than it would otherwise at younger ages.

but even if it's a straight shot -- start your career 4 years earlier than average, start decline 4 years earlier than average (though that certainly doesn't work both ways) -- we take it for granted. teenage phenoms come up and we assume they're getting a four year boost and they're more likely to hit these major milestones because of it. might be reasonable for hitters but probably not pitchers.

*otherwise and at younger ages, that came out weird

changes to the veterans committee voting procedures. there are now 4 official eras: "early baseball" (1871-1949), "golden days" (1950-1969), "modern baseball" (1970-1987), and "today's game" (1988-present). candidates from "early baseball" will be considered once every 10 years; those from the "golden days" once every 5 years, and those from the "modern" and "today" twice every 5 years

lol none of that matters until you force them at gunpoint to vote one player in from 1990->now and even then you're gonna get stuck with an Eckstein

One of these guys responsible for inventing "today's game."

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/1988-rookies.shtml

I'll go with Jack McDowell for being all over grunge.

lolsmoltz 3 WAR for batting

what do you all think of chase utley's chances?

11th among 2B by JAWS

bWAR: 63.9 -15th among 2B, approaching HOF Biggio (65.1), less than non-HOF Bobby Grich (70.9).

for those that care about such things, he has the single team thing going for most of his career, and was part of the Phillies 2008-09 team in the WS.

but unfortunately for largely the same group of people who care about such things, he only has a .278 BA, 248 HR, and 1770 hits.

i think he's on the edge, but it doesn't help that Cano is already nipping at his heels in many ways and is 4 years younger

if i had a vote, he'd get it without question. and i think in 15-20 years or so when he's nearing the end of his eligibility, he'll get in as voters get younger and smarter. but i think he'll suffer from some obvious problems in the beginning
- no counting stats
- plays second base
- lots of value from defense and base running
- overshadowed in his prime by two clearly inferior players on his own team

that 5-year run he had to start his career has to be in the top 5 of any 2B's best 5-year run ever. dude was amazing, and continued to be super valuable even when his big hitting numbers started to decline

the other obvious reason is all the time he missed. never mind of course that he was insanely valuable when he did play

utley > cano too, imo

utley > cano too, imo

otm but i love cano too and hope he makes the hall

same

Maybe it shouldn't, but it bothers me when a player's value is so heavily tilted towards his 20s (same problem with Andruw Jones). No argument as to peak value.

Cano is great, and he's basically a lock for 3000 hits (his contract all but guarantees he'll get enough playing time even if his production falls off a cliff) so you can pretty much start clearing space for his HOF plaque right now.

Utley's traditional counting stats will cost him a lot of votes, but sure, the voters are getting younger and smarter so maybe it won't matter as much by the time he's eligible. He also might get swept in by position biases. Ten years ago, 1B and OF were the glamour positions for offense in MLB and some borderline candidates were elected (e.g. Perez, Rice, Dawson) because voters collectively overrated those positions while underrating 2B and 3B. Now, we're in a golden age for 2B and 3B, and that might help a guy like Utley get elected (i.e. voters will consider his case more closely than they would have otherwise, and he's less likely to get swept under the rug like Whitaker did).

one thing i like about the other HOFs is that they often seem less concerned with compilers and more interested in peak value players. i'd vote for Utley in a heartbeat, right along w/Cano, who has a pretty damn good shot at 400 HR along w/3000 hits. i mentioned kinsler before as having an interesting HOF case and with the season he's having this year, he's even more interesting imo. i'm kind of agnostic on him, though.

i would also vote for Beltran but i feel like the voters aren't gonna give him a fair shake.

kinda wondering about guys like longoria and votto too.

longoria is gonna get close to 40 HR this year, he's only 30, he's at 46.5 WAR. etc...

votto is having a great year w/the stick but his WAR isn't great because apparently he's garbage on defense.

i'm always surprised at the relative low numbers for votto's counting stats, too, since he's been so consistently excellent for the last 8 years.

his career OBP, though - .425 - is astounding. he's 12th all-time, and the only other active player over .400 is Mike Trout (45th all-time)

probably an obvious point but i do think that this season has basically guaranteed big papi is getting in. his WAR this year isn't ridiculous and neither is his career WAR, but i think he's probably won over a few fence-straddlers at this point.

votto is having a great year w/the stick but his WAR isn't great because apparently he's garbage on defense.

― nomar, Wednesday, September 21, 2016 1:30 PM (one hour ago)

votto's been an above-average defender (at first base, of course) his whole career, this season seems to be some sort of fluke. but yeah he's got a lot of work to do to get to the HOF. though he's a smart guy and i bet his hitting skills will age well

yeah votto seems like one of those guys who would at worst lose the power but maintain the average and high BB rate. for the HOF though he seems like potentially this generation's version of will clark (albeit far more of a comedian about his villainy)

sounds a little like Helton

If Ortiz had retired in 2012 he would have been a borderline case that would have stirred up some interesting debate. However, his 2013 season sealed the deal in the eyes of most HOF voters and after 2015-6, his career stats are too ridiculous even for statheads to ignore. Earning the rep as one of the best "old" hitters ever doesn't hurt either.

or THE best old hitter.

