I DON'T KNOW WHERE THE BOTTOM IS • US presidential elections part VIII

I'm increasingly inclined to believe that a sizable percentage of "Trump supporters" are just super low-info voters who mechanically vote R and know next-to-nothing about the dude except that he was a game show host.

I suppose I could or should have said explicitly that the retreat into white identity politics is a response to the rise of Left identity politics.

"the rise of left identity politics" = "the civil rights movement"

goole seems otm. thiel as bellwether a good call -- conveniently our new generation of intellectual-superman barons, provided they're supported by a global supply chain i don't see the american electorate managing to destroy, doesn't rly need a lot of labor to begin with.

Many of them likely know that he speaks candidly and not like a wooden politician and almost nothing else, I'm sure.

So the "he tells it like it is" can ignore whether "it is" true or "it is" racist or "it is" coherent or "it is" consistent with what "it was" a few days or hours or minutes ago.

xp

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CqK16oJVIAAzzlg.jpg

LOL A+

yeah um.... I'm not sure it's going to be just a matter of GOP business types (not to mention the range of religious conservatives who are maybe a little complicated/not unitary on this issue, and still a big part of the coalition) just getting over their little problem with immigration. like aside from the fact that the "0% / much lower" thing would, indeed, be a matter of monstrous bruality that could never be practically implemented (nor would people stand for it at the massive scale required SWAT teams and ICE raids by the millions, not the hundreds, dragging families apart, etc...). it would also, from the business establishment point of view, break the domestic economy in pieces if actually implemented. maybe not such a big deal if all you do for money is move global supply chains around in a spreadsheet, but let's not overstate the corporate whiz kid class's role here... your bread-and-butter rotary club mid-sized-city business republican is not necessarily going to be on board with this, or not in the same way. nor are they, i think, on board with trump - they wanted jeb, or kasich, or something.

and anyway it's an ideological problem: if the establishment is committed to neoliberal free trade as the present and future of capitalism, they can't plausibly make just this one exception even if they want to, nor would the trumpist base really accept it if they stopped there. there's a serious conflict of ideas here that i don't think could or would be papered over by the elites just holding their noses on "immigration" as if it's just one little side issue interrupting what would otherwise be harmony with the trumpists. you can pull it off if you're pat buchanan and nativism is your core brand (with the other generic republican values stapled on); i don't think you can do it if you're mitt romney or whoever. basically the only version that works is the establishment people being the candidates, and paying vague lip service to nativist sentiment and "keeping jobs in ohio" while continuing to actually implement neoliberal economics. if trumpism solidifies as a funcitoning bloc strong enough to keep nominating people, it will make more sense for the business class to vote for clintonesque democrats, hold them strongly rightward (or accept that they have to give up some compromise crumbs to domestic progressivism), and let the nativists become a (t)rump party.

xxpost lolll

I was just out and about and some 40-something dude is downtown holding a garden trellis festooned with Trump/Pence signs and waving at traffic. MAKE AMERICA WEAR AVIATORS AGAIN

i don't think you can do it if you're mitt romney or whoever. basically the only version that works is the establishment people being the candidates, and paying vague lip service to nativist sentiment and "keeping jobs in ohio" while continuing to actually implement neoliberal economics. if trumpism solidifies as a funcitoning bloc strong enough to keep nominating people, it will make more sense for the business class to vote for clintonesque democrats, hold them strongly rightward (or accept that they have to give up some compromise crumbs to domestic progressivism), and let the nativists become a (t)rump party.

yes i think that's true -- paradoxically the combo of business-friendly clintonist dems and immigration-friendly plutocrats like the kochs are a huge complicating factor in this scenario. like i said, the donors have to get sick of democratic presidencies.

i think there are a range of immigrant-unfriendly policies that could be implemented that are far short of total removal of 11m people. i mean, obama is doing so!

sure - but clearly those are not enough for the "build a wall" types!

from that jonah goldberg article!

This points to the fact that the designation “white” came into existence as the cultural and political opposite of “black” at a time when being black invoked either slavery or Jim Crow. In this context, white isn’t really an ethnicity so much as an ideological construct about racial superiority.

i guess this concept has been fully assimilated into the culture, or jonah has somehow escaped velocity from the conservative mainstream

when i read this article it makes me feel like there were conservatives that didn't realize what their party was about. it doesn't speak very highly to their intelligence (or it speaks very well of their ability to self-delude) but i think many are actually sincerely repulsed by the GOP's transformation into an explicitly white nativist racism party.

^^^ Someone from a conservative think tank responded to that extensive Natalie Reed tweetstorm above acknowledging this (although I think there's a lot of disingenous "Who knew?" going on right now):

Kevin Glass ‏@KevinWGlass
@nataliereed84 My response as someone who played into it: me & "GOP elites" did not buy the explanation that racial animus drove much.

