Trump, July 2017: Tweet more

you're blind, Mr. Magoo

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-finds-trump-standing-weakened-since-springtime/2017/07/15/2decf03a-68d2-11e7-9928-22d00a47778f_story.html

President Trump’s standing with the American people has deteriorated since the spring, buffeted by perceptions of a decline in U.S. leadership abroad, a stalled presidential agenda at home and an unpopular Republican health-care bill, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Approaching six months in office, Trump’s overall approval rating has dropped to 36 percent from 42 percent in April. His disapproval rating has risen five points to 58 percent. Overall, 48 percent say they “disapprove strongly” of Trump’s performance in office, a level never reached by former presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama and reached only in the second term of George W. Bush in Post-ABC polling.

Almost half of all Americans (48 percent) see the country’s leadership in the world as weaker since Trump was inaugurated, compared with 27 percent who say it is stronger. Despite the fact that Trump campaigned as someone skilled at making deals that would be good for the country, majorities also say they do not trust him in negotiations with foreign leaders and in particular Russian President Vladimir Putin.

And so on.

that's funny, i was just about to post this, with the caption "they still think he's doing a great job":

http://i.imgur.com/cle1Wz3.png

http://i.imgur.com/GeL8T5h.png

that second table doesn't include daily polls from after the shocking donald jr revelations. those are sure to drop his approval ratings among republicans from 85% to maybe 82% or so, a devastating blow

depressingly true. but fwiw there is that thing of the "strongly approve" percentage substantially declining since inauguration, among republicans, which gets camouflaged in the combined "approve" figures...

So far, there’s little sign that the president’s approval rating with Republicans is in danger of eroding. Earlier this month, a congressional source told me, Democratic strategists looking at a Republican-held swing district that is expected to be in play in next year’s midterm elections were shocked when a private poll they conducted showed that Republican support for Mr. Trump in the district is even stronger now than it was on Election Day.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/15/opinion/sunday/no-one-cares-about-russia-in-the-world-breitbart-made.html

xpost

hope you're right!

We're not going to see a reassessment of Trump among Republicans till the stock market tanks. Thanks to his planned trade war (and overall crazy, 2000-esque overvaluations in tech sector) its inevitable.

Have wondered if Don Jr missed the significance of what the idea of adoption represented in terms of Russia since hearing it was one of Putin's responses to sanctions being imposed to clock U.S. adoption of russian children. So what had been brought up with adoption being a synecdoche of a wider subject to be discussed was just met with blank indifference by somebody unable to connect dots that the other side might have expected to be a lot clearer.

i'm sure half-scoop is very concerned about the plight of russian orphans. i'm wondering, now that we've seen emails from half-scoop himself proving that comey was 911% justified in investigating russian collusion, is it possible he gets his old job back, and forget about christopher wray?

Who wants that job? Comey is writing a book.

Don Jr., man: sometimes talkin' adoption is not talkin' adoption, you moron. The fact that there was a quorum, including other higher-ups, demonstrates others knew the issue was more ... complex, even if Dum Jr. didn't.

that second table doesn't include daily polls from after the shocking donald jr revelations. those are sure to drop his approval ratings among republicans from 85% to maybe 82% or so, a devastating blow

I am currently idly speculating that the value of Russia story is not the thing itself, but rather what it does to the yam's fragile mental stability. I've given up hoping it will turn up anything actionable, but I love how much it bothers him. It's possible the siege mentality will goad him into some misstep that not even Hannity will defend. Not holding my breath, but it hovers as a possibility.

http://pushtrumpoffacliffagain.com/

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-idUSKBN1A10Q9

Secret Service "allowed" nothing, their two jobs are investigating financial crimes and protecting the politicians they're assigned to. God what hilarious logic - them being there just proves that the politicians they were protecting were going to be there.

Yeah, that is pretty funny logic. The Secret Service I imagine allows most things, except things that could get the president or his family killed.

Trump lawyer:

I wonder why the Secret Service, if this was nefarious, why the Secret Service allowed these people in.

Because they weren't carrying weapons?

Sounds like Jr. has secured some top-notch legal counsel.

5d chess looking more like 1D checkers played w/ Monopoly pieces

Re: Trump numbers, reportedly he is faring very poorly in counties that Obama won but he flipped.

He was not the droid they were searching for.

LOL, secret service statement throws DJTJ under the bus. does that conflict with mission statement?

The Nixon comparisons hit the next level.

A spokesperson for U.S. Senator Dean Heller confirms an investigation is underway following a break-in at his Las Vegas campaign office.

— George Knapp (@g_knapp) July 16, 2017

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/poll-trump-historically-unpopular-at-six-month-mark.html

uuggghhh

But the people who matter most to Trump are sticking with him, with 82 percent of GOP voters approving of his performance. (Among independents, it’s a dismal 32 percent.) He still does well among white Evangelical Protestants (61 percent approval) and white men without a college degree (55 percent). Trump’s handling of the economy also isn’t a disaster: Forty-three percent approve of it compared to 41 percent who disapprove and 16 percent who are unsure.

Yeah, not surprising at all re economy. I keep saying that! A major, undeniable fuckup there is what would break the spell -- and would you want that?

