Trump, June 2017: From [Covfefe] with Love

Seems funny joke to me that Trump would fire COmey because of how he handled "Crooked Hillary" - kind of like saying YOu think the police do a good job giving speeding tickets but then if you get in trouble with the law you think the police go too far and point to all the speeding tickets given - where was his outrage before the election

Good thing we didn't elect that corrupt lady. You know, the one with the questionable financial dealings? The one whose handling of sensitive information was substandard (particularly in the realm of electronic communications). The rape-enabler.

Sure dodged a bullet there, USA

You want 5D chess, the prevalent theory is that by making him a material witness, Trump is forcing Rosenstein to recuse himself as well, which opens the office up for Trump to appoint someone who will fire Mueller.

Of course, I don't know how much more beneficial that would be too Trump, since the end result would be the same. But being a profoundly bad idea actually affirms the possibility.

President gas on everything but roller skates!

humanity would have been doomed with hillary as president too xxxp

What was that about if Trump fires Mueller another body will be triggered that would just rehire him and the result would be similar.

he's going to fire him and nothing will come of it

Much of this is fun popcorn watching but EVEN SO, the best-case scenario is roughly this:

1. Mueller, with all his alleged gravitas and legal chops, determines that T. did in fact engage in prosecutable obstruction. This finding is trumpeted from the rooftops and everyone in the known world is aware of it.

2. Trumpians everywhere put their fingers in their ears and scream some variation of "politically motivated partisan witch hunt!" or just "lalala I can't hear you"

3. The Republican-majority congress (which would of course be the prosecution, judge, jury, and executioner in an impeachment case) decides that obstruction does not rise to the level of "high crimes and misdemeanors," and declines to bring impeachment proceedings.

Remember: Almost all of the congressd00dz that constitute the Republican majority hail from overwhelmingly Trumpian districts. If they even appear to waver in their obeisance on His Orangeness, they will go back to their districts faced by angry mobs of pitchfork-wielding Red Hatters.

Trump's popularity may be in the toilet nationwide, but support for him is still the dominant political force in the districts that matter: lopsidedly red ones. And in every one of those districts currently being represented by a squishy RINO cuck, there is a surely a frothy-mouthed Teahadi just itching to mount a primary challenge from the congressd00d's right.

4. I still don't think this will come to impeachment, but as long as it stays in people's heads and stays on the front page, it will continue to vex Mango Jesus. It gets under his skin, he can't turn the TV off. It will goad him into ever-more paranoid and narcissistic knee-jerk tweets. MAYBE he'll finally lose it in a way that no one will be able to defend. But I'm not holding my breath.

yr Maverick at... work

Hey dude _why_ are you taking health care from 20 million ppl?

Extraordinary exchange b/w McCain + @t_golshan: https://t.co/pRPvWHXxcJ pic.twitter.com/SWLOjbHSj7

— Jeff Stein (@JStein_Vox) June 16, 2017

What is this bill trying to do? It's trying to get passed. But what's in it? Something that will get passed. But what will get passed? Whatever gets consensus. And what would that take? Something that will be passed.

none of them know anything, really

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/16/15810524/senate-ahca-explain-please

Asked the WH to clarify that Trump's tweet was referring specifically to Rod Rosenstein. Sarah Sanders deferred to Marc Kasowitz + his team.

— Lachlan Markay (@lachlan) June 16, 2017

Rosenstein news -- Deputy AG acknowledges he may need to recuse himself from Russia probe - @ABC News https://t.co/gJOYtsKkjZ

— Rick Klein (@rickklein) June 16, 2017

"The president's tweet speaks for itself"

if Trump fires Mueller another body will be triggered that would just rehire him and the result would be similar.

But if Trump fires Mueller he becomes part of the case, like Comey, and rehiring him is probably not feasible

Trump's popularity may be in the toilet nationwide, but support for him is still the dominant political force in the districts that matter: lopsidedly red ones.

I disagree with this; the lopsidedly red ones are the ones that don't matter.

lopsided red is where the primary elections are more important than the general tho

meaning those guys will never abandon Trump

Coming back to the idea that Trump isn't worried about evidence of collusion but wants to avoid an investigation into his business ventures (which seems entirely plausible), would the results of those investigations automatically be made public or only if there was something actionable?

Particularly given how much of his time and effort has been tied up in the UAE over the last years, and how much of a rogues gallery Emirati real estate is, it could be hugely embarrassing even if it falls short of criminality - but would it ever come to light if there was no clear evidence of malfeasance?

eephus, I mean that there are enough lopsidedly red districts to secure a Republican majority in the House.

President Keyes is right: those d00dz are not going wobbly on the Trumpster. If they did, they'd be primaried out by the Red Hat Brigade. Which would be fun to watch, I guess, but it seems unlikely to deliver a D majority any time soon.

MAYBE there are some districts that are sufficiently heterogenous such that a right-wing third-party challenge could help some type of Democrat get elected. I remain skeptical there are enough of those, though.

