hall of fame, next vote...

Sabermetric analyses have shown that lineup "protection" is not statistically significant.

yeah votto seems like one of those guys who would at worst lose the power but maintain the average and high BB rate. for the HOF though he seems like potentially this generation's version of will clark (albeit far more of a comedian about his villainy)

― nomar, Wednesday, September 21, 2016 3:31 PM (eight months ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

sounds a little like Helton

― Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Wednesday, September 21, 2016 3:52 PM (eight months ago)

helton is the comp i most often think about with votto

votto's numbers are better despite being non-mile-high (not that gabp is petco, but still)

also he won an mvp

helton's peak might just edge votto's out, but votto will end up with the better career probably

the reds might be good in a few years, too. winning a WS or at least getting close + Votto being a reds lifer would help his HOF case, even though that's dumb

helton had a couple of WAR years that were 8+ and another one that was close, votto has had one that was 7+. but helton was basically done as a star player after he hit 30, his five-year run as a legit MVP candidate was his peak. votto is 33 and seems to be getting better in certain areas and is on pace for maybe his best season yet.

so here are the guys who are

a) holdovers with a decent enough shot at making the HOF.

or

b) newcomers with a reasonable shot. not included: guys like Berkman, Abreu, etc..

the only ones I'm certain about coming up are Jones, Thome, Rivera, and Jeter. with the holdovers, Hoffman and Guerrero, obviously. no idea on the others. can't tell if E-Mart has any decent momentum or if people will change their minds on Clemens, Bonds, and Schilling. Mussina might have a better chance than any of them, in the end.

it'll be interesting. in 2020 it's really just Jeter and no one else. in 2021 there are zero candidates that are worthy. unless you think Tim Hudson, Mark Buehrle, and Torii Hunter belong.

holdovers

Trevor Hoffman 3rd
Vladimir Guerrero 2nd
Edgar Martinez 9th
Roger Clemens 6th
Barry Bonds 6th
Mike Mussina 5th
Curt Schilling 6th
Manny Ramirez 2nd

2018

Chipper Jones
Jim Thome
Scott Rolen

2019

Andy Pettitte
Todd Helton
Roy Halladay
Mariano Rivera

2020

Derek Jeter

i don't wanna be alive for a HOF ceremony that's literally just jeter

good news, that might be the same year Schilling makes it

actually i think Ortiz will be eligible in 2021, so add him

Agree with most of those except Rolen and Pettitte. As always, I'm projecting, not offering an opinion on who deserves to go in.

it'll be sad when hoffman goes in because it'll open up the floodgates for a lot of other relievers

hoffman was only notable for the saves total and very few relievers will ever get the opportunities he got

Honestly, I don't think it will. My sense is that the bar has been set a little below Rivera. I don't think you can reasonably set the bar at Rivera, because you'd essentially be saying that's it for closers in the HOF. After Hoffman, I don't think you'll see another one seriously considered until that group of three I ran the poll on, probably Kimbrel if he stays healthy.

frankie rodriguez is #4 all time and he won't have a shot in hell

Pettitte *maybe* comes off better when the era is considered but not much better. he was consistently "good" but only 3 times in 18 seasons did he have a WAR above 4. i guess he may not have much of a shot after all, idk. Rolen is sort of the poor man's Beltre and may be forgotten for awhile. i think he has a reasonable shot only bc his rep among advanced metrics types is vv good but also he was the most forgettable HOF-possible player of recent memory. i'd rather have Larry Walker in than either of these guys, anyway.

Hoffman has tenure with one team, a (pretty minor tbh) reliever goatee, and Hell's Bells, and a counting stat that means jack shit. so he'll clear 85% next time around.

Walker's only at 15% in this sixth year, and (even though it's not so clear-cut with him) he's got the Coors albatross around him, but I think he's going to be taken up as a cause at some point, like Blyleven and Raines. If he only has 10 years on the ballot, time may run out on him, but I don't know, I'm still confident he'll get in. My own opinion is that he belongs in there.

JAWs has him 10th among right fielders, he's close to the average HOF'er on black ink, less close on gray ink, clears the bar on HOF Monitor and Standards, and four of his ten comps are in the HOF (six of ten if you add Cabrera and Guerrero--all ten have a similarity score under 900, though, making him a somewhat unique player).

rolen would absolutely take a blyleven-level campaign to get in. edmonds too

edmonds already fell off with 2.5% of the ballot in year one

o lol

edgar's gonna make it, though it may require a deadline to concentrate ppls' minds

chipper and thome and rivera and halladay for sure

get back to me on helton when the veterans committee votes in kenny lofton

but at least trevor hoffman will be getting in, who can forget his memorable song

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esuQ_6oiDkw

vs this hall of very good bollocks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56f4xH4ZoEM

Just a theory--you'd have to study this to see if there's any validity.

In terms of the HOF, there are three kinds of players:

1) Over-qualified people where it doesn't matter how you end your career. Ken Griffey Jr., for example.

2) People who drift for a few seasons at the end, but come out it with some important benchmark. Obvious examples are Biggio and Ichiro. They really milked it, but they got their 3,000 hits, so it's a wash.

