I DON'T KNOW WHERE THE BOTTOM IS • US presidential elections part VIII

Liked this response to those tweets earlier: https://twitter.com/beautypill/status/766407400869990401

re. Merkel in the USA : my wife has a bunch of bitter clingin' fb friends who've been posting foxxnews stories about Merkel all summer. so trump knows his audience. fwiw these fb friends (all women) each say they're sitting out the election because both choices disgust them.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/poll-trump-clinton-who-is-winning-227160

Oy vey, you guys...up 4?

I'm pretty sure there's a dozen "don't freak out over one poll" articles around.

bad news iago - i don't think yr boy trump is gonna pull this one out :(

Hey look, Trump made an ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3mKzYPt0Bu4

The tone isn't actually that different from those fake ads from the Triumph bit

Disappointed he didn't narrate it himself. Also disappointed that Bruce McGill was willing to take the gig (that sounds like him, anyway).

Eventually the ads will just be alternating pictures of the candidates with the narrator saying "Trump good. Hillary bad" for the full 30 seconds

@costareports
SCOOP: A close friend of Manafort tells me he has resigned

Presumably he's off to Syria to work for Assad or something

the "pivot" begins
― The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, August 19, 2016

Caught just a tiny bit of his grovelling, mea culpa speech last night. Once you take the circus out of him, he's just so boring...which is probably what they need, even though I think it's way too late.

Manafort officially resigns

Lewandowski back by this time next week?

time for roger ailes to shine

Have there been any other major party nominees who've gone through campaign managers like underwear (I feel it's safe to assume that Trump has only changed his underwear three times in the past year)?

he doesn't change underwear, underwear changes him

https://twitter.com/AndreaChalupa/status/766638363038322689

On Monday night, I heard from a source that Manafort is now under federal investigation. This is why he likely resigned, not the shake-up.

Not 100% sure I trust a writer named "Andrea Chalupa" but there you go.

He sounds tired and kinda drunk in that "i regret it" clip

They finally flushed his pills.

Trump apparently to visit Louisiana tomorrow, Obama hasn't visited yet (though the governor is fine with that, as a presidential visit is a lot of hassle)

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/john-bel-edwards-trump-louisiana-visit-227194

There is a chance for Trump to look vaguely concerned here, though whether he'd either pitch in or contribute something would be interesting - I could definitely see his horror of spending money on other people winning out.

Also lol @ the video of "Trump arrives in Louisana" that I saw having a banner of "Manafort resigns".

re. Merkel in the USA

Miley's political turn remains underrated

I predict Trump goes to Louisiana and praises the noble flood victims for not looting stores like the you-know-whos

Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards' office said Trump had not called to discuss plans to visit, but that the New York businessman was welcome to volunteer or make a sizable donation toward helping victims.

"We welcome him to (Louisiana), but not for a photo op," the statement said. "Instead we hope he'll consider volunteering or making a sizable donation to the LA Flood Relief Fund to help the victims of this storm."

Yeah... we'll see.

he's going to promise a bunch of money and then not deliver

He's going to build a roof over Louisiana.

He's still gonna eat KFC there instead of Popeye's.

gross

I'm waiting for Cohen to weigh in on Manafort's resignation.

So, it WAS a shakeup.

Says who?

News outlets.

Which ones?

All of them. Manafort is out.

So?

updated: http://cookpolitical.com/senate/charts/race-ratings

That man is the very act of someone flipping you the bird as they use a turn only lane to go straight personified.

xp

Don't usually see cable news, but shots of Obama golfing against flooding in LA both bad visual and creepy déjà vu.

don't cry, Pat

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2016/08/19/us/19DOWNBALLOTjp2/19DOWNBALLOTjp2-master768.jpg

updated: http://cookpolitical.com/senate/charts/race-ratings

I don't see how the Feingold-Johnson race isn't "Lean D"

please god let rubio somehow lose to complete his political humiliation

I do think the whole Louisiana situation at present in terms of approach was a pretty poor own goal on the part of Obama et al, and I haven't liked it. It's been the first canny thing Trump's team has done in a while, though it was more a case of them exploiting the optics well after the fact.

Sargent makes an interesting comparison in today's WaPo that hadn't previously occurred to me (obviously Wilson was a savvier political operator than Trump and v different in a lot of ways but still):

Fun, revealing footnote: The new Trump ad, like the one he ran during the GOP primaries, has unmistakable parallels with the immigration ad that GOP Governor Pete Wilson ran in California in the mid 1990s that also depicted our borders overrun with dark hordes. As E.J. Dionne reports in his book on American conservatism, some Republicans see eerie parallels between the California GOP’s decline amid a failure to adapt to the state’s ongoing demographic changes, and the national party’s current failure to adapt to similar demographic changes sweeping the whole country — not to mention the impact they are having on national elections.

xpost -- This is worth reading and considering, for instance.

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/trump-on-the-bayou/

Governator anomaly aside, Prop 187 basically destroyed the GOP in this state

xp

xpost -- This is worth reading and considering, for instance.

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/trump-on-the-bayou/

― Ned Raggett,

I agree that Obama should have been there offering the symbolic emollients that are presidential specialties, but I scowl at the idea that many Clinton-leaning voters are suddenly voting for Trump because he showed up.

Rod Dreher is always wrong. He's Bill Kristol + Jesus.

I see it less as suddenly changing minds as it is shoring up support -- which is what I think the last week has been about. Even small moves are moves. And if you don't think there's going to be an ad with this finally making the rounds now they say they ARE doing ad buys, well, color me surprised.

Mind you, I do love the crassness here, and I hope someone has THIS on video too:

https://twitter.com/reluctantzealot/status/766617092426698752

It just adds free fuel to lazy anti Obama fire. "See, he's as bad as Bush!!!'

please god let rubio somehow lose to complete his political humiliation

― carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries),

he's not gonna lose it looks like

:(

baffling. Dude is a total nullity with zero accomplishments.

and a demonstrated total lack of interest in his job

florida.. so much to answer for..

one of the two times I was in miami I chatted up some angry republican cuban guy at the hotel bar.. on the way home I saw an awesome billboard at the airport criticizing obama for bowing down before the saudi king.. kind of like this one

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/news/national-govt-politics/pac-pastes-blunt-message-on-anti-obama-billboards-/nSpdG/

that same billboard appeared about 5 miles from me. I used to get so angry driving by it.

there was a "WHERE'S THE BIRTH CERTIFICATE?" billboard near the intersection of two major highways in north dallas (75 and 635) for years and years. even after the long form cert was produced. i think it was finally replaced maybe 1-2 years ago?