Teflon Don - on oen can stop him

rosenstein recusing himself would mean that a trump-appointee is in charge of mueller

xoxo

There are 23 GOP representatives in districts that Clinton won. Those alone would flip the House.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rachel_Brand at least she appears to be a standard GOP ideologue with at least some credentials instead of, say, trump's manicurist

I don't know, SV. A hell of a lot of things came to light in the Starr Report that while not "actionable" were enough to effectively paralyze Clinton's presidency

right , thought I'd seen this somewhere over teh last couple of days

Adam Schiff
If President fired Bob Mueller, Congress would immediately re-establish independent counsel and appoint Bob Mueller. Don't waste our time.

there are more "gettable" republican seats than you might think. Cook Political Report Source has 37 Republicans in pure "swing" districts, and 25 in "Lean Republican" districts

http://cookpolitical.com/file/Cook_Political_Report_Partisan_Voter_Index_.pdf

interesting convo re support of two scoops among republicans

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-a-real-gop-break-from-trump-look-like/

I am really hoping that Trump's lack of subtlety will finally make people realize the republicans are up to no good at all times

Did it? He still managed to bomb a pill factory in Sudan and his approval rating hovered in the high sixties.

xxpost

Adam Schiff
If President fired Bob Mueller, Congress would immediately re-establish independent counsel and appoint Bob Mueller. Don't waste our time.

When he tweeted this, why was he so confident? If there's anything the past several weeks have proved, it's that apparently "I don't want to" is a perfectly accepted excuse to various threats, demands and commands.

oh shit, i read that report i linked totally wrong. 18 republicans in pure swing districts, 25 in Lean Republican districts

MAYBE there are some districts that are sufficiently heterogenous such that a right-wing third-party challenge could help some type of Democrat get elected. I remain skeptical there are enough of those, though.

― croque monsoon (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, June 16, 2017 9:57 AM (twenty-one minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this is more of a threat in gubernatorial and senatorial elections--see Virginia, where Corey Stewart has emphatically rejected unity with his opponent (at least until he decides to run for Senate against Tim Kaine)

yeah i'm a little skeptical that an effort to appoint special (or even independent counsel) would get bipartisan support xp

rather, re-appoint

Citroën, intheblanks, voodoo: I hope you're right! Stand corrected. If the House flips in 2018 I will happily print and eat those posts. With lemongrass pesto.

Wouldn't firing without cause give standing for a lawsuit that could go to SCOTUS? Archibald Cox's firing did (granted his was for refusing an illegal White House order)

Well, the (a) argument is that firing Mueller would constitute further obstruction of justice, backed up by his tweets (again). But it still boils down to congressional willingness to do, well, anything.

Such a lawsuit would be highly dramatic, but p sure the only punishments that can be meted out against presidents are (1) impeachment and (2) not getting reelected.

@YMP yeah, ultimately i do think the house will be tough to get, it would really need to be a wave election, which dems struggle with in off years.

The upshot of the cook political report thing I linked is that the number of true "swing" districts has decreased steadily over the past 20 years. There are 72 now, whereas there were 164 in 1997, and 108 before the last Democratic takeover (2006).

eephus, I mean that there are enough lopsidedly red districts to secure a Republican majority in the House.

Median congressional district went for Trump by 3.4%. That is very far from lopsided. Dems face a tilted playing field in the House (even more so in the Senate obv.) but even a moderate level of dissatisfaction nationally among Republicans would be enough to overcome that. (especially if Dems turn out -- will they? no idea.)

meanwhile other agenda items seem stalled

http://money.cnn.com/2017/02/01/investing/apple-cash-overseas/index.html

President Trump has called for a one-time tax cut to bring back -- or repatriate -- the cash that big businesses have in foreign accounts. Microsoft (MSFT, Tech30), Alphabet (GOOGL, Tech30), Cisco (CSCO, Tech30) and Oracle (ORCL, Tech30) also have a significant chunk of their cash overseas.
Trump is hoping that Apple and these other tech giants could use this cash to hire more American workers. Skeptics claim that companies will be more likely to boost dividends, buy back more stock and maybe acquire companies.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/16/georgia-special-election-gop-worries-239619

(especially if Dems turn out -- will they? no idea.)

Means nothing now, but the past few recent special elections and primaries dem turnout has been way up, right?

Xxxxpost Right. Thing is tho, leakers got out in front of this story to frame the firing as obstruction if it were to happen (whereas the public was unclear of the exact scope of Comey's investigation at the time, and there was weak plausible deniability for other reasons for termination).

Firing special counsel requires AG action, has set guidelines for when they can be removed, and requires a report to Congress. It's a much bigger effort.

His base won't even believe it's not obstruction - they just won't gaf.

Obv Pubs are in for the long haul with this doofus but assuming we are still standing next year, more seats for us

Firing special counsel requires AG action, has set guidelines for when they can be removed, and requires a report to Congress. It's a much bigger effort.

Seems pretty straight forward to me. Rosenstein recuses, Trump appoints replacement, replacement fires Mueller, per Trump, reports to congress, who is all, cool, glad that's over with. Dems get mad, moderate GOPers scowl and frown. Then what?

Trump appoints replacement

this is problematic, since nobody wants to work for Trump

Certainly not for the top tier, but this would be a replacement replacing a replacement. There are plenty of Borks out there. Of course, they would have to go in knowing why they were picked, which means they'd have to be implicitly bad hombres to begin with. Per Saul, "You don't want a criminal lawyer... you want a criminal lawyer,"