North Korea

Don't think NK would start a missile fight with anyone. But do think Trump could "preemptively" bomb them, and I do think NK would retaliate (probably against SK). Detente with a nuclear NK possibly the best case scenario. But we haven't had a nuclear power ever really threaten for leverage, have we? Like, not invoke nukes as a deterrent, but as a flat-out do this or we do this extortion ultimatum? I wonder if, if NK gets there, they will dare to go that route, because if they do, I have no idea how that ends well.

(Probably should change thread name, fully support that)

North Korea was never fucking funny.

North Koreans have been suffering for years and until like 2014, they were treated like some quirky quixotic joke. There's nothing fucking funny about a country of people imprisoned in an alternate reality ruled by an insane fat despot who probably doesn't understand the concept of mutually assured destruction.

and yeah, change the thread title. maybe "North Korea: not hilarious"

There's nothing fucking funny about a country of people imprisoned in an alternate reality ruled by an insane fat despot who probably doesn't understand the concept of mutually assured destruction.

you're talking about America right

^ still hilarious

ha ha ha

I've often wondered how adept at fighting they actually are. Marching in lockstep is one thing. But if they train in isolation for decades, how capable will they be against an enemy actually shooting back?

Doesn't seem like a ground war is what's going to happen. If we go to war with North Korea it'll be over in an hour.

For that matter, is it possible that the North Korean army has been training with no knowledge of possible ordinance used against them? That is, how much do they even know about the military power of the United States? Or Europe or Russia or anyone else? If they were told the full extent of their purported enemies powers, wouldn't that undercut their own propaganda?

Like, do they have any idea that they could be absolutely decimated in an hour, as you say? Wouldn't that affect morale a little bit? Or have they been told that they would decimate everyone else in an hour?

i'm not sure that NK would crushed quite as easily as you think

would be crushed

Not necessarily would, but could. I'm just wondering, not that we will get an answer anywhere, what their soldiers know about any army they might actually face.

here's one of many bleak assessments of how it would play out:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/what-a-war-with-north-korea-looks-like_us_58f7740ae4b0f5cf16c7bb19

Doesn't seem like a ground war is what's going to happen. If we go to war with North Korea it'll be over in an hour.

― flappy bird

no way man

I have no doubt it would be messy, possibly a disaster. I'm just talking about the paradox of keeping an army in line by no doubt telling them they will beat any invading army back, all while needing to keep the powers the armies they might face unknown to them, to prop up the illusion of military superiority.

are there any TANKies on ILX?

i dunno, who knows what they tell their own military. it's possible to a) tell your military that they're the best in the world and b) also instill the notion that they should fight to the end no matter what happens and be heroes, bla bla bla. assuming a ground war doesn't take place, so much of the combat is remote anyway. i'm certainly no kind of expert on modern warfare, especially a unique situation like north korea presents, but i don't think that the war would really play out like you're suggesting, where a group of naive north korean troops suddenly sees the shining awe-inspiring forces of the west coming over the horizon and realizes that they are outmatched

xp we had one once on the stalin thread (iirc) but afaik no

xpost
that line of thinking comes too close to the shock and awe confidence of the early iraq war for me

You think we're gonna send troops in? Seems like this a nuclear war situation. If intelligence community is confident in belief that Kim Jong-Un has ability to nuke USA, isn't willing to negotiate, and doesn't understand or buy into concept of mutually assured destruction, what are our options? They'll either nuke us first or we'll nuke them. This is the "end of the ballgame," as our President said a few months ago.

Don't get me wrong - not advocating nuclear war. This whole situation has me scared shitless. But there's no way I see a ground war happening when we already have a guy seemingly ready and able to use nukes.

(and that last part applies to USA & NK)

If intelligence community is confident in belief that Kim Jong-Un has ability to nuke USA, isn't willing to negotiate, and doesn't understand or buy into concept of mutually assured destruction, what are our options?

i think one of the misconceptions about all of this is that kim jong-un isn't willing to negotiate, or that he is an irrational actor. what he is doing is actually rational, from a certain perspective. nuclear weapons really do provide power and security to the countries that possess them. it's a very powerful negotiating chip, maybe the most powerful. do you think that kim jong-un would rather trigger a nuclear apocalypse, or use the threat of nukes to reduce or remove sanctions on north korea?

that's the rub, I don't know. all of the Cold War USSR leaders understood M.A.D. and how to negotiate. Do we have evidence KJU understands M.A.D.? I honestly don't know. I like that Tillerson wants to talk to them, and I hope he does. But we're talking about a dude that rules a country where he is regarded as a God. his people live in an alternate reality. Does he as well? I don't know. I hope not.

But we're talking about a dude that rules a country where he is regarded as a God. his people live in an alternate reality. Does he as well? I don't know. I hope not.

