North Korea

we've basically shown every other authoritarian regime with ambitions of nukes that what happens when you don't develop them is that we overthrow you. i imagine kim jong-un is just trying to make it look like they have the capability to launch a nuke so that doesn't happen. of course if the outside world establishes he doesn't yet have the capability but is close it's probably going to precipitate a war, and a really nasty one at that.

i think he probably wants nukes so he can threaten seoul w/ a nuclear exchange unless the US withdraws from SK

And if we did?

And if we didn't?

i'm surprised trump hasn't just offered to leave SK. he was so "fuck our allies" during the campaign and now he's willing to start a nuclear war on SK's behalf? (i kno this is almost certainly posturing to distract from his domestic troubles - the same reason that NK loves saber-rattling as well.)

i don't think we have taken the time to be sufficiently mad about how the "Axis of Evil" speech helped get us here https://t.co/xuxnbUZtkD

— Seth D. Michaels 🌲 (@sethdmichaels) August 8, 2017

it didn't

if you're going to blame US FP for this blame the Korean War

this is fun to go back and re-read :) https://t.co/GbYEus1nuN pic.twitter.com/eMh4KvVpRh

— slackbot (@pareene) August 8, 2017

Jesus Christ, I don't remember any of that. I gotta read that piece.

Comparing the situation in NK to USA is so over the top.

Of course it was hyperbolic. But I wasn't comparing the situations, you did. I merely compared both leaders.

the comparison of the leaders is sadly spot on. the "fire and fury" shit is just unbelievably irresponsible. it's the kind of thing we're used to hearing from NK, like many have said. just completely counterproductive and painting ourselves more and more into a corner.

This is a really bad and dangerous situation to start with. It was bad when President Obama left office. It’s gotten much worse since – through some mix of US threats and North Korean testing out the new administration. The worst possible thing is a President who is stupid, impulsively emotional and has something to prove, which is exactly what we have. (You think his litany of failures as President so doesn’t make him eager for a breakout, transformative moment?) At the risk of stating the obvious, threats like this from a country that has the ability to kill everyone in North Korea at close to a moment’s notice can set off a highly unpredictable chain of events. What if North Korea issues more threats? Presumably Trump fails to respond with a nuclear attack and reveals his threats as empty or – truly, truly unimaginably – he launches a nuclear attack. These are not good choices to face.

i'm surprised trump hasn't just offered to leave SK. he was so "fuck our allies" during the campaign and now he's willing to start a nuclear war on SK's behalf? (i kno this is almost certainly posturing to distract from his domestic troubles - the same reason that NK loves saber-rattling as well.)

― Mordy, Tuesday, August 8, 2017 9:47 PM (fifteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Very otm, I wondered this too. And I wouldn't put it past him that if, if NK attacks SK, he will not back SK in the way he says he will.

Comparing the situation in NK to USA is so over the top.

Of course it was hyperbolic. But I wasn't comparing the situations, you did. I merely compared both leaders.

― Le Bateau Ivre, Tuesday, August 8, 2017 6:03 PM (three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

You're right, I misunderstood your post. Sorry about that. I agree with the comparison.

Is there a good article somewhere about the sanctions imposed over the years? It feels like they impose new sanctions every single time. There must come a point where new sanctions aren't possible anymore because everything's 100% sanctioned?

xp np flappy. Just meant two seemingly alike characters - huge ego, driven by desire to WIN - etc seems more dangerous than with any previous US president.

so NK just threatened to fire missiles at guam?

tbf Not sure how any admin would or should handle this?

xpost

no idea how serious they are about guam, but part of the threat must be to provoke trump

it's cool that our representative in this situation is a fucking child

xpost Good luck with that, the man is like cold iron!

xp to Josh: Sure, but it starts with choosing your words wisely. Trump is unable/unwilling to do this.

I miss the old Trump, the "nukes are... kind of the end of the ballgame, if you know what I mean" Trump.

Trump's not interested in de-escalation, his interest lies in showing the world that he's the toughest one out there. KJU is threatening this position, so he'll one up it. "Fire and fury" ffs.

