Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

It once meant a specific kind of douchebag, now the term encompasses too many douchebag subcategories.

xp

I agree, Hurting, Abbott...I think that "yuppie" is about as useful a word as "hipster" (or arguably, "hippie"). But, I'm thinking of all the press about baby boomers -> "yuppies" that was the subject of Time and Newsweek, etc., cover stories when I was growing up in the eighties.

Not all that funny, if it also means my already-rent-paying ass has to start supporting my parents, which is already a situation I have a small reason to worry about (xpost)

Yeah but overall pretty funny, right?

even that's pretty funny - the last 50 years of not giving a shit about our elders are something of an aberration, no?

also funny because my brother is way more successful than me and any duties are going to fall on him. haha

gotta get back to my law school applications...

This is where repeated viewings of the movie "Disorderlies" becomes inspiration for a lucrative career path, I guess...

So, are there any nurses or people going to nursing school or working towards related professions in this bitch?

Dollar is now at a 26-year low against the pound after that rate cut. $2.08!

i'll never save up enough money to move back to the uk at that rate.

Hurting, when the financial press say that sub-prime is not turning out as bad as expected, what they're really talking saying is: it's not turning out as bad as expected for the big financial institutions. No doubt, a lot more *individuals* are going to start defaulting when they come off teaser rates, but the investment banks have already marked to market the securities backed by them so, in theory, they have no exposure left to them.

The judge said the church's financial statements, sealed earlier, could be released to the plaintiffs.

Ooooooooh! I want to see these.

Who the hell lawyers for PhelpsCo.?

The weak dollar is also driving up the cost of oil since the leading petroleum nations trade oil in US currency and buy most of their durable goods in Euros.

god hates the us economy xp

Dollar is now at a 26-year low against the pound after that rate cut. $2.08!

-- stet, Wednesday, 31 October 2007 22:43 (Yesterday) Link

i have so many unwatched US dvds from the last few months, but they're giving them away.

when the financial press say that sub-prime is not turning out as bad as expected, what they're really talking saying is: it's not turning out as bad as expected for the big financial institutions. No doubt, a lot more *individuals* are going to start defaulting when they come off teaser rates, but the investment banks have already marked to market the securities backed by them so, in theory, they have no exposure left to them.

I've heard this explanation before, but I'm still not sure it makes sense to me -- how can the holders of those securities know exactly how bad the fallout is going to be when more of the mortgages reset? Like do they know exactly how many people are going to default? What if it's a lot more than expected because other economic conditions are worse than expected?

The markets sure weren't expecting the UBS writedown this morning. I think it is unravelling worse than expected.

I added the google DJI chart to the top so we can watch shit meet fan

today looks like it's going to be pretty exciting

I'VE BEEN WAITED SO LONG TIME.. THE BEGINNING IS JUST NOW

This is where repeated viewings of the movie "Disorderlies" becomes inspiration for a lucrative career path, I guess...

Get real fat and become a rapper?

A point that I've seen made on some of these goldbug blogs but which still seems pretty OTM is that the stock market actually HAS been falling for the last several years, basically since the summer of 2000, if you measured US stock prices in, say, pounds sterling, or Euros, or gold. The decline of the dollar as meant that even if your stock stays steady, its "actual" (?) value has decreased.

It 'as meant, gun'nor, wot wot

i.e. http://www.financialsense.com/Market/allison/2007/0430.html

So, are there any nurses or people going to nursing school or working towards related professions in this bitch?

i know several people who have switched to nursing/public health/related fields within the past two years or so.

oil = $96/barrel
dollar = £2.08

has the dollar really fallen eight cents in the past, what, three weeks??

No, not quite 3 weeks

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/img/77+X_SGBPUSD+bbc-big_thick-line+one_month.png

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/currency/11/12/img/77+X_SGBPUSD+bbc-big_thick-line+three_month.png

Also semantic pedantry, the dolalr can't fall by cents it has to fall by pence. the pounds has gone up by 8 cents.

Unless a dollar really is worth 92 cents.

The dollar is even falling against the penny. We're doomed.

The purchasing power of little kids and grandmas has increased dramatically though.

Like do they know exactly how many people are going to default?

simply put, it's an educated guess that is mostly based on historical data and complex mathematical formulas.

why compare the USD to the pound; as opposed to, say, US's largest trading partner?

because i live in the UK and travel to the US a lot.

ah - it was more of a general question actually. i see the two compared alot and wonder why it isn't held up against it's two north american trading partners more often.

even that's pretty funny - the last 50 years of not giving a shit about our elders are something of an aberration, no?

somebody in Suck.com wrote years ago and wondered if the "Greatest Generation" thing was something that boomers came up with so that everybody could now counteract the shit they put their own parents thru for 30+ years, and for the young folks of today not to give them the same decades of shit they themselves gave.

