I DON'T KNOW WHERE THE BOTTOM IS • US presidential elections part VIII

Every day I open this thread reminds me of Game of Thrones, like what big plot twist will Trump give me today??

is it just me or is the prospect of breitbart running trump not actually scary at all. like, his attacks will get uglier, and the ads may have better production values, but the essential trump problem - not extending his reach far enough beyond the core base that would follow him over a cliff - isn't gonna change as a result of this. breitbart is not what u go to to sway ppl who are on the fences.

Trump Casinos’ Tax Debt Was $30 Million. Then Christie Took Office.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/17/us/politics/trump-chris-christie-casinos.html

is it just me or is the prospect of breitbart running trump not actually scary at all. like, his attacks will get uglier, and the ads may have better production values, but the essential trump problem - not extending his reach far enough beyond the core base that would follow him over a cliff - isn't gonna change as a result of this. breitbart is not what u go to to sway ppl who are on the fences.

― if young slothrop don't trust ya i'm gon' rhyme ya (slothroprhymes), Wednesday, August 17, 2016 12:24 PM (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

also he keeps hiring people that know jack shit about actually *running* a campaign, I mean all that unglamorous "ground game" stuff, data, GOTV efforts, etc etc that HRC is locking down right now

adam f is right imo that literally the only risk is that trump somehow gets disciplined and starts running a more conventional campaign and woos back republicans who want to vote for him but can't atm. but bringing in ailes and breibart is doubling down on the insanity. shit is only going to get crazier from here.

and the ads may have better production values

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51JZRWFnKLL.jpg

producted, written and directed by bannon

chryon: The Undefeated (she's not)

Ah, but her spirit has not been defeated!

Even if Trump surrounded himself with a top-notch team with decades of experience in running a presidential campaign, he'd still do and say whatever the fuck he wanted and lose just as gloriously. As we've seen every single day since the conventions ended, Trump's biggest problem is Trump. You can't trump Trump.

(it has xp)

re: last night's speech, somebody liked it: https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/765937809144373248

haha i forgot all about that movie's existence, can't say i've seen it tho

what is that line of stuff running off into the horizon on the poster...?

xp

oil pipeline?

is that a movie about three sarah palins who band together

Key tweet to keep in mind, I think

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/765919799046275072

lmao http://thehill.com/policy/national-security/291700-trump-before-intelligence-briefing-i-dont-trust-intelligence

stopped clock i suppose

"three sarah palins agree"

the problem with trump is that what got him here won't allow him to win, and he can't run a measured, capable campaign because he is neither measured nor capable, nor is he intelligent enough on the topics that hillary can school him on since she's been steeped in politics in various ways for years. maybe they'll try a large-scale version of like when they taught sarah palin how to pronounce "Ahmadinejad" before her first veep debate.

maybe they can just teach trump two or three words

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwDcjyJIv04

ned: also this one https://twitter.com/costareports/status/765808339573932032. he's like fuck it let's have fun and make money, and someone figured out the moronic language to use to be picked as the person to run that.

nate silver last night (i.e. before the appointments):

The tricky thing for Trump is that you can’t make those 7 or 8 points up in a day. Or a week. Or maybe not even a month. You can chip away at them a little bit and then hope to get lucky in the debates or because the polls were a little bit off to begin with.

But if Trump starts trying to throw Hail Marys in August, it could just make matters worse. And if the campaign thinks the polls are skewed and makes that Ailes-ish, Hannity-ish mistake of confusing the views of a vocal minority for those of the majority, they’re probably screwed.

"probably"

i have 2016 presidential election thread fatigue otherwise i'd poll who is going to win what of potus, house + senate. atm i'm thinking it might actually be a clean sweep?

i've been seeing the interesting point that the downside of gerrymandering is that it gives you majorities in more districts but at the cost of making those majorities shallow and more susceptible to wave elections since you only need say +5 to flip the district instead of what it might've been without gerrymandering like +15.

remember when bernie sanders was "the only candidate who can beat donald trump"

the only risk is that trump somehow gets disciplined and starts running a more conventional campaign

even if he does at this point, would it matter? he's strongly disliked by a majority of the country and I highly doubt you can get too many of those people to change their minds.

remember when bernie sanders was "the only candidate who can beat donald trump"

no

remember when bernie sanders was "the only candidate who can beat donald trump"

in shuffleboard, maybe

atm i'm thinking it might actually be a clean sweep?

Dems might have been able to take the House if the DNC had planned ahead for that and gotten candidates fielded in every competitive District (instead of focusing on Bernie/primary fight), now there's going to be a fair amount of lost opportunities, and a House majority seems p unlikely to me.

Nobody can beat Donald Trump like Donald Trump.

shakey fwiw this article makes the case that it could happen:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/16/it-might-be-time-for-republicans-to-start-worrying-about-their-house-majority/

old old news but new to me: Ivanka Trump's ex boyfriend is Maroon 5 bassist Bingo Gubelmann

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3595517/Ivanka-Trump-s-ex-boyfriend-Bingo-Gubelmann-Manhattan-cocaine-bust-Maroon-5-bassist.html

er "is Bingo Gubelmann" not Maroon 5 bassist
but what could have been

xps Boils down to this:

If Republicans lost all 36 of those seats with a PVI of R +5 or lower — and Democrats held all 11 of their contested seats — Democrats have the House majority. By six seats. Twenty-seven of those 40 seats have a PVI of R+3 or lower. Win those 27 and Democrats need to pick up only three seats among the slightly more Republican-friendly districts to win the majority.

My instinct is that the R+5s are a huge stretch and would require focused money and good candidates. R+3s seem more likely to just…happen.

remember when bernie sanders was "the only candidate who can beat donald trump"

― esempiu (crüt), Wednesday, August 17, 2016 1:51 PM (5 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Too many clickbait articles to possibly remember them all

It occurs to me that the rise and fall of Donald Trump could pose as an object lesson to his supporters in maybe stopping to look at the man in the mirror if one's general inclination is to blame other people for failing at life. Operative word being 'could' because it'll never happen.

My instinct is that the R+5s are a huge stretch and would require focused money and good candidates

otm. Money might be there for some of them, but probably not all, and the "good candidates" part is the real problem

what is that line of stuff running off into the horizon on the poster...?

xp

― Οὖτις, Wednesday, August 17, 2016 6:33 PM (15 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

probably a reference to the controversial northern gateway pipeline that sarah palin is pushing for

it would cross through british columbia and reach a hub in alaska

Bingo Gubelmann

I mean like

this is just the best election ever

Funniest possible things to say during moment of climax.

two hundred german-american legends

thank you for not letting the moment pass jclc
i was similarly agog

this is just the best election ever

as funny as that play Lincoln was watching

also part of that story:
BINGO GUBELMANN produced the documentary 'Born Rich', which is about what you think it's about and stars Ivanka and is up on YouTube here:
http://tinyurl.com/q7mqpal
and for when embeds come back:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8o46HH-TfNY

ivanka starts at 10.05

caek linked to this tweet above:

Actual Giuliani quote about Trump's speech last night:

"I think this is the best speech that any Republican, at the least, has ever given."

Ever heard of the Gettysburg Address, Rudy?