North Korea

Is there a good article somewhere about the sanctions imposed over the years? It feels like they impose new sanctions every single time. There must come a point where new sanctions aren't possible anymore because everything's 100% sanctioned?

xp np flappy. Just meant two seemingly alike characters - huge ego, driven by desire to WIN - etc seems more dangerous than with any previous US president.

so NK just threatened to fire missiles at guam?

tbf Not sure how any admin would or should handle this?

xpost

no idea how serious they are about guam, but part of the threat must be to provoke trump

it's cool that our representative in this situation is a fucking child

xpost Good luck with that, the man is like cold iron!

xp to Josh: Sure, but it starts with choosing your words wisely. Trump is unable/unwilling to do this.

I miss the old Trump, the "nukes are... kind of the end of the ballgame, if you know what I mean" Trump.

Trump's not interested in de-escalation, his interest lies in showing the world that he's the toughest one out there. KJU is threatening this position, so he'll one up it. "Fire and fury" ffs.

I don't necessarily agree, at least w/r/t nukes. Then again going on his past statements is not that useful.

^ that is a real quote btw, from after he won the election. dude does not want nuclear war, and i don't think would do it just to show the world how tough he is. that was the MOAB. i think he understands the severity of nuclear war. but - under pressure, in a desperate situation - that could change very quickly.

fighting w/ NK is meant to pacify the US, not the world imo

How to deal with this? Not too hard, except it requires a graceful pivot, which is always hard for us.

First, I would accept that NK will become a nuclear-missile capable nation. It is a done deal. They've resisted all efforts to knock them off that track and now they are almost there, despite every effort to dissuade them or punish them. It's over.

Then I would negotiate with them to discover what the fuck they want anyway. If it is simply "respect", then that can be simulated without too much trouble. If it is an easing of sanctions, then get them to sign some non-aggression language in exchange and let SK take the lead in establishing some kind of détente.

But Trump would never do what I suggest above.

i think he understands the severity of nuclear war

I honestly, 100%, do not believe he does.

Then I would negotiate with them to discover what the fuck they want anyway. If it is simply "respect", then that can be simulated without too much trouble. If it is an easing of sanctions, then get them to sign some non-aggression language in exchange and let SK take the lead in establishing some kind of détente.

what they want is the US to leave SK and reunification

If it's taken 60 years to get to this point, what's another 20 years of negotiation over reunification, give or take, going to harm?

i think he understands the severity of nuclear war

I honestly, 100%, do not believe he does.

― Le Bateau Ivre, Tuesday, August 8, 2017 6:32 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Every response he's given to questions about his opinions on nukes are extremely lukewarm, in line with what I posted. There's no way of knowing for sure, but I don't think he would use them flippantly like he did with the MOAB.

Asked a few times, but what happens if or when North Korea uses its nuclear power to demand things rather than to repel potential threats?

we turn them into a crater

time to rethink my bucketlist.

i think no one has answered because no one knows. if they threatened to launch a nuke unless seoul joined NK and paid allegiance to kim jong-un? and there was only a military solution, i guess someone (the US i imagine tho you could maybe see China doing something here?) would try to tactically take out NK nuclear sites (prob the US has the best technology here, tho i don't know how complete their intelligence is).

Maybe if every country fired all their weapons at once into North Korea - but only at the bad guys! -until nothing was left, maybe that will finally bring about world peace.

i'd like to think we wouldn't use nukes first but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

lol why would you think that

considering we're the only country that's actually done it

the world isn't the same as it was during ww2

otoh there is no precedent for destroying a nuclear program as sophisticated as NK's. iraqi and syrian nuclear ambitions were far more limited in scope during Operations Opera and Orchard.

The

The only a silver lining to any of this is knowing that it is ruining his golfing vacation.

Then again, he is such a lunatic moron maybe it's not.

my real concern is trump preemptively executing a "counter-attack" based on a false alarm. hopefully someone with some sense has ensured that the ultimate decision wouldn't be left to trump

what happens if or when North Korea uses its nuclear power to demand things rather than to repel potential threats?

Then they will discover what every other nuclear nation knows quite well, which is, that you can't actually use them without a retaliatory strike your nation could not survive. Which tends to limit their usefulness as anything other than as a defensive shield. This does ensure a kind of power, but not the power to make excessive demands on the basis of threatening to use them offensively.

Considering how the GOP reacted to the Iran Nuclear Deal, how they campaigned on it, I have no hope the current administration will go for a sound diplomatic solution.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TcbU5jAavw

Because of how nukes play out in reality, your threat to use nukes offensively against a nation under the US umbrella is either a bluff, which will be called, or else a death warrant for your nation. No other options. NK is nowhere near able to invoke MAD, because they have too small an arsenal, so it would simply be AD.

We really don't know what North Korea wants.

I mean, we suspect, or think we might know. But who can say if self-preservation truly is foremost on their agenda?

official KPA statement: http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1sq3j78

^^^via voice of america's bureau chief steve herman, assuming he's a reliable vector (kcna don't allowing linking to their own website apparently)

I would literally rather have anybody else in charge of our military at this point. please speed up the impeachment train

my real concern is trump preemptively executing a "counter-attack" based on a false alarm. hopefully someone with some sense has ensured that the ultimate decision wouldn't be left to trump

― Karl Malone, Tuesday, August 8, 2017 6:45 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this is my biggest worry, too. especially if it's not a total annihilation and they are somehow able to retaliate.

seems like Kelly & McMaster are actually in charge, but I believe that Trump has the nuclear codes. Don't know what mechanisms are in place to stop him if his decision is deemed irresponsible.

im sure there is a way to distract him.

I mean it's not like they just hit a bright red button and up they go, it's an involved procedure, but then you remember the Able Archer incident in 1983 and that small sliver of confidence leaves

My own concern is that Trump initiates some kind of 'special forces' op inside NK, initiating a fairly rapid series of escalations that neither side feels able to back down from. Kim would strike back, because NK has always embraced the idea the best defense is a good offense, and Trump, because he is an insecure jerk who thinks power is just the ability to cause pain to your enemy.

exactly. we're fucked

trump himself isn't going to put together a special forces op. he doesn't know anything about anything. he could ask mcmaster to come up with a special ops plan but assuming he's a grown-up he'll come back with "we don't see a reasonable way forward."

the concern about nuclear launch is that he doesn't need any particular expertise to give that command

what seems more likely to me is that he follow through with what he said today which will create a huge power vacuum in the region that china will grab.

he will not follow through* my bad

Very much hoping for the "Trump backs down" scenario.

Useful thread

So it's 9:40 a.m. in Seoul, and still no real chatter about either NK nuke or Trump's "fire and fury." Zilch.

— T.K. of AAK! (@AskAKorean) August 9, 2017