Meantime, Mike Flynn, surfer.

https://apnews.com/45e07fcaf920466eb64a76fa118b1d36/Flynn-returns-to-hometown,-surfing-in-respite-from-scandal

82% is kinda shockingly low for GOP approval of a GOP POTUS, innit? Like, one of the few things they have going for themselves is mindless solidarity. Things like Graham threatening to introduce an alternate healthcare bill show some definite chinks developing in that armor.

I mean, let's get real here; 82% approval is not "shockingly low" by any reasonable metric. I understand the need to look for silver linings but let's not deny reality while doing so.

Well, there's something more afoot here, isn't there? He's at 82% approval or whatever, but whenever they dive deep there always seems to be only about 30% diehard Trump supporters. So within that 80% there has to be a range of approval, and "approval" in the abstract may not be the same thing as blind support.

That said, Dan otm. He should be at zero, and anything in the double digits is innately troubling/disturbing/depressing.

Could be fun

oh man CREW is getting (and releasing) Mar-a-Lago visitor logs, starting Sept 8 pic.twitter.com/tNqfDam5IK

— Betsy Woodruff (@woodruffbets) July 17, 2017

Anyway, Nick Confessore apparently was saying the same thing in more detail than I was just now -- talking about this being a 'Performative Presidency' and that to the base the performance is the presidency, etc. This exchange further summarizing what would need to happen in order for things to change re said base:

The whole "Performative Presidency" theory is fun, right up until there's a real crisis with a need for decisions, judgement and leadership.

— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) July 17, 2017

I'm not saying it's fun.
But maybe that's when the wheels come off.

— Nick Confessore (@nickconfessore) July 17, 2017

So the question again: do you want that? (George W.'s legacy was crippled and tarnished by Iraq/Katrina and finally sunk by the 2008 crash. Consider all the loss that resulted from those events. Do you want that?)

And I like this one-two-three just now

What a lot of people miss is that the American republic was designed to cope with almost anything except "lol nothing matters" voters.

— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) July 17, 2017

Slight correction: vengeance voters don't know enough about those norms to want to destroy them. They just want to upset people they hate. https://t.co/tqm3fvgpN4

— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) July 17, 2017

And rather than destroy norms, they're looking to get even with people they think are responsible for their unhappy situation. https://t.co/gsoHKqi3eC

— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) July 17, 2017

So the question again: do you want that? (George W.'s legacy was crippled and tarnished by Iraq/Katrina and finally sunk by the 2008 crash. Consider all the loss that resulted from those events. Do you want that?)

I mean, would we have a choice?

Wondering, because I don't have an answer to this: why do people like Susan Collins even identify as Republicans? What is it about the GOP that they support that they could not support as a slightly more conservative Democrat?

Ned, isn't the question more like "have the effects of the Trump presidency hit Iraq/Katrina-level disastrousness yet?" because the only reason to hope for some terrible event would be to decisively prevent a second term, not just animosity toward DJT. It's difficult to account for climate change/environmental catastrophe in that calculus but I'd day "not yet" right now.

Josh, the 82% is GOP only. That number will never not be in the high double digits. Which is still sad.

We're absolutely going to end up with ICE / CBP pulling some Abu Ghraib type shit, and I've been completely confident since December that thousands will die in a horribly mismanaged and/or totally avoidable disaster a la Deepwater Horizon plus Katrina but let's say in Los Angeles or Philly instead of the gulf again.

Imho getting diddled out of our election by a foreign adversary is already Iraq-level fucked up but that's a personal feeling I have because I get to live with knowing too much about it for the rest of my life, and it was mostly on Dems for "going high"

Ask me how I really feel about Republicans for accepting the help, though! Ask me.

Gwan so

it was mostly on Dems for "going high"

this was not the reason Hillary lost. if anything her campaign spent too much time pointing out that her opponent was a piece of shit.

You completely missed my point but that's understandable

I'm not talking about the campaign at all. I'm talking about the administration.

He's at 82% approval or whatever, but whenever they dive deep there always seems to be only about 30% diehard Trump supporters. So within that 80% there has to be a range of approval, and "approval" in the abstract may not be the same thing as blind support.

Yeah I have to think that there's a sizable contingent of "I don't love Trump all that much, but if I'm being asked a question by the Washington Post, Gallup, or ABC my answer is going to be 90% Fuck You."

Or as in the Nichols tweet Ned posted, "vengeance voters don't know enough about those norms to want to destroy them. They just want to upset people they hate."

the real question is "would you *vote* for the motherfucker in 2020?"

Suggested ELECTION2020 thread title.

I guess since he won't have actually learned or accomplished anything in four years, people may still be persuaded to vote for him on the basis of his not being an experienced politician.

Dear god, assuming he actually retains his office long enough to get to that point, I'm suddenly despairing at the likely tenor of the ads for his reelection campaign.

if the Dems manage to take the House in 2018, impeachment proceedings will begin and it becomes pretty hard to predict what happens next in terms of the 2020 election. Team Trump will of course circle the wagons and amp up the witch hunt narrative as much as possible, but if GOP candidates in general smell blood in the water there may be schisms to exploit. Who knows, really.

pretty big if there

things can change, but i don't see it happening

McCain's recovery could take awhile, doctors say

How convenient.