Kevin Glass ‏@KevinWGlass
@nataliereed84 that yes, the GOP had a bunch of racists, but whatever racial undertones of prominent rhetoric were overimagined by the Left.

Kevin Glass ‏@KevinWGlass
@nataliereed84 Trump has proven us wrong! Left critics of the Right were correct. We were wrong.

more like stink tank amirite

the kids are calling it "stank"

This is why the Left’s discrediting of assimilation is so dangerous and saddening. The Left goes around insisting that non-whites shouldn’t be expected to assimilate into “white culture.” Some even say they can’t. And, guess what? The white nationalist agrees! And the irony is that when the white nationalist agrees, the Left screams “racist!” And they’re right. The problem is the Left can’t see how identity politics is, at least in its purer forms, just as racist.

also these ppl don't actually understand the left. there's maybe an anti-imperialism left that has failed to square the circle btwn 'third world nationalism is good' and 'assimilated universalism is good', but even they are a minor part of the left. maybe i'm wrong but my impression is that 95% of americans who fall on the left side of the spectrum (ie not leftists v. liberals which is not a distinction i think jonah uses) believe in some of salad bowl metaphor for america - a melting pot where everyone shares the same democratic values but keeps a little bit of heritage for flavor. the ppl on the left who say that non-white groups can never be assimilated into american culture are the hardest of the hard left. it would be like talking about what right-wingers believe and saying that they all believe #whitegenocide is happening right now, except that my guess is that a much larger percentage of the republican party believes that than the democratic party believes in the incompatibility of non-whites with the broader culture.

personally i prefer the cholent metaphor bc salad components are too easily disambiguated. cholent tho you're obviously getting a stew where every flavor participates in every other flavor and there's like potato in the broth and meat in the potato and beans in the meat but also you can still make out that these were once different things so it's a nice reminder of the rich tapestry of humanity food.

yeah I think the broader definition of "assimilation" in use by the left has more to do with civic duties/roles/functions (working, paying taxes, voting, respecting rights of others etc.) and basically nothing to do with culture (language, media, food etc.). The left supports the former and does not see the latter as important.

xp

whereas Jonah can't separate the cultural from the civic

Perino isn't having Bolling's stupid anecdotal horseshit: http://www.redstate.com/jaycaruso/2016/08/18/eric-bolling-dismisses-polling-data-citing-trump-crowds-dana-perino-incredulous/?utm_content=buffer53945&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

re the crowd sizes i haven't seen anyone say this but i think large crowds can counterintuitively be indicative of an actual lack of support. ppl who feel like their message or identity hasn't been represented until this pt are more likely to be enthusiastic about coming out to support someone who is finally speaking directly to them. but the reason they have had to wait so long is often bc their beliefs do not have enough currency to be mainstream. the candidate representing the average mores of broader society will get broad support, but there's no reason to be particularly enthusiastic about someone speaking on the hegemonic wavelength.

I think crowd support is indicative of enthusiasm and nothing more. Reading more into it than that seem suspect. There are many reasons why people might be enthusiastic enough about a candidate to go to an event.

Its like Charlie Sheen : "I was there when he said Hilary was like Hitler but less healthy"

Trump's back in the game!

WASHINGTON (AP) — A new brain trust in place, Donald Trump on Thursday moved to invest nearly $5 million in battleground state advertising as the Republican presidential contender took modest steps to address daunting challenges in the states that will make or break his White House ambitions.

The New York businessman's campaign reserved television ad space over the coming 10 days in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to Kantar Media's political ad tracker. While Democrat Hillary Clinton has spent more than $75 million on advertising in 10 states since locking up her party's nomination, Trump's new investment marks his first of the general election season.

Election Day is 81 days away, with early voting in the first states set to begin in five weeks.

The step into swing-state advertising, which came after Trump's second staffing shake-up in as many months, did little to alleviate the concerns of Republican officials frustrated with Trump's refusal to adopt the tools of modern-day political campaigns.

"We may have reached the point of no return for Donald Trump," said Republican strategist Alex Conant, a senior aide to Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's presidential campaign.

Re: Crowd size and anecdote, this was Peggy Noonan the day before the 2012 Election:

"Romney’s crowds are building—28,000 in Morrisville, Pa., last night; 30,000 in West Chester, Ohio, Friday. It isn’t only a triumph of advance planning: People came, they got through security and waited for hours in the cold..."

"There is no denying the Republicans have the passion now, the enthusiasm. The Democrats do not. Independents are breaking for Romney. And there’s the thing about the yard signs. In Florida a few weeks ago I saw Romney signs, not Obama ones. From Ohio I hear the same. From tony Northwest Washington, D.C., I hear the same."