He at least thinks he's regarded as a god, or wants others to see it that way. Which is very similar to Trump tbh. Trump copying "fire and fury" style rhetoric is deeply worrying: he's going along with NK in this respect.

That's a little hyperbolic, there wouldn't be people thrown in gulags for not crying hard enough in public if Trump were to die.

NK could of course leverage nuclear weapons for negotiated concessions, in terms of supplies or money or food or whatever in return for disarmament it ratcheting things down. But they could have done that before they accelerated their nuclear program. And clearly preferred to go for the nukes. The question is what happens if they use nuclear weapons to make demands?

xp

I mean really. Comparing the situation in NK to USA is so over the top. Who knows how many North Koreans sincerely believe KJU is a God? There's no way of knowing, they're completely closed off to the world.

Threatening to go nuclear is totally rational. Skipping even the pretense of generating energy and going straight to intercontinental ballistic missile that can reach across the world is less rational. It's outright aggressive. I'm not sure anyone knows what their endgame is.

we've basically shown every other authoritarian regime with ambitions of nukes that what happens when you don't develop them is that we overthrow you. i imagine kim jong-un is just trying to make it look like they have the capability to launch a nuke so that doesn't happen. of course if the outside world establishes he doesn't yet have the capability but is close it's probably going to precipitate a war, and a really nasty one at that.

i think he probably wants nukes so he can threaten seoul w/ a nuclear exchange unless the US withdraws from SK

And if we did?

And if we didn't?

i'm surprised trump hasn't just offered to leave SK. he was so "fuck our allies" during the campaign and now he's willing to start a nuclear war on SK's behalf? (i kno this is almost certainly posturing to distract from his domestic troubles - the same reason that NK loves saber-rattling as well.)

i don't think we have taken the time to be sufficiently mad about how the "Axis of Evil" speech helped get us here https://t.co/xuxnbUZtkD

— Seth D. Michaels 🌲 (@sethdmichaels) August 8, 2017

it didn't

if you're going to blame US FP for this blame the Korean War

this is fun to go back and re-read :) https://t.co/GbYEus1nuN pic.twitter.com/eMh4KvVpRh

— slackbot (@pareene) August 8, 2017

Jesus Christ, I don't remember any of that. I gotta read that piece.

Comparing the situation in NK to USA is so over the top.

Of course it was hyperbolic. But I wasn't comparing the situations, you did. I merely compared both leaders.

the comparison of the leaders is sadly spot on. the "fire and fury" shit is just unbelievably irresponsible. it's the kind of thing we're used to hearing from NK, like many have said. just completely counterproductive and painting ourselves more and more into a corner.

This is a really bad and dangerous situation to start with. It was bad when President Obama left office. It’s gotten much worse since – through some mix of US threats and North Korean testing out the new administration. The worst possible thing is a President who is stupid, impulsively emotional and has something to prove, which is exactly what we have. (You think his litany of failures as President so doesn’t make him eager for a breakout, transformative moment?) At the risk of stating the obvious, threats like this from a country that has the ability to kill everyone in North Korea at close to a moment’s notice can set off a highly unpredictable chain of events. What if North Korea issues more threats? Presumably Trump fails to respond with a nuclear attack and reveals his threats as empty or – truly, truly unimaginably – he launches a nuclear attack. These are not good choices to face.

i'm surprised trump hasn't just offered to leave SK. he was so "fuck our allies" during the campaign and now he's willing to start a nuclear war on SK's behalf? (i kno this is almost certainly posturing to distract from his domestic troubles - the same reason that NK loves saber-rattling as well.)

― Mordy, Tuesday, August 8, 2017 9:47 PM (fifteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Very otm, I wondered this too. And I wouldn't put it past him that if, if NK attacks SK, he will not back SK in the way he says he will.

Comparing the situation in NK to USA is so over the top.

Of course it was hyperbolic. But I wasn't comparing the situations, you did. I merely compared both leaders.

― Le Bateau Ivre, Tuesday, August 8, 2017 6:03 PM (three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

You're right, I misunderstood your post. Sorry about that. I agree with the comparison.

Is there a good article somewhere about the sanctions imposed over the years? It feels like they impose new sanctions every single time. There must come a point where new sanctions aren't possible anymore because everything's 100% sanctioned?

xp np flappy. Just meant two seemingly alike characters - huge ego, driven by desire to WIN - etc seems more dangerous than with any previous US president.

so NK just threatened to fire missiles at guam?

tbf Not sure how any admin would or should handle this?

xpost

no idea how serious they are about guam, but part of the threat must be to provoke trump

it's cool that our representative in this situation is a fucking child

xpost Good luck with that, the man is like cold iron!