I DON'T KNOW WHERE THE BOTTOM IS • US presidential elections part VIII

Cohen reminds me of a schlubby character from sitcom/pop culture so badly but I can't remember who

he reminds me of ross

Ross + Hank Kingsley

dudes i got it it was ted from scrubs

but yes to ross and hank too

god rip garry shandling you could have made an amazing sitcom based on the Trump campaign

Was thinking of Barry Zuckerkorn myself

re: that Mr. Brexit thing, an FB comment from a friend-of-a-friend:

I have become something of a Trump whisperer. I think I know what he meant.

In the weeks prior to the Brexit vote, almost all the polls had the "Stay" side up by 1 - 3 points. But the actual vote came out with the "Leave" side winning by 4 points.

So I think Trump means like the Brexit leave vote, he is being under counted in the polls, and on election day he will pull of a surprise upset win that will stun the world.

Interesting analogy. Only differences are he is down an average of 6 - 7 points nationwide, 6 - 9 points in crucial battleground states he must win, this is America not Britain and every other thing.

I wonder how Trump orders a sandwich vs. how he makes one vs. how he describes the quality of the result in either scenario

Or, hell, maybe he meant Mr. Breakfast.

http://orangeandgray.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/tumblr_lqpz963v1H1qmhwqfo1_500_large.jpg

When initially asked about Brexit in an interview, Trump didn't know what the interviewer was even talking about. So I think he actually meant it more like "They will soon be calling me MR. HUH? HMM."

xp
that must be it. no surprise that his dominant takeaway from Brexit has to do with polling

Dr Drew now commenting on Hillary's health - right-wingers conflating "America's most trusted physician" tag as some kind of actual ranking.

http://gawker.com/why-1785443112

I'm not committing myself until we hear from *all* the experts. Why has Doctor Demento remained silent?

Dr Dre took off his headphones and confirmed "we remain concerned", while Eminem appeared somber in the background

Donald Trump’s Strange New Attack On Hillary Clinton Echoes White Supremacists

In a major foreign policy speech on Monday, which offered few details and many inaccuracies, GOP nominee Donald Trump attacked his Democratic opponent’s stance on immigration and refugees by comparing her to the chancellor of Germany. “Hillary Clinton wants to be America’s Angela Merkel,” he said.

He fired off two press releases that same day calling Clinton “America’s Merkel,” and took to Twitter to warn of the dangers of #AmericasMerkel.

The line of attack “baffled” political analysts, who wondered why Trump would possibly think referencing a largely-unknown European leader would help him win votes in the United States. A Pew survey last year found that “Germany is not on the radar of many Americans,” with more than a third reporting “no opinion” of Merkel at all.

But there is at least one group of Americans well familiar with Merkel, her immigration policies, and her connections to Hillary Clinton: white supremacists.

To white nationalist communities that fervently support Trump, Merkel has been a popular villain. Sites like the Daily Stormer, the White Genocide Project, American Renaissance, and The White Resister have posted constantly about her since the Syrian refugee crisis began escalating earlier this year. They have accused her of making a “deliberate attempt to turn Germany from a majority White country into a minority White country.” They have called her a “crazy childless bitch,” “Anti-White Traitor,” and “patron saint of terrorists.” They have asked in articles about her, “Why would you allow a woman to run a country, unless you were doing it as a joke?”

The Trump campaign itself is a joke, but this shit really, really worries me.

Drew Linzer's forecast is out!

Minnesota Hillary Clinton 87% Donald Trump 13% LEAN D

what threshold do you have to cross to go from LEAN to LIKELY because this seems silly

xp: I'd like to say I was surprised by that but... I'm not

As noted, most uninformed Americans probably have no idea who Merkel is, and I'd wager that most Americans who are aware of Merkel are likely to have a largely positive view of her (I'd happily swap her out with Clinton, honestly). So, yeah, he's catering his message to a very particular audience. Piece of shit.

The line of attack “baffled” political analysts, who wondered why Trump would possibly think referencing a largely-unknown European leader would help him win votes in the United States.

Crazy that Angela Merkel could be described as a 'largely-unknown European leader'.

(xp) ha, OK.

My main info point on Merkel is a borderline socialist friend of mine in Berlin who thinks she is absolutely terrible.

She's, uh, not very popular in the Greece.

http://cdn1.theweek.co.uk/sites/theweek/files/styles/16x8_990/public/athens-merkel-poster-0910.jpg?itok=r4a6nrWP

the Greece? Sorry, channelling Flann O'Brien there.

I won't link to another 538 piece on how poorly Trump's doing, but I love this sentence: "How do we know that the rest of the electorate isn’t craving a Trumpier Trump?" A Trumpier Trump might be too Trumpy for even his Trumpiest supporters.

I regularly read news publications with an international focus but I'd guess that I'm an outlier among my American brethren. Merkel seems like one of the most sober European (and possibly world) leaders atm.

