North Korea

there was definitely a fear of dirty bombs after 9/11, but it wasn't two countries taunting each other with, as others have said, a very high chance of a horribly tragic misunderstanding or fuckup where Trump or Un overreacts or says the wrong thing and then we're all dead.

*with nuclear ICBMs

during those 67 years, our presidents have been truman, eisenhower, jfk, lbj, nixon, ford, carter, reagan, bush, clinton, gwb, and obama. say what you want about any of them, but i can't imagine any of them being so dumb that they accidentally escalate nuclear tensions out of sheer ineptitude. i hate the shit out of gwb but i would rather have him calling the shots in this situation than trump, like 100000x more. trump is not only completely out of his league, but he doesn't know enough to just stfu and defer to others. so that makes a lot of people here extremely nervous, i think.

i wrote something and it didn't go through. but basically: post-korean war all of those guys did misguided things and even dumb things (lbj losing a ship and crew at a time of high tensions, nixon losing a plane and giving the order to ready a nuclear strike while blackout drunk, gerald ford nearly going to war over dmz landscaping, gwb shredding agreements + axis of evil), at much more dangerous times, when the u.s. had fewer ways to actually talk to north korea, and strained relationships with the prc and russia, and north korea was a stronger military and industrial power compared to its neighbors, more evil guys were in charge of american foreign policy. trump is much like his predecessors in that... he makes bellicose statements for domestic political reasons but mostly pursues sanctions and negotiations because the status quo is fine. i think everything is fine, guys.

considering your recent prognostication record itt that somehow makes me feel worse

post-korean war all of those guys did misguided things and even dumb things (lbj losing a ship and crew at a time of high tensions, nixon losing a plane and giving the order to ready a nuclear strike while blackout drunk, gerald ford nearly going to war over dmz landscaping, gwb shredding agreements + axis of evil)

so you're saying that people who were much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much smarter than trump made very bad decisions (although i'm not sure that lbj was the captain of that ship) that almost led to catastrophe, and that's an argument that trump will be fine?

Fortunately for us and for the world, Donald Trump has a clearly thought out and well enunciated position on the threat of nuclear war. Here it is, in full:

Look, having nuclear — my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, OK, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart — you know, if you’re a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, OK, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I’m one of the smartest people anywhere in the world — it’s true! — but when you’re a conservative Republican they try — oh, do they do a number — that’s why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune — you know I have to give my life credentials all the time, because we’re a little disadvantaged — but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me — it would have been so easy, and it’s not as important as these lives are — nuclear is powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what’s going to happen and he was right, who'd have thought?

at least when if it comes time to enter the nuclear codes, trump will just kind of mash at the keypad with his fist and probably fail the password 3 times in a row, prompting a reset

i haven't followed trump closely enough but i have to think it will go about as it did on every major issue: "i'll fix it" -> "this is tough. turns out it's really complicated. i'm putting whoever in charge of it" -> move on to the next thing and things continue as they always do, behind the scenes.

i live in a city within easy range of a north korean strike (a couple hundred kilometers away! according to alex jones) so i hope i'm right on this one.

xposts

sorry for wine drunk, i know that you also made the argument that there are more bureaucratic buffers in place today to prevent the worst from happening than there were before - "when the u.s. had fewer ways to actually talk to north korea, and strained relationships with the prc and russia, and north korea was a stronger military and industrial power compared to its neighbors, more evil guys were in charge of american foreign policy"

but...i'm not convinced of that. are we chatting with NK all the time now? we don't even have an ambassador to south korea, i doubt we're skyping with NK. the relationships with china and russia seem to be strained at the moment, to say the least. and i don't disagree that many of our foreign policy leaders have been straight up evil, but i'm not sure how untrue that is of now, either. one could argue about the relative sanity of people like mcmasters, but how much of that is counterbalanced by trump listening to people like bannon, kushner, miller, etc? and most importantly, in the past NK didn't have ICBMs and warheads capable of reaching the US. that fundamentally alters the situation and intensifies the decisions that are made.