3) Everyone else. If you're in this group, I think it helps if you end your career still playing reasonably well. Walker and Guerrero, while not the players they used to be, were still hitting okay towards the end. More superficially for Guerrero, but you take a quick look at their stats and you don't wonder why they were still playing. With people like Andruw Jones, Mauer and Utley, Rolen to an extent, there's just too much drift between their peak and the end of their careers.

hoffman was only notable for the saves total and very few relievers will ever get the opportunities he got

― qualx, Monday, June 19, 2017 9:01 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

you're gonna love when aroldis chapman wins a couple titles and passes hoffman in WAR, and people say "well if HOFFMAN is in..."

Has there been a single iffy pick since (depending upon your point of view) either Dawson in 2010 or Rice in 2009? (I guess there'll be Hoffman this year.) There doesn't seem to be very many writers left who invoke that line of reasoning. The problem the last few years has been who gets left out, not who goes in.

but players are always comparing candidates to the other players enshrined at that position. and electing another reliever makes it more like a legit HOF position and less like rivera was a special case

xp ichiro was def a first ballot guy before anyone had any idea he'd go for 3000

you could argue this has already happened, hoffman obviously never has a chance to get in if rivera's not already guaranteed to go in

yeah i think hoffman's so close in total number of saves that people are like "well hey he's almost as good" but i mean hoffman wasn't even as good as billy wagner.

it's gonna be a decade or two probably before any RPs get a shot after mo/hoffman get in, and by then who knows what the story will be.

hoffman had a narrative surrounding him for the latter half of his career that made him sound like he was destined to go into the hall because of that saves total. lee smith didn't get it but he did. i don't think that'll happen again with any predictability

We see that differently, Kevin. I think Rivera hurts Hoffman, not helps him. If there's no Rivera, Hoffman sails in--he'd be #1 on the save list by 100+, with what were once good rate stats for a closer. Rivera raised the bar so high, especially with regards to post-season, that Hoffman will maybe get close to 80%, and then, I believe, that door closes for a decade.

Rivera should get in without a doubt of course, a 56.6 war as a reliever is remarkable. more than double Hoffman's too.

don't let kev hear you talking like that he'll hit you with his patented "relievers are just failed starters" left hook

doin this in June huh

Felix, Verlander, and Sabathia are all scrambled up right now. The best of them, Felix, may fall short because of health (unless it's a mid-career blip); the least impressive, CC, may be back in the picture after he looked dead. Verlander, who knows.

any of them could squeak their way to 3000 if that means anything anymore

still hopeful felix will some day learn how to pitch while old and have a good 30s

verlander seems to have the best shot of the three

Halladay and Vlad were inducted into the Canadian Baseball HOF today. Hard to think of two more likeable guys from the recent past.

http://www.torontosun.com/2017/06/24/halladay-guerrero-headline-2017-canadian-baseball-hall-of-fame-inductees-3?select_sec_photo=4

Had lunch with a friend today who left teaching for real estate--wanted some advice on selling a couple of years from now. He's a baseball fan, so we got talking about Scherzer, Kershaw, and Sale. I mentioned that if Scherzer wins the Cy this year, he's pretty much a lock for the HOF (an intuitive statement--didn't check into it until later). Anyway, before long, he's offering me a bet: $25, and I give him 4-1 odds, that Scherzer doesn't make the HOF even with a third Cy Young.

I knew it was a sucker's bet--giving, instead of getting, odds on virtually any 32-year-old, especially a pitcher, is crazy. But we kicked it around--I offered 3-1, or 2-1 without the third Cy provision, and eventually (I owed him a favour for something else) I took the bet at $40, 2.5-1, with or without the Cy.

So I'm no longer a baseball fan. I will be following Max Scherzer exclusively from here on in.

(I looked into it when I got home, and indeed--assuming Kershaw's in, and ignoring Clemens--a third Cy is an HOF lock. Works with the MVP, too, counting Pujols and ignoring Bonds/A-Rod. There are four pitchers and three position players who won twice and fell short.)

There's part of me, too, who thinks they'll never elect anyone who looks like a Hanna-Barbera character come to life, but I'm hoping the writers will overlook that.

an HOF

new poll when you read "HOF" do you see the actual letters or do you think "hall of fame"

Scherzer's been my favorite player outside of the Giants for a while now.

"An HOF"...Interesting; as I'm typing, I'm composing in my mind, and I realize I'm thinking of the letters rather than their meaning.

I've figured out that five more years (at least) of Scherzer plus the 10-year voting window means I'll be dead and never have to pay off anyway. I'm in good shape, so to speak.

The one-and-dones vs. the anti-one-and-dones:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hall-of-fame-careers-that-cooperstown-never-gave-the-time-of-day/

The writer went straight by JAWS; personally, I'd take one-and-done Delgado over Olerud.

clemenza you might be interested in the new book by jay jaffe, "the cooperstown casebook". there was a long excerpt of chapter 6 ("the war on WAR") on fangraphs the other day:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cooperstown-casebook-excerpt-the-war-on-war/

love how the lowest likelihood HOF catcher still had an 80% chance

almost like a lot more catchers belong hmmmmmmmmm