Just from hearing the mentions of Merkel in US press I'd imagine to an American she comes across as a tough operator, mainly because of the Greece situation

She runs a tight ship. Italy's been trying to flaunt EU regulations and initiate a public bailout of their failing banks but she's been one of the louder protest voices.

Crazy that Angela Merkel could be described as a 'largely-unknown European leader'.

For even the average "likely voter," my guess is that that is a fair if depressing characterization.

the average voter might think she was on "Family Matters."

Google did not disappoint.

http://ih0.redbubble.net/image.187884428.5979/raf,750x1000,075,t,fafafa:ca443f4786.u7.jpg

Cruz's refusal to endorse looking more and more like a canny, foresighted tactic.

Or a really obvious move that anyone with half a brain could have come up with.

It's not like who Trump is should have been a mystery to anyone! Dude has spent an inordinate amount of time spreading his odiousness across American media and is mostly famous for being a sketchy ass; I don't think you have to be Nostradamus to predict that supporting his run for President would be disastrously stupid.

sure - but the vast majority of Republicans in office haven't done it, and it was definitely a bucking of party orthodoxy (granted this is something Cruz has never shied away from)

so as a political maneuver it sets him apart from the pack of morons

I strongly suspect he'll be blamed by a large percentage of Republicans (by Trump supporters, obviously, but above and beyond)--lumped in with the media, pollsters--not credited. Maybe he's safe in Texas, but I can't ever see him getting anywhere nationally again.

Cruz's gamble is that Trump's implosion will take down a bunch of the existing establishment guys/structure who went along w Trump and opposed Cruz - leaving him in a stronger position as the "true" conservative

I don't really see how any in the GOP could credibly blame Cruz for Trump's loss

It's basic hubris. Republicans thought they could corral and control Trump and turn him into a puppet for their policies, completely against the bald evidence of a) how he ran his primary campaign, and b) virtually every single thing the man has done in his life in the public eye. They basically thought, "we're smart, we can totally manipulate him into doing our bidding" without paying attention either to how their control techniques actually play with personalities like Trump's (they don't) or what the constituency they've built actually wants from a candidate (a boorishly offensive buffoon).

Texas Republican's aren't happy with Cruz

http://www.mystatesman.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/texas-republicans-prefer-donald-trump-and-rick-per/nsHFM/

Texas Republicans supported U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in the March primary, but they now prefer Donald Trump to Cruz as their party’s presidential nominee, and they would prefer former Gov. Rick Perry over Cruz in a potential Senate matchup in 2018, according to a Public Policy Polling survey released Wednesday.

Half of Texas Republicans said they would like Cruz to be their party’s Senate nominee in 2018, but 43 percent said they would prefer someone else. Presented with the alternative of Perry, just 37 percent supported Cruz.

The survey of 944 likely voters — including 522 Republican voters — conducted Friday through Sunday showed that Cruz’s failed presidential run and his refusal to endorse Trump at the Republican National Convention last month have hurt him with the party faithful.

Not that I have any idea how true conservatives think, but to me the best way to approach Trump was the I'll Vote for Him but Won't Endorse (and obviously have thinly disguised contempt for him) tack taken by Ryan and many others. Four years down the road, I think they'll be seen as party loyalists who did the best they could in an impossible situation. Reporters will continue to ask them how they could ever vote for someone they held in contempt, but within their own party, I think they'll be understanding (and more than that, a desire to forget the whole nightmare).

Cruz will be seen within the party as a guy who engaged in self-serving theatrics on a national stage.

"was"--I guess that should be "is." There's still an election.

I don't really see how any in the GOP could credibly blame Cruz for Trump's loss

― Οὖτις, Thursday, August 18, 2016 11:08 AM (8 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

OTM. Once the dust settles, hardcore Trumpists are the only ones among the GOP who won't be seething with rage over everything Trump cost them (particularly since, at that point, there will no longer be any political reason to pretend that they support or like the man). But, like Trump, they'll need to do some self-reflection and consider who's really to blame for the current state of affairs.

hillary

DJP otm

https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/766249028606652417

Trump has no attention span. He cannot absorb information or think. He can't strategize, he has a few moves and that's it. Stop overthinking

Analogies are never precise, but I still find '64 instructive: Nixon the party loyalist was rewarded (which admittedly had as much to do with his off-year campaigning in '66), Rockefeller wasn't.

But, like Trump, they'll need to do some self-reflection and consider who's really to blame for the current state of affairs.

So who will get the blame then? Republicans were supposed to do some sober self-reflection after 2008 and 2012, too. In 2016, they nominated Donald Trump.

I'm not saying Cruz is going to get the bulk of the blame or anything, just that he'll be lumped in with a thousand other excuses the party will make.

They'll blame the lame stream media, like they always do.

I guess, yeah, in general the GOP is becoming the party of whiny blamers. Wah wah wah, this person wronged me and that person wronged me and we don't get what we want because of those people. No real fucking agency or ownership. There are plenty of people for them to jab their impotent little fingers at.