Mr. Biagini, Mr. Joe Biagini: The 2017 Toronto Blue Jays

We hear about this every TV broadcast in Toronto, but some notes on Ryan Goins' serendipitous RBI total (hit his second grand slam last night). He mostly hits 8th or 9th in the lineup, has just under 400 AB, and is hitting .228 with 8 HR. He's basically a terrible hitter--.225/.273/.330 lifetime--but will end up with 60-65 RBI this year.

Men On: 170 AB, .288/.330/.459
RISP: 95 AB, .337/.376/.558
Bases Loaded: 14 AB, .714/.688/1.214 (20 RBI)

Great send-off for Bautista: popped up in his final AB, but numerous standing ovations throughout the day, and he got to do the extended trot in, hugging every player along the way, when Gibbons sent out a defensive replacement in the bottom of the 9th.

Jose's 9th-inning exit:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xseb-868_pg

Great moment.

I'm glad no one--Bautista, the other players (who let him take the field alone before the game), Gibbons--tried to keep up the pretense that he might be back next year. Bautista paid lip service to that idea post-game, but not in any serious way.

It's better left unsaid, and no team ever comes out and says that a player definitely won't be back.

It's too bad that in a different era, a player like him could hang around a bit longer as a power threat off the bench, getting 150 at bats per year. But with teams carrying 12 pitchers these days nobody has a bench anymore.

I think Teoscar hitting as well as he has the last few weeks has also really driven home the idea that Bautista’s time here is over.

he's unfortunately been Albert Pujols-level bad this year, too

which i guess at one point was a sentence i never thought i'd type

Donaldson has homered his first two times up against Sale tonight. The announcers said his 23 since the break is the most in either league--doesn't sound quite right (I would have thought Stanton has more than that).

How's this for a small-sample hot streak: his last five road games, Donaldson's 14 for 19 with 8 HR.

lol yeah Stanton has 31

One of the great finishes in team history: we spend the last day of the season not in last.

(To be clear, every single other day we were.)

We waited until the last minute with them last year too!

We beat out Baltimore on the last day of the season again!

So it was almost like making the playoffs ... almost.

The unplayoffs.

Apologize for unplayoff

Still basking in the wild success of the Troy Tulowitzki acquisition, the Jays are now thinking about Carlos Gonzalez.

Career:
Home - .323/.383/.593
Away - .252/.308/.427

2017:
Home - .323/.403/.520
Away - .203/.274/.332

Put aside whatever I've said about Arenado or Blackwell--at least those guys are in or even just entering their prime. The idea of investing in Colorado hitters past their prime falls somewhere between dubious and doomed.

Somewhere between dubious and doomed: The 2018 Toronto Blue Jays

That's good! Set it up.

By the way, by "Blackwell," I meant famed arbiter of fashion Mr. Blackwell, currently enjoying a comeback in Colorado.

Should they keep Donaldson, y/n.

I mean the AL is lost for the foreseeable future.

I'm not completely buying in on that. Last year's Stanton trade was the Sale trade, and the Red Sox were going to have by far the best rotation in the league. Guys get injured or underperform, stuff happens. The Jays have almost nobody signed past next year, they can easily sign Donaldson and keep adding pieces.

https://cdn.fangraphs.com/tht/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Pic-01B.png

vlad jr is gonna be so good

And there’s Bo too, not far away. 2021 cant come soon enough.

The Indians, Yankees, Royals, and Dodgers have had some success the last few years by loading up on bullpen arms and using a five-inning strategy. We're going to try the same things with spare-parts middle infielders. (Solarte looks pretty good, I guess.)

I doubt any of our new infielders can pitch as well as Goins tho. We’re fucked.

Is the Donaldson signing a wait-and-see move? Enough money that, with those two guys on their way, he'll consider resigning if they look competitive a year from now (if the Jays still want him, that is)?

That wasn’t an extension - they just came to an agreement to avoid arbitration.

I understood that, what I meant was that by avoiding arbitration they maintain a good-faith relationship, and there's at least a chance Donaldson will resign next year if Donaldson's still playing well and the prospects for 2019 look good. (Whereas an arbitration hearing ensures he leaves after this year.)

It's the typical running in place non-move that Jays management excels at. If they trade him now then it's a clear sign that they're punting the season but the same time they don't want to sign him to an extension and commit to being competitive. Gord Ash would have been proud.

I think most of the arb eligible guys have managed to come to an agreement tho, haven’t they?

And, in regards to running in place - in this case, I’m ok with it. I feel like they’re a league average corner outfielder and a 5th starter away from having a shot at the wildcard. They are going to have to decide at the deadline this year - are they competitive - or are they selling (Donaldson). Then they can suck for two years until the Tulo and Martin contracts are up, which coincides with Vlad and Dante Jrs being ready - ideally Sanchez and/or Stroman are extended and they can plug whatever holes we have with FAs in 21/22.

i think they ought to trade him now. he's a great player but he's also 32, and whoever signs him as a free agent is going to be paying for age 33-whatever. he also happens to play vlad jr's position.

zips projects the jays winning 83 games and being the first team out of the playoffs (albeit five games behind the second-wildcard angels). that's pretty good and certainly within the margin of error, so it would be hard to just punt on 2018. but if they could get a decent return on donaldson i think it still would be worth it.

on a completely different note: http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/11/doug-ault-and-the-triumph-of-joy

wow at all the snow on the field in that video!

sometimes I'm astonished at what teams will part with at the deadline for a rental, partial-season player. tho the market for a 3b would be more limited than OF or P, i still like their odds of getting a good return, should they move him in August.

that, and knowing what i know about Jays (non-hardcore) fans – dealing him in the offseason would cause a minor revolt. would be a much easier sell if they're having a repeat of 2017.

Will have to read that Doug Ault piece. I was sitting in Mr. Lightfoot's grade 11 history class, with three or four of us listening to a transistor radio (with his okay).

All of last year's great teams had, and still have, a lot of depth. The Jays don't have much depth, especially on offense. They might luck into a WC spot if everything goes right, but that doesn't happen most years.

If there was ever a year for throwing in the towel, it's this year. Trade Donaldson, get Sanchez healthy again, commit to Stroman, get in on next year's historically great batch of free agents, and get Vlad and Dante Jrs ready. We could have a kick ass team in 2019-2020. Instead they'll hedge their bets and fall behind teams that stuck to their plan all along.

I don’t think they’ll be able to spend much until Martin and Tulo are gone in 20/21

As I see it there is three teams that will fight for the wild card spot: Twins, Angels and Jays. That's a low amount of odds to get in a one play-off game against either the Red Sox and the Yankees. It does not seem really worth it.

IT IS WORTH IT WE HAVE SO LITTLE HERE!

Also maybe I should do a new thread...

I wonder if we could have gotten McCutchen. The two guys San Francisco gave up look pretty good. Obviously, I wouldn't want the Jays to give up Jesus or Godot.

Anyway, we are making moves:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/22110273/toronto-blue-jays-announce-plans-extended-protective-netting-rogers-centre

They did... signed Granderson.

They've plugged the 25 HR/.220 hole left by Bautista.

Sooner or later the Jays front office is going to learn that every cheap player they sign on a flier doesn't always pan out.

But it might take another ten years of mediocrity for that to happen.