I DON'T KNOW WHERE THE BOTTOM IS • US presidential elections part VIII

Cycling video guy legit terrifying.

That cyclist won't be getting his windows cleaned by Jack Dunn any time soon - and that's not a euphemism... or is it?

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whos-behind-a-mysterious-website-saying-polls-are-skewed-against-trump/

538 challenges methodology used in an "unskewed" polling website. if you listen to their election podcast, you heard a mini-rant about their procedures this week.

loved this gem,

The site’s methodology page assures readers that “it is a mathematical certainty, that as the election approaches, all of the polls will begin to match the polls here on LongRoom.”

^^^ this will surprise many

holy shit that cycling video

i daresay that awful man has a terrible relationship with his children, and also his dentist

as the election approaches, all of the polls will begin to match the polls here on LongRoom

To me, this suggests that LongRoom has a very simple game plan in which it gradually reduces its unskewing efforts, so that on the day before the election it exactly coincides with the RCP and 538 aggregates. Surprise, surprise! They were right all along, retroactively justifying their methodology.

It's like drawing the bullseyes after you've shot your arrow. Lookit that! Another perfect shot!

increased traffic seems to have taken their site down. oops

http://i64.tinypic.com/2vk18oo.jpg

just two old guys discussin things

I was looking at the predicted presidential election outcomes and wondered to myself why nebraska's third congressional district was listed separately
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska's_3rd_congressional_district

now I am fucking dying laughing

All those Trump/Hewitt exchanges remind me of a scene I witnessed leaving a Neil Young concert in 1993, with an incredibly wasted guy yelling at a group of young women while two of his friends were carrying him across the parking lot:

Drunk: I WANNA EAT YOU

Drunk's Friend, trying to cover for him: You mean you'd like to take her out to eat?

Drunk: NO I WANNA EAT YOUR PUSSY

Hey now hey now now...

Here's my map

http://www.270towin.com/maps/1lky3

Why do you guys post big jpgs of text rather than just copying/pasting the text?

joygoat I laughed too hard at that

Bumping the Hispanic/Latino vote further toward Hillary (85/15 instead of 2012's 73/27ish) and upping turnout a couple of points puts Arizona blue but literally no map think it's competitive.
I don't know if I'm being overly optimistic about the vote shift or if that's a quirk of 538's election calculator thing.

holy shit that cycling video

― Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Thursday, August 11, 2016 3:20 PM (49 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

the combo of the hyper aggressiveness and the surfer accent is really unexpected.

I bet a simple neural network could emulate Trump-speak pretty quickly

People playing with Markov chains:

Insta Trump
Automatic Donald Trump
Trump Chat Bot

Why do you guys post big jpgs of text rather than just copying/pasting the text?

because that's how they're shared on twitter

The stupid tyranny of stupid twitter.

the combo of the hyper aggressiveness and the surfer accent is really unexpected.

It's like you haven't even seen Point Break.

Aggro surfer doesn't say "pull a Trump" he says "pull trump" - you know, like cards. No less insane but we don't have to make everything about the Donald.

LOL: https://americavoteswithcardsagainsthumanity.com/

Today, we’re letting America choose between two new expansion packs about either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

At the end of this promotion, Cards Against Humanity will tally up the sales of both packs, and depending on which pack gets more support, we will donate all the money in support of Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

Haha

Are these available internationally?
-
This promotion is only available in the United States. If you don’t currently live in the United States, good

jennifer rubin comes awfully close to endorsing hillary https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2016/08/10/republicans-could-have-done-what-clinton-is-doing-now/

lol @ CAH that's awesome

They vied for the most anti-immigrant policy. They eschewed the traits Republicans normally are associated with — sobriety, humility, reason, prudence and faith-based morality.

lol

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CpmWFfcXEAAGb2w.jpg

OMFG. Bill West recorded a bunch of Trump quotes in the voice of Futurama's Zapp Brannigan: http://cheezburger.com/894725/list-billy-west-recorded-some-choice-donald-trump-tweets-in-the-voice-of-zapp-brannigan

Love the FAQ in that Cards Against Humanity promotion:

Are these available internationally?
This promotion is only available in the United States. If you don’t currently live in the United States, good.

