I DON'T KNOW WHERE THE BOTTOM IS • US presidential elections part VIII

Really, the worst thing that could happen to the GOP would be if they got the idea 'ANYONE could beat her'. That means once again 15+ candidates with a healthy dose of nut jobs in there.

which seems like a likely scenario

A key problem here for 2020 is the assumption that the GOP as a more uniform and generally understood voting bloc will simply reconstitute -- an assumption I really don't buy at present. All current rumblings about a purported Trump TV and Fox fearful of its right flank translates into a conservative media impulse that would be fully at war with itself to some degree, especially if a Trump TV audience manifests as a quasi-political force. That may seem extreme -- and I don't mean it in a sense of them fielding candidates -- but the internal 'no YOU'RE the RINO, you cuck' back and forths already part and parcel of the whole thing will just become institutionalized in full, putting pressure on all kinds of primary options, local and federal. Candidates will presumably want to appeal to all sides within the internecine warfare somehow, and after the primaries all the other side has to do in the general is go "So hey you'll all be thrilled to learn my opponent sought the approval of these clowns -- or you would be thrilled to learn about it except you've already seen it for months." Absolutely none of this is new -- this is the story of the electoral process as a whole -- but it'll become institutionalized as noted, even MORE material will be generated, and this utter fucking slog of an electoral season will seem like a Canadian election cycle soon enough.

sounds like a deep bench to me guys. perhaps the best ever!

xp

heh

What if the rump GOP never gets its middle back, on a national level? Will a progressive (and funded) wing of the Democratic Party start trying to build its way towards being the second party? Will state GOPs start imploding?

i think republican downward slide will just get worse. 4 years from now there will be more millennial voters, more minority voters, and fewer old white people. there's no indication that they can keep their current coalition of big business and nativist racists together. plus, tenuous but hillary's approval ratings have gone up whenever she's held office. potus is totally different ballgame but i wouldn't write her off just bc of the current cycle.

Yeah I think Mordy's right. Maybe this is just wishful thinking but I don't know if the GOP can really recover from this.

a lot will depend on the economy. if there's a recession in 2019 and the republicans field someone with say mitt romney level appeal then id imagine they'll be back in the whitehouse

I don't know if the GOP can really recover from this

the GOP may suffer somewhat in down ballot races in 2016 bcz of trump, but they'll recover from that rather quickly. it's the presidency they will have a tough time capturing for the foreseeable future. (hint: the future is v hard to foresee.)

i think you're all underestimating the resilience of the 2 party system

the gop might just go through another spasm but manage to brand it as a separate entity like they got away with the 'tea party' like the tea partyers werent just hard right lunatics but something 'different'.

it's difficult to see how the GOP moves left on social issues (as they must) but ... nature finds a way

maybe. as noted they're doing fine at the state level, it's the national elections where they've hogtied themselves

she's going to be a one term president with no accomplishments except maybe a couple of supreme court nominations. sad!

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, September 2, 2016 3:02 PM (two hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Hmmn I see nothing to indicate that Republicans are going to be able to get their sh*t together by 2020 so I'm not sure that's a great bet.

― One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Friday, September 2, 2016 3:11 PM (one hour ago)

Maybe you're both right and she'll be primaried in 2020. I could see it happening.

by who? doubt Bernie will try again

Oh, she's definitely getting primaried in 2020. And Jeff Weaver will organize that campaign.

it's difficult to see how the GOP moves left on social issues (as they must)

historically, they do not move left, but simply allow their lost battles to fade away as they raise their banner over newer and more exciting reactionary issues. there will always be a good supply of reactionaries for them to rally. the boomers looked like the most radical leftist generation ever spawned in the USA... for about a decade and a half.

The GOP can't reconstitute itself away from nativism/racism and all the losing battles of social conservatism any time soon, angry old white people don't die off quickly enough.

it takes a) a huge party schism and b) a v powerful and attractive candidate for there to be a primary challenge to a sitting president. I don't see who the Dems have that would do that. Bernie's damaged (and old) goods, he won't do it again. I dunno who else in the party, that's popular, that would challenge Clinton like that. Warren won't do it.

xxp

the easy line against Fiorina is "remember how well it worked last time nominating a politically inexperienced leader of failed businesses"

― Οὖτις, Friday, September 2, 2016 4:40 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

re: this, it would have been true in the past, but it just seems like a naive west wing tv show argument now ("he's from the north east, he's a latino, he has health problems, etc.). the world has moved on from these kind of totally sensical and reasonable points grounded in reality.

I was going to guess Cenk Uygur, but turns out he was born in Turkey, so he probably can't do it. But I'll be surprised if nobody does a Huckabee/Carson campaign for the money and profile boost. Sanders inadvertently showed that there's a market for it.

There hasn't been a primary challenge to an incumbent president, on either side, since the 70s. It's highly unlikely to happen in 2020.

Just you wait and see :)

You aren't eligible to run Fred

Oh, dang. Forget that I said anything, then...

(xposts) Buchanan didn't win any primaries, but he won about a quarter of the vote in '92, caused a bit of panic when he got 40% in New Hampshire, and did well enough to deliver his cultural-war speech at the convention.

What the fuck is it with NH voters anyway

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrYkfz_VUAA27Lv.jpg

so i have questions for people doubting HRC's chances in 2020. which voting blocs are the GOP going to pick up? latinxs have been trending democratic since 2004 and while i think trump will represent the GOP's nadir, i expect romney's 2012 showing is closer to "normal". the electorate will be even less white than now, and unless the gop makes some fundamental policy and presentation changes (and risk alienating their base), they're not going to gain enough ground to have a majority coalition.

wtf you guys are so bored with this, the greatest election shitshow in living memory that you feel the need to jump to 2020 now?
http://img.pandawhale.com/95468-is-this-not-why-you-are-here-g-7gL5.gif

I think the GOP will need their own Barack Obama to flip states that have voted blue in the last 3 or 4 elections, otherwise it's Dem presidents from here on out.

lol remember when mccain 'suspended' his campaign

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrY4mPpWEAARy-X.jpg:small

is that patrick bateman?

y

but why

the original

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CrYv6hhXEAAh9wv.jpg:small

adbusters is barely trying. come on people!
http://gaia.adage.com/images/bin/image/jumbo/Adbusters_Trump_Cool_Fascismo2016081532.jpg

idk seems ok except for the font

I want to live in the world where the trump kids are considered cool

weird to me that don jr. doesn't have a manbun

if the gop were smart, they'd drop all the social/culture wars stuff and just stick with "fiscal conservatism" and "drill baby drill"

idk just a semblance of a thought

The base doesn't care about fiscal conservatism tho, as this election finally laid bare.

yeah it's basically all about bald nationalism, white identity shit, and get rich quick schemes at this point

If you think there's credence to the idea that Trump doesn't actually want to win, more fodder:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/09/02/trump-launches-new-personal-attacks-against-morning-joe-co-host-mika-brzezinski/

Here he is having--by the historically low bar he's set for himself--a good few days. The polls have crept a little back in his direction. So he resurrects this. Not that it hurts him with anyone already voting for him, but it's a bizarre and pointless media distraction three weeks before the debates.

also "drill baby drill" IS a culture war thing

The conversation has passed but I just want to throw out there that Carly Fiorina is so uniquely terrible that they couldn't find a single person on her donor list who worked for Hewlett Packard. She is/was so bad that no one who worked for her was willing to contribute to her campaign.

donald trump was so bad that the entire GOP donor class has rejected him and pretty much anyone who has done business with him is going on the record to say what a terrible experience it is. he's the nominee. no reason why fiorina couldn't be.