The dollar is falling against the penny there is more than 1.2cents worth of copper in a penny.

(In the UK we make our pennies out of steel, but this is also true for pre-1992 UK copper coins)

why compare the USD to the pound; as opposed to, say, US's largest trading partner?

Because the US's largest trading partner (china) pegs its currency to the dollar and it's second largest (japan) does it's darndest to keep itself weak vs the dollar. Euro and Pound free float. Euro is probably the more important measure as the pound is strong as well as the dollar being weak. the Euro is more comperable.

when the financial press say that sub-prime is not turning out as bad as expected, what they're really talking saying is: it's not turning out as bad as expected for the big financial institutions. No doubt, a lot more *individuals* are going to start defaulting when they come off teaser rates, but the investment banks have already marked to market the securities backed by them so, in theory, they have no exposure left to them.

I've heard this explanation before, but I'm still not sure it makes sense to me -- how can the holders of those securities know exactly how bad the fallout is going to be when more of the mortgages reset? Like do they know exactly how many people are going to default? What if it's a lot more than expected because other economic conditions are worse than expected?

The holders of the securities won't know how bad the fallout is, but the holders will now all be speculative investors, hedge funds, conduits etc. Whatever subprime backed securities were on the bank's balance sheets when the shit hit the fan are being moved off the bank's balance sheets (but obviously, they're having to sell at a loss, which is what all these write downs are). That doesn't mean it can't sneak in the back door, so you might still get the odd unexpected write down, but for the most part the banks will have cut their losses.

so when should i sell all my stocks?

Ed, the US hasn't made its pennies out of copper in at least 20 years. I believe they're made of zinc, with a very very thin copper coating.

Ed - I'm aware of china pegging it's dollar. but as far as I'm aware, largest trading partner = Canada. Followed by China and then Mexico. Am I wrong?

 Canada                                 47.56           367.87

 China                                  34.34           246.29

 Mexico                                 31.55           227.46

 Japan                                  16.96           137.75

 Federal Republic of Germany            12.95            94.78

 United Kingdom                          8.57            70.94

 Korea, South                            6.78            55.28

 Taiwan                                  5.85            42.44

 France                                  5.49            45.56

 Brazil                                  4.55            32.36

 

Isn't the US dollar at something like a 20-year low against the Canadian dollar too? What difference are you trying to tease out?

Err. headers should be ||Country|| ||billions of dollars traded in August 07|| ||Billions 2007 to date||

Try 50 year! And a small distance from a historical record.

xpost

So it's like, the dollar is low by any measure.

Well, when your currency reaches parity with your largest trading partner - when it was 1=.65 a matter of years ago - it should really set off a good deal of reevaluation of the overall nature of business between the two. It's sort of causing chaos in Canada - many businesses no longer being able to compete on the merits of a weaker dollar alone, exports way down and all sorts of crazy pricing discrepancies setting off a tidal-wave of cross boarder shopping. it's the largest trade relationship in the world, if I'm not mistaken, and a sudden reversal of currency value I think should merit more evaluation.

Whatever subprime backed securities were on the bank's balance sheets when the shit hit the fan are being moved off the bank's balance sheets (but obviously, they're having to sell at a loss, which is what all these write downs are).

I don't think much has been moved off bank's balance sheets yet. The writedowns are just the banks writing down the market value of things that are still on their balance sheets. These markets have basically stopped trading since the credit crunch hit, so there's been little opportunity for banks to unload this stuff, and if they were forced to unload it, they'd certainly get even less than the marks they're putting on it now. In addition, there is the danger that banks will have to move even more of this stuff onto their balance sheets if some of the SIVs and conduits that they're backing fail to find financing.

This article from the FT says that there are good reasons to fear that worse is still to come for the banks:

Fall in ABX sparks fresh credit fears

xpost
well for me it seems that reaction in Canada = OMG OMG OMG
where as in the States = zuh?

another xpost

you know what. i don't know what my point was. i'm going back to the pot thread.

The writedowns are just the banks writing down the market value of things that are still on their balance sheets.

But with subprime, they haven't been able to do that because the market is so illiquid. Goldman explicitly stated in their earnings report that everything they couldn't value from the market, they sold.