btw all of that isn't an argument to sell your belongings and fuck in the streets or whatever. but i don't think it makes sense to just say everything's fine and forget about it either

this thread has way too much panic imho (note, at least some is okay) and also way too much troping on the ~~~inscrutable~~~ and irrational, mysterious, inexplicable north korean government/people. who knows what they're capable of, these blind and brainwashed puppets and their wacky leaders who do things totally at random for no reason!!?!!... probably not what anybody itt is going for, but it's there and it's a problem imo not just because it's offensive but because it's hilariously ironic. rational actors would probably not structure their worldview around a 'team america' caricature - could lead one into trouble! seems fitting that the awful old threat title still lives on in the bookmark.

when you intentionally gut the diplomatic apparatus and all you have around you are three generals, a dipshit son-in-law and a fanatic who did some time in the Navy as an unremarkable officer, and you're a fucking incompetent yourself, well, pardon me for hoping that those three generals (the "deep state") are keeping us from an SSBN annihilating millions of people and setting off Mad Max shit all over the region and probably beyond

Its odd to think of chummy US and soviet union sharing north korea after ww2 - too bad they couldn't unite the country then and we never would have had all this later - but it's another one of those things that has come back to bite USA in its ass

when will the "MacArthur was right" spin start

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/09/the-game-is-over-and-north-korea-has-won/

"Seoul, Tokyo and New York" - one of those is very much not like the others (and considerably beyond anything I've heard NK is capable of)

yes some of that is a bit "see I was right, I've been right all along"

"Talk to North Korea" is obviously not something the US is going to do anytime in the next couple of years, so it will fall to the Very Brave Strong and Good Putin to save the day, I'm sure.

My understanding is that barely anyone has met with or visited the current North Korean regime.

Dennis Rodman, iirc.

Seriously, like him, vp of China, vp of Cuba may be it!

NK has full diplomatic relations with China, Russia, India and others. Kim doesn't get out much but they send senior diplomats all over the world.

I had just read this:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/10/world/asia/kim-jong-un-north-korea-nuclear.html

His ultimate motives, like many details of his life, are uncertain. Since taking power, Mr. Kim has yet to travel abroad or host a visit from another head of state. Only a few people outside North Korea have been allowed to meet him, among them the former basketball star Dennis Rodman, a Japanese sushi chef and the vice presidents of Cuba and China.

"We consider the U.S. no more than a lump which we can beat to a jelly any time"

https://kcnawatch.co/newstream/1502445795-50558923/preventive-war-is-not-privileged-option-for-u-s/

(links are not endorsements)

There's speculation that he went to China once - but China has denied it. It's not a one-man-band, though, the Foreign Minister, Minister for External Relations, etc, travel fairly widely.

The US apparently tried to pressure China into banning the NK representative from attending a major event in Beijing (the Belt and Road Summit) earlier this year - unsuccessfully.

also speculation he had a western education (possibly swiss)

Liebefeld-Steinhölzli Schule, to be precise (but still unconfirmed and speculative)

I dunno, if he can order assassinations and demand purges and stuff like that, I'm not sure how worthwhile his proxies ultimately are. It's remarkable, regardless, how little anyone knows, like that he apparently has two kids and simple things like that.