- most homers in a final season
- on track for most RBI in a final season (passing shoeless joe)
- most doubles by a 40-year-old

i still lol at this:

http://www.espn.com/espnmag/story?id=4223584

If Ortiz had retired in 2012 he would have been a borderline case that would have stirred up some interesting debate. However, his 2013 season sealed the deal in the eyes of most HOF voters and after 2015-6, his career stats are too ridiculous even for statheads to ignore. Earning the rep as one of the best "old" hitters ever doesn't hurt either.

― NoTimeBeforeTime, Wednesday, September 21, 2016 4:16 PM (one hour ago)

wait, which numbers are these? 500 home runs?

Yeah, 500 HR and leapfrogging about 20 names on the all-time HR leaderboard, including a few inner circle HOFers. Same for RBI's and doubles (10th all time, between Aaron and Wagner, not bad).

Another second baseman I think has a chance is Dustin Pedroia. Not saying he is a lock, I think we all agree he is not at this point. Is it me or second basemen are difficult to predict when it comes to the HOF? Alomar and Sandberg were obvious locks (2nd and 3rd ballot), but Whitaker got 2.9%, some people are saying Utley should not get in. Anyway, Pedroia has had a 5 fWAR season, and sits at 46.5 and probably has a good 4-5 years left in him. He has the trophies, MVP, etc. Hopefully, we will see all three of Cano, Utley and Pedroia in.

i think weirdly, what might hurt him is he got the hardware in his first two years and everything so far kinda of looks like decline after that.

R u srs about Pedroia having 4-5 yrs left

i dunno. 4 years wouldn't shock me.

BP did a "draft" of the 25 most likely active HOFers a couple weeks ago. As i think it was a free article i'll try to find the link, in the hopes no one will be posting about this discredited institution in the middle of playoff games next month...

Dustin Pedroia has had a pretty good season, it's really all about injuries and bat speed I'd figure. I'd say the thing that will boost Pedroia is staying with the Red Sox his whole career and being a key part of winning another World Series.

Robbie Alomar looked like a lock for 3000 hits at age 32-33 and kind of fell off a cliff. Sandberg also dropped off hard too, his power vanished.

It would be interesting to know what a guy like Votto would do in a lineup where they couldn't pitch around him. The guy has had Brandon Phillips batting clean up behind him a TON of his career.

Sabermetric analyses have shown that lineup "protection" is not statistically significant.

yeah votto seems like one of those guys who would at worst lose the power but maintain the average and high BB rate. for the HOF though he seems like potentially this generation's version of will clark (albeit far more of a comedian about his villainy)

― nomar, Wednesday, September 21, 2016 3:31 PM (eight months ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

sounds a little like Helton

― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, September 21, 2016 3:52 PM (eight months ago)

helton is the comp i most often think about with votto

votto's numbers are better despite being non-mile-high (not that gabp is petco, but still)

also he won an mvp

helton's peak might just edge votto's out, but votto will end up with the better career probably

the reds might be good in a few years, too. winning a WS or at least getting close + Votto being a reds lifer would help his HOF case, even though that's dumb

helton had a couple of WAR years that were 8+ and another one that was close, votto has had one that was 7+. but helton was basically done as a star player after he hit 30, his five-year run as a legit MVP candidate was his peak. votto is 33 and seems to be getting better in certain areas and is on pace for maybe his best season yet.

so here are the guys who are

a) holdovers with a decent enough shot at making the HOF.

or

b) newcomers with a reasonable shot. not included: guys like Berkman, Abreu, etc..

the only ones I'm certain about coming up are Jones, Thome, Rivera, and Jeter. with the holdovers, Hoffman and Guerrero, obviously. no idea on the others. can't tell if E-Mart has any decent momentum or if people will change their minds on Clemens, Bonds, and Schilling. Mussina might have a better chance than any of them, in the end.

it'll be interesting. in 2020 it's really just Jeter and no one else. in 2021 there are zero candidates that are worthy. unless you think Tim Hudson, Mark Buehrle, and Torii Hunter belong.

holdovers

Trevor Hoffman 3rd
Vladimir Guerrero 2nd
Edgar Martinez 9th
Roger Clemens 6th
Barry Bonds 6th
Mike Mussina 5th
Curt Schilling 6th
Manny Ramirez 2nd

2018

Chipper Jones
Jim Thome
Scott Rolen

2019

Andy Pettitte
Todd Helton
Roy Halladay
Mariano Rivera

2020

Derek Jeter

i don't wanna be alive for a HOF ceremony that's literally just jeter

good news, that might be the same year Schilling makes it

actually i think Ortiz will be eligible in 2021, so add him

Agree with most of those except Rolen and Pettitte. As always, I'm projecting, not offering an opinion on who deserves to go in.

it'll be sad when hoffman goes in because it'll open up the floodgates for a lot of other relievers

hoffman was only notable for the saves total and very few relievers will ever get the opportunities he got

Honestly, I don't think it will. My sense is that the bar has been set a little below Rivera. I don't think you can reasonably set the bar at Rivera, because you'd essentially be saying that's it for closers in the HOF. After Hoffman, I don't think you'll see another one seriously considered until that group of three I ran the poll on, probably Kimbrel if he stays healthy.