"Is it possible this whole thing is playing out before our eyes and we’re not really noticing because we’re too busy looking at data on paper instead of what’s in front of us? Maybe that’s the real distortion of the polls this year: They left us discounting the world around us."

"And there is Obama, out there seeming tired and wan, showing up through sheer self discipline... Of all people, Obama would know if he is in trouble. When it comes to national presidential races, he is a finely tuned political instrument: He read the field perfectly in 2008. He would know if he’s losing now, and it would explain his joylessness on the stump. He is out there doing what he has to to fight the fight. But he’s still trying to fire up the base when he ought to be wooing the center and speaking their calm centrist talk. His crowds haven’t been big. His people have struggled to fill various venues."

Noonan is such a moron

remember how passionate ppl were about romney lol

the Passion of Mittens

My favorite line: "I think he’s stealing in 'like a thief with good tools,' in Walker Percy’s old words."

Xxxxxpost on that poll that has MN as "lean" Democratic, ah yes every four years MN is the "swing state" that hasn't gone Republican since 72 and a whopping 3 times since 1932 including going for Mondale

It'll take a while, but it's worth reading this thread from 4 years back, thinking of Noonan et al:

The Choice of a New Denigration: the US Election Day 2012 Thread

Amazing how nearly every GOP doof quoted therein learned nothing from it, based on this year.

Meanwhile:

Donald J. Trump’s support among white men, the linchpin of his presidential campaign, is showing surprising signs of weakness that could foreclose his only remaining path to victory in November.

If not reversed, the trend could materialize into one of the most unanticipated developments of the 2016 presidential campaign: That Hillary Clinton, the first woman at the head of a major party ticket and a divisive figure unpopular with many men, ends up narrowing the gender gap that has been a constant of American presidential elections for decades.

Surveys of voters nationwide and in battleground states conducted over the last two weeks showed that Mr. Trump was even with or below where Mitt Romney, the Republican Party nominee four years ago, was with white men when he won that demographic by an overwhelming 27 percentage points.

For Mr. Trump, who has staked much of his legitimacy as a candidate on his strength in the polls, the numbers are a dose of cold, dangerous math. If he does not perform any better than Mr. Romney did with white men, he will almost certainly be unable to rally the millions of disaffected white voters he says will propel him to the White House.

Hillary is running ads during the Olympics - I have never seen a Democratic campaign ad in Texas (back to '92) so this is a weird new world.

I guess they could just be national spots that happen to be showing up around here, but it's still new.

I've seen them too so they are probably nationwide since there is zero reason to target California.

from that thread

this djp comment has come to mind many times over the last 4 years

Lol

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump
He lost the popular vote by a lot and won the election. We should have a revolution in this country!
― Mordy, Tuesday, November 6, 2012 10:21 PM (3 years ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Gathering from Twitter Trump actually made apologies in his speech today. Also gathering most think he's reading something Kellyanne Conway wrote for him.

I think he'd say anything to shore up his teetering support here in North Carolina.

Unfortunately, diapers are expensive so I haven't been doing micro donations this go-round.

Actually I did give a little money to Feingold's campaign after disparaging his terrible fundraising email and the feeling bad about it.

Every time Morbs pissed me off on these threads, I gave Obama money, usually $19.

The last email I got from the Obama campaign said I had donated $441 dollars

― banana hammock unitard (DJP), Wednesday, 7 November 2012

I've often thought of this too, and I hope they spent every crucial cent of it in Massachusetts!

I applaud your support of Feingold, DJP.

Watched A Face in the Crowd today for the first time in years. Absolutely required viewing this year. Patricia Neal: "How does it feel saying whatever comes into your head and being able to sway people?"

Kathryn Jean Lopez ‏@kathrynlopez
if this is where we are, prepare for some tough back to fundamentals years. we had to get back to them anyway.

― Mordy, Wednesday, 7 November 2012 04:21 (3 years ago) Permalink

Mordy otm about crowd sizes.

Last couple of Election Day 2012 threads are pretty ace imho, with unskewed polls guy, Karl Rove's meltdown, that crazy ranting Romney supporter's youtube, the whole deal. I am also really fond of the Robotman thread title and the exchange that prompted it, such an "only on ILX" kinda moment, <3 you all.

nro watchers: what has k-lo been upto this election? i'm guessing totally checked out and insane rambling about jesus

i scrolled down her twitter past fifty religious tweets and some photos of clouds and realized it was over the course of only a couple days, i can't speak to what she was tweeting about last week.

nro watchers: what has k-lo been upto this election? i'm guessing totally checked out and insane rambling about jesus

― Mordy, Thursday, August 18, 2016 10:26 PM (

NRO has been consistently un-crazy this season whenever Andrew McCarthy isn't posting.