The Counting Stat Formerly Known as a Big Deal : best bet for 300 wins

ervin santana has had a weird career

3 shutouts this year!

and -1.3 WAR in 2012! somehow it all works out to a 103 ERA+

i do think there are 1 or 2 other HOFers on that list aside from Scherzer and Kershaw though.
― nomar, Friday, August 4, 2017 12:52 PM (three hours ago)

Sounds about right. Kershaw's basically in, Scherzer's close; at least one (maybe two) from Felix, Verlander, and Greinke; maybe one longshot after that. (Sale didn't make NoTime's cutoff, but, as I said above, I think he's a possibility for 300 and a better bet for the HOF.)

boring answer, but none of these guys has a good shot

The "best bet" is obviously to bet against all these guys, but where's the fun in that?

Until this season, Hamels was durable enough to have a half decent shot at 300 (and the HOF, currently 6th in WAR among active pitchers, just behind Felix and Verlander, but way ahead of Scherzer and Lester).

He makes it clear that none is this is meant to be taken too seriously, but there's a comment in here by Fleming, explaining why he puts David Price at 35% for the HOF, that seems pertinent to this thread.

http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_cooperstown_sox/

"The reason I guessed 35% for Price is that he's in a pack of pitchers in their early thirties who a) have about 120-160 wins, b) with a good winning percentage, and c) a CY or two. He's in the pack with Scherzer and Lester and Grienke and Verlander and Hamels and Felix. Seven pitchers."

I think the money these guys make now will probably lead some of them to call it quits earlier than some players of the past. How many of these guys do you see really pitching at age 40? Many of them are under contract to age 36-37.

Are there any of them that might hang around as a reliever at the end of a career? Got to figure one of them will end up doing so.

I can see Zack pitching until he's 45

I understand the opposite argument, but I've always seen the big money as an incentive to stay around longer--stay for as long as someone's willing to pay you a few million--not quit.

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lol

big games indeed