“This will be an election that will go down in the history books for the evangelicals, for the Christians, for everybody of religion,” said Trump, according to The Hill.

“So go out and spread the word, and once I get in, I’ll do my thing that I do very well,” he continued. “And I figure it’s probably—maybe the only way I’m going to get into heaven, so I better do a good job.”

http://gawker.com/donald-trump-tells-christian-leaders-he-has-to-win-elec-1785178309

“So go out and spread the word, and once I get in, I’ll do my thing that I do very well,” he continued.

http://www.diversityinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Trump-violence.jpg

don't understand why someone would want to spend their final decade or two on earth becoming the most disgraceful person of all time

if you haven't gotten there by the time you're 50, you might as well give up

don't understand why someone would want to spend their final decade or two on earth becoming the most disgraceful person of all time

― Treeship, Thursday, August 11, 2016 7:28 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

you answered your own question, kind of. the most!

no press is bad press when ur such a winner that it's a shame

first texas poll in couple of months has trump up 11 http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2016/08/11/trump-leads-texas-in-ktvt-cbs-11dixie-strategies-poll/?e=nqnAj57idgC1eA

https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/763894345959440384

http://gawker.com/donald-trump-finally-tells-a-lie-worth-believing-1785180938

Speaking at a rally in Florida Thursday night, Donald Trump repeatedly said it was Friday. As both the attendant crowd and multiple reporters at the scene noted, it was not.

nytimes editorial board

Right now Mr. Trump is losing, and this very likely terrifies him. Maybe he doesn’t know how to control himself, or comprehend why he should. Or he is simply satisfying his boundless need for attention. But his behavior this week raises a more disturbing scenario. Perhaps he has given up on winning through civil means and does not care about the consequences of his campaign of incitement.

Supposedly a big campaign/RNC 'come to Jesus' meeting tomorrow:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-rnc-meeting-226938

One *small* problem -- Trump isn't going to be there.

I wish I knew a word to describe how I feel about all this. Schadenfreude isn't strong enough.

terrified is a good word. one of the best words.

i've been going with sad!

Confuses childcare services for hotel/club guests with childcare services for employees:

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/427e5f6dd29c4c30a99486cdf34cd054/trump-touts-child-care-programs-theyre-guests-only

I've actually been slowly circling back to a theory that was discarded many months ago--that, starting with that phone call with Bill Clinton before he officially entered, Trump is some kind of a mole for Hillary. I realize there's a thousand reasons why that's far-fetched, but his behaviour the past couple of weeks makes no sense at all. That he entered to create mischief for Clinton's side ("You can't win--just put your name in and say whatever you want, ridicule everyone else, create some debate clips we can use in commercials when the general comes around"), incredibly won the nomination despite every attempt to get himself drummed out of the party, then even more miraculously took the lead for a few days...that he would then get crazier than ever seems easier to explain using the mole theory than trying to reconcile his words and actions since he took the lead with the idea that he actually wants to win.

In February, Trump accused the committee of “illegally” making money off of him after it sent out an email fundraising appeal that used his name.

ha

been heartened by the various clips and pictures today of screaming old people. have never been too worried about a trump victory but was darkly certain during the primaries that a permanent fascist constituency was being built that wasn't nearly as grey as the cool kids liked to think -- but he's gotten so artless and incoherent lately i can't imagine anyone being left who hasn't been forwarding HUSSEIN emails to their embarrassed nephews for eight years.

still v concerned about usa's present vulnerability to ambitious horsemen and i sure will be happy if we get all the way to 2017 (let alone 2020) without major political street violence, but trump does seem determined to fall off the horse.

i can't imagine anyone being left

(of course there are plenty left. in general tho the campaign now seems to be dully plowing a recognizable niche out on the fringe whereas it seemed capable before of expanding that niche to swallow half the country.)