I don't necessarily agree, at least w/r/t nukes. Then again going on his past statements is not that useful.

^ that is a real quote btw, from after he won the election. dude does not want nuclear war, and i don't think would do it just to show the world how tough he is. that was the MOAB. i think he understands the severity of nuclear war. but - under pressure, in a desperate situation - that could change very quickly.

fighting w/ NK is meant to pacify the US, not the world imo

How to deal with this? Not too hard, except it requires a graceful pivot, which is always hard for us.

First, I would accept that NK will become a nuclear-missile capable nation. It is a done deal. They've resisted all efforts to knock them off that track and now they are almost there, despite every effort to dissuade them or punish them. It's over.

Then I would negotiate with them to discover what the fuck they want anyway. If it is simply "respect", then that can be simulated without too much trouble. If it is an easing of sanctions, then get them to sign some non-aggression language in exchange and let SK take the lead in establishing some kind of détente.

But Trump would never do what I suggest above.

i think he understands the severity of nuclear war

I honestly, 100%, do not believe he does.

Then I would negotiate with them to discover what the fuck they want anyway. If it is simply "respect", then that can be simulated without too much trouble. If it is an easing of sanctions, then get them to sign some non-aggression language in exchange and let SK take the lead in establishing some kind of détente.

what they want is the US to leave SK and reunification

If it's taken 60 years to get to this point, what's another 20 years of negotiation over reunification, give or take, going to harm?

i think he understands the severity of nuclear war

I honestly, 100%, do not believe he does.

― Le Bateau Ivre, Tuesday, August 8, 2017 6:32 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Every response he's given to questions about his opinions on nukes are extremely lukewarm, in line with what I posted. There's no way of knowing for sure, but I don't think he would use them flippantly like he did with the MOAB.

Asked a few times, but what happens if or when North Korea uses its nuclear power to demand things rather than to repel potential threats?

we turn them into a crater

time to rethink my bucketlist.

i think no one has answered because no one knows. if they threatened to launch a nuke unless seoul joined NK and paid allegiance to kim jong-un? and there was only a military solution, i guess someone (the US i imagine tho you could maybe see China doing something here?) would try to tactically take out NK nuclear sites (prob the US has the best technology here, tho i don't know how complete their intelligence is).

Maybe if every country fired all their weapons at once into North Korea - but only at the bad guys! -until nothing was left, maybe that will finally bring about world peace.

i'd like to think we wouldn't use nukes first but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

lol why would you think that

considering we're the only country that's actually done it

the world isn't the same as it was during ww2

otoh there is no precedent for destroying a nuclear program as sophisticated as NK's. iraqi and syrian nuclear ambitions were far more limited in scope during Operations Opera and Orchard.

The

The only a silver lining to any of this is knowing that it is ruining his golfing vacation.

Then again, he is such a lunatic moron maybe it's not.

my real concern is trump preemptively executing a "counter-attack" based on a false alarm. hopefully someone with some sense has ensured that the ultimate decision wouldn't be left to trump

what happens if or when North Korea uses its nuclear power to demand things rather than to repel potential threats?

Then they will discover what every other nuclear nation knows quite well, which is, that you can't actually use them without a retaliatory strike your nation could not survive. Which tends to limit their usefulness as anything other than as a defensive shield. This does ensure a kind of power, but not the power to make excessive demands on the basis of threatening to use them offensively.

Considering how the GOP reacted to the Iran Nuclear Deal, how they campaigned on it, I have no hope the current administration will go for a sound diplomatic solution.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TcbU5jAavw

Because of how nukes play out in reality, your threat to use nukes offensively against a nation under the US umbrella is either a bluff, which will be called, or else a death warrant for your nation. No other options. NK is nowhere near able to invoke MAD, because they have too small an arsenal, so it would simply be AD.

We really don't know what North Korea wants.

I mean, we suspect, or think we might know. But who can say if self-preservation truly is foremost on their agenda?