Trump should go over there and talk to him

Beyond bluster, US, NKorea in regular contact: https://apnews.com/686ac7c761694b28b67793a1d8297145?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP

^^^not really a surprise (or shouldn't be)

Been wondering if Bill Richardson is still communicating behind the scenes, as he's done for so long with North Korea.

i'm just gonna go ahead and pretend that he is so i can get through today without going insane

we should all tweet pleas at dennis rodman today

many xps

i just want to say that the u.s. talks to north korea, obv not the same way they talk to other states but still. there have been fairly direct links, diplomats visiting pyongyang, diplomats talking to north korean staff at the u.n. / links through china and e.u. (sweden handles u.s. consular issues in north korea) diplomats, track ii talks, leading to confirming that warmbier was dead.

north korea it is a mystery kinda but it's not like there's a dome over it and nobody comes or goes, nothing gets in or out.... you can even go there! (unless you're south korean, i suppose, and american, after september 1). once you get below superficial, the amount of material mostly stuck in specialist or academic or foreign language works on north korea, detailing how say the foreign policy or like womens mobilization squads digging ditches near the dmz or regime heavyweights' take on increasing marketization, whatever--it's impressive.

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/new-sanctions-have-sparked-china-north-korea-diplomatic-row

Trump to Dennis Rodman WE NEED YOU NOW

we should all tweet pleas at dennis rodman today

― global tetrahedron, Friday, August 11, 2017 10:47 AM (three hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yessssss

http://www.trbimg.com/img-5942a5b4/turbine/la-et-jc-rodman-trump-north-korea-20170615

According to Pauly Shore (ymmv), he's talked to Dennis Rodman and apparently KJU loves Trump - maybe he's just playing hard to get.

i could honestly see them being p good chums in another context

absolutely - they've got a ton in common

otm they would get along great i feel

i think it's sort of inaccurate to say that we don't know what north korea wants. three huge military and economic powers messing around on its borders, it wants to not be rolled over and occupied. the way north korea is being discussed here, it seems to follow the narrative of the american right, which has overblown the threat of north korea to the united states and imagines the kim regime as mentally ill stalinists that hate america for no reason.

this thread has way too much panic imho (note, at least some is okay) and also way too much troping on the ~~~inscrutable~~~ and irrational, mysterious, inexplicable north korean government/people. who knows what they're capable of, these blind and brainwashed puppets and their wacky leaders who do things totally at random for no reason!!?!!... probably not what anybody itt is going for, but it's there and it's a problem imo not just because it's offensive but because it's hilariously ironic. rational actors would probably not structure their worldview around a 'team america' caricature - could lead one into trouble! seems fitting that the awful old threat title still lives on in the bookmark.

I so do not get this whole current hysteria. NK has nuclear ICBMs. We've had them for decades. NK has made no threats to be an aggressor; all have been in name of self-defense. They haven't invaded anyone. They don't have Nazi-esque rhetoric about ethnic cleansing or starting a global takeover. So what exactly is the threat? Leave them be, apply diplomatic pressure and sanctions for them being naughty lil boys or whatever, ok. What am I missing here? Have they threatened to attack SK?? All I've seen is along the lines of "we will not be pushed around and we will defend ourselves if attacked". US has invaded more countries than they have. They view us as evil imperialists and therefore need means (ie nukes) to deter us from fucking with them, as we are prone to do around the globe to those we don't cotton to. Why does the "land of the brave" freak out over something that NKers have been dealing with for 60 yrs or so?

It's not fear of NK, its fear of possible Trump reaction and the literal/figurative fallout from his decision.

yes I have that fear, as I presume everyone else here does. That's a rational one to have. But LOTS of people are scared of NK. Trump supporters for example are scared of NK, not Trump.

odds of a NK first-strike anywhere seem unfounded. odds of Trump going off his rocker and pre-emptively doing some shit in order to make himself look like a big boy are a little too close for comfort imo.

otm - especially after China said they would fuck NK up if they attacked Guam.

right. If you're truly concerned about NK attacking, why would you even consider doing the one thing that is virtually guaranteed to get them to strike out?? If you're worried about a snake you see biting you, you don't go over to it and try to kill it. You ignore it and walk the fuck away.

i could honestly see them being p good chums in another context

also I've been saying this is a best-case scenario for months. it would be his "only nixon could go to China" moment. problem is he is a moron.

I guess part of the problem is USA is still in love with its military might, so it's that guy who thinks he can easily kill the snake w/o it biting him.